Guest Post: "Smelly Smoke Signals" by NN-L

Thu, Nov 29, 2012 - 10:27am

Our pal, Ned, has cranked out a very interesting piece regarding the recent suspension, by the LBMA, of the publication of silver forward rates (SIFO). In an effort to give this article as wide of distribution as possible, it is reprinted below.

The most interesting and compelling part of all this is the timing. The LBMA decided to suspend SIFO reporting at the close of business on Friday, November 2. At that exact same moment, some newly-created measures of backwardation such as Sandeep Jaitly's "Basis/Co-Basis" were literally screaming of extreme backwardation and physical tightness. (More details here: The question is: Is there a direct connection here or is this all just a strange coincidence?...and I think you know how I feel about coincidences in the metals markets.

So, what do we know? Well...

  • Massive, recent physical purchases by Sprott, the Royal Canadian Mint et al.
  • Huge drawdowns of silver from SLV and ZKB.
  • Startling day-to-day turnover at bullion bank vaults
  • Highest total silver open interest on the Comex since October 2010.
  • I'll even add this: Tremendous recent price strength in face of blatant capping and manipulation.

What does it all mean? Maybe nothing. Maybe price will continue to languish while we patiently wait for the price to catch up with the fundamentals. Maybe, though, this is the beginning. Maybe we are finally about to see the incredible short squeeze and signal failure which we've all been expecting and was narrowly averted in May of 2011. Maybe we are about to witness something explosive and historic.

Maybe. We'll see. Just BTFD.


(Will edit and load as a scribd in a few minutes.)

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 29, 2012 - 10:43am

laughing all the way


Nov 29, 2012 - 10:44am



Nov 29, 2012 - 10:45am

thank you again!

smoke signals... and fire beacons!

what better place to see those than from here... the watchtower!

Nov 29, 2012 - 10:46am

JS Kim

Check out the second video from 11/29/12. Following his rant against the banksters he is almost giddy with what happened with miners by days end yesterday.

Looking good Billy Ray

Feeling good Lewis

Looking Good Billy Ray
Mr. Fix
Nov 29, 2012 - 10:50am

Got it!...........(FIRST!!!)

Eat that Blythe!

Thank you Turd for all you do.

You said:

"Maybe we are about to witness something explosive and historic."


Being here is like having a front row seat to the main event.

Nov 29, 2012 - 10:52am

Hey, I'm in the "UP A BUCK" Club...

Hat tip me if you bought yesterday and can now say, "I'm in the Up a Buck Club"...!

Oh, and top 10 too!


ps. I know it's gay

القراع عصفور
Nov 29, 2012 - 10:56am

Tear The Roof Off The Sucker

parliament - give up the funk
Nov 29, 2012 - 10:59am

Turd ... and Ned... thank you

I have been itching for nearly a month to see that explanation, which is almost exactly as I imagined it to be. No doubt there is a lot more to be known other than that silver is in short supply and backwardation is rampant - the names and faces of gibbering executives, the whisky knocked back after late meetings and the profane orders barked to traders would all be so gratifying to behold but no doubt these will not emerge, not now and perhaps not ever. Such details are in any case of no practical use to us, who by this incredible and oft-underestimated stroke of good fortune still have the opportunity with knowledge of the essential situation and with relative ease to purchase both precious metals at such ridiculously low prices and hold them out of harm's way.

Nov 29, 2012 - 11:03am

Feed the Turd


Please, folks. This site is invaluable.

Turd and the rest of you gave me the confidence to buy USLV yesterday morning at $35.10.

With it at $38.77 as I write, you can imagine I'm smiling at at 10.5% gain in 24 hours.


S Roche
Nov 29, 2012 - 11:10am

SIFO Cessation

The rest of the "key extract from the LBMA announcement", with the bit omitted by Ned highlighted:

"The reason for the withdrawal of the dataset was that unlike GOFO these rates were indicative rates only and therefore not dealable rates between forward Market Makers. In addition, since January 2011, the LBMA forward Market Makers have jointly contributed essentially the same data (but covering an extended range of maturities – from spot to 3 years) to the LBMA’s daily forward curve for silver. This forward curve can be obtained from a variety of data vendors (Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and others)."

and here are the data vendors listed: Not difficult to contact them directly.

Sorry, sounds like a beat-up but I will be happy to be proven wrong.

(No hat-tips please, by request.)

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Recent Comments

by Blackwatersailor, 33 min 44 sec ago
by SilverSpec, 1 hour 8 min ago
by SilverSpec, 1 hour 13 min ago
by SilverSpec, 1 hour 16 min ago

Forum Discussion

by SilverSpec, 1 hour 20 min ago
by SilverSpec, 1 hour 32 min ago
by J Siefert, 12 hours 1 min ago