Back From Break

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35. Then....it's on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

492 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

Monkey Boy

MODERATOR

Though I'm sure you think I'm an idiot, I'm certainly not foolish enough to post pictures of valuables on the internet. Just ask any internet security expert whether or not that's a good idea. So, sorry, no pictures for you. You'll just have to go back to pestering Harvey Organ every day, instead.

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

@Green Lantern

I'm not asking for the world.

I'm simply asking for something that a lots of other "PM stackers" have done, in short time, with little effort. e.g.

It would go a long way to boost credibility and faith as "The Turds" have gotten so bad that he has become a contrarian indicator.

It's a simple question, which should have a simple answer. The fact that something so simple isn't forth-coming, or desperately disparaged/attacked by "the followers" raises suspicions even further. All the signs of cult.

I'd like to find one of these gold/silver celebrities who actually proves they put their money where their mouth is... instead, they all just seem to be the PR and Marketing firms for PM miners and retailers who wish to sell their wares.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Silver OI

MODERATOR

Fell just 900 contracts on the $1.42 selloff yesterday. 2300 contracts came out of the Mar13 but 1200 went back into the May13. Very little OI reduction progress for The Bad Guys.

New CoT in 10 minutes. Stand by...

Byzantium's picture

@ FunkyMonkeyBoy

taking your request at face value, maybe I can help you better understand what this site is about.

There was a British comedy from 40 yrs ago called 'Carry on Screaming.'

In this film, a police inspector, aided by his trusty assistant called Slowbottom, are investigating the scene of a disappearance of a young woman in some woods; the sixth disappearance in those same woods.

The inspector draws on his pipe, lost in some profound thinking, and then his eyes light up in a moment of pure inspiration.  "Slowbottom, now lets just stop and tie this altogether. I think, I think, I think, that these disappearances, might be connected."

"Good God" says Slowbottom, "Surely not! It can't be, can it Sir?"

Substitute those disappearances with the shenanigans on the comex, and the bumbling police for the MSM and regulators, and you now see the world the way that we do. If you don't trust your lying eyes, and in addition if you want to defame Turd as some kind of untrustworthy cult leader, then you are on the wrong blog. Really.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother's picture

tf has replied to monkey

tf has replied to monkey boy.

no need for anyone else to and encourage this stuff.

please all - just pay no attention to his posts and sooner or later it goes away..

Turd Ferguson's picture

Mr Monkey

MODERATOR

If you persist in adding nothing to the site and continue to go about your business defaming us and hijacking threads, I will be happy to close your "account" so that you might be encouraged to move along.

Just let me know what you would prefer.

TreeTop Dweller's picture

With Tears in My Eyes

Cutting out of here early today, need to head home and hug and kiss my kids...

Just been informed that a friend lost her niece in the shooting incident.

Freaking, she was only 5 years old!

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

@Turd Ferguson. As expected.

Well, it was a fair question asked in a reasonable way i thought. But the response you gave is the response i thought i'd get unfortunately. How convenient, the old "id love too, but i can't for X spurious reason. Now do as i say."

I think a high school teenager these days has enough savvy and knowledge about them to be able to post a video of their stack without it being traceable to location. You don't seem to have a problem or worry about posting videos doing it when you're promoting PMs though?

Not the response a critical thinking mind should be content with. Looks like my search continues for a gold/silver celebrity who isn't just another PR and Marketing arm of PM Miners and retailers...

... I'm really not happy about being in the same boat as the likes of the gold/silver celebrities and their followers.

Cononish1314's picture

PaperJunkieMonkey

should stay. We're in the mood to knock someone around. And there'll be more days like this.

القراع عصفور's picture

anyone notice

that daveyboy and funky monkey both have been members for 1 year 25 weeks.  there are a few others too.  it's the same game - multiple aliases.  same M.O. as the DT pestilence we suffered through this summer.

i doubt this is coincidence.  i don't have time to find the others, but i noticed this before, and did not write down all the names.

Turd - you should check into clusters like this since you are good at pattern recognition.

Tree Top - you do just that. 

Groaner - you are right.  but, all i deserve to inherit is 40 acres, with decent water.  i am no saint.  i would be most gracious, at that.

opalboy's picture

No, FMB

you are branded as a troll because you only attack, so troll or idiot take you're pick!

http://trololololololololololo.com/

ggnewmex's picture

Christmas

Able to purchase Christmas gifts for the kids at a discount!!

thank you!!!

ggnewmex's picture

Thanks to

Englehard and JohnsonMatthey

ag1969's picture

LMFAO

I wonder if FMB has ever had the sense to ask the Government/Federal Reserve to prove that they have their stack! 

Turd proving he has his stack is a national security issue and he does not have a room where we can actually view the stack.  His stack was audited once.  The auditor added up all the transactions Turd had scribbled in his notebook and the auditor confirmed that his stack was good. 

When my currency says "Turderal Reserve Notes" at the top, I will demand proof!

opalboy's picture

wow one year and 25 weeks

that sounds like maybe july or aug 2011. interesting

Grublux's picture

Some guys just wanna

see another guys sizable stack

gdog's picture

@ TheGreatKD

Try Google Chrome here:

https://www.google.com/intl/en/chrome/browser/

If you're still having trouble w/ videos it's likely your flash player or shockwave.  You can google both of those to get the latest software from adobe.

alan2102's picture

funky

FunkyMonkey:  You're behaving like a funky monkey, to put it politely. Or less politely, like an idiot and a troll.  Posting a vid of a stack means NOTHING.  It would tell you NOTHING. It is an idiotic request. 

Please STFU, and stop embarrassing yourself.

cris's picture

$85 billion a month in unsterilized QE

Is equal to giving every man, woman and child in the USA $283 a month.

What would YOU do with that money?

why are the bankers more deserving of this money?

Groaner's picture

Note this on what Obama is sayiing.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-action-needed-to-stop-mass-shootings-2012-12-14?link=MW_home_latest_news

They will probably use this incident to pass more laws to "Protect us from terrorist ploy" and take away more freedoms.

Doubt if they really do have our well fare in mind.. 

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

@alan2102

"Posting a vid of a stack means NOTHING.  It would tell you NOTHING. It is an idiotic request."

What nonsense is this? Yes, it does, it proves it actually exists and "Turd" more than likely puts his money where his mouth is. It goes a long way to bolster credibility... unfortunately, that doesn't look to be the case... just another PM pumper for the PM miners and PM retailers.

The responses here are abhorrent to the critical thinking mind. Look at yourselves and the way you respond to reasonable questions. You people really think you're "The smart money"? All signs say you're the "Dumb money" and "The smart money" has actually used you to distribute to.

القراع عصفور's picture

KD

also could be your video (display) driver.  they can just go bad, or get a virus.  these drivers have their own RAM, and can get infected.  many manufacturers a few years ago used a really crappy run of these drivers too.  they just aren't up to the task anymore.  sites like TFMR are pretty demanding on video drivers.

ggnewmex's picture

Mr Monkey

You made your point,

thank you

Bye, and have a wonderful Christmas

babaganoush2307's picture

Wow!

I go to lunch and out into the field for an hour, come back and there has been yet another mass shooting that in my opinion is even sicker than the batman shooting earlier this year!  broken heart Absolutely terrible, now I wonder how long till the gun control freaks come out again.  Eventually these fucking sociopaths are going to ruin gun ownership for the 30 million other gun owners that don't have the idea to run into a public and shoot up everyone.

Once again it does not look like there was any apparent reason for this.  I just don't understand why you would choose to kill innocent kids when benny, blyth, jamie, et al are still around....

Thoughts and prayers go out to the victims families heart

Cononish1314's picture

Posting photos of interesting things

Someone posted photos of Denise Milani and her "assets" in order to dupe an elderly professor into transporting drugz across a frontier.

Now we wouldn't want to do that sort of thing, would we?

Mudsharkbytes's picture

If anybody asks me to post a video of my stack…

…on the internet, I'm not going to do it either.

I guess that makes me a fraud too.

Really, this is about the most moronic troll I have ever encountered on this board.

In case you wondered, simian-lad, people with scruples and concern for their own well being keep the facts behind their stacks, be they big or small, to themselves.

Idiots with little common sense who think it's cool to brag post videos of their stack on the internet.  Wouldn't be surprised to find out some of them have been victims of burglaries.

Get a life, jeez.  With all the sad news today you'd think there were better ways to spend your time than trolling a metals site.

Byzantium's picture

@ ancient money, re secondary bond market

Thanks for the response.

Yes, that was my understanding, that once somebody starts dumping serious amounts of treasuries on the secondary market, that it could create a collapse in price, and defacto collapse the market for US debt, leaving the Fed on the hook for the entire lot.

I think that Gonzalo Lira's original piece, suggested that if holders of debt were seeking an exit, then he who panics first would panic best, and could trigger an avalanche for the rest.

In summary, I sought confirmation of my understanding that where the bond market is concerned, all eyes are on new issuance, when in fact the secondary market is at least as dangerous, if not more so, for the dollar.

TJeffson's picture

Turd - respectfully request

that you ban funkymonkeyboy.   Just for the safety of those that use this site so they aren't duped into posting pictures/videos of their stacks by people like him.    The guy is clearly just agitating and trying to goad people.   We don't need that crap here. 

fast mover's picture

@cris

Or every man, woman and child in the USA will owe the FED $283 per  month to pay the bill.

ancientmoney's picture

@treetopdweller, with tears . . .

So sorry to hear of your friend's niece.  And all the others.  I cannot fathom what malevolence must exist inside a human mind to do that to innocent children.

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