Rage Against The Machines

Fri, Nov 30, 2012 - 10:15am

In a world dominated by momo-chasing HFT computers, sometimes you've got to step back and use actual intelligence and not artificial.

As we've been discussing here for months, America is racing toward the dreaded "Fiscal Cliff". Earlier this year, the common term for this event was Taxmageddon but, apparently, Fiscal Cliff sounds more dramatic when accompanying the MSM "BREAKING NEWS" alert at the top of every hour. So, what the heck is this Fiscal Cliff stuff and why do the metals seem to trade up and down based upon whichever way the wind is currently blowing?

In its simplest terms, the Fiscal Cliff is this: If no legislative action is taken before January 1, 2013, a whole host of current tax breaks will expire. The resulting tax increase will dramatically slow the U.S. economy as tax-planning uncertainty will combine with this massive transference of wealth from the private to the public sector, making even 1% GDP growth unlikely in 2013. Additionally, Congress must once again to raise the debt ceiling from its current $16T+ level to something like $18T. Yikes!

So why is it that rumors of a "deal" tend to make gold go UP and rumors of "no deal" make gold go down? It's the WOPRs, silly. Many are programmed to buy and sell off of headlines, and for some reason, these computers are selling on every headline that suggests "no deal". But this is completely, 100% wrong and I need you to use actual, human intelligence for a moment. There are four, possible scenarios here. Let's take them one by one.

  1. No deal at all. America heads over the Fiscal Cliff. Massive tax hikes hit on 1/1/13 and, more importantly, the U.S. reaches the debt ceiling and is unable to borrow any additional funds at auction. This is wildly bullish for gold (and silver). The collapse of the U.S. economy guarantees huge, additional QE and the dollar will decline steeply in value. Lack of funding for government spending ramps up the requirement for even more dollar printing by The Fed. Gold demand also surges as countries, central banks and individuals around the world seek "safe haven" from the storm.
  2. A deal on the debt ceiling but no deal on Taxmageddon. This is also bullish for gold as The Fed will, undoubtedly, be standing by with massive QE liquidity injections in an attempt to blunt the economic slowdown brought forth by the tax hikes. Additionally, no deal on Taxmageddon means that no spending cuts were initiated. This lack of "austerity" combined with the $2T+ debt ceiling hike will almost certainly lead to another round of downgrades to the U.S. credit rating and, as we saw in August of 2011, downgrades of the U.S. are quite bullish for gold.
  3. A deal postponing Taxmageddon and no deal on the debt ceiling. This scenario plays out simply because The Congress decides to "punt" the issue and head home for the holidays, instead. They figure that Tiny Tim will figure out a way to cook the books until March or so, thereby leaving the problem for the new Congress to tackle in January. This complete disregard for the seriousness of the issue leaves S&P et al with no choice but to downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. which, as noted above, is a situation that has proven in the past to be extremely bullish for the metals.
  4. A complete deal where taxes are raised, real spending cuts initiated and the debt ceiling increased. Even this is bullish for the metals. Why, you ask? Once again, raising the debt ceiling by $2T+ is bullish. The link between U.S. debt and the price of gold is indisputable. And, again, from where will this money come? QE∞, of course. The tax increases with spending cuts is also a plan for higher gold prices as this will almost certainly slow the U.S. economy into recession and, as we know, the only monetary policy left to combat economic slowdown is the overt printing of new dollars.

So, do you see where I'm headed here? It doesn't matter! Next month, ignore the headlines and the endless MOPE and SPIN emanating from Washington and New York. Just buy gold (and silver, too). Physical precious metal continues to be your only financial protection from the true Economic Armageddon we are facing.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


BagOfGold Fr. Bill
Dec 1, 2012 - 10:13am

Fr. Bill...About beards...

Unfortunately...I am one of those rare women with beards who doesn't work in a circus!...Usually when I have drank too much the night before...like a hangover...it always shows up the next morning!...

However...once the eggs...toast...& coffee are made...then these symptoms go away!...Other times...Eric O shows up...& saves the day!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Dec 1, 2012 - 10:16am
Dec 1, 2012 - 10:17am

Alternative title to this article...



$550 million Powerball or just another 81 minutes in the life of Congress?

By Gretchen Hamel

After most Americans get off work today they will head over to the nearest gas station to pick up a Powerball ticket. With a jackpot like $550 million at stake, multiple ticket purchases will certainly be within reason. After all if someone’s going to win, it might as well be me, right? And a dollar for the chance to imagine what one could buy with that kind of money is priceless.

But it’s actually quite hard to wrap your mind around just how much $550 million is. You could buy 2,150 2012 Bentley Continental Flying Spur Speeds at $232,290 each and still have $50 million left over. Or you could buy a Hermes Birkin bag at $120,000 a pop for you and 4,582 of your closest friends.

No matter which way you look at it, $550 million is a lot of money… that is unless you are looking at it though the lens of the government. When it comes to spending money like it’s going out of style, the American public has nothing on Washington.

In fiscal year 2012, which ended on September 30, 2012, the government spent a whopping $3,538,286,000,000. Being that there are 525,600 minutes in a year, that means the government spent $6,731,898 a minute last year. Knowing this, how long would it take the government to spend the $550 million Powerball jackpot of your dreams? 81 minutes.

In other words in 81 minutes the government could buy 30 gulfstream jets at $17.5 million a piece.

With the current national debt at over $16,317,280,044,971, the federal government would have to win the Powerball jackpot 29,667 times to pay off the national debt.

The 2012 federal deficit racked up at $1.1 trillion, so Washington would have to win 2,000 times if it were to balance the budget last year.

While Americans dream about how many luxury cruises they could go on, how many olive garden feasts they could treat their family to, or how many Harry Winston diamonds they could collect with $550 million, the Powerball jackpot and daydreams it conjures is a sobering reminder of just how much money the government is spending.

That’s $550 million every hour and 21 minutes while we are driving to work, watching a movie, and even sleeping. It’s time for the government to wake up to reality. They didn’t just win the jackpot 29,667 times. They must cut spending.

BankruptingAmerica.org is an educational project of Public Notice, an independent, nonpartisan, non-profit, 501(c)(4) organization dedicated to providing facts and insight on the effects public policy has on Americans’ financial well-being.

Mr. Fix
Dec 1, 2012 - 10:22am

RE Puck T. Smith "the military budget"

In principle,
I agree with you that cutting the military budget is not a bad thing.
Our military is currently being used to project power in places where we have no business at all.

My concern is this:
Ron Paul is an honorable statesman, who is genuinely trying to work for America's best interests.
Squandering trillions of dollars on a bloated military bureaucracy and supporting the industrial military complex for the sole purpose of supporting politically connected contractors is not in America's best interest.

Even though America spends as much on our military as the rest of the world combined,
we have gotten to the point of being incapable of winning any genuine conflict.
The military budget is just a black hole to dump money into, to support the special interests,
not to mention it is an excellent cover for fraud and theft.

Barack Obama is an entirely different character.
When he does something, it is designed to have the worst possible outcome for the United States.
When he gave the message to the Russian president that he “would have more flexibility” after the election, he was specifically talking about an agenda that is not in America's best interests, and everybody knows it.

Since he has become president, he has consistently had a policy of alienating the United States traditional allies, while simultaneously throwing his full support behind our traditional enemies. The people that have benefited the most from the Obama administration is clearly the Muslim brotherhood, a radical Muslims of all kinds, and Al Qaeda.

Our enemies have far more power than they had only four short years ago, while our allies are in a state of collapse. This is a direct result of the administration's policies, and it is by design.

If our military budget was cut by a man like Ron Paul, the waste fraud and abuse would be cut.
In the end it would leave America stronger.

When president Obama cuts the military budget, it will be for the sole purpose of leaving America defenseless against its enemies, both foreign and domestic.

And make no doubt about it, the Obama administration is the biggest threat the United States has ever known to its own sovereignty, and its own very existence.

Our military takes an oath to the Constitution, and is supposed to defend our country from enemies both foreign and domestic.

As it becomes more apparent that president Obama is an enemy to the United States, he needs to first make sure that the military is powerless to stop him.

Dec 1, 2012 - 10:24am

duck soup

Xty, those are mountain man beards for sure. But maybe it should be titled Fear the Artillery. :)

Watching the vid, especially with their successful calling, I can't imagine why they're hunting the low hovering Woodies with 12-gauge and what looks like buckshot when 6's would easily have worked (and left recognizable, edible meat). They're blowing those birds apart. 20-gauge would have been better. Maybe Shish Kabob was on the menu. Or duck soup.

Fr. Bill, right you are and LOL the circus. I do like your beard. Very Friar-like. Although after having a 'stache, the a goat then a beard for years and now bare faced, I can attest that shaving is easier, faster and much less grooming time required than facial hair. True, Benny's beard is probably the one trait he has going in the right direction. A case of "accentuate the positive" I suppose. Benny's hair has, uh, evolved...


Dec 1, 2012 - 10:28am

FED MBS logjam about to break

nov. FED balance sheet actually shrinks

" the reason for the disconnect between Fed MBS purchases and its balance sheet expansion to date is due in large part to the nature in which MBS securities trade. They have long periods until settlement and tend to come through the system in big chunks all at the same time."

a 'chunk' is headed down the pipeline.



MR. FIX...........yessirabsolutely...........

interesting to see how your post is treated in an everincreasing turdville turn to the left.

Dec 1, 2012 - 10:40am

Puck, I see what you mean

Just remember that there is always a way. Instead of working for larger firms that have HR-CYA-itis, if you're not able to stay on where you are you may best look at the smaller, specialty, privately owned shops or consultancies that hire or subcontract. No HR, no concern about decades ago mistakes or corporate ladders and such. Just honest and good work.

Now, finding a good woman will require even more work. Not many Katie Roses and Xty's out there. I found mine the old fashioned way... I picked her up and carried her away to my cave. Actually we had dated years earlier and I always regretted not committing. When I saw her walk out of a theater years later, I knew her well enough to do that. Literally, over my shoulder. That was 25 years ago.

But I have friends that have been successful on the online match sites. Married for years after meeting that way. Hope things go well for you. Keep the faith... or get the faith and things will go well.

Another good beard...

Cat Stevens - Hard Headed Woman
Dec 1, 2012 - 10:50am

More USD/EUR Fed bailout etc...

I wrote this comment a couple days ago.


I don't think the Fed.'s help will stop or be withdrawn until after Germany's election because one hand usually washes the other (i.e. U.S. election and the German/EU help keeping that mess stable). The U.S. wants Germany to be their ally (not China's) and there is this little matter of Germany's gold in the U.S. that is definitely a consideration in the mix imho that keeps things in a delicate balance.

My belief is that after the German elections is when the Fed. rug gets slowly pulled away and reveals the EUR crumbs it was covering up for. The 3 charts at ZH tell the entire picture.

I just came across this at ZH and it seems to echo what I was getting at so I'm posting it here.

Swaps, Banks, and Litigation Arbitrage

Submitted by CalibratedConfidence on 11/30/2012 23:59 -0500

The Bernank is beginning to wind down his "non-bailout" of Europe. On 12/14/2011 the Chairsatan himself reportedly told Senator Corker that he had no intentions of furthering the US's involvement in the European Crisis. Coincidently a few weeks later CNBC interviewed Gerald O'Driscoll, who is a previous Dallas Fed Vice President, after he released an Op-ed in the WSJ calling out the FED's European bailout. O'Driscoll is dead on with his claims about Bernanke bailing out Europe and his suspicions about Bernanke's reasoning behind going through the FED market arm to lend USD to the ECB.The Bernank is beginning to wind down his "non-bailout" of Europe. On 12/14/2011 the Chairsatan himself reportedly told Senator Corker that he had no intentions of furthering the US's involvement in the European Crisis. Coincidently a few weeks later CNBC interviewed Gerald O'Driscoll, who is a previous Dallas Fed Vice President, after he released an Op-ed in the WSJ calling out the FED's European bailout. O'Driscoll is dead on with his claims about Bernanke bailing out Europe and his suspicions about Bernanke's reasoning behind going through the FED market arm to lend USD to the ECB.


Bernanke's "legal" reasons lie within the legal pages of sovereign nation courts and what Zerohedge pointed out before everyone else, the critically important "litigation arbitrage". Within this phrase are disputes between nations about the standing of the relationship of their governments and the nation's central bank also stated as whether a central bank is its own private entity or an "alter ego" of its sovereign nation (I've already covered this in detail here). That's where profit on this level is made. If a central bank interacts with the FRBNY FX Liquidity Swap Operations and it is for activities deemed to be public actions, not private profit actions, then the central bank is immune from default laws in the United States. Consider a previous FRBNY legal case involving two hedge funds and the Argentine central bank.

An IMF paper (embedded below the post) identifies "litagation arbitrage":

(click pic or go to ZH)

And that's just the tip of the primary reason why this facility is so important.

According to the FRBNY:

* these swap facilities (to) respond to the re-emergence of strains in short term funding markets in Europe.

* designed to improve liquidity conditions in global money markets and to minimize the risk that strains abroad could spread to U.S. markets, by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdiction....(cont.)

IMF Working Paper_Sovereign Chapt 11 Default Working Paper


Dec 1, 2012 - 10:59am

Oh fer cry-eye

People need to stop buying into the false paradigm of left/right, conservative / liberal, Republican / Democrat, etc/etc.

They're ALL just another version of the classic good cop / bad cop routine.

I haven't read a single thing, NOT ONE THING posted online about Barak Obama that I didn't read about George Bush from progressive websites when he was president, including how he will cancel the elections and not step down because he wants to be emperor.

Well, to be fair, I never read it posted that he wasn't a U.S. citizen, so that's an exception.

Regardless, it's easy to believe politicians are stupid, self-serving psychopaths, and I do, with rare exceptions like Ron Paul.

Saying Obama wants to 'destroy the military' so they won't stand in his way when he becomes emperor is not credible. Were Obama to attempt such a thing, it wouldn't be a mighty army that puts a stop to his nefarious scheme, it would be one or two generals with handguns.

I sympathize with the 'we're all going to hell in a hand-basket' mindset, but when I read the same things about Bush repeated about Obama over and over, it tends to blunt the credibility a bit.

I think the truth is they're both stupid, self-serving psychopaths. Maybe Obama isn't as stupid as Bush, but the jury's still out on that one.

Dec 1, 2012 - 11:11am


MR. FIX...........yessirabsolutely...........

interesting to see how your post is treated in an everincreasing turdville turn to the left.

Though I don't really buy into the phony left/right dichotomy, I have to say if you think I'm coming from a leftist perspective it just means you don't know me very well.

The real dichotomy is between those who just want to be left alone and those who just won't leave them alone.

If you think the state should be taking my money by force to fund Lockheed Martin and the Pentagram Pentagon or to prop up our "friends" in far places you are not on the same side of the divide as I am.

Dec 1, 2012 - 11:13am

Paper with Ink on it

I need some paper with ink on it. I could make my own but the market isn’t confident. In fact the market has so little confidence in my paper with ink on it that I am in danger of arrest and/or ridicule if I try to use my brand of paper with ink on it. I need some special paper with ink on it. What makes it special? Someone told me it was special and I believed them.

read the rest at:


I Run Bartertown
Dec 1, 2012 - 11:17am

Why would a General do that, mudsharkbytes?

Now, a Colonel..they're the crazy ones . It will be one of them who will lead us...with perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure will.

Apocalypse Now - Colonel Kurtz's Monologue

"Were Obama to attempt such a thing, it wouldn't be a mighty army that puts a stop to his nefarious scheme, it would be one or two generals with a handgun."


Presidential Memorandum -- National Insider Threat Policy and Minimum Standards for Executive Branch Insider Threat Programs - https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/11/21/presidential-memorandum-national-insider-threat-policy-and-minimum-stand

"On the day before Thanksgiving, Barack Hussein Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum, or an unofficial directive to the heads of departments and agencies under the executive branch. This Presidential Memorandum, the text of which is only 183 words, directs agency and department heads to establish a program “to deter, detect, and mitigate actions by employees who may represent a threat to national security.” - https://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/51313

Much like all of Obama’s other directives, Executive Orders and findings, there is a disturbing level of ambiguity contained within this memorandum. "

Dec 1, 2012 - 11:28am


Instead of working for larger firms that have HR-CYA-itis, if you're not able to stay on where you are you may best look at the smaller, specialty, privately owned shops or consultancies that hire or subcontract.

The company I work for now has less than fifty employees, that's how I managed to get in. A former colleague was looking for help. He brought me in one day and sat me in front of a telephone (I started in customer support). No muss, no fuss, a 3 month contract then a full time position. I didn't even have to fill out an application. The problem is, partly, they now have aspirations to bigness and I don't fit the model.

I've got a few contacts with some of our customers and the consultants who work for them (not to mention a copy of the customer database). If I lose my job I'll be going to them to try to find some short term gigs. I am not without hope, I just don't want to go through the uncertainty and trauma. I like most of the people I work with and the job is interesting and challenging. Given the choice I'd work there till I couldn't work any more. It simply looks like they don't feel the same way about me. At least not any more.

ClinkinKY Mudsharkbytes
Dec 1, 2012 - 11:29am

@ Mudsharkbytes--Sincere question

They're ALL just another version of the classic good cop / bad cop routine.


Isn't this what people do here every day regarding the "EE" vs the "Free Market"?

I'd really like your take on the difference. Thanks.

And just to be clear, I'm on the side that believes the "EE" is winning.

Dec 1, 2012 - 11:36am


i enjoy your posts and did not mention you or mean to insinuate anything about you.

i was just agreeing w/fix.

and making a personal observation of turdville, now.

Mudsharkbytes ClinkinKY
Dec 1, 2012 - 11:37am

@ Clinkin - EE vs The World

Yes, you're right, that too is a binary system.

The main difference is this dichotomy came about due to the observance of intelligent, well informed people. It wasn't imposed by a corrupt political system aided by a compliant media.

I know this ruffles some feathers, but I just don't seem to see much difference in outcome between republicans and democrats or the left and the right or conservatives and liberals. They talk a good talk but they all seem to walk the same walk.

However, you cannot say that is the case between the "EE" and the "Free Market".

It's especially bad during the political season, but regardless of the season, we're constantly encouraged by the media, radio personalities, etc… to pick sides because one side is right and one is wrong, so we, as a culture, do. It's not much different than cheering for your city's football team except the stakes are higher.

One thing the media doesn't do, though, is try to get us to pick sides in the "EE Vs The World" debate. They are squarely behind the EE. It is only when groups of well informed people gather, such as here, that intelligent debate occurs.

That, I think is the difference.

BagOfGold Larry
Dec 1, 2012 - 11:37am

Larry...you said...

Now, finding a good woman will require even more work.

It depends on what you define a "good woman" to be!...I may be too hard for you to handle!!!...

Yes-R - Good Girls Gone Bad (Official Video HD)

Bag Of Gold

Dec 1, 2012 - 11:48am


Fair enough.

I don't see so much a leftist as a distinct populist trend lately. Populism is OK, in and of itself, but it can become a mob without much prompting. Every time someone post a Max Keiser or Bill Sill video I want to scream. Disclaimer: I start stacking because of Max's "Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver" campaign, so I try to cut him some slack, but the day he attacked Ludwig von Mises I had to cut him loose. Bill Sill is just another greenbacker so he can go suck an egg as far as I'm concerned.

Mr. Fix boatman
Dec 1, 2012 - 11:50am

@ boatman

You said:

"interesting to see how your post is treated in an ever increasing Turdville turn to the left."

I find that remark very interesting,
in that I had not noticed a decided turn to the left in "Turdville".

In my opinion, of all of the sites spread across the Internet,

TF metals is a bastion of conservative philosophy.

It seems like exceptions to that rule do not last long here.

Liberalism can not mount a cohesive argument to support its position.
In the end, it is a completely self-destructive philosophy, and any thoughtful, rational analysis will come to this conclusion.

Admittedly, my point of view could be considered just a tad more radical then mainstream conservatism,
but in the end, I agree with
all I want is to be left alone.

I also agree with Puck, that the traditional right versus left, or red versus blue debate is pointless. Conservatism no longer has any political power, or any voice at all in the mainstream arena of ideas.

Admittedly, I am a recovering Republican, with a libertarian philosophy. The Republican Party has also sold out America in a major way.

Simply witnessing their treatment of a true patriot like Ron Paul, or the tea party is enough confirmation.

Both sides seem to believe that using the United States Constitution as a guide towards forming policy is either a antiquated concept, or coming from a fringe kook element of society.

I personally am astounded at the lack of “left versus right” debate on this site.

Sometimes I genuinely feel like there is no one here to debate.

In very many ways, and particularly in the ones that are most important, the residence of "Turdville" are very much all on the same page.

I Run Bartertown
Dec 1, 2012 - 12:05pm

L/R it's all hazy

I had my time as a Constitutionalist (it is no protection...was a great document, though), and a Libertarian...

In theory (and, if we had the populace of the late eighteenth century), I still would be. I have leanings that could be described as beyond minarchist to anarchist, but 'labelled' anarchists are generally confused Marxists (not you, Puck, but I think you're a rarity), so to hell with them.

I've become flexible. I simply hate the things OUR current .gov does (mostly at Federal level in the judicial and regulatory arenas). I'd prefer they simply lacked the power to do so, but if there rose a movement to tear it down, but it rested on STILL having an overly big and powerful government, I'd still support it. Not out of ideology necessarily, but out of self-defense. Sure, I'd like a smaller .gov, but if the .gov MUST be all up in someones' lives, let them loose on the truly destructive and dysfunctional. rather than creating dysfunctional hordes to keep the productive in check. So, at this stage, I'd settle for a .gov that I thought might be on my side regardless of a label or an ideology. Sad times when the best you can hope to say is "it might be a junta, but it's MY junta" but at least one can attempt to be on the right end of the Jackboot.

Dec 1, 2012 - 12:30pm
Dec 3, 2012 - 2:49pm

Just for arguments sake...

...Mama, let your babies grow up to be cowboys

Fattened Cats

Cowboy Confessional


Don’t worry about the so-called 1%. They allegedly came by their wealth honestly.

Congress on the other hand …

During the Great Recession, the wealth gap between congress and their constituents grew at a spritely pace. At the high end, congress’s cornucopia continued growing by 14% while you and your neighbors’ prosperity plummeted about 39%. On a good day it is damn difficult to like your average congress critter. Knowing that their holdings grew as the world economy imploded illuminates two well known facts: that being connected is profitable and that pitchforks remain viable corrective implements.

Crony connectivity accounts for part of this growing wealth disparity. So does the fact that the rich (a.k.a. your representatives) know how to get richer even in bad times. Our national bad habit of electing wealthy people skews the numbers a bit. But as demonstrated by Obama’s largess to union bosses via his deceivingly described “stimulus” spending, knowing people who spend your tax money is a fast path to wealth. The price for playing loot the lucre is giving back to those that gave.

Which may explain why Democrat defalcator in congress grew fatter than their Republican reprobates.

This brings to the fore an interesting perspective on the “party of the little man.” Seventy percent of the top ten wealthiest denizens of Capitol Hill are Democrats. Even after removing John Kerry and is wealth-by-marriage, the ship of stolen state still lists left. Interestingly, two shrill succubi from San Francisco – the wraithlike former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the increasingly oval Diane Feinstein – occupy the top ten list of the Hill’s sale riche. Pelosi’s plunder makes her 1,513 times richer than the average American, which is wealthy even by congressional standards.

It is no mystery then why candidates spent six billion bucks this year to bribe their way into office. The stakes are big for these bagmen and the people for who they divert dough. The $1.3 trillion in forthcoming discretionary spending (for things like tanks and courts of law) contains enough subsidies, scandalous spending and outright grants that thieves of all flavors are granted grifting gifts. That congress continues to gratify goat farmers to make mohair for long-abandoned warware is only a small example of how your congressman redirects your taxes into your neighbors’ pocket.

Congress is the 1%. Not the wealthiest people, but the pinnacle of pickpockets, the most proficient and productive of pilferers. Perhaps occupying congress is an appropriate protest.


Katie Rose...perhaps another income for you?:)

gratify goat farmers

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TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
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