CoT and Chart Review

383
Sat, Dec 8, 2012 - 1:29pm

Considering where we began the week and, also considering where we were on Tuesday, last week didn't turn out half bad. Suddenly, the charts look pretty good and the FOMC meets this week. Got your rally hat on? I do!

But first, before we get rolling, check out these two charts. On the left is a 15-minute Feb gold. It shows a classic, non-news BLSBS pattern. After initial hesitation, the news is aggressively gamed by those in charge. Price gets jammed lower to blow out some stops, panic some longs and inspire some fresh shorts. Then, in the blink of an eye, price reverses and everyone playing gets screwed again. Within the hour, calm is restored and it's as if nothing has happened...unless you're one of the unlucky ones who tried to battle Goliath. On the right is a daily chart of the Jan13 crude. LOTS of noise out there regarding Syrian invasions and chemical weapons but none of it seems to be bothering the crude pit. In fact, there seems to be no reason to even pay attention to crude until and unless it breaks UP through $90 or DOWN through $85. Until then, maybe just trade the range with tight stops?

OK, onto the main set of charts. First, let's look at gold. I did not print off a daily chart but you should know that we put another "engulfing candle" on the chart yesterday and this is usually a very good sign (if it's a bullish one...which it is). On Thursday, the Feb13 gold had a high of $1704.80, a low of 1687.10 and a close of 1701.80. Yesterday, the Feb13 saw a high of 1706.90, a low of 1684.10 and a close of 1705.50. Note that Friday's low was lower than Thursday's low and Friday's close exceeded Thursday's high. Quite bullish, indeed.

Look closely at the 4-hour chart but look even more closely at the 2-hour. On the 4-hour, gold has clearly broken through the two-week long downtrend, regardless of how you draw it. On the 2-hour, notice the almost-perfect, reverse head-and-shoulder bottom and the clear resistance at 1710. Taken in concert, gold certainly looks poised for an UP week next with future resistance near 1725 and the old Iron Dome of 1735-1740.

Silver looks nearly identical to gold. It has also quite clearly broken its 2-week downtrend and is poised for a resumption of the rally. With a similar, reverse H&S in place, silver needs to first clear resistance near 33.30 and then move on toward 33.80 and 34.40.

And now on to the CoTs. I recognize that the reports are almost always groomed and painted by The Cartels in order to mislead the reader, nevertheless, I knew that this week's survey would be significant simply due to the scope of open interest reduction and size of the price moves, all related to the expiration of the Dec12 contracts. I was not disappointed.

GOLD

For the reporting week, price fell nearly $50 while OI fell by a whopping 45,000 contracts (9%). There's really nothing unusual here but you need to see the numbers because they will be quite instructive when we compare them to silver.

Large Spec Net Long = DOWN 34,671

Small spec Net Long = DOWN 6,445

Gold Cartel Net Short = DOWN 41,116

As you can see, it was exactly as expected. For every net long contract a spec sold, The Cartel covered a net short. Some of the internals are interesting, though. For example, the gross short total of The Cartel fell by 46,346. That is a nearly 12% reduction in just one week. It takes their total gross position down to 353,483 and brings the Cartel net short ratio down to 2.6:1. For perspective, at the last price peak near $1800 in early October, The Gold Cartel was short a gross number of 405,520 and had a net short ratio of 2.98:1. At the last, major bottom in mid-August, The Gold Cartel was short 291, 358 and had a net short ratio of 1.98:1. At this point, the gold CoT has reestablished a neutral structure and does not stand in the way of a rally in price.

SILVER

Boyohboy. This is where the action and intrigue are. First, read the paragraph above again and commit some of those numbers to memory. For full perspective in silver, those gold numbers are very important.

For the reporting week, silver was down about $1.25 and the total OI fell by 9,000 contracts or so (5%). The casual observer would rightly expect the silver CoT structure to show roughly the same changes as gold. The casual observer would be dead wrong.

As noted above, on the price drop last week, the Large Specs in gold shed 34,671 net long contracts. On a similar price drop in silver, the Large Specs shed a grand total of 3. That's right...3! The Large Specs dropped a rather miniscule 880 longs but also covered 877 shorts. That's a net change of 3. The Small Specs played along a little but but still nowhere near what JPM et al would like to see. The Small Specs dumped 1,324 longs but they, too, covered shorts to the tune of 507 for a net change of just 817.

So where was the action? All of it was within The Cartel category. The Cartel members who held some long contracts (not JPM) dumped 4,134 longs and The Cartel members who are short (including JPM) covered 4,954 shorts. So, on the $1.25 price drop, The Silver Cartel only saw their net position fall by 820 contracts and their net short ratio barely budged at 2.52:1. Again, refer back the the gold CoT. The Gold Cartel reduced their net position by over 41,000 contracts or, roughly, 15%. On a similar price move, the Silver Bad Guys were only able to reduce their net short position by 820 or, roughly, 1.3%.

What the heck is going on here? Since time immemorial, price shakeouts like the one last week have been staged to force the specs to sell in order for the banks to cover. During last week's beatdown, the only ones selling were the smaller commercials. The large specs barely budged. This is an extremely unusual and potentially significant development and it continues the trend we've suspected of strong hands becoming the primary longs in silver.

And now, for perspective, check this out. Back on 10/2/12, The Silver Cartel was actively working to cap price below $35.50 in order to keep silver within its 2012 range. It worked, obviously, and price fell below $31 before recovering to current levels. But here's the crazy and wild part:

10/2/12 Large Spec gross longs = 47,236

Current Large Spec gross longs = 50,204

10/2/12 Silver Cartel gross shorts = 93,628

Current Cartel gross shorts = 96,924

And let's throw this log on the pile, too. Since 10/2, the "everyone but JPM" Cartel has also added gross longs, growing from 35,788 to 38,410.

What in the name of Ted Butler is going on here?? Are we finally seeing the beginnings of our "Civil War" in silver? It increasingly appears that JPM is being painted into a corner. Where normally The Big Short would sell into rallies and cover on selloffs, that doesn't seem to be working this time. The non-panic, non-selloff of the Large Specs is extremely encouraging for all of us. I'm so stunned by it that words fail me. Not only last week but in the two months since the early October peak, the Large Specs have been buyers, not sellers. Even from a net perspective, the totals are astonishing. On 10/2 and with price above $35, the Large Specs were net long 38,118. As of last Tuesday and with price below $33, the Large Specs are net long 41,272.

I could go on and on but I think you get the picture. For the first time in memory, the Large Specs seem emboldened and willing to hold paper silver, even in the face of orchestrated Cartel raids. The key now will be the everyone-but-JPM commercials on the next rally. Will they aggressively re-add longs, buying back the 4,000 they sold this week and then even more? Time will tell. For now, this week's silver CoT is very, very encouraging. The charts look good, too, so let's see what the rest of the month brings. I'm still an ardent believer that 2013 is going to be an historic year for silver. The data and price action from this past week only bolsters my confidence.

I hope that everyone has a safe and restful weekend. Please come back on Monday, recharged and ready to go. With the FOMC meeting coming up, the week ahead promises to be wild one.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  383 Comments


Dec 9, 2012 - 10:47pm

And lets start the week with this

I'm off to bed. I want to see 33.33+ and 1710+ when I awake.

indosil
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:01pm

Goldman Monti To quit at Year's End

Goldman Monti To quit at Year's End.............interesting turn of events..PIG just shot up......Metals down a little

Mudsharkbytes
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:02pm

Oh No…

Far Side Alert!

Two of my favorites:

foggyroad
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:02pm

TF

I forget who posted this thought but, it clicked with me, it went like this "metals will rally through till just before O's inauguration" it seemed a good point.

Edit. thanks for the chuckle, humor is the best medicine.

treefrog OhOh
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:05pm

@OhOh

"It seems that the Chinese are now shipping world class industrial goods as opposed to walmart widgets."

i'd make that " ...world class industrial goods as well as walmart widgets."

what's next? military arms components? photovoltaic screens? oh, wait! they're already doing that.

we are so profoundly screwed. :<

foggyroad
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:09pm

Murphy posted this I think

Weird Terrorist Names
Mr. Fix kingboo
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:11pm

RE @ kingboo

I cannot believe how nearly identical our stories are. From the way you bought your house, to the way you enlarged it, to marrying a professional woman, but you had all the money and credit, to the neighborhood that you live in, the similarities our remarkable. Of course I am grateful, as the group that I've known for quite a few years, I am literally the last man standing. Between 8 to 5 years ago, I worked as a foreman on a crew of men who installed prefabricated houses, and often built them from scratch as well. When the economy tanked, my employer went bankrupt, and went from being a millionaire, to living off his mother and father. The men that I worked with, cannot find employment, and after their unemployment benefits ran out, they have each found a way to survive off welfare, disability, food stamps, section 8, and a host of other freebie programs that my tax dollars pay for. Isn't it wonderful to live here in the socialist republic of New York? I am the only one left that goes to work every day. My wife has spent several years trying to find employment, but has found nothing that pays better than minimum wage, and she used to be an executive assistant to some of the richest men in this country. In fact, when we met, she earned several times what I did. The longer I spent time here on this site, the more I realize that birds of a feather do flock together. I am truly astounded at the similarities I find between the people that post here. I find it truly unfortunate however that my life is completely devoid of any people that I meet in my daily routine that have a clue. Thank you for your post, it inspired a little bit of desperately needed gratitude, after a long hard day at work, there have been so many in a row, I have lost count. I think my last day off was back in February.

tmosley treefrog
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:12pm

Not really.  Lighten

Not really. Lighten regulations, and we can buy the capital equipment we need from them for next to nothing. My own company recently bought three reactors from China for $30,000. Just one of the same type of reactor from the US would cost about $170,000.

Now we are pumping money into the local economy by exporting products around the world (and for use in the US as well).

Loss of our industrial base just means it will take longer to catch back up. The only thing standing in the way is the government.

foggyroad
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:27pm

Irish comedian

Danny Bhoy: Live in Montreal (Full Version)
Mr. Fix
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:33pm

@ tmosley,

"The only thing standing in the way is the government."

It's been a thorn in my ass since I was a teenager.

But I have never seen it conspire so completely to shut down all industry like it has in the past few years.

And by all accounts, it's going to get far worse before it gets better, if at all.

I really believe our own government is doing everything it can to literally destroy free enterprise.

As a matter of fact, I think it died a long time ago.

Since I employed a strategy of staying below their radar,

life has gotten considerably easier,

but it greatly limits me as to how large I can grow my enterprise.

Being a “one-man show” sucks.

But every time, and many many times, I have tried to expand far beyond that,

the regulators have swooped in and shut me down.

That is not freedom,

at times it's been pure hell.

tmosley Mr. Fix
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:41pm

Mr. Fix, I agree.  My own

Mr. Fix,

I agree. My own attempt at private enterprise right out of college was stymied by regulations. I am at the point in my life where I really, REALLY want to own my own business, but I just can't justify it with the current regulatory atmosphere. It is a pain in the ass doing it even with OPM in a low reg state like Texas.

foggyroad
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:46pm

Entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurship and small businesses drive growth in the economy.

The gov. should bend over backwards to encourage and facilitate small business.

Incentives, ie. tax holiday, startup capital access, from banking sector and venture capitalists should be encouraged via policy changes.

Red tape, and fees removed and streamlined.

Basically, just get out of the way of energetic enterprising people, and employment will improve.

Really not all that difficult to figure out.

Common sense really.

Mr. Fix
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:50pm

@ tmosley,

In New York, the regulators swoop in like vampires, and you know they just want payoffs.

Then they'll tell you that it is not their problem that you're undercapitalized,

when the only thing you can't afford to pay for is them.

It's nothing but a protection racket here.

Nothing gets done here, unless you can buy a politician first.

I'm just morally opposed to supporting scumbags.

Mr. Fix
Dec 9, 2012 - 11:54pm

@ foggyroad

"Common sense really. "

Which is why it will never happen.

rocoach
Dec 10, 2012 - 12:32am

@foggyroad

He's Scottish, not Irish. Different countries. Like calling a Canadian a Mexican...

thurd aye
Dec 10, 2012 - 12:34am

Oh yeh.We believe you.Only five years too late.

Taxpayers 'will be shielded from future bank failures', say regulators
  • New proposals aim to ensure taxpayers do not have to pick up the bill if major banks fail in the future
  • Would see shareholders and creditors on both sides of the Atlantic forced to take the losses.

Regulators will today publish proposals aimed at ensuring taxpayers do not have to pick up the bill if major banks fail.

Shareholders and creditors on both sides of the Atlantic would be forced to take the losses in the event of another banking crash.

It marks a significant shift from the situation in which UK taxpayers stumped up billions to rescue stricken lenders such as Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group.





Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2245690/Financial-crisis-Taxpayers-shielded-future-bank-failures-say-regulators.html#ixzz2EckHUArU

Mr. Fix
Dec 10, 2012 - 12:38am

A re- post from an old Ayn Rand thread:

If you hate long posts, just skip this one.

I wrote this months ago, it's a story of how "free enterprise" has worked for me.

As I stated in the previous post,
I had literally no knowledge of what Ayn Rand wrote, or believed,
prior to this past week.
Aside from a few people using “I am John Gault”
or, “where is John Gault” next to their avatar on forum,
I had no idea what they were talking about.
I did however remember the name.
I've never seen or heard of Dagny Taggart untill reading the comments here on
TFMR. It took a forum entitled “who is Dagney Taggart” for me to look into it.
For those who watched the movie, entitled Atlas shrugged part one,

allow me to share in just how many ways it hit me personally.
I will say right up front,
Hank Reardon is me.
At the risk of taking up too much space,
I am going to tell you why.
As a child, I was the type of little boys who was incredibly curious as to how things worked.
I remember getting into trouble a lot for dismantling all kinds of appliances and gadgets, just to find out what was in them and why they did what they did.
I wanted to understand.
By the time I was eight or nine, I was doing this to cars.
When my father succeeded in demolishing a 1969 Mustang convertible, by wrapping it around a telephone pole back in 1970, I told him that if he would buy me a hood, bumper, a radiator, and a grill,
then I would get his car running for him again.
He bought the parts, and I fixed the car.
I was eight years old at the time.
By age 12,
I could remove an engine from a Volkswagen, completely dismantle it,
replace broken connecting rods, and smashed Pistons, reassemble the engine,
and put it back in the car,
and drive the car.
And I could do this entirely by myself, and I did.
I started buying and selling cars for the cash that I could get,
fixing them up for a profit.
By high school, I had a reputation as someone who could fix anything,
and would buy and sell cars between teachers, and classmates,
and was the go to guy for anything that needed repairs.
I still have some of the same customers today.
In the course of buying and selling my cars, I was informed by New York State,
that according to the law, there was a five car limit as to how many I could buy and sell without being in violation of the law.
I learned to put as many as I could in other people's names.
I learned eventually this is dangerous, since my own mother stole a car from me.
Apparently, she violated no law's, since it was signed over to her.
This was my first experience with an obvious separation with the difference between legal and moral.
Then I was told by New York State that it was illegal to simply drive around fixing other people's cars, since under New York State law you need to have a registered automotive repair shop. Aside from the fact that you need a commercial property to do this, at the time you needed to pay a $5000 fee for little green sign to hang on your door.
So, another business down the drain.
So I bought a limousine, and restored it from the ground up,
and started a limousine service.
This was a lot of fun, and the money was good,
however eventually a law was passed that required all limousines to be registered with the taxi and limousine commission,
and legally, the car needed to be less than 10 years old.
Mine was 11. And although they effectively put me out of business,
I continue to drive that car for another 15 years.
As a child I learned how to play the piano, and to sing.
I was a member of many different bands,
and for years, my only steady work was on Friday and Saturday nights,
playing at a local bar.
Eventually, the police started hanging out directly across the street from that bar,
and pulled over every car that left the bar.
Eventually, most of the customers lost their driver's licenses,
and the bars that I work in, closed for business.
It became virtually impossible to earn a living as a musician.
So I started an arcade,
found an old house that was commercially zoned,
work out a deal with a vendor that had a whole bunch of video games.
For a cut, he could keep his games at my house,
and lots of people would come and play and put money in them.
I got half.
Building that business from scratch, took me about a year to make it profitable.
I would work overnights as a cashier at the local 711 in order to pay my bills.
For that year, I only slept about two nights a week.
Then, for a great idea, I decided to sell prepackaged Stewart's sandwiches,
and soda.
I also bought bags of potato chips and cookies.
5 min. after I added snacks to the sign out front,
I was closed down by the board of health.
I took away all of the snacks,
but then the building inspector came and found enough violations to make sure
that I couldn't possibly afford to open my doors again.
Another business, out of business.
So I bought an old van,
and advertise myself as man with a van.
I would pick up and deliver anything from packages, to pianos and refrigerators,
and eventually worked my way up to moving entire households.
I got to the point where I was doing a New York to Florida run every weekend.
I would load my van, and the trailer it towing, (which I built), on a Friday afternoon,
be in Florida by Saturday afternoon, and be back in New York by Sunday night.
Once again, I could go round the clock without sleeping.
One day the Department of Transportation answered my ad,
and wanted to see my truck.
I told them, I don't have a truck if I need one I will rent it.
Yes, they have a law against that too!
They wanted $5000 every six months for “insurance”
by now, I knew what an extortion racket was when I saw one.
So I gave it all in break for a while, and got a job restoring antique cars and trucks.
After couple of years of that, I got tired of breathing paint fumes all day every day,
and an old car repair customer of mine that did home renovations hired me to help him build a house.
After doing everything by myself, I realized that I really didn't need him.
So I started building my own houses, ( as a company foreman)
and hired as many people as I needed to get the job done.
Needless to say, four years ago the bottom fell out of that market,
so I decided to become an independent home improvement contractor.
I had certain customers, that absolutely required that everything be legal,
so I went for all of the town, county, and state licenses,
and got all of the associated bonding and permits.
Seeing as I live only a few feet from the County line,
this required twice as many permits and licenses and insurance
that so I can work both sides of that line.
I had seen on many instances where they have goon squads driving around
looking for contractors who do not have the right credentials,
and when found, they are arrested, their vehicles and tools are impounded,
and sold off at auction.
Of course, this is pure theft
it is also another extortion racket to make sure that everybody pays the state
their proper fees.
After going to the right classes which were really only directed towards how to pay all the fees,
I finally got myself “legal”
the following week, I got a letter from the federal government
they wrote themselves a new law saying that now I needed to attend classes
and get a separate federal license on how to “remove lead paint"
and I was informed, that if I work on any house that was built before 1972
or was it 82?
I would be in violation of federal law.
I've had enough,
all my permits have expired,
they are just too damn expensive.
And there simply isn't enough work to go around to support that expense.
The other problem, is that I am constantly trying to underbid illegal migrant workers
who will work for below minimum wage.
Now back to Hank Reardon,
he struck me as a man who was willing to do what ever it took to get the job done.
I am that man.
It actually brought tears to my eyes when he was forced to sign over all of his businesses to people that had obviously not earned them.
Due to state mandates, all of my businesses have gone down the tubes.
And I do not think this is in any way "public protection",
like I stated before it is pure extortion.
In 40 years of doing business, I have never been sued by a customer.
When I met Hank Reardon's family,
it reminded me much of my own.
They always expect the money to be there, and don't really seem to know or care
where it came from or what I had to do to get it.
Many of the conversations in this movie I have had word for word.
Especially with my wife,
and particularly with Dagny. Yes, just change the faces and the places, and this story is the same. I love when he told her after their pursuit of the motor's inventor, how he needed to get back to work, that was particularly key for me.

Seems like I've always got to get back to work........

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/569883#comment-569883

thurd aye
Dec 10, 2012 - 12:39am

Lower winds predicted

Dreaded Brussels sprouts may be forced off the Christmas menu after 70% price rise

Britain’s children got some welcome news about the family Christmas dinner yesterday....Brussels sprouts are unlikely to be on the menu after a massive price rise.

For a 69 per cent increase in the cost of the unpopular vegetable means families could well give them a miss this year, according to a new report yesterday.

The cost of Christmas dinner has soared by more than double the increase in wages over the past five years, the latest research showed.





Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2245634/Dreaded-Brussels-sprouts-forced-Christmas-menu-70-cent-price-rise.html#ixzz2EcmYoatO

thurd aye
Dec 10, 2012 - 12:47am

Dickbrain alert!

Time to put genetically modified food in our shops, says minister in charge of farming
  • Environment Secretary Owen Paterson has said there are 'real environmental benefits' to GM technology
  • Mr Paterson claimed public concerns about genetically modified food were unfounded

Genetically modified food should be grown and sold widely in Britain, according to the Environment Secretary.

Owen Paterson, the Cabinet minister in charge of farming, has spoken out in favour of increased use of GM technology in food, saying there were ‘real environmental benefits’.

Any move by ministers to loosen controls on growth of GM crops, to avoid British dependency on imports for example, would be extremely divisive.

But in a newspaper interview, he claimed public concerns about GM were unfounded, dismissing the views of opponents of the technology as ‘humbug’.





Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2245686/Time-genetically-modified-food-shops-says-minister-charge-farming.html#ixzz2EcobcCIe

thurd aye
Dec 10, 2012 - 1:10am

18th century half cent coin

18th century half cent coin that lay at back of cupboard for 50 years expected to reach £30,000 at auction
  • The coin, dating back to 1796, was one of only 1,400 ever made and will go under the hammer next month
  • It was part of a collection belonging to Oxford student Mark Hillary, who died in 1963
  • It was found at the back of a makeshift 'cupboard' made from glued together matchboxes.

A rare two centuries old coin found in the back of a cupboard after being hidden away for five decades is expected to fetch £30,000 at auction.

The half cent American coin, which dates back to 1796 and is one of only 1,400 ever made, will go under the hammer in Salisbury, Wiltshire, next month.

It was part of a collection which once belonged to Oxford student Mark Hillary who was killed in a climbing accident in Greece at the age of 20 in 1963.

Valuable: The rare half cent American coin that is expected to fetch £30,000 at auction

The coin, which is still in mint condition, remained hidden in Hilary's homemade cabinet of glued together matchboxes until members of his family found it recently.

It was struck in pure copper at the Philadelphia Mint and designed by the mint's first Chief Engraver Robert Scott.





Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2245556/Coining-18th-century-half-cent-coin-lay-cupboard-50-years-expected-react-30-000-auction.html#ixzz2EcuWiBoo

foggyroad rocoach
Dec 10, 2012 - 1:22am

@ rocoach---Si Siegnor!

I know He's Scottish, I worked with a 'Scott' for years and when people couldn't understand what he said, I always referred to his accent as Irish to piss him off.

If I really wanted to piss him off, I would refer to his french accent.

:0)

jb
Dec 10, 2012 - 1:26am

Feed The Turd

Took me a while to catch up to this thread and as all ways I'm usually be hind. Want oil? Stack a little motor oil. Really, they want you to give it away because it's hazardous. Think about it. I don't have enough of anything and what I had I lost. Feed the Turd. I will to night for the first time.

Feed the Turd.

Gordo, love your posts. Wish I could write like that.

But Turd love you more. Thanks for this place and your message.

ivars
Dec 10, 2012 - 2:35am

Pitchfrok

Here is the current one for silver , what i learned from Webinar - but my own:) ( had to change it a bit):

Creeping up along the bottom of the fork.

The one break came on NFP hour, can not figure if that is material, since it was so short term managed price action that such can be performed almost in every moment if there are some news to exploit. A standard pattern on no news action, as Turd said.

Lets see. This is at least encouraging- until its broken on the downside.

But, it can be broken also on the upside:)

denizen
Dec 10, 2012 - 2:40am

Jerome Smith and ancient history

after reading recent posts including https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/149316#comment-149316 guess I have to come out of the woodwork again, to relate a story there may be no one else left to tell. In 1966 (before Jerome Smith had published his first NYT #1 best seller on silver); he had a handful of us come to his Hollywood Hills home to initially expose his plan to spread the word on a method to invest in silver. At the time silver had been pegged at $1.29 for many years and he had a compelling story on why the price would have to be freed. He had arranged with a Swiss bank for his clients/referrals to open accounts easily and buy silver with 10:1 leverage. I wrote software to help him as a tool to promote the idea to the many groups that he began to speak to. His account at the bank was to get a small up front piece of all of the deposits as well as periodic transfers as value of the accounts increased. At first; if most were like me, they were timid about the size of their bets. But very soon the price did break loose and so I was encouraged to add more new $ as my account value grew. By the time silver hit $2 and more, things were looking great. e.g. My friend and fellow aerospace engineer had been a successful prior investor who had gone into this big; had his account worth over a million on paper in 1966 $'s! Of course, when the price slid back the leverage was a problem. I managed somehow to extract myself with no net gain or loss. My friend might have lost it all - I think. So the purpose of this post is to reiterate what all the stackers here already know - - that leverage has too much risk (especially 10:1) - - even back in 1966 when silver was only a couple of $/oz Jerome had a number of people representing his plan and I think many of those who entered later after those early adaptors faded, probably did well. Harry Browne eventually became one of Jerome's representatives and I remember how Harry always answered the phone with "happiness is buying silver at under x$/ox" where x would be whatever the price was for that day. I think Jerome must have done quite well, and was successful in promoting his plan. My handshake deal with him for supplying his whiz-bang sales aid was that I was to get a certain %age of his action. After making appropriate transfers to my account the first year he unilaterally decided that was no longer going to happen. Well; that was only one of various subsequent encounters with silver. But with that tale I will discretely (and discreetly) go back to read-only mode.

philipat
Dec 10, 2012 - 3:04am

@Mr Fix

The US is a fascist State with a Marxist President. Not a good environment for starting a business. IMHO, wait till it all collapses, which it will because the status quo is clearly unsustainable.

How to explain a Fascist State with a Marxist President? I think of it as a spherical continuum. When it goes so far to the right and so far to the left, they kind of meet again in the middle on the other side. Call it the Dark Side of the Moon.

But, to quote Mittens, "Remember how special it is to be an American". The land of the Free. Good luck.

Meanwhile, keep on Stacking.

zimbabwebobb
Dec 10, 2012 - 3:07am

Question for Freegold high intellectuals

Freegolders think of themselves as intellectually superior great thinkers in the area of monetary theory.

The realty is that either they are a bunch of morons or paid shills working for banker agenda. Probably some combination of both amongst the group.

On the Oil for Gold question that freegolders have their heads all the way up their butts on. How much gold does Canada have and do they exchange their Oil for GOLD? Last time I checked they were by far the biggest foreign supplier of oil to the US.

Motely "the ass clown" Fool say silver's "investment value is going to ZERO in the future". Only a true ASS CLOWN would argue with 5000 years of human history of silver being investment asset and SOV. Freegolders are live in LALA land, not reality.

The reality is that all "oil countries" in MENA are politically under the control of the US military. Therefore, let me make it clear for the freegold assclowns once and for all: BOTH THE OIL AND THE GOLD IN MENA IS OWNED BY THE USA and the powers that control the USA.

Just dig up Generals Gaddafi and Saddam and ask them who owns their GOLD and OIL now.

Any country in MENA that does not go along with the program, TPTB go to war with in short order and as everyone knows Iran is next.

ivars
Dec 10, 2012 - 3:19am

Freegold guys think there are

Freegold guys think there are no political aspects to be taken into account, pure monetary equation they develop into detailed arguments that pleases their intellect. That is fun for sure, until there comes a man with a gun and clears the chessboard with one stroke and declares that he won.

Seem to forget that legal tender or even gold backed money is derived from state, not vice versa. Power of the gun, coercion, that is.

I would suggest that its better to be roughly right than exactly wrong, in current situation.

Bollocks
Dec 10, 2012 - 4:24am
Edward G
Dec 10, 2012 - 4:48am

Dental Implants

The Op I had for some new in-dentures this week was less painful than the earlier part of one of the worst threads we've had here.

I think simple short answers are a way we can look at dealing better with noobie-type q's.

e.g. (ok I'll bite, boom-boom!)

1. Oil is being exchanged for PM's... NOW, by Iran

2. The main motto is a money supply-inflationary keynesian period is in danger of resulting in the repudiation of un-backed paper as history invariably shows and Von Mises famously points out.

3. Roughly Sprott's position seems to be that if people rush accordingly into real assets, the much smaller size of the silver market will cause it to rise more, contracting the ratio, whatever the normal ratio may or may not be considered to be.

Even this seems too long... then ignore follow-up q's

Sorry to resurrect this part of the thread, no replies pls x

S Roche
Dec 10, 2012 - 7:04am

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