What A Week!

375
Sat, Dec 1, 2012 - 11:34am

First, I thought it'd be crazy. Then, by Tuesday, I thought it'd be dull. It turned out crazy. Just another week in the life of a Turd.

What did we see:

  • After the price surge of Black Friday, prices were pinned below $1750 in gold through option expiration on Tuesday.
  • Significant raids related to First Notice Day on both Wednesday and Friday.
  • Robust support appeared where we'd like to see it, namely $1705 in gold and $33.20 in silver.
  • On a personal note, I had a very successful week, after being notified that I was at once "retarded" and "dangerous". This comes just a few weeks after finding out that I am "morally bankrupt". Winner, winner, chicken dinner! That's the trifecta!

Before we look at the setup for next week, let's look back at yesterday so that we all can get on the same page regarding the mechanics of the selloff. Without doubt, the action of Wednesday and Friday was directly related to First Notice Day and contract expiration of the Dec12 gold and Dec12 silver. An overly-simplified way to explain this is:

  1. Bad Guy Bullion Bank builds up a very large position in the Dec12. BGBB is both long and short the Dec12 because the BGBB has taken turns, alternately buying and selling, in its attempt to pin price at a certain level for a minimally-damaging option expiration.
  2. Once Dec12 options expired at the close on Tuesday, BGBB needs to close all of its long and short futures positions in the Dec12.
  3. An entity without nefarious intent would simply liquidate both sides simultaneously and close the positions.
  4. Instead, the BGBB manipulates price for its own benefit by completely dumping the long side onto the market.
  5. This drives price sharply lower and initiates HFT-momo algo selling which drives price even lower.
  6. Into this HFT selling, the BGBB gradually covers the short side of its Dec12 position.

As it was happening yesterday, I printed these five charts. Note that the downward action was entirely contained within the metals. Other "risk" assets like crude or stocks or the euro were relatively stable and unchanged. Below are mid-day, five minute charts:

The resulting effect accomplished three, critical objectives for the BGBB.

  1. After all the selling, price is reset $20-30 lower and the chart looks unfriendly.
  2. Crushing price allows the BGBB to exit its entire position in a more profitable manner than if they had simply covered the thing at the market.
  3. All of the downside volatility frightens and coerces the longs, who might have considered delivery, into dumping, instead. This selling is also used as prey for the BGBB to cover the short side of its spread.

So, here we are. All of that nasty expiration and FND stuff is finally behind us and we're ready to roll into December. In the end, I expect this to be a very nice and positive month that will set us up for a big, exciting and explosive 2013. Getting there, though, will likely be volatile and challenging. To begin with, though the silver charts still look pretty good and silver remains above all of its moving averages, we'd be kidding ourselves if we thought the gold chart looked equally fine. It doesn't. So, first and foremost, we need to hold support early next week and begin a move back toward $34.20 and $1740.

Just a couple of "housekeeping" items before I knock off for the weekend.

First, yesterday's CoT was unremarkable as it once again showed that all the specs were buying and all of their buying was absorbed by the Cartels. Just once I'd like to see a nice, fair and even mix. Here's reprint of the comment I posted into yesterday's thread:

This week's CoT is just another sickening example of bullion bank control. Wait until you see the math.
GOLD
For the Tue-Tue reporting week, price rose by $19 and total OI expanded by 5,244.
Large Spec Net Long change = +12,927
Small Spec Net Long change = +3,056
Total Spec Net Long change = + +15,983
Cartel Net Short change = +15,983
Enough said.


SILVER
For the reporting week, price rose by $1.05 and total OI rose by just 392.
Same shit, different shiny metal.
Large Spec Net Long change = +772
Small Spec Net Long change = + 834
Total Spec Net Long change = +1,606
Cartel Net Short change = +1,606


The Cartel net short change was almost equally divided between covering longs and adding new shorts. The total Cartel gross short position is now 99,317. This is the highest level I can ever recall seeing. The last time total OI was this high on October 2010, the Cartel gross short position was 92,150.
And this is interesting...Back in October of 2010, the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel was 3.07:1, with price near $26. The Cartel was short 92,150 and long 30,023. As of last Tuesday, with price near $34, the gross Cartel short position was 99,317 but the long position was 40% higher at 42,525 for a ratio of 2.33:1. The only real difference, besdies price, between October of 2010 and today is this:
The Cartel gross short (+7000) and the Small Spec gross short (+4000) is nearly equal to the rise in Cartel gross longs (+12,000).

Next, if you haven't yet signed up for the free webinar on Wednesday, you really should do so. It's scheduled for Noon EST and will be recorded for replay if you can't make it at Noon. Not only will Paul Coghlan be speaking and demonstrating his technical analysis, but our pal Andrew Maguire has promised to make an appearance, as well. Just click this link to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/240678176

And here's something on which I need your feedback. We have the opportunity to construct our own, "private label" bullion and coin store. It would be directly linked here but the guts of it (the infrastructure) would be an already-existing bullion and coin service. Call it the "TFMetalsMart" or something. My questions are: Is this a good idea? If the pricing was fair, would you buy from it? Would this seem a conflict of interest in that I'm such an active promoter of stacking physical metal? Please use the comments section of this thread to share your feedback.

Lastly, if you consider yourself an outstanding "prepper" or a "survivalist"....if you are prepared for anything, willing and capable of living off the land...and if you are competitive by nature, please send me an email at turdistheman at gmail dot com. I may have something for you to consider. Serious inquiries only please.

OK, that's it. We survived last week and, though we're damaged, we're still battling and expecting big things ahead. Go now and relax but return on Monday, ready to continue the fight.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  375 Comments

  Refresh
SE
Dec 4, 2012 - 3:34am

Honestly, I don't think most

Honestly, I don't think most have been right over the past two years. Looking back and evaluating all the calls most have been dead wrong. The previous 10 years we had great moves up and now we have been in a holding pattern for almost two years now. Since silver was smashed we haven't seen $40--thats' almost two years now, and with gold since sept 2011 we haven't broken 1800's. Major correction, consolidation, manipulation or all the above. Maybe it's at a tipping point.. they have to fight with everything they have. and maybe they will go long as Sinclair says. I hear dan narcini every week and honestly he seems like a good guy and means well but he's not totally on the manipulation side, somewhat but not where everyone here is. He's been more bearish in the past two years, with some bull calls, but those have been wrong too. Sinclair kept calling 1711-2011 (something like that) a while back and we haven't hit it. I'm not saying he's totally wrong, just pointing out these short term calls now, most have been off. Is that good or bad? not sure everyone has to make that decision for themselves.

Murphy calling for something big to happen every two seconds too. I'm not sure what it is and why we are seeing all these calls that are not manifesting, but i like what eric sprott says "we don't know when, but we know it will happen." I'm hoping is right, i belive he is right, but sometimes i just don't know. Maybe they can keep suppression going on for much much longer. Yes, I hear the calls that they can't do it forever, but until I see it and witness it first hand I don't know. I guess history says this is true.

Many divergence in calls this week..Norcini says december lot's of liquidity drying up. I guess we'll see. For the most part i've shut down much of my listening to many. Most have been wrong so why would i keep listeing to those that are wrong. I can see myself maybe in two-three years that gold and silver will hit all new highs, but im not counting on anything before. Listen, I hope im wrong, but looking at the trend over the past two years we are still in a holding pattern.

We might as well close are eyes shut everything down and come back a year from now. We do keep rehashing the same themes AND until we see a sharp move ahead i guess the same things will be played out.

What will next week bring. I don't have much hopes that we will be in a better place then today. What will next year be? I don't know, not GOD, no one is, we'd all be filthy rich now if we knew.

-------------------------

Goddamn it, people. LISTEN TO ME! YOU HAVE 20 BUSINESS DAYS TO PROVE ME WRONG ON THE FIRST SCENARIO I SHARED WITH YOU!!

Look up my comments on one of the Report threads from within the last 2-4 months. I TOLD you I had 3 scenarios.

1) Silver hits $40 by year-end or 12-28 (unless metals are still trading on Monday the 31st).

2) Silver hits $50 by May 2013.

3) Silver hits $50 by May 2014.

1) I STILL do not believe silver will hit $40 in less than 30 days. It is the most unlikely scenario of these three. It just doesn't feel right. If you want to prove me wrong, then ORGANIZE an invasion and arrest the top ranking members of CME, COMEX, and JPM at a minimum. Be sure that you are too strong for the police and the National Guard to dare touch you.

2) This was is somewhat more likely to happen, but not that much more. It hasn't even been two years since the May 1 crash.

3) This is the most likely scenario to happen, and I still stand by this. We've got a long fucking way to go unless someone ORGANIZES an invasion and arrest the top ranking members of CME, COMEX, and JPM at a minimum, and don't forget about defending against police and military.

I stopped reading Dan and Jim, and several others when their posts kept coming up wrong on their predictions, and I was right every time. It has never felt time for it to take off. IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO!! I've been doing this for 8 years. Just take a look at a silver chart of the last 12 years, and you'll see what has to happen if you factor in logarithmic effects on movements. It is too early. We've GOT to have another year or more for things to settle in and start moving upwards.

Turd, mark it on your fucking calendar - is SE correct about scenarios 1, 2, or 3?

Now, get your shit together and do what I told you to do in the last comment I wrote a while back... I'm well on my way to being proven RIGHT AGAIN. I'm fucking tired of being right because being right means we won't see silver get past $50 for another year or more. I'm just so close to losing it that I may decide to cash out the majority to wrap up everything in this city, put into storage, and get out on the road with a truck and trailer. I cannot handle much more of this!!

Hi-Ho Silver
Dec 3, 2012 - 1:30pm

tmosely

Ooops! ---Didn't realize that it has been discussed!

Sorry for reposting it.

SheetrockerDoctor J
Dec 3, 2012 - 1:18pm

for Dr Jerome

Keith Richards - you got the silver
tmosley
Dec 3, 2012 - 12:33pm

Hi-ho silver: It was

Hi-ho silver:

It was discussed in a previous thread, and at great length with much acrimony.

Bollocks
Dec 3, 2012 - 11:19am

.

deleted

paulindoon
Dec 3, 2012 - 11:02am
SIlverbeeThe man who stole a leopard
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:59am

The iphone scroll thing

If anyone has done this can you show how with screen shots or simpler instruction please.

SIlverbee
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:57am

Instead of an endowment policy

I got my son his birth weight in legal tender silver coins. He will thank me one day!

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babaganoush2307
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:43am

Achmachat...

...I think my weight in gold is still a ways off, silver is a good starter

babaganoush2307
Dec 3, 2012 - 10:42am

@ Roark

Yep, always been a skinny guy. People are often amazing at my capability to eat a whole pizza, not gain a pound, take a dump and lose 5. Guess you could say I was born gifted

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