Back From Break

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35. Then....it's on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

492 Comments

Byzantium's picture

@ abguy4

First off, thanks for those charts, they are very useful. They give both price ranges, and timelines. I am going to print them and stick them on the wall. I like too, the way that they shoot from the bottom of the dual channel, to the top. These are good trading prompts.

Next, I note that for many supposed terrorist events in Russia, the western MSM was often quick to drop spurious speculation that the Russian government itself might be behind those attacks (to rally the populace behind emergency powers to tackle the Chechen threat). I thank and salute the western MSM, for bringing to our attention, the kind of depths that governments might stoop to. Cui bono?

rocoach's picture

Mariposa de Oro

I agree.  No argument from me on your points.  

murphy's picture

Nana

The mother was in the news from the get go. Although they misstated that she was a teacher at the school. My poorly worded question was about the father. Where was it reported he was killed as well? The only thing I read about him was that he was remarried and living in Stanford Cn.

Prize Fighter's picture

This governing thing really

This governing thing really isn't that hard.

The solution to poverty is to outlaw the poor.
The solution to inequality is to outlaw the exceptional.
The solution to hunger is to outlaw seed.
The solution to anger is to outlaw freedom.
The solution to violence is to outlaw protection.

Now, who else has a problem I can solve? 
C'mon, don't be shy.
Nobody?
Had enough?
Ah, finally.  Peace and quiet.

 

Nana's picture

Murphy

His fathers death was reported yesterday on NBC and many other news feeds I read thru the day however I turned it all off because I just couldn't listen to it anymore in the early evening. Since then it seems maybe that was misinformation released by the MSM too?

Or maybe the whole plan was not carried out? I don't know but everything points to a false flag.........

BTW- I posted toe links I forgot to post....sorry have had a terrible head cold.....

Nana's picture

This Is Interesting If True

http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-liberal/2012/12/sandy-hook-shooting-autistic-gunman-killed-26-in-2-minutes-mother-killed-at-home-father-in-financial-services-2452238.html

As odd as that is, the story gets more strange (unbelievable) from there: the following is from the Atlantic Wire magazine

“As for the rest of his family, we know his mother taught kindergarten at Sandy Hook Elementary. NBC News is reporting that her body was found in the home they shared, which appears to be located at this Newtown address listed to a Nancy J. Lanza. (The Associated Press reports Nancy as the mother’s name as well.) The two had an “argument” this morning, sources say, after which Lanza reportedly killed his mother and drove her car to the school, along with three guns purchased by and registered to Nancy. His father, is Peter Lanza, a vice president of taxes for GE Energy Financial Services who lives in Stamford, Connecticut, according to The Stamford Advocate. Peter does not appear to have had recent contact with Adam, and neither he nor his brother were connected to the incident. Adam does appear to have had a girlfriend who the AP says has gone missing, along with a friend of his. Stay tuned to our live blog for more updates.” Atlantic Wire

Take a look at that. Another one of these events and the father is connected to the financial industry, this time GE Energy Financial Services. He was a vice president. Another coincidence?

The shooter, allegedly autistic Adam Lanza, went to the school which he had no connection to after killing his mother and went on a rampage.

-------

Batman Massacre - WHY?

http://www.helpfreetheearth.com/news616_batmanwhy.html

According to the report, the shooting suspect's father, Robert Holmes, was scheduled to testify within the next few weeks before a US Senate panel on the largest bank fraud scandal in world history that is now unfolding. This banking fraud threatens to destabilize and destroy the Western banking system.

Robert Holmes is known throughout the global banking community as the creator of one of the most sophisticated computer algorithms ever developed. He developed predictive models for financial credit and fraud risks and internet/online banking fraud models.

Educated at the University of California, Berkeley and Stanford University, Robert Holmes is currently the senior lead scientist with the American credit score company FICO. Every American citizen is beholden to FICO if they need to borrow money.

The massive banking fraud crime that the US Senate is investigating is called the LIBOR Scandal . It involves UK banks who illegally fixed borrowing rates with the compliance of the Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve (which knew about this crime for 4 years and didn’t report it) and other major Western banks.

Robert Holmes, the shooting suspect's father, not only uncovered the true intent of this massive fraud, but has also traced the "hidden" trillions of dollars to the exact bank accounts of the elite classes who have stolen it. In other words, Robert Holmes could NAME NAMES! Those names WOULD AWAKEN THE WORLD to the depth of government and corporate corruption which could include members of Congress, Wall Street, Federal Reserve and EU executives and could even include US Presidential candidates and the British Royal family.

What kind of a "shut up" deal has been worked out with Robert Holmes to save his son from the death penalty?

Byzantium's picture

@ Nana

Without needing to share my own views on 'the authorities,' one theme from your last post is just massive.

Once people cease to trust the authorities, then those same authorities will be blamed for every evil that assails us.

This statement is not made to reprimand the public. Rather, it is a message and a warning to the authorities. Nobody trusts you anymore, and this is a prelude to seeing you as the root of all sin, guilty or not. And with favouritism, corporate lobbying, incompetence and corruption now totally rampant in the establishment, why on earth would anybody trust you?

SilverFocker's picture

Unexplainable

Is the situation with this senseless act on these kids and teachers........We still live in a quasi free society in this country and bad things happen to good people everyday, it's one of the unexplainable pains of life.

All the MSM wants to do is hype about what kind of guns were used........this is hyperbole BS at its finest......take away my 30 rd clips and I replace them with 3 10 round clips......a couple of seconds between rounds means nothing in the setting these kids were in........IMO, it not so much about gun control as it is with society in the world we now live in and how our kids are being subjected to anything and everything straight from the womb.

Crazy people are in every corner of society......gun control will not make them behave differently, it will not stop the constant gang violence or the like, but it will weaken the people........the continued mantra for all these new laws has been "For your Safety", and every time these jack-holes on the hill pass one , I feel less safe and so should you.

While my heart goes out to those families of this unexplainable tragedy....I feel we will get a backlash on the Cause and Effect in the aftermath.

Karankawa's picture

Steward Rhodes, founder of Oath Keepers

The Federal Government is Guilty Accomplice in School Shooting in Newtown Connecticut

http://oathkeepers.org/oath/2012/12/14/the-federal-government-is-guilty-...

I posted this on the other thread, but out of respect for the hard work Stewart Rhodes is doing want everyone to see it and be aware of his organization.

Karankawa

Sneakdoggiedog's picture

@sengfarmer

well said mate.  I never said that figuring it out was easy.  To be fair, there are folks in the financial bus that get paid real coin to do risk management.  What exactly they do is beyond me.  I know they ain't perfect...just looking for big footprints.

benque's picture

rocoach

"I fancy my chances better against a knife-wielding maniac advancing towards me than against an innocuous-looking kid who suddenly pulls an automatic out from under his coat and starts shooting indiscriminately from a couple hundred yards away because he has issues with his momma."

I don't disagree with you, but you aren't a 7 year old, and the knife-wielding maniac isn't 3 times your size, and hiding by the door to jump you from behind as you leave school.

Put it in perspective.  These crazies don't come after you, they come after our kids.  They're afraid of you.

Bollocks's picture

deleted

wrong thread.

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