What A Week!

375
Sat, Dec 1, 2012 - 11:34am

First, I thought it'd be crazy. Then, by Tuesday, I thought it'd be dull. It turned out crazy. Just another week in the life of a Turd.

What did we see:

  • After the price surge of Black Friday, prices were pinned below $1750 in gold through option expiration on Tuesday.
  • Significant raids related to First Notice Day on both Wednesday and Friday.
  • Robust support appeared where we'd like to see it, namely $1705 in gold and $33.20 in silver.
  • On a personal note, I had a very successful week, after being notified that I was at once "retarded" and "dangerous". This comes just a few weeks after finding out that I am "morally bankrupt". Winner, winner, chicken dinner! That's the trifecta! laugh

Before we look at the setup for next week, let's look back at yesterday so that we all can get on the same page regarding the mechanics of the selloff. Without doubt, the action of Wednesday and Friday was directly related to First Notice Day and contract expiration of the Dec12 gold and Dec12 silver. An overly-simplified way to explain this is:

  1. Bad Guy Bullion Bank builds up a very large position in the Dec12. BGBB is both long and short the Dec12 because the BGBB has taken turns, alternately buying and selling, in its attempt to pin price at a certain level for a minimally-damaging option expiration.
  2. Once Dec12 options expired at the close on Tuesday, BGBB needs to close all of its long and short futures positions in the Dec12.
  3. An entity without nefarious intent would simply liquidate both sides simultaneously and close the positions.
  4. Instead, the BGBB manipulates price for its own benefit by completely dumping the long side onto the market.
  5. This drives price sharply lower and initiates HFT-momo algo selling which drives price even lower.
  6. Into this HFT selling, the BGBB gradually covers the short side of its Dec12 position.

As it was happening yesterday, I printed these five charts. Note that the downward action was entirely contained within the metals. Other "risk" assets like crude or stocks or the euro were relatively stable and unchanged. Below are mid-day, five minute charts:

The resulting effect accomplished three, critical objectives for the BGBB.

  1. After all the selling, price is reset $20-30 lower and the chart looks unfriendly.
  2. Crushing price allows the BGBB to exit its entire position in a more profitable manner than if they had simply covered the thing at the market.
  3. All of the downside volatility frightens and coerces the longs, who might have considered delivery, into dumping, instead. This selling is also used as prey for the BGBB to cover the short side of its spread.

So, here we are. All of that nasty expiration and FND stuff is finally behind us and we're ready to roll into December. In the end, I expect this to be a very nice and positive month that will set us up for a big, exciting and explosive 2013. Getting there, though, will likely be volatile and challenging. To begin with, though the silver charts still look pretty good and silver remains above all of its moving averages, we'd be kidding ourselves if we thought the gold chart looked equally fine. It doesn't. So, first and foremost, we need to hold support early next week and begin a move back toward $34.20 and $1740.

Just a couple of "housekeeping" items before I knock off for the weekend.

First, yesterday's CoT was unremarkable as it once again showed that all the specs were buying and all of their buying was absorbed by the Cartels. Just once I'd like to see a nice, fair and even mix. Here's reprint of the comment I posted into yesterday's thread:

This week's CoT is just another sickening example of bullion bank control. Wait until you see the math.
GOLD
For the Tue-Tue reporting week, price rose by $19 and total OI expanded by 5,244.
Large Spec Net Long change = +12,927
Small Spec Net Long change = +3,056
Total Spec Net Long change = + +15,983
Cartel Net Short change = +15,983
Enough said.


SILVER
For the reporting week, price rose by $1.05 and total OI rose by just 392.
Same shit, different shiny metal.
Large Spec Net Long change = +772
Small Spec Net Long change = + 834
Total Spec Net Long change = +1,606
Cartel Net Short change = +1,606


The Cartel net short change was almost equally divided between covering longs and adding new shorts. The total Cartel gross short position is now 99,317. This is the highest level I can ever recall seeing. The last time total OI was this high on October 2010, the Cartel gross short position was 92,150.
And this is interesting...Back in October of 2010, the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel was 3.07:1, with price near $26. The Cartel was short 92,150 and long 30,023. As of last Tuesday, with price near $34, the gross Cartel short position was 99,317 but the long position was 40% higher at 42,525 for a ratio of 2.33:1. The only real difference, besdies price, between October of 2010 and today is this:
The Cartel gross short (+7000) and the Small Spec gross short (+4000) is nearly equal to the rise in Cartel gross longs (+12,000).

Next, if you haven't yet signed up for the free webinar on Wednesday, you really should do so. It's scheduled for Noon EST and will be recorded for replay if you can't make it at Noon. Not only will Paul Coghlan be speaking and demonstrating his technical analysis, but our pal Andrew Maguire has promised to make an appearance, as well. Just click this link to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/240678176

And here's something on which I need your feedback. We have the opportunity to construct our own, "private label" bullion and coin store. It would be directly linked here but the guts of it (the infrastructure) would be an already-existing bullion and coin service. Call it the "TFMetalsMart" or something. My questions are: Is this a good idea? If the pricing was fair, would you buy from it? Would this seem a conflict of interest in that I'm such an active promoter of stacking physical metal? Please use the comments section of this thread to share your feedback.

Lastly, if you consider yourself an outstanding "prepper" or a "survivalist"....if you are prepared for anything, willing and capable of living off the land...and if you are competitive by nature, please send me an email at turdistheman at gmail dot com. I may have something for you to consider. Serious inquiries only please.

OK, that's it. We survived last week and, though we're damaged, we're still battling and expecting big things ahead. Go now and relax but return on Monday, ready to continue the fight.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  375 Comments

Abraham Bernanke · Dec 1, 2012 - 11:39am

Have a good weekend Turd and all!

Another great wrap up thanks.

Feed the Turd peeps feed the turd!

GeraldBostock · Dec 1, 2012 - 11:40am

First.

First. Second. No, Third. Enough of this childishness - Now I'm going to read the post.

dudestacker · Dec 1, 2012 - 11:49am

alsoran

I would buy all my "machine parts, bearings, etc" here.

Anonymous · Dec 1, 2012 - 11:55am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

sengfarmer · Dec 1, 2012 - 11:57am

top ten, yaaah

Well things look a little slow here. Everybody must be getting ready for the big week coming. :)

dropout · Dec 1, 2012 - 11:59am

What a Week! What a Month!

A big 'Thank You' Mr. F. For all you do.

GOLD:

Average weekly close for November $1,718.09

SILVER:

Average weekly close for November $32.69

Up, up, and away! In coming days and months these prices will seem low. Get yours now. The US Mint figures for November, for gold, show the largest volume of sales in 14 years. High net worth individuals are buying in size and taking physical delivery. We are seeing the tip of the iceberg. Once John Q. Public gets involved? Good luck finding anyone to sell you some gold, without a sky high premium.

tyberious · Dec 1, 2012 - 12:07pm

FIF

GOFOIT

If you advocate trading FRN's for PM's, and you do, why would it be considered a conflict of interest to sell them? Now if you advocated saving FRN's at your local Chase bank and that Au was a barbaric metal and Ag was only for industrial use the you would be contradictory, otherwise, sign me up for a roll. I can see it now "The Golden Turd" or "Silver Turd"!

Punk-Assets · Dec 1, 2012 - 12:11pm

Based on the last few long

Based on the last few long winded corrections, we'll be another 3 to 9 months below $1900 in gold. Turn off KWN and stack. 

Mr. Fix · Dec 1, 2012 - 12:16pm

Only sixth? I seem to have lost my touch.

I find it amazing how much information can be gleaned from this website.

Almost daily, I find new inspiration,

while I hone my perspective on what is really going on with the our world.

Thank you Turd.

By the way,
as you can tell from my posts over the last few months,
I fit your description of a "survivalist/prepper" to a T.
Since your post, I have been trying to Google a
way into your Gmail account, but will need to ask somebody exactly how it is that I can accomplish that.

I am still computer illiterate, so work with me.

I am extraordinarily interested in your ideas, and would appreciate it if you simply PM me.

waxybilldupp · Dec 1, 2012 - 12:28pm

Last week ... BFD!

Stackers have no fear. The long path is clear. Knowledge is power. Hope for the best; prepare for the worst.

"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain."

Bene Geserit Litany Against Fear (Dune)

R man J · Dec 1, 2012 - 12:32pm

Stacking is the easy part, turning off KWN...

...just. can't. do.it.

Stack-wise, I need prices to average No more than $2200 / $44 over the next 16 months (to meet my personal goals). But I still like KWN and look forward to their tweets, click them as soon as I get them. It does not bother me that their timing is sometimes a little shall we say "optimistic". They are right about everything else. So while I am "sitting tight" I will continue to enjoy the like-minded people that SHARE THEIR KNOWLEDGE (though their knowledge does not include timing) on KWN.

· Dec 1, 2012 - 12:39pm

re Mr Fix and TF's email

I think it is just

turdistheman[at]gmail[dot]com

bucktooth · Dec 1, 2012 - 12:58pm
Nana · Dec 1, 2012 - 1:02pm

Welcome To The New Norm

Where nothing is what it seems.

Twilight Zone Opening THEME MUSIC 1962 Rod Serling
Bollocks · Dec 1, 2012 - 1:05pm

Is this true? Can anyone in the US confirm this?

Lock your doors and load your guns: San Bernardino warned of uncontrollable crime as police squad shrinks

Reuters / Shannon Stapleton

A San Bernardino city attorney told residents this week to gather arms and prepare to defend themselves since the bankrupt town can no longer afford the law enforcement it needs.

During a city council meeting Wednesday, City Attorney Jim Penman urged residents of the bankrupt Californian city to “lock their doors and load their guns” to protect themselves.

City officials prepared a budget plan earlier this month that would attempt to tackle the $45.8 million deficit partially by cutting benefits for city workers like firefighters and police officers, as well as eliminating 80 cops from the force altogether.

“Let’s be honest, we don’t have enough police officers. We have too many criminals living in this city. We have had 45 murders this year… that’s far too high for a city of this size,” Penman said.

The cuts will leave the city with just over 200 sworn officers – a small number in a city of 213,012 that is plagued with crime. The city’s police department has also cut down on the number of people answering its emergency phone lines: problematic in a city that was ranked America’s sixteenth most dangerous in 2004. San Bernardino has also seen a 50 percent increase in murders this year compared to 2011, and this week’s council meeting was actually called in response to the brutal murder of a 76-year-old woman in a neighborhood that is usually quiet.

During the meeting, Police Chief Robert Handy also emphasized the need to reduce the city’s drug problems and theft. But in a region where prisons are already overcrowded and the streets are overwhelmed with gang violence, San Bernardino faces heavy obstacles.

“We are trying to refocus and pay a little more attention to those (types of crimes) because honestly, those are the ones we get complaints on,” Handy said, reports the local Sun newspaper. “We may not come out immediately, but many of those transients have been arrested more than 50 times. There’s no room for them in jail.”

With an inadequate police force, no room in prison, and no money to gather resources, Penman believes city residents must fend for themselves.

“People have asked me what should we do? Go home, lock your doors, and load your gun,” he told the crowd of nearly 150 people at the city council meeting.

San Bernardino filed for bankruptcy on Aug. 1 after acquiring more than $1 billion in debt. The city was the third in California to go bankrupt in just over a month.

More: https://rt.com/usa/news/san-bernardino-bankrupt-crime-003/

القراع عصفور · Dec 1, 2012 - 1:17pm

i prefer the old Norm :-)

Favorite Normisms
Mr. Fix George Clooney · Dec 1, 2012 - 1:22pm

re Mr Fix and TF's email Submitted by Xty

Thanks Xty,

I think I got through.

Anonymous · Dec 1, 2012 - 1:38pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

I Run Bartertown · Dec 1, 2012 - 1:48pm

Bollocks

They often spout that when threatened with funding cuts. Just like local governments always cry about the need to cut police and fire service rather than cut bureaucrats.

The problem is not the inability to deal with criminals, per se, but simply the fact that the police would interfere with anyone doing it.

"but many of those transients have been arrested more than 50 times. There’s no room for them in jail.”

I'd propose that any system plagued by this problem does not lack police, but simply lacks will.

boatman · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:00pm

ber-----do

yeah, thats the first thing the citys always scream...........POLICE.....then its TEACHERS[you should SEE the stuff in the board of education dumpster here]

doesn't matter their firemen make $125,000 and after 20 years they retire at 80% with full bennies.....RIDICULOUS.

there are 6 lifeguards in orange county that make OVER .5mil$/yr.

government workers-> privileged class 

Bollocks · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:04pm

Thanks I Run Bartertown

A bit of a knee-jerk reaction then. I thought it was rather extreme!

Bongo Jim · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:12pm

Actually the nickname is Berdoo

And it sucks...starting to look like a mini Detroit. A friend & coworker lives there on "D" street, and I have given him rides to/from work on occasion. The battery keeps getting stolen out of his truck. He's black, I'm not. Let's just say he understands me not hanging around after dropping him off (especially at night). You scream "RACISM!" That's true, the people in his area of Berdoo don't like what race I am.

As far as TF selling the shiney...sounds like a conflict of interest to me, but hey - politicians, judges, banksters and mostly everyone else does it, so why not?

· Dec 1, 2012 - 2:15pm

in Ottawa

they always threaten the hockey arenas. Seriously. And 'seniors' in some way I don't quite understand.

I guess that shows a huge cultural difference - they threaten our kids' house league 'B' hockey and we panic and reach for our wallets, but you they have to threaten with murder to extort more funds.

Quisp · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:18pm

I don't see it as a conflict of interest...

any more than what Turd already sells on this site. Unfortunately, FRNs are still a necessary evil, until they're not. Somebody is going to make a profit off our PM purchases..... why not Turd? As long as the prices were competetive, I would buy here.

So It Goes · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:21pm

Selling bullion

My .02

I wouldn't become a bullion dealer if I were you Turd.

1. Large orders can be filled at Tulving - his margins are so low you will not make a profit.

2. Small orders - or those larger orders needing quick filling can be filled at LCS, other major bullion dealers, or coin shows.

3. The only current need for another bullion dealer is for those folks who live too far away from a LCS, want small orders, and do not want to pay the higher prices on ebay. So ebay is your competition.

It is too much distraction for too little compensation. The site is good as it is - I for one will feed the turd again if you drop the idea. 

Keep stacking.

¤ · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:29pm
Bongo Jim · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:37pm
I Run Bartertown · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:40pm

Demographics Are Destiny

Detroit, San Bernadino, you could name examples all day. Sadly, people are so brainwashed that they will match you example by example by claiming it's poverty, oppression, culture (where does culture come from?), or a lack of ______ (fill-in-the-blank).

Oh, and zombies are not just real..they're even in Canada now. What has become of The Great White North? angel

https://beforeitsnews.com/watercooler-topics/2012/11/zombie-tries-to-eat-dog-in-street-video-mainstream-news-report-2430678.html

We drove by it, and it was in the middle of the intersection. It was a guy wrapped around a dog, choking it, biting it. It was messed up,” Comeau told the CBC’s Kristy Nease by phone from Petawawa on Thursday morning. “So we pulled over. And the guy was in his boxers.

“We ran up to him, screaming at him. Our first priority was to go and hit him … but then we decided to call the cops because he was eating the dog, and there was blood all over the place and the dog was squealing. It was just really, really disturbing.”

Zombie licking dogs blood off the street

Nana · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:47pm

@ Boatman and Anyone Interested

"government workers-> privileged class" interesting words.

The "Federal" Income Tax is for the "Federal Employees and those who make money from the Federal Government" they are the "privileged class". It is a "Federal Income Tax" for "Federal Employees" and those who make money from the "Federal Government".

Interesting stuff.....

Cracking the Code IRS income tax truth by peter Hendrickson
Silvergunn · Dec 1, 2012 - 2:50pm

©Gibson's Gold Law

If this has been posted forgive me...

Gibson's Paradox - Revisited

-- Posted Friday, 30 November 2012 |

By Chris Gilbert Waltzek

©Gibson's Gold Law

While preparing for this week's Goldseek.com Radio, my attention was drawn to a little known economic theory proposed by a British economist 90 years ago. In 1923 Alfred Herbert Gibson published a paper regarding the negative correlation between interest rates and inflation in Banker's Magazine (White, 2011). John Maynard Keynes later coined the term Gibson’s Paradox in 1930 (Keynes, 1930). Unlike his contemporaries, Keynes embraced Gibson’s finding as one of the most established and profound in the field of economics. I concur Gibson’s Paradox deserves to be recognized as an economic law, not merely a theory.

Subsequent researchers proposed that Gibson's Paradox explains much of the price movement in the gold market (Summers & Barsky, 1988). Research indicates that the gold price and real interest rates are highly negatively correlated - when rates go down, gold goes up. It has been rigorously back-tested and stands the test of time via not only theoretical evidence, but empirical research. In fact, regression analysis reveals a very high f-statistic which adds statistical support to the notion - when real interest rates are below 2%, a bull market in gold is virtually certain.

If experimental and experiential evidence validates Gibson's Paradox, how come the theory isn't widely recognized?

Read the rest: https://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1354287900.php

Or listen to the highlights on this weeks radio show: https://radio.goldseek.com/

Turd thank you for all you do, it is priceless!!! Have a wonderful weekend!

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
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Key Economic Events week of 11/26

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11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
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Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
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