Back From Break

488
Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - 10:09am

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35. Then....it's on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  488 Comments

achmachat
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:33am

groaner

I actually would if my dealer was to lower the price to reflect the current spot price.

If the price stays this low until Tuesday, that might happen.

ag1969
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:35am

@ the circle

I think you may have a more successful outcome if you ask Obama for the money. You can get your Dad's shit for free if you got the EBT. I need to teach you newbies everything! Obama money man! It's where it's at.

The phone number to the White House is 202-456-1111. And don't come back on here saying that nobody was willing to help you. There is a high probability that this will work for you because it worked just fine for 47 million of your fellow countrymen who asked before you.

Best of luck to you circle, and Merry Christmas to you and your very lucky Dad, from all of us here in Turdville. Cheers!

Bulk Pogan
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:39am

Nigel-I'm a long-time lurker & new member

I cannot speak for others (obviously) but, in my own case, I've been reading TFMR for about a year now and putting any and all extra fiat into silver (mostly) and gold every chance I get. I *SO* appreciate all that I've learned from all of you and especially Turd that I simply believed that, at this "low point," it was time to join up and do what I might to bolster this community as best I can. My wife and are sure are not wealthy and we are trying to get a pair of daughters through college, but if we've learned nothing else; our currency is moving toward zero value and we've got to do *something* to protect ourselves. We've managed in a year to squirrel away a couple hundred ounces of Ag and a few fractional pieces of Au. I've even managed to get one daughter stacking as well and she's put away a few dozen ounces of Ag.

My own perspective mirrors to a large degree Katie Rose's. With degrees in agriculture and living where I do, I simply see how vulnerable our entire economy is to cheap, abundant diesel fuel. My concern is for when the $US fails to be the world's reserve currency/petrodollar and how that is going to affect food production and especially food distribution. Virtually everything that my community consumes is currently trucked in from hundreds of miles away. It wouldn't be necessary but it is. What will happen in this end of the great Keynesian experiment when we no longer can afford to produce and distribute food as cheaply as we have? I think a lot of folks (free *hit people, especially) are going to be up in arms and very hungry.

Obviously we are "prepping"...big time.

Consequently, for me, Ag/Au in hand is merely our hedge against our vulnerability to higher fuel prices. Forget wealth protection, we have no wealth to protect...besides our love and support for one another. A great day for us is when we see green for our metals and red for WTI or Brent prices. For us, metals are our survival hedge!

Bottom line? I don't think this is going to continue much longer. I suspect that it will heavily involve China, Russia and the many other BRIC nations that are currently signing bilateral trade agreements to get out from under our worthless and fraudulent system and currency. Maybe it will take a few more years, I don't know. But when all that $US begins to flood back home to our shores, look out! Actually, I hope it hold together until at least 2015 as we'd like more time yet for the sheeple to wake up and stack/prep themselves. But it *IS* failing and it *WILL* ultimately fall. All my wife and I can continue to do is buy as much as we can when we can and pray.

Now back into lurker/learner mode! Thanks everyone.

indosil
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:39am

@ Turd

As far as i know entire Europe & USA will be enjoyin an extended Christmas beginning on the 22nd.

Traders square off their position before christmas...so don't you think it gives them a perfect setup to knock down the Metals even lower...just like last year??A perfect garb for another massacre??

I am just airing my thought.....just wondering.

El Gordo
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:40am

Monarch still has...

...some of its "Buck for a buck over spot" rounds available. Might be a good time to stack a few if all you are interested in is the silver and not having to have ASE or the like. I'm considering it - pricing looks pretty good right now.

https://www.monarchpreciousmetals.com/index.php?option=com_virtuemart&pa...

hammerman
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:40am

u do a good job as always turd

dont let em get you down.... did you get with your people yesterday and confirm the major sell off i been telling you bout for last 6 weeks? SPX 1317 IN NEXT 10 DAYS... dont be last on or off the bus.... crushed turds under the bus wheels still stinky like chit bomb...

Dec 14, 2012 - 11:42am

For those who took TF's advice on HEH

And bought in August, either trading or stacking, here is a little something to chew on. Honestly, what the hell are you crying about? Seriously... if the advice of a broker or a 2 and 20 hedge fund manager brought you these returns FOR THE YEAR, you would be lionizing the guy. These are 4 month returns, the dude does this for free, and you bust his balls? Really?

.

Just FYI, I was already working on this chart for my own use, I wanted to look at the decay of various instruments over a typical swing-trade period, and see how it stacked up (so to speak) against straight physical silver... was just interested so I ran this. PHYS sure has been a dog, comparatively at least, hasn't it?

brokerk22
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:43am

Just keep doing what you are doing

Turd, just keep doing what you are doing. Screw the trolls. We need you. Please dont be afraid to keep us informed because of the trolls either. Just screw them and forget em.

Nana
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:43am

Do You Have a "Mental Disorder"

https://www.pakalertpress.com/2012/12/14/psychiatry-goes-insane-every-hu...

Psychiatry goes insane: Every human emotion now classified as a mental disorder in new psychiatric manual DSM-5

The industry of modern psychiatry has officially gone insane. Virtually every emotion experienced by a human being — sadness, grief, anxiety, frustration, impatience, excitement — is now being classified as a “mental disorder” demanding chemical treatment (with prescription medications, of course).

The new, upcoming DSM-5 “psychiatry bible,” expected to be released in a few months, has transformed itself from a medical reference manual to a testament to the insanity of the industry itself............

............You can also get diagnosed with “Hoarding Disorder” if you happen to stockpile food, water and ammunition, among other things. Yep, being prepared for possible natural disasters now makes you a mental patient in the eyes of modern psychiatry (and the government, too).

-----------

Wow! Think of the implications of this. Just because you prepare you now can be classified with a "mental disorder". They could use the DSM-5 "psychiatry bible" to take away peoples guns, peoples food, peoples metals, put them on drugs or lock them away......

dgstage
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:44am

Response to In Truth

Turd, do not be so hard on yourself. I think the majority understand what you are trying to do. For those that are so blind, and cannot see how this is going to end, there is no help.

This power that has been in place for so long cannot be toppled easily, but I agree with you it will happen.

So the weak I would say F off.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Recent Comments

by lakedweller2, Jul 23, 2019 - 11:39pm
by AvgAmerican, Jul 23, 2019 - 10:52pm
by Winder, Jul 23, 2019 - 10:52pm
by climbthathill, Jul 23, 2019 - 10:17pm
by DAGEORGE42, Jul 23, 2019 - 9:49pm

Forum Discussion

by HappyNow, Jul 23, 2019 - 10:18pm
by Scarecrow, Jul 23, 2019 - 4:54pm
by zman, Jul 23, 2019 - 2:07pm
by zman, Jul 23, 2019 - 2:00pm
by NW VIEW, Jul 23, 2019 - 11:45am
by silver66, Jul 23, 2019 - 11:38am
randomness