Back From Break

488
Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - 10:09am

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35. Then....it's on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  488 Comments

Eman Laer · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:01pm

Silver's young upleg

Although you wouldn’t know it from listening to all the bearish commentary out there, silver is actually enjoying a strong young upleg. Its technicals are very bullish, contradicting the prevailing pessimism gripping traders. This glaring disconnect between price action and sentiment won’t last forever. It has hammered silver stocks to depressed levels that offer a smorgasbord of opportunity for brave contrarians.

https://www.zealllc.com/2012/silyngup.htm

rl999 · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:02pm

faux news spin on shooting

I just want to say that black fatigues/bdu/camo uniform are NOT cutting edge, and have nothing to do with any particular military unit, nor do they confer "magic powers" on the wearer, as faux news suggested. They do not make the person better at shooting, nor do they make them invulnerable.

This is the usual (albeit extreme) spin and disinfo. As always, cui bono.

the_circle Nigel Black · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:02pm

?

Time of the month, Nigel? Why do you feel the need to announce when I joined this site? Bit creepy. 

I like the analysis Turd provides- I couldn't care less what you or road scholar think. 

I don't entertain nothings like you, and I won't again.

Torpedo Fish · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:04pm

my gut

my gut feeling - shouldn't drop bellow $32.00

DayStar · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:04pm

RE: According to Harvey

SIlverbee wrote:
He says [he is] waiting for them to be deducted from inventory which I guess implies the paperwork on the delivery is done but not the actual delivery.

SIlverbee, I think Harvey means the vault shipments do not reflect the amounts delivered, and the dealer accounts seldom reflect the amounts withdrawn from or deposited to customer accounts. Also in his accounting of the metal delivered and the amount remaining, his amount remaining to be delivered is a group of OI where the owners have put up their full payment on the contract, but the metal has not yet been delivered. The problem is not paperwork, but the metal. The banksters have to scramble to get the metal to settle the OI or give the contract holders cash plus a bonus to be quiet. Some contract holders appear to hold out to the last day to get the best deal on a cash settlement.

DayStar

Bollocks · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:10pm

LOL tyberious !

No my fridge though. Got it off the interweb thingy.

Torpedo Fish · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:10pm

if I had more powder

if I had more powder I would be buying paper at this dip. Damn I did it at $1 higher

Beastly Stack · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:14pm

Well....

I was correct about the US Dollar this morning.Gold is making me sick though!

Hopefully we are not in for some games on the globex this afternoon!

Corsair · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:18pm

I hate what this world has

I hate what this world has become and the times we live in.

So sad.

SO SAD.

Please pray for the innocent victims and their families. God help us all.

mr ttt · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:20pm

HEH

Ahh well the sheeple still post things to listen to Bill Murphy. These people take no responsibility at all and like another poster earlier regarding the HEH - it's always around the corner and it smacks exactly like Wynter Benton - how else to describe it.

The lights should come on - the prices will go where ever the powerful will want them to go. These little sheeple who are working to try and stop it are just not powerful enough. This bravado about let them smack it we will buy some more. When will the sheeple wake up that silver keeps on coming - everyone is still getting their silver and silver dealers always have more physical. The rest is bullshit.

The newsletter writers are immaterial to where the price is going - if at all Clive Maund has been the most accurate out of everyone.

I still just read here to read what one can come up possibly more.

ballyale · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:20pm

Disbelieve vs. Desperation

▲▼ Company name▲▼ Price▲▼ Change▲▼ Chg %▲▼ d | m | y▲▼ Mkt Cap▲▼Di
ASM Avino Silver & Go... 1.78 -0.04 -2.20%
SSRI Silver Standard R... 15.14 +0.27 1.82% 1.22B
EXK Endeavour Silver ... 8.17 +0.14 1.74% 814.23M
SVM Silvercorp Metals... 5.55 +0.08 1.46% 944.28M
AG First Majestic Si... 22.89 +0.19 0.84% 2.64B
GPL Great Panther Sil... 1.66 -0.02 -1.19% 230.20M
MVG Mag Silver Corp (... 10.04 +0.09 0.90% 597.74M
PAAS Pan American Silv... 18.85 +0.06 0.32% 2.86B
AUMN Golden Minerals Co 4.61 -0.11 -2.33% 210.39M
SLW Silver Wheaton Co... 37.18 +0.37 1.01% 13.07B
AXU Alexco Resource C... 3.99 +0.05 1.27% 239.60M
sengfarmer · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:21pm

Byzantium

I think your understanding is stated in a way that is hard to understand :).

The fed is monetizing the debt by buying crap assets from the big banks. The big banks then take that money and buy treasuries thus financing the deficit.

In return the big banks get to unload worthless or nearly so MBS' AND then have reserves which they can multiply through the fractional reserve system. In effect they are being allowed once again to fleece the public times 10.

In my opinion the reason we haven't seen any pick up in the economy after the 17 trillion of tarp and the ongoing QE's is the interest rate swap derivatives are eating up all that cash. Where else could it go?

The real deficit is 8 trillion per year if Medicade, Social Security, and government retirement fundings were accounted for as per Cox and Archer.

Medicade is underfunded today by more that 42 trillion. Social Security by over 20 trillion. These programs require fresh printing to keep going. In the case of SS it's worse because all that is left are un marketable IOU's from the treasury that also have to be monetized.

The mess this country is in is obviously unsustainable. We are witnessing the death of the dollar.

The Fed controls both ends of the debt curve through the interest rate swap derivatives which demand and overwhelming amount of treasury purchases every month to be sustained.

Beentheredonethat · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:22pm

Turd I stack what else can you do.

The dollars going down the shitter the euro is worthless. When I first started buying silver it was $17.90 an oz, it went down to $9.00 I never once thought about getting out. No one knows what's going to happen, but you should know Turd by what your charts tell you. But then the cartel jumps in and everything is changed, all we know for sure is it is going up no doubt about that. I like this site it helps keep me focused. I just bought 40 more oz's yesterday asked my LCS if more people were buying silver, he said that ever since Obummer got in, people don't say I need more silver, they say I got to get more silver. Oh as far as the trolls go they need to get screwed. TURD keep up the good work. Now I'm going to go back to lurking.

heyJoe · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:27pm

Mad World

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR91Rj1ZN1M&feature=player_detailpage#t=0s

Heard this song on the radio today. Original done by Tears for Fears. Like this version better from the movie Donnie Darko, by Gary Jules. Great movie if you haven't seen it.

Appropriate for todays state of thing.

Keep Stacking!

Groaner · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:30pm

did silver just make a double bottom?

it better or I am going to complain! 

wait.. that's all I ever do..

probably not..

this has been a Chinese water torture board day in silver

Groaner · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:30pm

MOre on the shootings.. sickos.

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — As many as 27 people are dead, including 18 children, in a shooting Friday mornings at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school, the Associated Press is reporting. The alleged gunman is among the dead, police officials say.

The shooter, reportedly wearing a mask, had at least two nine-millimeter handguns, which were found near his body at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, about 60 miles outside of New York City, published reports said. It’s unclear if he shot himself or was killed by police.

Three people were taken to Danbury Hospital, which put itself under lock-down, according to the medical facility’s Facebook page. Hospital officials would not give the ages or conditions of the victims they were treating.

Unconfirmed reports also note that the principal and other administrators may have been the target. A news conference is planned for this afternoon.

Crying and obviously frightened young children, their hands on each others’ shoulders, were led single-file through the school’s parking lot by adults as local and state police searched room to room and the surrounding area. The FBI also joined in the investigation.

All schools in the Newtown district were immediately placed on lock down, which reportedly was lifted around noon Eastern.

Children described loud booms and “lots of” shots after classes began at the kindergarten through fourth-grade school. There are more than 626 children enrolled at the school, which employs 46 faculty members, the Newtown Patch reported.

Just like in the days of Noah, the earth was filled with violence. Do you think as time goes on there is going to be more violence, esculate as things deteriorate more?

Bill of Rights · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:30pm

We just had an Office party,

We just had an Office party, and I gave as a Gift a one Ounce Silver Eagle, the people were in Aw....Sorry to say folks many didn't even know what it was....we have a long way to go sorry to say.

sengfarmer · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:31pm

On the reserve currency

Some one mentioned the fact that the $ is the reserve currency and it isn't going away.

That is an erroneous assumption. These major countries that used to use the $ are now transacting business in their own currencies:

China-Germany China-Brazil China-Japan China-Russia China-Iran China-UAE India-Russia India-Japan Iran- Turkey 

The $ just a few years ago was used in 60% of global trade, today it is 40%.

I think the loss of reserve status will be the big inflationary push as those trillions and trillions of dollars come flooding back into the US.

Grublux · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:31pm

And the miners

diverge some more.

Working on a bullish engulfing on the daily

BagOfGold · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:33pm

For the children...

there is no comfort for them on this earth anymore!!!...

Video unavailable

Bag Of Gold

Mickey · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:34pm

3 things

anybody counting-I think 4 take down attempts today so far--gold bounced back fast on all 4--silver kind of the first 3. not the 4th. Silver main event today obviously

The USD and gold are correlated when the media think its appropriate for them to be correlated.

HUI saying uh uh to gold and silver still being red today

SLW up 1%, SIL, the hybrid silver miner etf is up nearly 1%.

mixed messages today.

mr ttt · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:34pm

Whatever you say, Clive

knock yourself out...

Silverman · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:36pm

Raid

Main raid not started yet. 

rpboxster · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:36pm

I'm sick about this killing...

physically sick. I can't get my head around that one. I'm going home soon. 

I think Dr. G (I think) had it right about strengthening the family. I see that as the only solution to problems like these and many others. It's easy and rewarding to do, and we do it every day. But, how do you get people to care about others, or their own family for crying out loud?

thurd aye · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:36pm

When the casino finally goes

When the casino finally goes "bust", you will know who to blame.

Without a doubt, a derivatives panic is coming.

It will cause the financial markets to crash.

Several of the "too big to fail" banks will likely crash and burn and require bailouts.

As a result of all this, credit markets will become paralyzed by fear and freeze up.

Once again, we will see the U.S. economy go into cardiac arrest, only this time it will not be

so easy to fix.

... overly pessimistic?

https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37882.html

tyberious · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:37pm

OMG!

I go do some errands! This is just nuts! WHY?WHY? WHY? These children did nothing!

My eyes well up!

Groaner · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:38pm

Can you imagine that happening to your child?

Send them off to school and then that happens??

Gut wrenching to beyond belief

ancientmoney JohnnyR · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:39pm

@JohnnyR re: "silver is rare"

Agreed it is unusual for a MSM outlet to print thusly. Editor will probably now be fired!

He is right, though. Silver reserves are dropping, and that ore which is left in the ground is much harder to turn into the element we know as silver. See SRSrocco's posts.

The PTB know this. They know that there is no known replacement for silver in most of its industrial uses in a modern, electronic world. They know that the silver reserves are dropping. They know silver is a strategic element in a modern world.

They also know that as silver's price rises, just like gold's, Apple's, Google's, etc., that it attracts more investors. Because they know all the above, they MUST DO ALL THEY CAN TO MAKE SILVER UNATTRACTIVE TO INVESTORS.

Because a rising price of silver kills everything (financial) sooner. As Byzantium said, it also has the knock-on effect on gold, another barometer for the financial worlds' excesses.

Bull markets carry as few riders as possible. The PTB know this. Only a few can stand the agonies of a bull market, especially one manipulated to slow its pulse.

AlexCojones · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:39pm

You Know You Live in Turdistan If

You know you live in the fair land of Turdistan-

...If you know Fiat refers to funny money not a cheap Italian car.

...If you know what "unfortunate boating accident" really means.

...If you know Santa has nothing to do with the North Pole.

...If you know that "happy Tuesdays" are not always happy.

...If you know that "big stack" has nothing to do with big boobs.

...If you know that "shiny" has nothing to do with a derogatory Irish remark.

...If you can quote the GSR to the nearest decimal point.

...If you fear the Creature from Jekyl Island more than zombies and vampires.

...If you know that Blythe Masters is both a zombie AND vampire.

...If you know that community and family are part of your core stack here in Turdistan, a precious part of your preps, a key aspect of your personal sense of values.

Have a Happy Friday! And a Wonderful Weekend!

AC

clueless one · Dec 14, 2012 - 1:40pm

@ Groaner

Your last sentence says it all.

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Key Economic Events week of 11/19

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