Back From Break

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35. Then....it's on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

492 Comments

Groaner's picture

Can you imagine that happening to your child?

Send them off to school and then that happens??

Gut wrenching to beyond belief

ancientmoney's picture

@JohnnyR re: "silver is rare"

Agreed it is unusual for a MSM outlet to print thusly.  Editor will probably now be fired!

He is right, though.  Silver reserves are dropping, and that ore which is left in the ground is much harder to turn into the element we know as silver.  See SRSrocco's posts.

The PTB know this.  They know that there is no known replacement for silver in most of its industrial uses in a modern, electronic world.  They know that the silver reserves are dropping.  They know silver is a strategic element in a modern world.

They also know that as silver's price rises, just like gold's, Apple's, Google's, etc., that it attracts more investors.  Because they know all the above, they MUST DO ALL THEY CAN TO MAKE SILVER UNATTRACTIVE TO INVESTORS.

Because a rising price of silver kills everything (financial) sooner.  As Byzantium said, it also has the knock-on effect on gold, another barometer for the financial worlds' excesses.

Bull markets carry as few riders as possible.  The PTB know this.  Only a few can stand the agonies of a bull market, especially one manipulated to slow its pulse.

AlexCojones's picture

You Know You Live in Turdistan If

You know you live in the fair land of Turdistan-

...If you know Fiat refers to funny money not a cheap Italian car.

...If you know what "unfortunate boating accident" really means.

...If you know Santa has nothing to do with the North Pole.

...If you know that "happy Tuesdays" are not always happy.

...If you know that "big stack" has nothing to do with big boobs.

...If you know that "shiny" has nothing to do with a derogatory Irish remark.

...If you can quote the GSR to the nearest decimal point.

...If you fear the Creature from Jekyl Island more than zombies and vampires.

...If you know that Blythe Masters is both a zombie AND vampire.

...If you know that community and family are part of your core stack here in Turdistan, a precious part of your preps, a key aspect of your personal sense of values.

Have a Happy Friday! And a Wonderful Weekend!

AC

clueless one's picture

@ Groaner

Your last sentence says it all.

Fat Willie's picture

Endgame

I hate to admit, but it is hard to see how anything is going to change the paper game at this point. I think HSBC did it for me. If blatant money laundering doesn't land people in jail, what will? I agree with Murphy on this. The rule of law is dead, so what does it matte if the manipulation goes mainstream? Who will care? Who will prosecute? Who will say no to the payoffs and bribes to stand down? If law enforcement won't get Corzine, is it even a remote possibility they will do somethin about a TBTF like JPM.

Unless we see a sea change in the mood of this country and the west in general, it's well and truly over. Beyond metals manipulation, if blatant crime is not penalized, the cartel is far from "desperate". In fact, the boldness of the post QE4 manipulation proves to me that that can sell with impunity.

I really hope something will change it. But in the current regulatory environment, I just can't imagine it.

Best of luck to all of the stackers. My focus beyond stacking is now land. And lots of it.

Turd- thank you for fighting the good fight.

Fat Willie.

Road_Scholar's picture

RE: Debt Montization

I'm confused with your question/premise but let me try anyway.

The government spends money but can't issue money or debt instruments (bonds) to fund a deficit.  The treasury sells debt instruments to raise cash but can't direct the budget or create the money.  The Federal Reserve controls the base interest rate (Fed Funds) and recently created "quantitative easing" to overtly buy assets, they also call it expanding their balance sheet.  I think you know all of this but it's good to set a baseline in their bullshit games.

All debt, "new" or "old" is bonds just with different maturity dates.  New bonds are issued as needed and can be bought or sold at any time at a later date through the bond market.  The yield is determined by the inverse of the price (i.e. low demand for the bond = equals lower price and then a higher yield of the issue).  Once the yield goes up, the next "new" issue will have a coupon similar to the current market determined interest rate.  So basically, if there was "real" supply & demand without QE the supply would overwhelm the natural buyers at that price and rates would shoot up.  Those are the "dots" Turd is connecting between QE sanitizing the federal debt for the government.

Nick Elway's picture

LCC report

Picked up a roll of silver proof quarters at melt for Christmas gifts and stacking.

A person at the Local Coin Club takes them out of their bulky package, puts them in $10 face tubes, and trades them for FRN at melt.

http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1932-1964-Silver-Washington-Quarter-Value.html 

Cononish1314's picture

You know you live in Absurdistan if...

...ach, cannae be bothered.

Somebody else post the metals charts.

SilverFocker's picture

Yesterday

I was listening to the CNBC BS about the exact meaning of the Fed statement, they had this guy and that guy.....yada yada. I got up and got a drink and on they way back to the Puter I hear some gal introduce a guy named Bob.."it's all I caught" , she stated that his calls for the last 12 months had been spot on........"So Bob, where do you see the next big move to make money in this clouded market"?.......Bob, "well I am going to get hammered for this , but the big move for any trade in this market is ....Wait for it....not yet.....Wait..........SILVER.

I about fell outa my chair.......this was the First for me watching MSM that a supposed respected financial whiz has called SILVER the best bet of everything in this market, maybe things are a changing and TURD will have his 2013 call vindicated.......I got to admit, I kinda got all warm a fuzzy after this interview, the problem was, I did not think to rewind and DVR it.

I guess that means I will need to put off PM rehab at least another 12 months.

Bollocks's picture

"silver is rare"

Silver is a precious metal. Of course it's rare. I don't think that comment was a slip-up, that reporter was just stating the obvious. I don't think this was some news coming out that shouldn't (and anyway, what do the reporters that work for the MSM really know about what's going on?)

Having said all that, it is rare -in the way we've come to know, of course. And it's a lot rarer than just rare.

Groaner's picture

Your first mistake is to listen to mainline TV like CNBC

the are the mouths of the Dragon. 

Lots to filter out these days, on the net too.

ancientmoney's picture

@funkymonkeyboy Re: Turd's stack

You said: 

"If you're asking people to invest their earned wealth in gold and silver, i think its reasonable that you actually prove you "do as you say".

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Are you from the IRS, and here to help?

SaratogaPrepper's picture

Decision

Picking out my Christmas present to myself (hey, I get what I REALLY want that way). A tube of Silver Maples or a 1/2 oz AGE? Provident is out of 1/2 oz Maples.

Prayers for the victims and families of the school shooting.

The world is going Mad!

Edit : Went with the 1/2 oz AGE. Need to improve my ratio.

TheGreatKD's picture

Help Please-Tech Problem

Sorry if this has already been addressed. I use FireFox to access this sight. Recently I have not been able to receive any Videos or Music or anything like this. I receive rest of info no problems including pictures. Somehow I must have disabled a pop up or some screen that has cut  my being able to receive Videos. Can some fellow Turdite please help me out !!

As stated sorry if this been addressed but I am bummed without the full Monty of TurdWorld. KD

TheGreatKD's picture

Help Please-Tech Problem

Sorry if this has already been addressed. I use FireFox to access this sight. Recently I have not been able to receive any Videos or Music or anything like this. I receive rest of info no problems including pictures. Somehow I must have disabled a pop up or some screen that has cut  my being able to receive Videos. Can some fellow Turdite please help me out !!

As stated sorry if this been addressed but I am bummed without the full Monty of TurdWorld. KD

TheGreatKD's picture

Help Please-Tech Problem

Sorry if this has already been addressed. I use FireFox to access this sight. Recently I have not been able to receive any Videos or Music or anything like this. I receive rest of info no problems including pictures. Somehow I must have disabled a pop up or some screen that has cut  my being able to receive Videos. Can some fellow Turdite please help me out !!

As stated sorry if this been addressed but I am bummed without the full Monty of TurdWorld. KD

TheGreatKD's picture

Help Please-Tech Problem

Sorry if this has already been addressed. I use FireFox to access this sight. Recently I have not been able to receive any Videos or Music or anything like this. I receive rest of info no problems including pictures. Somehow I must have disabled a pop up or some screen that has cut  my being able to receive Videos. Can some fellow Turdite please help me out !!

As stated sorry if this been addressed but I am bummed without the full Monty of TurdWorld. KD

TheGreatKD's picture

Help Please-Tech Problem

Sorry if this has already been addressed. I use FireFox to access this sight. Recently I have not been able to receive any Videos or Music or anything like this. I receive rest of info no problems including pictures. Somehow I must have disabled a pop up or some screen that has cut  my being able to receive Videos. Can some fellow Turdite please help me out !!

As stated sorry if this been addressed but I am bummed without the full Monty of TurdWorld. KD

TheGreatKD's picture

Help Please-Tech Problem

Sorry if this has already been addressed. I use FireFox to access this sight. Recently I have not been able to receive any Videos or Music or anything like this. I receive rest of info no problems including pictures. Somehow I must have disabled a pop up or some screen that has cut  my being able to receive Videos. Can some fellow Turdite please help me out !!

As stated sorry if this been addressed but I am bummed without the full Monty of TurdWorld. KD

TheGreatKD's picture

Help Please-Tech Problem

Sorry if this has already been addressed. I use FireFox to access this sight. Recently I have not been able to receive any Videos or Music or anything like this. I receive rest of info no problems including pictures. Somehow I must have disabled a pop up or some screen that has cut  my being able to receive Videos. Can some fellow Turdite please help me out !!

As stated sorry if this been addressed but I am bummed without the full Monty of TurdWorld. KD

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother's picture

kd

you mean hitting 'post' all those times didn't fix it?

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

@ancientmoney: A question of credibility.

Nope, why are you suggesting "Turd" is tax evading? Doesn't someone have to sell their silver/gold to evade taxes? I thought the message was loud and clear that silver and gold should be bought only? or are you just making excuses why "Turd" shouldn't do a Youtube style vid of his stack, like so many others "stackers" do no problem. e.g.

I'm sure it would be a great moral boost to his followers, and also a credibility boost for himself, to show of a chunk of his stack off.

Shouldn't be too difficult i would have though if the stack actually exists in physical reality. It's not as if "Turd" doesn't have the technology and platform to do videos.

agNau's picture

Clive......

is here learning about manipulation.
Welcome!

tyberious's picture

Guest Post: Gold and Silver –

Guest Post: Gold and Silver – Of Cartels, Algorithms and Artificial Prices

 

silver-coin-investor.com / By Dr. Jeff Lewis / December 13, 2012

GUEST POST submitted by Silver-Coin-Investor.com,

Those who follow the day to day developments in the gold and silver markets have typically seen rampant market manipulation by large traders and bullion banks.

Although supposedly against the rules — and even being subjected to an ongoing investigation by the CFTC that now reaches into its fifth year — this market bullying is nevertheless allowed to happen over and over again without effective regulatory intervention.

Some of these big players even employ algorithmic trading systems to move into and out of the market faster than any human can. The transactions initiated by these computerized trading programs happen rapidly and often in huge size.

Algorithmic Trading Contributes to Manipulation

Despite these challenges, both precious metals have been able to rise over the last decade, so the real question is how high the prices of silver and gold would be if the market had not been subjected to recent downside price volatility?

The bullion banks typically need only a minute — as their algorithms quickly trade tens of thousands of Comex futures contracts — in order to induce a dramatic shakeout of weak long positions.

According to Nanex, that is an average of 200 or more contracts traded per second. Furthermore, these sharp moves almost always occur just prior to the trading pit’s open, which is a time frame when the algos tend to dominate the market.

As a very well-informed discussion forum writer contributing under the name James Mc of GATA Chairman Bill Murphy’s Lemetropolecafe recently noted on November 28th:

“Unlike last Friday, when it took over 165,000 contracts trading to net a gain of $23.20, gold fell $25.60 between 8:20 and 8:21 AM this morning. Furthermore in just 5 minutes (8:20-8:25AM) a whopping 21,205 contracts traded. No long would ever dream of unloading a position in this manner”

Basically, only a very deep-pocket entity, cartel, or bullion bank aided by an intimate knowledge of where the sell-stops are located could make this happen with the help of algorithmic trading.

This price action effectively negated yet another widely observed technical breakout, which is the result that the manipulators typically accomplish in the market’s managed retreat toward ever higher and higher precious metal prices.

Predictable Trading Patterns Observed

For years, it was GATA speaking out as the lone voice against this practice, but now ZeroHedge has somewhat begrudgingly brought the issue to its fight club by pointing out the increasingly obvious pre-opening trading pattern typically employed by a large “not-for-profit”.

A review of the predictive trading patterns shows these tendencies:

  • On most trading days, gold and silver prices are bombed just before the Comex market opens.
  • Fresh speculative longs get washed out, creating sentiment “at the margin” — which is poor.
  • The price of both metals gets crushed at and around options expiration.
  • If one metal trades higher or looks stronger, it matters little, and they are not allowed to follow each other higher. For example, over the past few weeks, silver has traded relatively strongly, but gold was leaned on despite this strength.
  • Over and over, the HUI or the miners index, works as a tip off indicator. When the mining index is weak, the likelihood of a manipulative raid the following day rises substantially.

This all reflects the real interests working behind the scenes to move gold and silver prices in ways that suit their manipulative purposes. Not the Fiscal Cliff, the FOMC meetings, the Debt Ceiling, nor any other well publicized geopolitical crisis. Precious metals pricing happens in the pits, apparently oblivious to world events or actual physical demand.

What Do You Think?

 

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/107584

The Watchman's picture

monkeyboy

troll-87950610113.jpeg

ballzdeepnsilver's picture

@ SilverFocker

What time were you watching CNBC when that interview was on? 

القراع عصفور's picture

the state of the union

13 minutes - for most here, a review, but also a call to action.  please pass this along.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=i5N_huInM0k

rl999's picture

tf's stack

Funkymonkyboy- there is no issue here, tf posted a pic of his stack long ago

Register as a member @ turdtalksmetals .com and you can stare at it while you listen to the podcasts.

It's pretty impressive.

sent from my mobile tracking device.

tyberious's picture

Was this on the banksters Christmas list?

Beastly Stack's picture

Sad Day

I am a father of 3 and me and my wife can only pray that our children make it through this world the best they can.My oldest is 15 and my youngest 10,thank God we had the boys first so they can look after their sister.I work from home and love having dinner with the family everynight.I am a huge fan of FAMILY,it is the most imporant thing we have,there is nothing on this earth better than a loving family.

I pray for all the victims and the families.

Have a nice weekend Turdville!

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