Back From Break

Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - 10:09am

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35.'s on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 14, 2012 - 2:20pm

Who cares what Turd's stack is

your investments are your personal descision. Take the information into consideration or don't.

Plus I would rather see Denise's stack again anytime.

No offense Turd

Dec 14, 2012 - 2:21pm

fellow truth seekers/seers

Excellent information filtering/pattern recon. going on here........

To fat willie....I agree with what you said but remember,there is always someone taking the other side honor amongst these types..... my spidey-senses went wild and I went ALL-IN in late 2008 with SLW........and I am even more confident now.....they will try to control the ascent so expect crazy volatility going forward.......FEAR...even among some hard-cores , shills galore in the MSM......ALL-IN BABY.........As a few seers have mentioned previously major power bull runs take as few as possible along for the ride, principally because of the gut-wrenching volatility prior.....sitting tight and calm after choosing wisely is hardest and a very few reap .....Thanks T.F for all that you do.....

God bless y'all....and prayers ESPECIALLY to all those directly affected by the events in CT.

Jimymac TF
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:22pm

Hand hold can be a thankless vocation

Don't think the Bill Murphy, Jim Sinclair, Ted Butler, to name a few of the earliest mentors haven't had their integrity slammed over these last fourteen to twenty years that I have followed them. It goes with the territory. This is much more civilized than the early Prodigy XAU or Kitco discussion board. Bill. Jim and Ted paved the road to Turdville with idiots and manipulative liars. The truth is there. Refuse to listen to the noise.

I have been on this last roller coaster since 1996, and did really well with the last bull in the seventies. I've seen this before and there is gains beyond belief and the winners will have "I told you so, written on the forehead, not by what they say, but by confidence, when to many are running after to few phyz.

Groaner tyberious
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:22pm


Funny, just needed to show the bankers pulling the stings from up top.

The Green Manalishi
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:23pm

22 more kids who'll never go to school, never get to fall in lov

22 more kids who'll never go to school, never get to fall in love, never get to be cool.

Dec 14, 2012 - 2:23pm

Harvesting Profits From Weak

Harvesting Profits From Weak Hands in the Silver Market / By Dr. Jeff Lewis / December 13, 2012

GUEST POST submitted by,

In financial market jargon, those investors described as having “weak hands” typically means that they cannot hold onto a position they have established for very long if it goes against them substantially.

This term is often used to contrast such investors to those with “deep pockets” who can instead afford to take deeper drawdowns in their portfolio before they feel the need to exit their positions.

Weak Hands Make for Easy Profits

The participation of individuals with weak hands in a market like silver’s are sometimes seen by the larger and more unscrupulous traders as providing the opportunity to make quick and easy profits.

This is especially effective if the weak handed traders’ stop loss levels can be reasonably deduced by having an understanding of how trading systems tend to operate based on technical analysis, for example.

Their large trading size and deeper pockets often allows the big market makers and players to temporarily push the market through key support or resistance levels in order to trigger the stop loss orders placed by smaller traders who cannot afford to run losing positions very long.

Some of these large traders are even working stop loss orders for weak handed clients, so they know exactly what level or levels need to trade in order for their contrary positions to earn extra profits when the stops are triggered. The conflict of interest in such situations seems considerable.

Characteristics of Silver Traders With Weak Hands

Weak handed traders tend to share a set of common characteristics. For example, many of them come into the silver market:

1. With an incorrect view of the fundamentals for silver and a lack of understanding of the price discovery mechanism.
2. Over-leveraged by using silver options and trading futures on a margin basis.
3. Having only entered the silver market during this past year and without having the advantage of being able to scale into their positions over the longer term at better prices.
4. Attempting to time the market in vain, while being hopelessly short sighted in terms of their memory of market events and past levels.
5. Underestimating the power of the manipulation used to keep the silver market at irrational price levels.
6. Only invested in silver derivatives and paper, rather than in the intrinsically valuable physical precious metal.

Weak Hands Get Burned Quickly

Unfortunately, the majority of weak handed silver investors will enter the market and get burned right away, often never to return.

One can only imagine the howling among the weak hands had the Dow suddenly dropped 200 points in one minute, just prior to the NYSE open. Fat finger allegations would be rampant, and cries to nullify and forbid algorithmic trading would be demanded.

In contrast, the oppressed silver market has heard only dead silence from the CFTC, which is now celebrating its fourth anniversary of doing nothing about the ongoing silver market manipulation that the regulatory commission has been repeatedly informed of.

What Do You Think?

Dec 14, 2012 - 2:25pm


Here you go.

Now enough with your transparent douchebaggery.

Dec 14, 2012 - 2:27pm

holiday gift

3 "tiers" First, i think the rampant commercialization of the holiday is horrible. 1. For those that i have been trying to reach/teach forever; a coin holder with pre '65 half, quarter, dime, real nickel and penny, and the same holder with "fake" version of same, chart from coinflation, chart of silver performance last decade, plus same v. Djia, s&p. Inflation v. Purchasing power of silver. 2. For those that i have reached, a nice shiny Canadian maple. 3. For those that are "engaged in the fight" a sbss coin in holder for carrying.

DayStar tyberious
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:33pm

RE: Question of the Day

Tyberious, you asked why the cartel defends silver above 35 so vigorously. I can hazard a guess. My guess is JPM has derivatives that it needs to protect, and silver prices above 35 gives painful consequences.


Dec 14, 2012 - 2:34pm


So sorry...but you must have missed "the new & improved" banksters' Christmas list!...

Did you not get the latest email blast?...

Bag Of Gold

Dec 14, 2012 - 2:35pm

It's Time To Arm Up Every Principle and Teacher

Mandatory gun training should be required of EVERY principle and teacher to stop this madness from ever repeating again and to protect the children.

18 children and 8 adults are dead because of the "no gun zone" law, another failed, stupid and deadly law. Criminals will always carry a gun regardless of the law, period.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the rabid gun control freaks will try to use this to further strip away gun rights from everyone but it is time for every parent, every principle and every teacher to demand they have the ultimate protection within their reach. If not, I bet you a dollar to a doughnut the schools will become lockdown mini-prisons where parents will not have immediate access to their children where the parents become the suspect.

And forget about the stupid buzz-in "security systems" too, the school buzzed the shooter in and besides that anyone can dovetail in behind someone else being buzzed in.

Dec 14, 2012 - 2:41pm

Day Star!

I really, really think that is it! Aside from WB, Bix, Max and maybe Murphy, no one else has come to that conclusion. It obviously must be cheaper or less expensive to hold up the derivatives complex by settling contracts in both Ag and FRN, then allowing Ag to go above 35.00 and blowing everything up!

Just my 2 pre 1982 pennies!

TheGreatKD brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:43pm

I'm sorry all

Only posted once a bout FireFox issue and it came up seven times. Something definitely wrong w my computer or connection. If this post comes up more than once I won't post again. Once again sorry my intention was to fix this problem not piss anyone off. Again if anyone knows how to fix problem with FireFox I would be greatly indebted. KD

Green Lantern
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:46pm

Could somebody PLEASE pass

Could somebody PLEASE pass the chips.

FunkyMonkeyBoy Pining 4 the Fjords
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:50pm

@Pining 4 the Fjords: Unquestioning sheep

Well, seems like we have cult here instead of critical thinking and questioning minds.

It's a pretty basic question of critical thinker to ask the "preacher" (ala "The Turd") for proof that they practice what they preach.

Others seem to have no problem, e.g:

Video unavailable

One thing I've noticed on the gold/silver celebrity blogs is that the followers seem to love to lap-up grand unprovable theories as if they were fact (i.e. COMEX empty), they even defend it and repeat it as if it were "fact" and even make big personal decisions on it (i.e. putting thousands in PMs) as well as encouraging others to do the same. They jump on anyone as "troll" who asks proof of simple things that should be easily provable (i.e. "The Turd", ala the preacher, proving he has a sizable stack of PMs).

Dec 14, 2012 - 2:51pm

Another 'Mad World'

I LOVE this version of 'Mad World' by Gary Jules ... It's the 'official' one, so maybe it is from the movie "Donny Darko'- haven't seen it...

But this music video is amazing.

It features some very unique, intricate cheoreography and a sweeping camera on a crane or high boom type of apparatus, and I think it was done in one take -- can't find a single cut in it! If you're the sensitive or artistic sort, and/or hated high school the visuals and music can really get under your skin, especially on a dreary December day.

Video unavailable
Groaner Nana
Dec 14, 2012 - 2:51pm

Arm everyone?

Do you really believe if everyone carried a gun that we would have peace?

I say lets have God decide and destroy all the Wicked people and leave behind those who are meek and obedient, who love God and their neighbor.

Hmm where have I heard that before?

PSALMS 37: 9 For evildoers themselves will be cut off,+

But those hoping in Jehovah are the ones that will possess the earth.+

10 And just a little while longer, and the wicked one will be no more;+

And you will certainly give attention to his place, and he will not be.+

11 But the meek ones themselves will possess the earth,+

And they will indeed find their exquisite delight in the abundance of peace.+

29 The righteous themselves will possess the earth,+

And they will reside forever upon it.+

ancientmoney Byzantium
Dec 14, 2012 - 3:03pm


You asked:

"Though the Fed funds the purchase of new debt (through their PD intermediaries) thereby keeping the price of debt low, there is also presumably a second price discovery mechanism in the secondary market. How does the Fed control that mechanism? "


Newly issued debt, which has a lower yield than the older debt, causes the older debt to be "worth more" to the holder. That is the key to a bond bull market. Once yields start to rise, the value of bonds with lower yields become worth less and less.

So, until newly issued bonds have a rising yield, it tends to keep everyone in place.

As discussed in the previous thread, however, a country like China, which has WAY too much U.S. debt in its reserves, knows they can never sell their higher-yielding debt into the open market without causing all yields to drop, eroding their own holdings' value. That is why they have continued to hold as the Fed has bought. As current-issue yields drop, older issues, with higher yields will see their values rise--on paper.

Once the bond market turns the other way, China will sell like everyone else, as the bond bull will be over, and interest rates will rise. The Fed MUST buy bonds to keep things together, for all kinds of reasons.

The Chinese could cause the stampede any time it chooses, by selling its bonds into the market, in order to buy gold, rice, wheat, silver, land, businesses, etc. It was Brodsky's (and others) premise that they are deferring that option in exchange for the right to buy the west's gold--or at least some portion of it.

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:03pm


Exclusive Firefox user for many years. That being said, I am using version 14 and don't consider any of the newer versions to be worth anything. With NoScript, Adblock Plus (disabled for version 15 and above), Better Privacy, and a couple more add-ins, you can browse more safely than IE, or the data collection arm of DHS...Google Chrome.

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:08pm



I believe Turd has already explained that his stack was lost in a boating accident. Deep sea cameras, etc would be required to film it. (An expensive and needless undertaking).

Sadly - many of us have had difficulty navigating the waters with our stacks.

And frankly - I don't need to see the stack of anyone else to decide whether to add more to my own. (Most of which was, of course, also lost in a maritime incident).

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:08pm

Turd's stack

Can someone photoshop Turd's face onto the picture of the Queen inspecting her stack?

Green Lantern
Dec 14, 2012 - 3:10pm


I don't care if Turd is sitting on piles of tootsie rolls and Willy Wonker bars. You buy the dip not because he says so. You buy, if you can, because you see what's going on AND you posses your own critical thinking skills. It's not about Turd. And if you need him to show you the money for you to be convinced, U don't get it. This is about doing what's right for you and your family.

Yes, I get it. People are pissed off that they haven't made much and trading these markets is impossible. And listening to somebody tell U to buy the dips, when U are low fiat gets old. I don't care if it is gold, silver, the miners, when shit is unbelievably on sale, and you have a few cents to rub together, you buy stuff when it is on sale.

If you do not think it is on sale, go to Paul Van Eden or go listen to Jeff Christian to feel good about yourself. Because Turd is only gonna make you feel bad when he suggests you do something that you don't believe. But I guarantee You'll feel worse when gold starts moving and you passed up on the opportunity because you were so worried about what other people do and couldn't think for yourself. Don't try to pin group thinking on Pining. Because most of the world doesn't believe they should do it. Most of us are here because we are the free thinkers.

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:10pm

What would it prove if

What would it prove if someone posted a picture of a big pile of shiny? Even a poor Scotch boy like me could do that.

Another example of neo-barbarism and the triumph of graphics over the written word.

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:11pm

Troll food- eat up, Monkeyboy

It is remarkably moronic of you to keep insisting on your farce of a question- nobody in their right mind would post a video of the gold and silver in their possession on the internet. Your examples above are idiots who are too brain-dead to understand that they just made themselves an obvious target for home invasion, nothing more than a big "find me through the magic of the internet and rob me" sign. Turd is not that dumb. Your insistence that if he ISN"T that dumb then he must be a fraud is so awkwardly pathetic that it's a joke.

If you are going to come in and troll around, at least put some effort into it, for crying out loud. You should be ashamed of this weak and embarrassingly illogical attempt. We have been trolled by the best around here- yours is minor league, frankly.

Try again- this time, try hard to imagine what a smart person would do, then do that.

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:12pm

RE: Arm Everyone @ Groaner

There is a huge difference between peace and protection. There are now 20 dead children said by some to be kindergartners.

And yes, I believe every principle and every teacher has the obligation to physically protect their students to the extent of being armed.

I do not believe it is God's intent to idly sit by allowing criminals to slaughter children.

Adults have to take responsibility to protect those who cannot protect themselves.

Ilya Repin
Dec 14, 2012 - 3:15pm
Jimymac FunkyMonkeyBoy
Dec 14, 2012 - 3:15pm

FMBoy Asking Turd to show his stuff is not

critical thinking. Your trying to set him up so you can rip him off. So that's my critical thought about you.

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:17pm

Monkey Boy

Though I'm sure you think I'm an idiot, I'm certainly not foolish enough to post pictures of valuables on the internet. Just ask any internet security expert whether or not that's a good idea. So, sorry, no pictures for you. You'll just have to go back to pestering Harvey Organ every day, instead.

FunkyMonkeyBoy Green Lantern
Dec 14, 2012 - 3:17pm

@Green Lantern

I'm not asking for the world.

I'm simply asking for something that a lots of other "PM stackers" have done, in short time, with little effort. e.g.

Great Australian Silver and Gold collection

It would go a long way to boost credibility and faith as "The Turds" have gotten so bad that he has become a contrarian indicator.

It's a simple question, which should have a simple answer. The fact that something so simple isn't forth-coming, or desperately disparaged/attacked by "the followers" raises suspicions even further. All the signs of cult.

I'd like to find one of these gold/silver celebrities who actually proves they put their money where their mouth is... instead, they all just seem to be the PR and Marketing firms for PM miners and retailers who wish to sell their wares.

Dec 14, 2012 - 3:19pm

Silver OI

Fell just 900 contracts on the $1.42 selloff yesterday. 2300 contracts came out of the Mar13 but 1200 went back into the May13. Very little OI reduction progress for The Bad Guys.

New CoT in 10 minutes. Stand by...


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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
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Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)