Still Churning

Tue, Nov 27, 2012 - 11:04am

Big surprise, huh? And I wouldn't expect much excitement the rest of this week either. Next month, though?...

For this week, however, we are stuck. Stuck with options expiration. Stuck with First Notice Day. Stuck in a moment and you can't get out of it. At least until next week.

For today, the algos are in charge and The Cartels are ensuring that price gets pegged where they want/need it for option expiration and the CoT survey. I don't expect any substantial rallies but I don't expect any major selloffs, either. The charts below are provided in order to show you where I would expect buying support to kick in should a selloff accidentally generate some downside momentum.

Now, as we head into the rest of the week and First Notice Day on Friday, expect a general tone of weakness and and more of this current sluggishness. Why? More sellers than buyers.

  • First, The Cartels want to "dissuade" as many as possible from standing for delivery. They, the Comex and the CME simply want everyone to roll into the next delivery months and continue on with the (very profitable) paper games.
  • More significantly is the impact of human nature. If you have a trading position of 100 Dec12 gold contracts and you have no intention of taking delivery, you're going to have to sell those babies before the close on Friday. You'll most likely want to roll all 100 into the you do that all at once? Maybe, instead, you buy 50 Feb13s on Friday and then you hold off on buying the other 50 until next week, hoping to get a better price and a lower overall basis? In this example, there's 100 contracts of selling pressure but only 50 contracts of immediate buying pressure. Down goes price (a little) and down goes Open Interest (a little) until the other 50 contracts are put back on.

Between these two influences, we're likely stuck with a weak metals market until next week.

But then the fun begins! All the fiscal cliff BS will really kick in in December. There will be plenty of talk about:

  • U.S. debt downgrades
  • Debt ceiling breaches and treasury defaults
  • $1T+ deficits ad infinitum
  • More "unsterilized" QE as Operation Twist ends on 12/31

All of this will propel gold and silver through the nasty and brutal, year-long caps of $1800 and $36. The stage will then be set for a remarkable, crazy, wild and...yes...historic 2013.

Therefore, keep the faith and hang in there. Take the next few days to step away from your computer for a while and do some Xmas shopping. Maybe, instead of another worthless, run-of-the-mill gift, you should instead hand out ASEs or Maples to all of your friends and family this year. I still have the first tube of ASEs to ever make it into my safe (at the bottom of an undisclosed lake). My brother gave them to me as a Christmas gift 7 or 8 years ago. Must have cost him about $100 back then. Worth about $700 now. Beats the crap out of the other gifts I received that year, none of which I can even recall today. I'm sure that the HAA, Provident or JMBullion will be happy to help you with all of your holiday shopping needs! smiley

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Just A Regular Guy
Nov 27, 2012 - 11:06am



Mr. Fix
Nov 27, 2012 - 11:07am

Congrats to Father Bill

You beat me fair and square.

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:08am


i like turd posts with "crazy" and "historic" in them

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:08am

Thirst! Edit: Oh, wait...

Oh wow! Just wow!

Edit: Hey, nofair. Since when is '.' a comment? sad

Oh well, Thurd.

Ferd Torgerson
Nov 27, 2012 - 11:10am


Not posting much nowadays but keeping track of things here. Amazing how the breadth and depth of info provided has expanded since last June when the new site opened.

Many thanks to you, Turd, and the many others who have helped expand our collective awareness of what is happening in the markets.


Nov 27, 2012 - 11:15am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:23am


....These stocks have got to go! Time to cut the loses and move on to bigger and better (physical) things.

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:26am

MTB can't deliver gold to COMEX

Blaming Sandy for failure to deliver?

CME Group declared a force majeure at one of its New York precious metals depositories yesterday, run by bullion dealer and major coin dealer Manfra, Tordella and Brooks (MTB), due to “operational limitations” posed by Hurricane Sandy.

MTB has “operational limitations” following Hurricane Sandy and can’t load gold bullion, platinum bullion or palladium bullion, CME Group Inc., the parent of the Comex and New York Mercantile Exchange, said today in a statement.

Could be nothing or could be huge!

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:26am


tinka resources, a canadian company exploring (silver/zinc/lead property) in peru is UP today by about 13%

toronto - tk

u. s. pinks - tkrff

anybody know why? news? rumors? other?

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:31am


Thanks Treefrog. Hadn't noticed, let alone know why. I own a bit of Tinka, and it was doing very well for me before this pop. It's nice to have some good news on the mining front.

Fr. Bill
Nov 27, 2012 - 11:32am

Limmerickless First

But I'll take it.

May this be an omen on the purchase I made at BV a while ago.


When one knows that a new post will soon appear, 'Cause Turd's note in the last post did me here steer, Then to count comment-coup A period will do! With an edit to make the dot disappear.
Mr. Fix
Nov 27, 2012 - 11:52am

American Patriot, where are you now?

An open letter to a troll:

When I started investigating my investment of gold and silver bullion coins,
it was already after I had withdrawn my life savings from the local bank,
and spent every dime of it on gold and silver American Eagles.
Lots of people said I was nuts, but that's another story.
It surprises me that after the time that I have spent here in Turdville,
I have not run into at least one refugee from a website I used to frequent,
in fact I was there almost daily from 2008 through early 2012.
Has anybody here posted on MarketWatch in that timeframe?
The reason I ask, is that I actually miss some of the people that I've had long conversations with.
One of them in particular, went by the name of American Patriot.
All I know for sure about American Patriot, is that he used Thomas Payne as his avatar.
There was much debate whether it was a him or her, old or young, or any other particularly personal information.
American Patriot at least stated that he or she lived in Southern California, and drove a BMW.
American Patriot love to bash gold, particularly on a down day.
One of America Patriots favorite sayings was that “gold would soon revert to its mean of $456.”

We would spend many evenings together debating government policy, the Federal Reserve, quantitative easing, (which he always denied was coming)
and he would always appear on multiple threads which would follow each and every story on MarketWatch.
On weekends, when the markets were closed, MarketWatch always ran a thread about a car that had been test driven recently.
He made it perfectly clear that his BMW was the only car worth owning.
Since I felt the same way about my Cadillac, we would often go a few rounds over that.

American Patriot was widely accepted as a propagandist and a troll.
He would defend Federal Reserve policy to the end,
thought that the bankers were the good guys,
that the only asset worth owning was the dollar,
and that it would soon soar to record heights,
everyone that owned gold and silver was going to get slaughtered,
you get the drift..........( he would quote John Nadler from Kitco daily.)

One thing that I always came to accept, was that many of my posts would mysteriously vanish when I went back to look at them.
Very often, everyone who had anything good to say about gold or silver, would simply disappear.
A few of us took it upon ourselves to make sure that the world knew that gold and silver (in its physical form),
where the only investments that would survive what is coming.

Many of the friends that I made would vanish on a regular basis, but often they would return with a new avatar, and a new screen name.
American Patriot however, never had a post deleted, regardless of how ridiculous he came across.

I suppose I made friends with him simply because he was always there.
Except for gold, silver, and his obsession with his BMW,
on most issues he actually came off as relatively sane.
At the time, we actually shared the same conservative philosophy on politics,
and he was no fan of the president.

Unfortunately, I got into a rather rowdy debate with somebody over our current administrations policies,
and not only did my posts get deleted that night,
but my entire account was gone.

I started a new account as “the repair man”, and actually got in touch with about 65 of my past 350 friends over the next two days.
However as fate would have it,
I got deleted again, and banned for life.

For a while, I would lurk in the background just to see what everyone has to say.
But more recently, they changed their format, and now everyone needs to use their real name,
and there are no more avatars.

I can't believe I missed such a crappy website as much as I did.
I'd really like to log on to MarketWatch one more time, just to tell American Patriot
that I miss our discussions, they would often last all night long,
and in the course of researching “my side of the debate” I learned a tremendous amount.
If any of you can still log onto MarketWatch,
and know how to contact the user formerly known as “American Patriot”,
I would appreciate it if you just said “Mr. Fix says hello, and he can now be found at TF metals."

Admittedly, he would not fit into this particular crowd very well,
I on the other hand am a far better fit at TF metals
then I was at Market Watch, (I'm sure I was a serious thorn in the administrators ass)
and I very much appreciate some of the friends that I've made here.
If you remember me from years ago,
drop me a note just to say hi,
if not,
I still appreciate your friendship.
From the bottom of my heart I want to thank Turd Ferguson for establishing this little corner of sanity in an insane world.
Have a nice day folks,
be back tonight.

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:53am


The only stock I own smiley

moguls treefrog
Nov 27, 2012 - 11:56am


The only thing I can see is a buy as speculative play and a longer-term investment

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:56am

Hey Turd

What about this comment that you just posted on Saturday, "Please be sure to return rested and ready come Monday, though. Next week is going to be very, very interesting." It's only Tuesday morning and you have already given up on this week being very, very interesting? What changed in the last 72 hours?

Also, this guy has a pretty good track record. He thinks if Gold doesn't move through 1800 soon, it is probably back to 1575.

Nov 27, 2012 - 11:57am

Quiet Days

On these quiet days, I like to celebrate by going to my LCS during lunch and buying 20 ASEs. It just makes me feel better.

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:04pm

further to turk

follow this link and see how the info dropped off...fwiw there was an explanation up there as to why they no longer report SIFO and it has now been removed.....

thurd aye
Nov 27, 2012 - 12:04pm

Didn't go for the rabid past of Mr.

But Mrs.seems quite refreshingly intelligent.So the BoE may yet prosper,who knows?

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:09pm

check out drill results....

to understand strength in TK. Can anyone say "Silver with a topping of ZINC." fairly pricing known reserves is happening now. IMO......There appears to be MORE. *not investment advice I am still buying here on b/o

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:11pm

I don't understand a word this guy is writing

Maybe neither does he?

"Why Gold Price Will NOT Break Above 1803 - MAP WAVE Analysis"

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:12pm



No way do I believe that Sandy has anything to do with MTB's failure to deliver. It's a plausbile excuse - one that most people will just accept without giving it a second thought... like most economic numbers. There is probably a lot of behind the scenes scrambling to keep up appearances. I agree it could be the start of physical default.

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:21pm


They keep hammering the miners at every opportunity. Goldcorp getting solidly beat up. With the highest weighting in the miner indexes, GG is the easiest target if you want to keep the miners in check ... and send a signal of a move down in gold. On the plus side ... a nice candidate if/when we turn on the miners for a big pop.

Two days in a row now where gold has barely moved but miners have been hit for a 1-2% downdraft. Yesterday saw the miners recover in the last hour. Today???

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:21pm


SGS has been advocating them for a couple. of years....couple of recent posts he made about them so head to his gaf for a read

The Watchman
Nov 27, 2012 - 12:23pm

More Demand For SILVER

Silver "Teabag" Purifies Water (Silver Institute)

Indian scientists from Amity University have developed a curious, portable water-purifying system. It looks like a teabag, but instead of tea it contains silver-imbedded pebbles. According to the developers, when placed in water, the purifier provides about 99% decontamination of microbes. Silver teabags are expected to remain effective for up to around 120-125 uses within a six-month period and can clean nearly 1,000 liters of water. The device does not use any electricity nor other energy source.

Scientists continue finding new and innovative uses for silver. This one could become important in areas with limited or no potable water.

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:23pm


Silvergoldsilver and the Fundamental View are all over Tinka. SGS nailed that liftoff.

BagOfGold agNau
Nov 27, 2012 - 12:24pm


Tinka Resources Limited is in Peru...a safer jurisdiction is Mexico...take a look at Xtierra Inc & their drill results!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Mr. Fix
Nov 27, 2012 - 12:27pm

RE, " MTB can't deliver gold to COMEX "........

We have all kown that a physical default would be unavoidable at a certain point in the future.
It is now shaping up to look more probable in December than at any time in history.
Of course, they are going to do anything they can do to keep the scam going,
and they will say anything they have to say, whether it is believable or not.
Blaming Sandy for not being able to deliver is as good a story as any.
But for those of us that have been paying attention,
we already know they are full of crap.
There is nothing to deliver,
it has all been stolen.
They are simply buying time,
while they bury the evidence.
These people are not even afraid of getting caught,
nobody will prosecute them.
After all,
they are the Evil Empire.
They can do what they want.

By the way, if you still own paper, it would be a really good time to get out of it while it is still worth something.
And if you are a stacker,
you do not have much longer to add to your stack.
This thing is about to explode.

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:33pm

Manfra vault

There have been several comments about the CME declaration of Force Majeur due to Hurricane Sandy, regarding the Manfra depository. To date no-one has pointed out that their gold holdings are less than 30,000 oz or the equivalent of 300 contracts.

For some perspective this amount is less than the gold delivered for November (39,300 oz), which is not a futures delivery month, and has the smallest delivery of the year.

So the effect on the ability of the COMEX, which reports 2,528,000 oz of dealer inventory, to deliver should be neglegible.

Nov 27, 2012 - 12:37pm

I guess you haven't noticed...

...but I say that pretty much every week!

Btw, I thought you'd left for good because of my "right-wing hate". Nice to see you back, nonetheless. surprise

The Watchman
Nov 27, 2012 - 12:37pm
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