Back From Break

Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - 10:09am

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35.'s on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 14, 2012 - 12:05pm

Roubini Says It's QE5 - In Case you're Counting

Nouriel Roubini is keeping the QE score.

Fed decision today is QE5 as Op Twist was QE3 (sterilized QE=unsterilized at 0% rates) & open-ended QE in Q3 was QE4. So today is QE5!

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:06pm


on the move

Wizard TF
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:09pm


"Can't save everybody."

Turd moves from Bargaining directly to Acceptance

Congratulations and Welcome


Nigel Black
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:10pm



(I use balsalmic vinegar instead of red wine vinegar)

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:15pm

This is the sexiest gold bar I have ever seen...

Wish I had the money to buy it

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:15pm

The world.....

is deflating. It is one great credit cycle unwinding. The largest creditor/borrower in history is attempting to both maintain the vehicle of debt(dollar), and ....CREDIT to the world, via loans from that same debt instrument. Every move the FED makes to replace the dying demand for dollars is met with repercussions on the economies/lives of everyone else in the world. The Federal Reserve system of money depends on ever increasing amounts of debt creation for it's survival. That debt creation through it's normal flow is now turned off, and in reverse, as the economies of the world have reached a phase of debt/credit saturation. This system fed back to it's enablers through mainly the petro dollar to create the worlds greatest consumers of debt. Now those same consumers of debt are tapped out as the system has essentially devoured itself. The world economies have fed the consumers, and now are suffering from holding those same notes of debt(directly or indirectly through their own currency)as the collapse of debt snowballs. China has spent a great deal of time and effort to replace the engine of growth, the us dollar debt machine and banking system. And still is on track to do so. IMO The FED is as much attempting to kill off any attempt to defeat their system, as to maintain the status quo......of increasing debt creation. A reset. 1.) print money and replace the debt creation that is now declining as the demand for debt declines. 2.) through that same printing destroy the economies of the world OUTSIDE THE US.....MORE THAN THE US ITSELF. 3.) supplement the above with military and economic activity, both overt and covert, to reach goal of global weakness and chaos while maintaining fiat control. We all see the placement of CB's occurring. * I believe the plan is to outrun the (Santa's term. "Currency induced/Cost push/Inflation" {CICPI} . Outrun means kill them before us. What we know is happening is devaluation on massive scale. We are witnessing control of commodity pricing now to mask the process, and discourage any from running to real money. Massive money printing will result in CICPI. The question is how long before it begins to really show in our economy. We already see inflation in the real world. With the # of dollars created to date, we have yet to see the equal real inflation IMO. This is only considering to date DONE printing, not future. Consider this......with the globe deflating from prior economic activity, the use of energy is lower than it's peak of demand marked in my thinking by the $149/barrel oil. Therefore this price, and the complex is more easily controlled and shielded from the devaluation weaponry.(*for a while) The energy complex control in itself is quite controlling of the "mindset" of the whole. Remember that it is always about perception. It is until it isn't. And that goes for the whole PONZI. Has anyone in their lifetime ever witnessed a more chaotic world? And when I think about that.....a more calm population witnessing the chaos????? On top of Ben's print......I believe we are going to see HUGE NEW SPENDING(printing) from government(fiscal cliff resolution....not). We will see continual deterioration in the economies of the world......the growth/debt engine will sputter as increasing amounts of paper are needed. Our decline has just begun. G & S will ultimately be money without a doubt. When is the question. And will we be able to keep ours?

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:18pm

usd down 40 ticks now!

something has to give.. give it up you bums

FunkyMonkeyBoy TF
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:23pm

Proof you're not a "KWN-style pumper"

Hey "Turd",

I buy physical gold and silver myself, mainly because i don't trust governments because they are proven liars and murderers... the closest thing there is to pure evil in this reality.

Anyway, I've been listening to the "gold and silver" celebrities for a long long time now pumping their wares and I think most have a nefarious agenda and little credibility.

As a Christmas moral boost to your followers, and to prove you're not all talk, how about posting a video of your stash? You know, like some folks do with pride on YouTube, e.g.:

Mouthwatering Silver Collection!

If you're asking people to invest their earned wealth in gold and silver, i think its reasonable that you actually prove you "do as you say".

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:24pm

Chinese short position

Few days ago there were article about Chinese short position on zerohedge. Chinese are stacking like crazy. But they also want cheaper metals. That might be true. I want cheap silver too!

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:27pm

Turd posting his stash? Impossible

That's a really stupid concept...

everyone *knows* that his stash is stuck, out of sight and mind, at the bottom of a very deep underwater trench.

Silly rabbit.

robov indosil
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:27pm


Silver is receiving more attention as a result of the high OI as Turd eluded to earlier in the post and the fact that JP Morgue still holds over 90,000 shorts that they need to try and get out of. In the past waterfall drops in the silver price of this nature have always managed to force weak handed longs to puke up those contracts so that JPM could buy to cover. What has changed over the last few months is that on some of these waterfall drops instead of OI dropping and JPM being able to cover OI has risen as new stronger longs enter the arena. On the surface of it, at least, it appears that there are some very strong hands on the long side of silver that are able/willing to take on JPM's shorts and they are not being forced out of their long positions. Hence Harvey's term " They are having a hard time shaking the silver leaves off the tree" like they always have in the past.

Ted Butler also spoke of the fact that JP may be trapped in their shorts as well and hence why there has been recent talk about "Force Mujeres" where JPM is so up to their eyeballs in shorts that they can't get out of them and the TBTF scenario plays out where they will have to be rescued.

I admit it sounds preposterous to suggest that JPMorgan might be stuck and trapped in their massive concentrated COMEX silver short position. After all, the bank is the one true master of the derivates universe, being the largest derivatives trader of all. Even more preposterous is the circumstance that the bank has remained silent against continuing allegations that their massive short position constitutes price manipulation. But no matter how outlandish the suggestions may seem, an objective assessment of the facts point to JPMorgan being up to its neck in the criminal manipulation of the silver market. The only question is the outcome. - Silver analyst Ted Butler...08 December 2012

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:29pm

Fuckin Unbelievable

Fuckin Unbelievable........PIG being fed to the swines & metals to the downside......uuufffffffffffff

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:29pm

The signs of things truly unraveling will be:

Last part of an email my local small town financial guy sent me:

Gold will rise again in an amazing rally with periodic and horrific take downs by the clandestine Fed who hate gold and all it represents (anti paper money).

Interest rates will rise.

War will be forced upon us (they will say) to distract you.

Inflation will rise in brief but unbelievable spurts. Certain items will spike frightfully (happening now).

Derivative implosions (bank bets) will necessitate obvert and covert bank bail outs. Most of these bets will be centered around interest rate bets and gold shorts.

The spin that everything is under control will intensify with interviews and assertions by “experts” not to panic and remain vested in common assets.

More will take place in complicated markets that I will see but are too numerous to mention here but you can trust I will break them down for you and keep you informed truthfully (as long as I breathe and am conscious of course).

For now, keep reading, educating and watching.

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:32pm

Looking for someone to blame?

Unfortunately, I must sell a pinch of my "double up/down" silver position today to make funds available for my mid-month retirement payment. Other than that, I think I'm not going to do a damn thing regarding any buying or selling today.

When PMs move down, it's easy to see only the chasm that lies below. This site and it's participants always reinforce the only perspective that makes sense to me. Even the smart-ass trolls can't convince me that my money would be better invested elsewhere. I see for example, that RIMM has more than doubled in the past few months. Ya, like I'd sell silver to buy into that one, either then or now??!!! Ditto on Apple (even if I could own a US stock).

No, I can't say that I've ever made a dollar by following Turd's advice. Fact is, I don't follow it to the letter. I have my own mind, my own hunches and make my own decisions. That way, there's only one person to garner the accolades or the contempt that I justly deserve.

Thank you Turd and all those intelligent and articulate Turdites that monitor and contribute to this website.

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:32pm
Hellfish TF
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:33pm



Dec 14, 2012 - 12:34pm

LCS Report

tried to post this yesterday, blew up multiple times and I lost here it is again:

I've been buying from tens to hundreds of ozs at a time w/ cash at my LCS for over 3 yrs. Went in yesterday, owner not there. I said, "The usual for Ag, $1 over for 1 oz bars and $2.50 for ASEs"?

2 employees: "Our premiums have never been that low; No, it's now $3 over and $5 over, respectively"

Discussion, with me slightly incredulous at their wrong claim of historic premiums there, we went back and forth...they wouldn't budge, saying it's tougher for them to replace inventory now.

So, to btfd, I go to provident and liberty this time around.

but BTFD must be done.

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:35pm


Thanks.Yes I am aware of this scenario...& I sincerely wish that this is the way it should be;but what bothers me now & which can only be cleared will be the next week's COT...let's hope the Large Speculators(Hedge Funds,Cartel v/s Cartel) didn't liquidate in Yesterday's fall.

I just want a big FFUUUBBMMMM.....pretty soon as possible..

robov Groaner
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:41pm

@usd down 40 ticks now!

Yea in free fall, yet no co relation in POG/S? The miners have responded though and are seeing some good bids on some increased volume which is hopefully promising.

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:41pm


Dec 14, 2012 - 12:42pm

Silver in surplus or shortage?

I hear both, shortage of silver and surplus of silver coming from analysts, internet personalities and bloggers with no faces. How do I as an investor/stacker find out where the silver supply really stands? I don't have connections to the London exchange or central bankers to find out how long it really takes to get their purchases.

How do I find the truth? I am sure it is out there........

robov agNau
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:42pm

@ The World

Excellent synopsis and comments agNau.

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:43pm

Bought some silver bars today

Bought some silver bars today and it really feels great considering all the BS in paper market.

made a loss with March SI but still hope for things to move higher. With phyz its easier to wait :)

Thanks Turd for all you do. Took your advise also and subscribed to Coghlan - Morning report. It is well worth the monthly fee...


Dec 14, 2012 - 12:43pm

Break Time

Holdman Christmas Lights 2010 - Complete Show
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:45pm

Too much whining from newbies

Turd has provided this site and forum for people to learn what's driving the price of gold and silver. Some here are whining about Turd's call on an "event" that will sharply move the price because it hasn't yet happened. To me these are the worst of trolls since they seem only interested in making a "quick buck" and are frustrated they haven't made BIG MONEY yet.

Fuckem. Though Turd has shared some info he has been given he has no control of WHEN it happens. Furthermore, this site is primarily about us educating and helping each other. The FUNDAMENTALS are better than they have ever been. If this isn't enough to encourage you to buy and hold PM's for what is too come then it is YOUR PROBLEM and YOUR GREED that is at issue. Quit whining to Turd that you haven't gotten rich yet.

Holding PM's is primarily about WEALTH PRESERVATION, not making a quick buck.

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:48pm
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:49pm

Debt monetisation

Somebody help me out here.

My understanding is that new US debt is just a new influx into a greater market for US debt, comprised principally of existing issues of past US debt, held as assets by the various investors in such instruments. There is a secondary market for such debt, that functions not dissimilar to the stock market. There is price discovery there, based on demand for existing debt (or lack of such demand).

How can the Fed control the price of debt simply by buying new debt, when the secondary market is probably more relevant?

Gonzalo Lira wrote a couple of years back, that hyperinflation can arrive with lightning speed, once debt starts to get dumped on the secondary market. The Fed would have to print so many dollars to stem a collapse in price, that the world would quickly be awash with trillions of new dollars seeking a home elsewhere, anywhere!

I'm not sure what my question is, I guess I am seeking confirmation as to the monetisation of new debt issuance, as being somewhat of a distraction from the greater picture regarding the pricing of such debt.

Nigel Black
Dec 14, 2012 - 12:55pm


No worries about the recipe... I think Xty and someone else (sorry, cannot remember who) posted this a while back. It is fantastic stuff - enjoy it.

Dec 14, 2012 - 12:59pm


LOL! Been single long?


Dec 14, 2012 - 1:00pm


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