What A Week!

375
Sat, Dec 1, 2012 - 11:34am

First, I thought it'd be crazy. Then, by Tuesday, I thought it'd be dull. It turned out crazy. Just another week in the life of a Turd.

What did we see:

  • After the price surge of Black Friday, prices were pinned below $1750 in gold through option expiration on Tuesday.
  • Significant raids related to First Notice Day on both Wednesday and Friday.
  • Robust support appeared where we'd like to see it, namely $1705 in gold and $33.20 in silver.
  • On a personal note, I had a very successful week, after being notified that I was at once "retarded" and "dangerous". This comes just a few weeks after finding out that I am "morally bankrupt". Winner, winner, chicken dinner! That's the trifecta!

Before we look at the setup for next week, let's look back at yesterday so that we all can get on the same page regarding the mechanics of the selloff. Without doubt, the action of Wednesday and Friday was directly related to First Notice Day and contract expiration of the Dec12 gold and Dec12 silver. An overly-simplified way to explain this is:

  1. Bad Guy Bullion Bank builds up a very large position in the Dec12. BGBB is both long and short the Dec12 because the BGBB has taken turns, alternately buying and selling, in its attempt to pin price at a certain level for a minimally-damaging option expiration.
  2. Once Dec12 options expired at the close on Tuesday, BGBB needs to close all of its long and short futures positions in the Dec12.
  3. An entity without nefarious intent would simply liquidate both sides simultaneously and close the positions.
  4. Instead, the BGBB manipulates price for its own benefit by completely dumping the long side onto the market.
  5. This drives price sharply lower and initiates HFT-momo algo selling which drives price even lower.
  6. Into this HFT selling, the BGBB gradually covers the short side of its Dec12 position.

As it was happening yesterday, I printed these five charts. Note that the downward action was entirely contained within the metals. Other "risk" assets like crude or stocks or the euro were relatively stable and unchanged. Below are mid-day, five minute charts:

The resulting effect accomplished three, critical objectives for the BGBB.

  1. After all the selling, price is reset $20-30 lower and the chart looks unfriendly.
  2. Crushing price allows the BGBB to exit its entire position in a more profitable manner than if they had simply covered the thing at the market.
  3. All of the downside volatility frightens and coerces the longs, who might have considered delivery, into dumping, instead. This selling is also used as prey for the BGBB to cover the short side of its spread.

So, here we are. All of that nasty expiration and FND stuff is finally behind us and we're ready to roll into December. In the end, I expect this to be a very nice and positive month that will set us up for a big, exciting and explosive 2013. Getting there, though, will likely be volatile and challenging. To begin with, though the silver charts still look pretty good and silver remains above all of its moving averages, we'd be kidding ourselves if we thought the gold chart looked equally fine. It doesn't. So, first and foremost, we need to hold support early next week and begin a move back toward $34.20 and $1740.

Just a couple of "housekeeping" items before I knock off for the weekend.

First, yesterday's CoT was unremarkable as it once again showed that all the specs were buying and all of their buying was absorbed by the Cartels. Just once I'd like to see a nice, fair and even mix. Here's reprint of the comment I posted into yesterday's thread:

This week's CoT is just another sickening example of bullion bank control. Wait until you see the math.
GOLD
For the Tue-Tue reporting week, price rose by $19 and total OI expanded by 5,244.
Large Spec Net Long change = +12,927
Small Spec Net Long change = +3,056
Total Spec Net Long change = + +15,983
Cartel Net Short change = +15,983
Enough said.


SILVER
For the reporting week, price rose by $1.05 and total OI rose by just 392.
Same shit, different shiny metal.
Large Spec Net Long change = +772
Small Spec Net Long change = + 834
Total Spec Net Long change = +1,606
Cartel Net Short change = +1,606


The Cartel net short change was almost equally divided between covering longs and adding new shorts. The total Cartel gross short position is now 99,317. This is the highest level I can ever recall seeing. The last time total OI was this high on October 2010, the Cartel gross short position was 92,150.
And this is interesting...Back in October of 2010, the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel was 3.07:1, with price near $26. The Cartel was short 92,150 and long 30,023. As of last Tuesday, with price near $34, the gross Cartel short position was 99,317 but the long position was 40% higher at 42,525 for a ratio of 2.33:1. The only real difference, besdies price, between October of 2010 and today is this:
The Cartel gross short (+7000) and the Small Spec gross short (+4000) is nearly equal to the rise in Cartel gross longs (+12,000).

Next, if you haven't yet signed up for the free webinar on Wednesday, you really should do so. It's scheduled for Noon EST and will be recorded for replay if you can't make it at Noon. Not only will Paul Coghlan be speaking and demonstrating his technical analysis, but our pal Andrew Maguire has promised to make an appearance, as well. Just click this link to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/240678176

And here's something on which I need your feedback. We have the opportunity to construct our own, "private label" bullion and coin store. It would be directly linked here but the guts of it (the infrastructure) would be an already-existing bullion and coin service. Call it the "TFMetalsMart" or something. My questions are: Is this a good idea? If the pricing was fair, would you buy from it? Would this seem a conflict of interest in that I'm such an active promoter of stacking physical metal? Please use the comments section of this thread to share your feedback.

Lastly, if you consider yourself an outstanding "prepper" or a "survivalist"....if you are prepared for anything, willing and capable of living off the land...and if you are competitive by nature, please send me an email at turdistheman at gmail dot com. I may have something for you to consider. Serious inquiries only please.

OK, that's it. We survived last week and, though we're damaged, we're still battling and expecting big things ahead. Go now and relax but return on Monday, ready to continue the fight.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  375 Comments

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achmachat
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:29am

babaganoush

in movies and fairytales it's always your weight in gold... never silver ;-)

Here's a nice goal for you: you need 70 1-kilo bars of gold!

The man who stole a leopard
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:21am
paulindoon
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:21am

I don't see any Blackswans!!!

The great swan migration: Beautiful photos show how record number of birds are flocking to UK from Iceland to enjoy cold snap

  • Amazing images taken at the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust Martin Mere Wetland Centre in Burscough, Lancashire
  • Count of Whooper Swans yesterday by staff produced record of 2,480 - beating previous high of 2,100 in 2010
  • More due to fly over to Britain in next few weeks and centre says numbers usually peak in mid to late December

By Mark Duell

PUBLISHED: 14:09 GMT, 3 December 2012 | UPDATED: 15:11 GMT, 3 December 2012

While it might not be that fun for humans to find themselves outside in the cold at the moment, at least it’s an attractive option to another type of species.

A record number of swans are flocking to Britain from Iceland to enjoy the recent cold snap - with more due to fly over in the next few weeks.

These amazing images taken at the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust Martin Mere Wetland Centre show thousands of Whooper Swans gathered on a wetland.

Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2242296/Beautiful-pictures-record-number-swans-flocked-Britain-enjoy-cold-snap.html#ixzz2E0DQEMl8
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Roark
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:21am

@baba

what a wussy little girly-man! KIDDING!!! :)

boatman
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:21am
babaganoush2307
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:16am

Fun fact...

babaganoush needs 2275 troy ounces to be worth his weight in silver.

Seems totally doable

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

paulindoonGroaner
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:12am

Re: Terrible ISM numbers

To be precise: https://seekingalpha.com/currents/all

10:01 AM Nov. ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.5 vs. 51.7 consensus and 51.7 prior. Prices index 52.5 vs. 55.0 prior. Employment 48.4 vs. 52.1 prior. Inventories 45.0 vs. 50.0 prior. New orders 50.3 vs. 54.2 prior.

Groaner
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:04am

Terrible ISM numbers

we got a pop, but what does that mean.. will it hold?

Hi-Ho Silver
Dec 3, 2012 - 9:59am

rebuttal of Andrew Maguire?

I am surprised this rebuttal of Andrew Maguire has not been discussed:

https://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/12/bron-suchecki-etf-price-suppressio...

Bron Suchecki - ETF PRICE SUPPRESSION MECHANICS

“Last week the TF Metals Report blog posted an explanation by Andrew Maguire on how bullion banks use the GLD and SLV Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to suppress the prices of gold and silver.
There are some mistakes in the article that need to be addressed lest they become more virally accepted “truths” in the precious metal blogosphere. Andrew also uses some terminology/jargon that readers may not be familiar with. I’ll cover both of these in the first section titled “Getting the facts straight”.

With the facts established I’ll then seek to hopefully explain some of Andrew’s “mechanics” a bit more clearly. I think it is a combination of jargon, poor wording and the fact that Andrew talks about different transaction mechanics that results in this sort of comment from Ed Steer: “I haven't a clue as to what he's talking about” and Ed’s a smart guy who can follow an argument. This will be in the second section titled “Transaction mechanics”.

Finally, I’ll discuss how significant the ETFs and the transaction mechanisms around them are to the market. ..."

To continue reading Suchecki’s “rebuttal” of Andrew Maguire’s offering, follow the link to the Perth Mint article below.

Link: https://www.perthmintbullion.com/Libraries/Website_Downloads/ETF_Price_Suppression.sflb.ashx

Source: Bron Suchecki, Perth Mint

¤
Dec 3, 2012 - 9:47am

10 a.m. reaction soon?

We'll soon find out.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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