CoT and Chart Review

Sat, Dec 8, 2012 - 1:29pm

Considering where we began the week and, also considering where we were on Tuesday, last week didn't turn out half bad. Suddenly, the charts look pretty good and the FOMC meets this week. Got your rally hat on? I do!

But first, before we get rolling, check out these two charts. On the left is a 15-minute Feb gold. It shows a classic, non-news BLSBS pattern. After initial hesitation, the news is aggressively gamed by those in charge. Price gets jammed lower to blow out some stops, panic some longs and inspire some fresh shorts. Then, in the blink of an eye, price reverses and everyone playing gets screwed again. Within the hour, calm is restored and it's as if nothing has happened...unless you're one of the unlucky ones who tried to battle Goliath. On the right is a daily chart of the Jan13 crude. LOTS of noise out there regarding Syrian invasions and chemical weapons but none of it seems to be bothering the crude pit. In fact, there seems to be no reason to even pay attention to crude until and unless it breaks UP through $90 or DOWN through $85. Until then, maybe just trade the range with tight stops?

OK, onto the main set of charts. First, let's look at gold. I did not print off a daily chart but you should know that we put another "engulfing candle" on the chart yesterday and this is usually a very good sign (if it's a bullish one...which it is). On Thursday, the Feb13 gold had a high of $1704.80, a low of 1687.10 and a close of 1701.80. Yesterday, the Feb13 saw a high of 1706.90, a low of 1684.10 and a close of 1705.50. Note that Friday's low was lower than Thursday's low and Friday's close exceeded Thursday's high. Quite bullish, indeed.

Look closely at the 4-hour chart but look even more closely at the 2-hour. On the 4-hour, gold has clearly broken through the two-week long downtrend, regardless of how you draw it. On the 2-hour, notice the almost-perfect, reverse head-and-shoulder bottom and the clear resistance at 1710. Taken in concert, gold certainly looks poised for an UP week next with future resistance near 1725 and the old Iron Dome of 1735-1740.

Silver looks nearly identical to gold. It has also quite clearly broken its 2-week downtrend and is poised for a resumption of the rally. With a similar, reverse H&S in place, silver needs to first clear resistance near 33.30 and then move on toward 33.80 and 34.40.

And now on to the CoTs. I recognize that the reports are almost always groomed and painted by The Cartels in order to mislead the reader, nevertheless, I knew that this week's survey would be significant simply due to the scope of open interest reduction and size of the price moves, all related to the expiration of the Dec12 contracts. I was not disappointed.


For the reporting week, price fell nearly $50 while OI fell by a whopping 45,000 contracts (9%). There's really nothing unusual here but you need to see the numbers because they will be quite instructive when we compare them to silver.

Large Spec Net Long = DOWN 34,671

Small spec Net Long = DOWN 6,445

Gold Cartel Net Short = DOWN 41,116

As you can see, it was exactly as expected. For every net long contract a spec sold, The Cartel covered a net short. Some of the internals are interesting, though. For example, the gross short total of The Cartel fell by 46,346. That is a nearly 12% reduction in just one week. It takes their total gross position down to 353,483 and brings the Cartel net short ratio down to 2.6:1. For perspective, at the last price peak near $1800 in early October, The Gold Cartel was short a gross number of 405,520 and had a net short ratio of 2.98:1. At the last, major bottom in mid-August, The Gold Cartel was short 291, 358 and had a net short ratio of 1.98:1. At this point, the gold CoT has reestablished a neutral structure and does not stand in the way of a rally in price.


Boyohboy. This is where the action and intrigue are. First, read the paragraph above again and commit some of those numbers to memory. For full perspective in silver, those gold numbers are very important.

For the reporting week, silver was down about $1.25 and the total OI fell by 9,000 contracts or so (5%). The casual observer would rightly expect the silver CoT structure to show roughly the same changes as gold. The casual observer would be dead wrong.

As noted above, on the price drop last week, the Large Specs in gold shed 34,671 net long contracts. On a similar price drop in silver, the Large Specs shed a grand total of 3. That's right...3! The Large Specs dropped a rather miniscule 880 longs but also covered 877 shorts. That's a net change of 3. The Small Specs played along a little but but still nowhere near what JPM et al would like to see. The Small Specs dumped 1,324 longs but they, too, covered shorts to the tune of 507 for a net change of just 817.

So where was the action? All of it was within The Cartel category. The Cartel members who held some long contracts (not JPM) dumped 4,134 longs and The Cartel members who are short (including JPM) covered 4,954 shorts. So, on the $1.25 price drop, The Silver Cartel only saw their net position fall by 820 contracts and their net short ratio barely budged at 2.52:1. Again, refer back the the gold CoT. The Gold Cartel reduced their net position by over 41,000 contracts or, roughly, 15%. On a similar price move, the Silver Bad Guys were only able to reduce their net short position by 820 or, roughly, 1.3%.

What the heck is going on here? Since time immemorial, price shakeouts like the one last week have been staged to force the specs to sell in order for the banks to cover. During last week's beatdown, the only ones selling were the smaller commercials. The large specs barely budged. This is an extremely unusual and potentially significant development and it continues the trend we've suspected of strong hands becoming the primary longs in silver.

And now, for perspective, check this out. Back on 10/2/12, The Silver Cartel was actively working to cap price below $35.50 in order to keep silver within its 2012 range. It worked, obviously, and price fell below $31 before recovering to current levels. But here's the crazy and wild part:

10/2/12 Large Spec gross longs = 47,236

Current Large Spec gross longs = 50,204

10/2/12 Silver Cartel gross shorts = 93,628

Current Cartel gross shorts = 96,924

And let's throw this log on the pile, too. Since 10/2, the "everyone but JPM" Cartel has also added gross longs, growing from 35,788 to 38,410.

What in the name of Ted Butler is going on here?? Are we finally seeing the beginnings of our "Civil War" in silver? It increasingly appears that JPM is being painted into a corner. Where normally The Big Short would sell into rallies and cover on selloffs, that doesn't seem to be working this time. The non-panic, non-selloff of the Large Specs is extremely encouraging for all of us. I'm so stunned by it that words fail me. Not only last week but in the two months since the early October peak, the Large Specs have been buyers, not sellers. Even from a net perspective, the totals are astonishing. On 10/2 and with price above $35, the Large Specs were net long 38,118. As of last Tuesday and with price below $33, the Large Specs are net long 41,272.

I could go on and on but I think you get the picture. For the first time in memory, the Large Specs seem emboldened and willing to hold paper silver, even in the face of orchestrated Cartel raids. The key now will be the everyone-but-JPM commercials on the next rally. Will they aggressively re-add longs, buying back the 4,000 they sold this week and then even more? Time will tell. For now, this week's silver CoT is very, very encouraging. The charts look good, too, so let's see what the rest of the month brings. I'm still an ardent believer that 2013 is going to be an historic year for silver. The data and price action from this past week only bolsters my confidence.

I hope that everyone has a safe and restful weekend. Please come back on Monday, recharged and ready to go. With the FOMC meeting coming up, the week ahead promises to be wild one.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 9, 2012 - 10:40am


It's a great idea and it makes for an easy 'forward' to others who might find it interesting and discover TFMR in the process.


ClinkinKY TomMack
Dec 9, 2012 - 10:41am

it is real easy

History repeats itself since it is human history and we are humans.


Except for the algorithms and the "humans" who program them

Dec 9, 2012 - 10:42am
Dec 9, 2012 - 10:46am

Why no Inventory Data on the Silver Refineries?

As usual TF has snuck up right behind The Cartel and is positioning to pull their pants down around their ankles.

Confirmation comes from David Zeiler.

BUT, the question that's been gnawing at us is: Why haven't any of you (us?) been tracking silver refinery inventories? When jammed-up as in 1999 refineries will discount what they'll pay. Isn't there trendline data to tell us where they are in the cycle? As 70-80% of silver is from copper mining, could we get a clue here?

Here's more on this conundrum: Do Silver Refineries have enough Silver Inventory? How would You Know?


Dec 9, 2012 - 10:48am

The sheer audacity of it all...

JPMorgan Said to Ask Staff to Help Fund U.K. Tax Settlement

By Dawn Kopecki - Dec 9, 2012 2:59 AM ET

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) asked more than 2,000 current and former employees to contribute to a settlement with the U.K.’s tax authority over their use of an offshore trust for bonus payments, according to a person briefed on the situation.

Employees who participated in the trust were asked to help fund a payment of at least a few hundred million pounds if they want to settle with Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, the U.K. tax authority, the person said, asking not to be named because the talks are private. The bank and workers may pay about 500 million pounds ($802 million) total, the Financial Times reported yesterday, without saying where it got the information.

Corporations including Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), Inc. and Google Inc. have come under attack from British lawmakers and protesters for using complex accounting methods to minimize tax liabilities in the U.K. The government will invest in the part of the tax office that targets multinational companies, Chancellor George Osborne said last week.

The case involving JPMorgan focuses on a Jersey-based trust established 20 years ago, according to the FT. Such entities, typically holding bonus payments that can’t be repatriated without triggering tax payments, are being closed after they were targeted in legislation last year, the FT said.

“Our employee trust has always been transparent to HMRC, and its independent trustee has consistently paid taxes in accordance with U.K. tax law,” JPMorgan said in an e-mailed statement....

Green Lantern
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:08am

Re: Newsletter

Smart. Good marketing!

Dec 9, 2012 - 11:13am


CBO: Feds Borrowing $4.8 billion Per Day in FY 2013, So Far By Matt Cover December 7, 2012

( – The federal government ran a deficit of $292 billion for the first two months of fiscal year 2013 – October and November 2012 – amounting to $4.8 billion of borrowed money each day.

Read more:

Dec 9, 2012 - 11:18am


Natural occurrence of elements is a God-given construct of the earth.

The occurrence of gold and silver above-ground is therefore partly natural (see above), and partly due to man's desire for them.

The current price ratio of gold:silver is a man-made construct. Turd's COT report shows that the men (JPM) behind trying to keep this ratio where it is, is getting more difficult as time passes.

The cartel, to keep the gold:silver ratio at 1:50 must take steep, uncoverable risks to keep people from investing in silver; they know that as silver lowers the ratio, severe demand will occur.

Gold's price is primarily due to its monetary history, though jewelry, religious artifacts, etc. also apply.

Silver used to have a stronger monetary application, as shown by the 5,000 year 16:1 ratio. Over the last 100 years or so, the powerful people who want to control wealth and power have tried to make people forget about silver by crashing its value vis-a-vis gold. While they can deliver real gold while preferring you accept paper, they have avery hard time delivering real silver.

Silver can have a value of 1:1 vs. gold. It's rarity/usefulness could cause that to happen, regardless of what metal is chosen to be the monetary one.

If industrial processes learn to use other items to replace silver, then silver may again be more monetary in the future, as bimetalism has proven to work fine. And, since a lot of above-ground silver no longer is available, the ratio would likely be lower than 16:1 for that reason, along with the actual production ratio shown by another poster earlier.

All things point to higher silver prices. In my opinion, those who try to dissuade people from owning silver have an ulterior motive, that is unlikely to help those who listen to them.

Dec 9, 2012 - 11:22am

You guys

You guys fighting over gold or silver or whichever is the best investment.

Precious metals are an insurance.

You better stop arguing, get up and do something useful, like gardening, building a stone wall, building an hydro-electrical device, chopping some wood, whatever USEFUL.

Nuff said.

ancientmoney balz
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:32am


Agreed. I chopped and stacked my wood all day yesterday. Today is a day of rest . . .

Dec 9, 2012 - 11:42am

re You guys

I think I will go with building a hydro-electric device. Didn't quite know what to do with my day 'till now.

I really just love this guy's outfit, and think it might be in the running for the cult pajamas I have been seeking.

And here is my secret (not any longer) headquarters:

Dec 9, 2012 - 11:54am


Glad I didn't bring my drunken pocket knife to last nights gun fight!

BLOOD on the streets of Turdville-

Dec 9, 2012 - 12:02pm

algos schmalgos

The new pet rock. There always were TPTB's and always will be TPTB just be on the correct side when the SHTF. It is simple in my book fiat versus precious metals. The hard part is fighting to have them 'keep your hands off my stack'. Just see what's going on in Greece, not too many people have gold or silver left to sell. This is because the powers that be there have sold their citizens down the drain with austerity, while they are keeping the bankers whole (or as best they can) with refinancing deals. They sell whatever they have left of value to keep their standard of living in place. This is going to happen in the US. The citizenry will pay to get the bankers out of trouble and many will be forced to liquidate their stacks because of increased taxes and inflation while salaries will not be able to keep up. It will just keep creeping up.

Dec 9, 2012 - 12:15pm

The cyber wars continue..."several foreign countries"

Saudi Arabia Says Aramco Cyberattack Came From Foreign States

By Wael Mahdi - Dec 9, 2012 10:08 AM Arabia blamed unidentified people based outside the kingdom for a cyber attack against state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. that aimed at disrupting production from the world’s largest exporter of crude.ETSaudi

More than 30,000 computers were compromised or affected by a so-called “spear-phishing” attack from Aug. 15, raising concerns about the threat hackers may pose to output at the company known as Saudi Aramco, Abdullah al-Saadan, vice president for corporate planning, said today at a news conference in the eastern city of Dhahran.

Major General Mansour Al-Turki, a spokesman for theInterior Ministry, declined to identify any of the “several foreign countries” from which the attack originated because the investigation is still in progress. “The attack failed to reach its ultimate goal, which was to stop the flow of Saudi oil,” he said at the conference.

Saudi Arabia is the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies 40 percent of the world’s crude. The kingdom has accused Shiite-led Iran, a fellow OPEC member, of interfering in the affairs of Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, home to three-fifths of the world’s proven oil reserves. Iran denies the charge and accuses Sunni Muslim rulers in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia of discriminating against Shiites.

Panetta’s Warning

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and other American officials have suggested that the Aramco attack is evidence of a brewing global cyber war, one in which countries including Iran are improving their ability to target companies and governments. The virus destroyed data on servers and erased hard-drives on individual computers....

Dec 9, 2012 - 12:35pm


Inside The Bank Of England's Gold Vault

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/09/2012 11:05 -0500

For those who think any documented presentation of the physical gold held by the world's oldest central bank usually takes place on a movie set in Burbank, CA here is a video featuring University of Nottingham's chemistry professor Professor Martyn Poliakoff (of all people) from within the bowels of the world's second largest gold repository supposedly disproving this (whose comment "one's first reaction is that it can't possibly be real" may be far more accurate than he can possibly imagine). Why the BOE would change its long held tradition of keeping its gold miles away from the public's eye (very much the same way Bob Pisani's dramatic descent into the GLD vault was a straight-to-DVD B-grade thriller) is anyone's guess, especially now that Goldman is about to take the helm of this most venerable of money-printing institutions. But we are delighted they have: we are confident with this precedent set, that the New York Fed will promptly grant some US chemistry professor the right to inspect and "document" the hundreds of tons of flood-resistant gold it too holds safely 80 feet underground, it not a member of the German parliament of course. Finally, if anyone can see Bundesbank's gold bars, please raise your hand.


Martyn Poliakoff: "It's just sitting here doing nothing"

Yes, and a lot more "nothing" than the way you mean...

Dec 9, 2012 - 12:36pm

Bush Lied People Died !

I'm so sick of that LIE ! Is it possible that some of Asad's poison gas came from Iraq in 2003 ? It all comes from Russia ! Why doesn't Russia catch some heat for providing Sarrin to these unstable states ? I hope this comment didn't offend you, Indenture ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Life's A Gas World Tour

Dec 9, 2012 - 12:40pm

Andy Maguire's trading strategy

I took careful notes during a recent Coghlan Capital webinar where Andy Maguire talked for 20 minutes about manipulation. He didn’t reveal much about his trading strategy for gold, except that (1) it’s based on his own method for establishing trend lines right around the London A.M. and P.M. gold fixes, and (2) that he couldn’t do it if he weren’t based in London, which probably means he’s also picking up a feel for the market chatting with other traders. In short, a hard strategy for someone else to duplicate unless they’re willing to relocate. Which is not the worse of all ideas. I lived there for a very fun year once.

BTW a trading strategy is just that - a short-term (intraday) trading strategy. Long term he’s bullish.

Dec 9, 2012 - 1:09pm

Hey, Bollocks !

Who is that old fart with the Afro and who asked him to editorialize about the gold being "dead" ? I'm more impressed with the shelves .... each one holds five tons of gold vertically ? Excellent for a preppers storage room ?

Dec 9, 2012 - 1:15pm


Right up your alley?

Interview with Steven Leeb

Daily Bell: Your latest book is latest Red Alert, co-authored by Greg Dorsey. What's that about?

Dr. Stephen Leeb: Red Alert is basically about American complacency as regards China. It argues that eventually we are going to need renewable energy and we are going to need a lot of it because hydrocarbons and non-renewables are really peaking – not necessarily right now but even coal is going to peak in the next decade or 15 years. I think we are really going to be left in the lurch unless we have massive amounts of renewables and that China gets this in spades.

The problem with developing a society that runs on renewables is it takes a tremendous amount of resources. For example, the most useful form of solar is photovoltaics. Now, photovoltaic requires silver and there's just not that much silver in the world. Windmills and wind turbines require heavy rare earth and China has them. Building out a smart grid will require massive amounts of copper, as will their organizational efforts.

So the gist of this book is that China gets it, they understand the need for renewables and they also understand that resources in this world, whether it be oil or copper or silver, are scarce and getting more scarce. In the current economy, the developed world has seen no growth over the past five years, yet oil prices this year are likely to be close to record levels on average throughout the year. When you see record level prices with no growth, especially commodity prices, that's unheard of. The only explanation is major scarcity. Ditto for food prices. Ditto for almost all commodity prices.

The developed world has not seen five years of stagnant growth, no growth, since the depression, yet commodities, which are traditionally cyclical, have come down. But if you take something like copper, it's literally three-and-a-half times the price it averaged in the 1990s. That's a sign of massive scarcity. It's all over the board.

China right now is preparing to build out an infrastructure that will take them through the 21st century. They think long term. China does not think in nanoseconds. They think in 100-year-old intervals, if you will, 20- and 30-year intervals. This country is unfortunately complacent and it thinks very short term, quarter-to-quarter, election-to-election, etc. We're at a tremendous disadvantage because of that. By the time we get around to realizing what we are supposed to do the resources won't really be there. It takes tremendous amounts of critical resources and minerals that are all scarce in order to develop the kind of infrastructure we're going to need to thrive in the 21st century. It really is that simple and China does get it.

edit- good stuff

The world is far too complex and for computers that are faster than anything we can currently even imagine, I said that back in 1999 and that is still true today. We are trying to attack nature with computational speeds that pale in comparison with things that you see out there in the world. We need creative input. We need to use computers as tools rather than the sole source of invention.

We still think that information technology is the answer to all our problems and it isn't. It's like all the new psychotropic drugs, neurological drugs – in fact, most drug companies have given up trying to produce neurological drugs because of the way they try and do it. They look at all these different combinations of chemicals, etc., and our bodies are too complex. If you look at our DNA, you look at anything, and you try to count the number of combinations, they exceed the elementary particles in the universe. We are not going to understand this no matter how fast our computers get. You can build a computer the size of the universe and you probably aren't going to understand half the complexity of what is going on around us.

The only way to get anywhere is if you sit around and you have these intuitions about things. Einstein didn't have a computer in front of him, as did many other brilliant minds. The kinds of answers we need today are not going to be born in a computer; they will be born in human ingenuity and coming to grips with things. I think the Chinese realize that. They have a picture of the world that is so much clearer than our picture. Their picture is one of growing scarcity of critical commodities. They are not going to deal with that by trying to use computers to come up with solutions. They are going to take what they have and take what exists right now and build it out, go from there. If they can improve it they will. We just don't get it. It's very worrisome. Computers are great tools but our century, our last 20 years, could be described as the apotheosis of the computer and that's a very bad god to worship.

ancientmoney murphy
Dec 9, 2012 - 1:34pm


The Chinese have played the western "elite" now for the last 40 years or so. It really ramped up when Clinton was diddling around in the WH. All his so-called trade agreements were nothing but foolhardy ways to pay-off big business, by allowing them to shift production to China.

We pay the price today with a hollowed-out manufacturing base, no factory workers (outside the auto/heavy machinery sector), no factories, or ability to build and operate them, as our capital base has been destroyed, too.

The western bankers have spent the last 20 years trying to keep their people from discovering how they traitorously have shifted power and wealth to the east. This continues today. The bankers are willing to allow gold and silver to ship east, to keep the Chinese from flooding their dollars and bonds back west, which would destroy their precious debt-based, fiat, fractional-reserve system of stealing.

As Turd has said, someday, the Chinese will roll out a gold-backed currency. They will ship useful stuff west only in exchange for useful stuff--food, grain, silver, copper, gold, etc. No more dollars.

The current, western debt-based system allows the Chinese to buy and stockpile many commodities at prices well below true value. They will use it until the advantage no longer exists, then the real future will begin.

Dec 9, 2012 - 1:42pm
Dec 9, 2012 - 1:49pm


Yep, agree with you 100%. Just got done reading the rest of the article, so much is spot on. Like you say....

Again, China gets it. In my opinion, and I have asked Chinese people this – of all the resources that they want and that are scarce, they'll settle for an abundance of two. Water, which they don't have very much of and that's something that could bring down China, and gold. They know if they have enough gold, anything that they don't have they'll be able to get. We think our dollar will always be able to buy scarce commodities? Forget it. When commodities get scarce enough you will want another commodity for it. As they become scarcer, gold will become more the de facto commodity in the world. In China, incidentally, they are setting an ETF in gold as we speak. They want as much gold as they can possibly get without disturbing the market.

He also makes some on point remarks about silver comparing it to oil.

Dec 9, 2012 - 2:10pm

was there gold in that video?

All I could do was stare at his hair. A home for the fleas, a nest for the bees ...

Hair - Song Hair
Dec 9, 2012 - 2:10pm

something is brewing...

just a heads up:

some German online precious metals dealers have raised their prices by up to 20 eurocents per ounce of silver in the last two hours... all this while markets are closed.

Do they know something we don't know? Are they just wild-guess-anticipating a rise at the open?

silver66 murphy
Dec 9, 2012 - 2:12pm

China and H2O

Murphy, I don't think China is a concerned as you may think about water. They are aware of their water issue but they have out sourced it. I read a analyst report a while ago about this(I can't find it right now, but if I can I will link).The jist of the report was by buying food from Brazil(soy etc) and a few other countries they don't need as much internal water supply. They let Brazil use their water and send over food. I believe it is around 14-16% of annual consumption that they have off loaded to other countries water supply. That is a significant amount of stress of your aquifers and rivers that is relived.

If they are going to have the currency/trade settlement system of the future then they can assume those countries will still trade with them?


Dec 9, 2012 - 2:20pm

Brazil soy report

Not the one I was looking for but very good at discussing their growth to China going forward


Dec 9, 2012 - 2:36pm


In Leeb's article he mentions this guy. It looks like some mathematical analysis that's more confusing than anything that I could comprehend. Maybe interesting to you?

Dr. Ronald Coifman

Chief Technology Officer, Board Member

Ronald Coifman is Chief Technology Officer and Board Member of The PlainSight Group and is responsible for the development of PlainSight's intellectual property portfolio and its application to various commercial opportunities. As one of the world's leading mathematicians, Dr. Coifman has over 35 years of experience in technology development and commercialization. His research focuses on nonlinear Fourier analysis, wavelet theory, numerical analysis and scattering theory. Dr. Coifman continues to create next-generation mathematical tools for efficient computation and transcriptions of complex digital data, with commercial applications to financial analysis and audio and imaging feature extraction.

Dr. Coifman is the Phillips Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at Yale University. He was awarded the National Medal of Science by President Clinton and has been a member of DARPA's Advisory Board. Dr. Coifman received his doctorate from the University of Geneva.

Dec 9, 2012 - 2:37pm

By Design With An Agenda

The PTB have been implementing their designed agenda to de-industrialize the U.S. by paying off the traitorous scum (CON)gress and (SIN)ate for a few decades.

Dec 9, 2012 - 2:38pm

China and solar PV companies

Of interest on China and silver PV demand (which is why I'm sceptical of some of the forecasts on industrial demand - but not investment demand - for silver in the future). How long will they prop up these loss-making dud firms?


“Yingli Green Energy has posted a substantial loss for Q3 2012. The net loss of U.S. $152.6 million is an increase on the loss of $92 million in Q2, and $29 million in Q3 2011.”

“The analysts forecast that about 180 existing module manufacturers will either expire or acquiesce to acquisition by 2015. The report estimates that 54 of the 180 ill-fated firms will come from China. Most of these are so-called “solar zombies” – companies with manufacturing capacities of less than 300 MW that have operated with the advantage of government. China’s number of ill-fated firms could be much higher if not for an aggressive downstream build-out that will prop up select domestic suppliers.”




Dec 9, 2012 - 2:39pm


THE WEEKEND VIGILANTE DECEMBER 8, 2012 / By Jeff Berwick / December 8, 2012

Hello from Acapulco, Mexico,

A few of us vigilantes were out and about carousing last night when I decided to step out of the beachside disco Paradise, a place that has a bungee jump with a landing spot in a pool inside the club. Try getting a license to do that in the USSA.

Something unusual was happening outside. There were a few police cars, a lot of cops and a big crowd had formed around them. Being naturally curious I went and checked it out. As I pushed my way through all the people who were yelling at the cops I noticed they were all surrounding my scooter and a toe truck was backing up towards it. Many of the people were admonishing the cops to go away.

Knowing almost everyone in that area of Acapulco the people started to fill me in. One of my friends who owns a sidewalk beer stall called me over. ”They want to tow your scooter,” he said, motioning at all the police in their bulletproof vests and machine guns.

“Why?” I asked, curiously.

“They say it is because you parked on the sidewalk… we’ve all been trying to stop them,” he said.

I looked back to the police and said, in Spanglish, “You are going to steal my scooter because I parked on the sidewalk? Everyone parks on the sidewalk. I’ve been parking in this exact same spot for the last year.”

The cops didn’t answer and mostly averted their eyes so my friend explained, “It’s the new mayor. He wants all scooters to be parked on the street.”

“Oh, he does eh?” I retorted, “If that criminal doesn’t like it why doesn’t he come here and move it himself? Why is he sending throngs of people with machine guns to steal my scooter?” I admonished to the cops.



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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)