Back From Break

488
Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - 10:09am

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35. Then....it's on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  488 Comments

meegoreng1
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:09am

Turd says...

"With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little."

Turd, do you have any inside info into why you think that 2013 is going to be another one of your explosive period which hasn't panned out yet in the past? If you do have some inside info, does it have anything to do with an entity outside the EE that is going to TAKE DELIVERY of their metals? Because you know that is the ONLY way this shenanigan is going to end!

If you do, GREAT! IF not please do not set our expectations high just like many others esp the KWNers.

I appreciate what you do for this community. I enjoy being here knowing that there is a family of people that do understand what is really going on in this world and you have created that environment through your site.

As I have written in my previous post, setting an expectation which fails to materialize, discourages PM buyers from buying more. In fact, many throw in the towel, esp the newbies.

I truly believe that this is a long term battle in price discovery. While we think in terms of months and years, the EE which has its tentacles in every aspect of our lives plans in terms of decades and centuries! If that last sentence is hard to believe and comprehend than I think we have no business investing in gold and silver. This rabbit hole goes down deeper than we want to believe. This manipulation has been going on for decades. I can see them kicking the can down the road for many trillions more in debt before it unravels. The DPM (Department of Perception Management) can 'manage' gold and silver prices to a small 10-20% a year ascent.

At the meantime, while we try to set our expectations to a long term basis, we should enjoy everyday as each day is a blessing to us. We can also encourage others to also protect themselves from this inevitable event but without setting their expectations too high.

Had to get this off my chest.

Xeno
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:11am

Bally

I think you may be correct. All we know is that the Fed is paying the banks for their reserve deposits and the Fed is buying the banks junk at full value and that the banks are not lending into the economy. So where's the money going? Probably a good chunk into the Fed so the banks can repair their balance sheets with risk free profits and if the mortgage mkt. is any indication, they have a long way to go. The rest prolly goes to the corps. and govt. as, um, donations and for insider dealing and lets not forget the massive funding the military and black ops needs too.

It looks like it will be a while before much funding will go to where it would do the greatest economic good.

jmho

edit: from https://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/newsdesk/federal-reserve-policy-...

Does the concept of central bank accounting – as if they are just like any other bank – make any sense for institutions that can print as much new money as they see fit? And at what point does the shattering of this pretense lead to a dollar crisis?

Sooner than many people imagine we expect, but it depends on crowd psychology. Each time the Fed resorts to these ploys, it is slowly chipping away at the dollar “building’s” foundations. For a while, it may successfully be able to do this, without the building collapsing. But at some point, the building will collapse – and gold, silver, platinum and palladium and other hard asset prices will surge.

Groaner
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:12am

USD really dropping now.

ah yes, the good old days when the metals traded inverse to the PIG.. We should be up a lot right now!

Big Buffalo
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:16am

awe man

my butt hurts

ballyale
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:17am

I disagree (EVERYONE PLEASE READ)

The Fed is buying $45B in treasuries directly from The Treasury Department. This is direct monetization of the debt and money that is put into circulation by federal government spending, transfer payments etc.

The Fed is also buying $40B/month in MBS from the Primary Dealers. This does two things:

  1. "Cleans up" the PD balance sheets by allowing them to exchange the near-worthless CDS for cash which the PDs then, in turn, use to purchase treasuries.
  2. By purchasing $40B/month in treasuries, the PDs artificially create demand for treasuries at auction. This demand, when combined with Fed demand, creates $85B/month in buying pressure at auction. This continues the illusion of a healthy bond market, keeps auctions from failing and holds interest rates at extraordinarily low levels.

IT IS CRITICAL THAT EVERYONE HERE UNDERSTANDS THIS. THE FED IS, EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, MONETIZING AT LEAST $85 BILLION DOLLARS PER MONTH OF U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT. PERIOD. END OF STORY.

AlexCojones
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:21am

We Deal with Shills & Sheep Everyday


"There are none so blind as those who will not see."

We deal with shills, trolls, woefully ignorant, sadly stupid and laughingly blind every day. WE STACK. To the masses, we are insane -- until such time that we aren't. Mister T is right. We may look deluded now, but one day we'll look like Nostradamus with a crystal ball.

So spoof the shills, satirize the trolls, and deride the so-called "Experts" as this fellow did. https://Mythbusters Tackle 911

meegoreng1
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:23am

In truth...

....I should never have mentioned my HEH stuff in the first place. I only did so because I expected events to move rapidly last summer and, with price so low, I was afraid that many would panic/give up at the most inopportune time. Never (though maybe I should have) did I expect this egregious inaction and delay.

I only mention it again from time to time because so many now seem to think I'm full of shit...some kind of charlatan looking for pageviews. Let me assure you, I'm not. Events will be forced into action in 2013, of this I am certain. Be patient.

Regarding those who give up and sell because they think I'm just another KWN-style pumper...secrew em. I couldn't care less. Can't save everybody.

old tradesman
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:25am

From william banzii in pictures

https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/8268025737

visual aid for what turd is trying to expand on

Groaner
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:29am

could someone buy another silver coin

to give it a kick in the butt. silver is the sick poster boy today..

Schmittchen72
Dec 14, 2012 - 11:30am

Bread and Circuses

This is all a matter of suspend you disbelief: The U.S. $ the Euro obviously manipulated through QE; the invisible hand has been slapped around by banking, derivatives, high-speed micro triads etc. The dollar looks stronger than the Euro, Paper silver is being pumped and dumped to keep hedge funds working. The sheeple are happy the elitists are happy because they are in control. The fear of the fiscal cliff my cause people the average Joe to buy physical silver from Apmax or NWTM, or some other online seller this Christmas. When these prices stay low for spring, that will be good for India to buy some PM. Maybe the invisible hand will finally reach up and grab COMEX by the Nuts in April 2013 J

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Recent Comments

by Outback, 5 min 11 sec ago
by procog, 15 min 51 sec ago
by DeaconBenjamin, 16 min 16 sec ago
by RW, 16 min 23 sec ago

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, 1 hour 15 min ago
by NW VIEW, 2 hours 16 min ago
by Porros, Aug 21, 2019 - 5:00am
by sierra skier, Aug 20, 2019 - 5:12pm
by zman, Aug 20, 2019 - 4:53pm