Patiently Waiting

391
Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - 10:27am

I'm expecting a big December and an historic 2013. First things first, though, as we wait out December option expiration and the concurrent "Iron Dome" capping.

So, we sit. And wait. And wait some more. Who knows, maybe your Local Coin Shop will offer some Black Friday premium discounts? If so, take him up on it. Keep stacking and accumulating as much, much fun lies ahead.

For now, it's all about capping and controlling price through December option expiration day next Tuesday. Here are the two, major forces in play:

  1. Open interest in the Dec12 call options is enormous. As "StevenBHorse" kindly pointed out for us yesterday, there are currently 61,523 open contracts between 1735 and 1800. As Ruprecht would say: That's a lot. Of particular interest to The Gold Cartel is the startling 32,537 calls at the $1800 level. I would venture a guess that most of these positions were opened back in late September as nearly everyone (including yours truly) felt assured that, with the onset of QE∞, gold would be somewhere north of $1800 by Thanksgiving. Considering that every dollar above $1800 means $3,250,000 in option payout, the October beatdown from $1795 to $1690 seems rather predictable in hindsight.
  2. Both gold and silver are currently trading above every single one of their moving averages except one...the critical 50-day. The 5-day and 10-day are important, don't get me wrong. And the 200-day will almost always provide predictable support or resistance. The 50-day, however, is the biggie. Having price above or below the 50-day is one of the major determining factors as to whether or not the momo-chasing, HFT algos will be in buy mode or sell mode. At this juncture, a move UP and through the 50-day MAs will provide the final impetus for rallies back to $35-36 in silver and $1800 in gold. As I type, the 50-day MA in the Dec12 gold contract is at $1743.30 and the 50-day in the Dec12 silver is at $33.24.

So, what happens the rest of today and Friday? Probably not much. Just more of the same. HFTs are trolling for stops to harvest on either side so we'll likely continue to see trading in a very tight range.

The only possibility for "fun" might come early next week. Recall how those who are short calls or puts are often manipulated and gamed ahead of option expiry. For next week, the most likely possibility would be a squeeze of those who are short the $1750 calls...if there are a significant amount...and it's impossible to tell. If this happens, though, we'd see a quick spike toward $1750, followed by a further rally through $1750 as those who are short the 1750 calls panic and are forced to buy a futures contract in order to hedge. After a move to $1755 or so, gold would then revert back toward $1740-45 with the sheep having been successfully shorn. The open interest at 1750 may not be sufficient enough for this happen but we'll see. Keep an eye out, anyway.

Here are two current charts. Outside of another "Swiss Stair" accumulation pattern in silver, there's not a lot going on. That will soon change.

And, finally, it's the day before the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S. This means it is once again time to reprint one of my favorite posts, "Absolute Advice For Relatives". I wrote this two years ago, right after the onset of QE2. Though we've yet to see the extreme price inflation I was expecting, there can be no argument that the advice is still solid. (I mean, seriously, have you done your Thanksgiving grocery shopping yet? Sheesh!!)

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Be sure to check back later today for a very important guest post update.

TF

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/absolute-advice-for-relatives.html

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2010
Absolute Advice For Relatives
If you're like The Turd, you will most likely get peppered tomorrow with questions from pseudo-intellectual relatives regarding the current world/market environment. Your over-educated yet under-informed cousin or brother-in-law will seek out your current "wisdom" on investing, politics, etc. He or she will then feign interest while you speak but you will feel certain that, in the end, they just don't "get it" as your absolute conviction overwhelms their status quo mindset. You could probably talk for hours about the failure of Keynesianism, Quantitative Easing, the criminal political class, the fallacy of TBTF, POMO and the PDs, the infallibility of gold, etc...but why even try? Your cousin's husband doesn't understand any of this anyway and your show of intellect will only make him feel threatened. He'll quickly tune you out and run off to the family room to watch the Cowboys.

So what do you talk about tomorrow when someone asks? What kind of simple advice can give someone to prepare them for what is certain to be a very challenging year ahead? I plan to dial it back a bit and talk about one thing...inflation. And not just any old, run-of-the mill 3% inflation but serious inflation. I'm talking 20-30% inflation. Milk to $5/gallon kind of stuff. That is what's coming and its a topic most folks can actually get their arms around. Even the fuzzy-headed new boyfriend of your divorcee sister understands inflation and he might even be able to understand why its coming if you explain it well. (This is a chance for you to show off some of your worldly knowledge, too.)

Most folks with a high school-level understanding of economics (this includes your Fed governors) only understand and recognize demand-pull inflation. This is the classic demand side, Phillips Curve inflation that says rising wages, employment and wealth cause economic expansion which leads to more money chasing a static amount of goods. New, excess demand "pulls" prices up and the result is price inflation. Pretty simple stuff. What is coming in 2011, however, is the forgotten beast of cost-push inflation. This type of price inflation is caused by producers and merchants being forced to pass along through higher prices the rising cost of inputs to their products. Consumers, particularly the lower-and-middle income, bear the brunt of the pain. Your income isn't rising to keep pace with rising expenses and you get squeezed. Hard. And its not luxury items that are going up in price, its the staples. Bread, milk, gasoline, clothes, eggs, meat...the basics that no one can realistically live without. It's going to hurt and 2011 is going to be a mean year.

Why will input costs go up? Simple, they are all dollar-dominated and with our Fed now engaging in their final policy option, "QE to Infinity", all dollar-dominated assets are going up in price. Significantly. Your crazy uncle Henry may never take your advice to sell his stocks and buy precious metals but he just might take your advice to stock up now on essentials, before the prices skyrocket. Tell him that if he's going out to buy a new pair of pants, he should buy two. Tell your sister that instead of just buying her kids' winter coats for this year, she should buy coats for next year, too. Tell your cousin that instead of buying groceries every week to, instead, buy a whole dressed-out cow and put it in the freezer along with all the other dried and canned goods she can store.

Still, most crazy relatives won't listen but at least, come next Thanksgiving, they'll remember that you were right. One down side, however. Because you'll end up being the only member of the family that will have prepared and, most likely, the only one with affordable food to eat, you'll probably have to host everyone at your house next Thanksgiving. Oh well, there's a cure for that, too. Wine. Lots and lots of wine. Keep a couple of good Pinots on reserve and you'll be able to handle just about anybody.

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  391 Comments

  Refresh
pourty
Nov 23, 2012 - 3:03pm

@Katie Rose

50 pound turkey???

Please post a photo! I didn't even realize such a thing was possible until I read your post and googled it!

I wanted to thank you, by the way, for your great questions to Lindsey Williams on the radio show the other day. You got him to answer questions I've had for a very long time. You are a gem!

Torpedo Fish
Nov 23, 2012 - 3:00pm

PM sale next week?

I am going to open some shorts here at $34.05 - 20% of all the longs I currently have.
My reasoning for that is just my gut feeling about EUR/USD 1.2974, it just feels too high. I hope Harvey is right and we get a smack down next week. I will load 50% more longs if silver goes below 33.50

Norman Finkelstein is da man:
https://maxkeiser.com/2012/11/23/dr-norman-finkelstein-is-the-steve-jobs...

Bollocks
Nov 23, 2012 - 2:34pm

Steve Keen on private money creation...

... and the myth of fractional reserve lending.

Video unavailable
SIlverbee
Nov 23, 2012 - 2:30pm

I am rolling a donner kebab joint at the moment

One of life's little pleasures.

Why though so much meat and skimp on the salad!

Oh well off for some more chilli sauce.

PS is the US markets closed on Monday? and option expiry Tuesday?

Antrobus
Nov 23, 2012 - 2:16pm

$100 Bills Make Up 80% of All U.S. Currency—but Why?

So, if you had $1000 in your wallet, it could be 8*100, 2*50, 2*20, 5*10 and 10*1 - total 27 bills, 80% of the value being 100s, but only 30% of the bills are 100s, so what exactly is the headline saying? 80% of the bills out there are 100s, or 80% of the value is in 100s?

Katie Rose
Nov 23, 2012 - 2:11pm

A Thanksgiving Surprise

I stay out of the kitchen on Thanksgiving. It is not my domain. It is not a safe place for me to be when major cooking is happening. My sister used to have a gourmet food business, and on Thanksgiving I run for cover. So imagine my surprise when I sat down to eat and noticed that the menu was different this year.

- turkey - home grown and beyond delicious. He provided 50 pounds of meat, more than my Icelandic lamb! He was one ugly boy...

- squash - home grown and mouth watering good

- potatoes - from our garden. Yum! Yum!

- green beans - so tender, I planted and harvested them myself

- cherry/berry jelly - a substitute for cranberry sauce, home canned, and home grown

- fancy raspberry jell-o - our berries

- apple pie - apples from our 80 year old tree

- cheddar cheese spread - from my goat's milk, just too tangy for me, but everyone else loved it.

This is the very first year that nearly everything we ate came from our land. Our attempt at perma-culture with wheat was a terrible flop. The quail found and ate all the wheat seed. That's why I said "nearly everything" we ate came from our land.

I'm thinking that is pretty darn cool! This old hippy is back in the garden and loving it very much.

Now if the Feds would just leave WA State alone so I can legally grow some marijuana, I will be one very, very happy/thankful woman!

Hagarth
Nov 23, 2012 - 1:51pm

Falling USD PMs Up

Most of this action today looks like a loss of USD strength rather than anything else in regards to silver. Gold on the other hand is outpacing silvers rise by .007% so there is a bit of extra buying taking place.

Surfing through the news this prompted a physical response, in the past I have done this and from now on I amy have to lie about what the loan is for.

Indian Banks Banned from Lending for Gold Purchases

India's central bank meantime has banned banks from lending money for the purposes of buying gold.

"It is advised that no advances should be granted by banks for purchase of gold in any form, including primary gold, gold bullion, gold jewellery, gold coins, units of gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) and units of gold mutual funds" said a statement issued by the Reserve Bank of India Monday.

https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37641.html

ClinkinKY
Nov 23, 2012 - 1:42pm

"Patiently Waiting"...for delivery of bullion

Hmmm, can't imagine why.../s

------------------------------------

From Numismaster.com

Delays in Bullion Delivery

By Patrick A. Heller
November 19, 2012

In the past week, I have seen postings and received a growing number of reports of coin dealers selling out of physical gold and silver coins and ingots and having trouble getting in quick replacements. At the most extreme, a buyer in a western state was told by two local dealers from whom he has made purchases that Canada gold Maple Leaves and South Africa Krugerrands are now at least two weeks delivery after payment and that U.S. 90 percent silver coin could take as long as 4-5 weeks to get.

My company has fairly deep inventories on hand, so have been able to deliver pretty much all product immediately or only after a short delay thus far. However, September was our highest sales volume month so far in 2012, which record was then surpassed in October. November sales thus far are well ahead of October’s pace. Combining this information with what other dealers and would-be purchasers are reporting, it seems that there is a definite uptick in customer demand in the United States.

read more:https://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=26128&et_mid=591223&rid=165327838

JackT
Nov 23, 2012 - 1:35pm

Why pay taxes?? / Huge increase in circulating $100 bills

Two articles, too good not to share. Apologies if either were already posted...

Economic IQ test: If the national debt doesn't matter, then why are we still paying federal income taxes?

( https://www.naturalnews.com/038069_national_debt_income_tax_social_engin... ) Be sure to follow the "tax farm" link therein, as it leads to an light Roman history lesson.

The author's conclusion won't surprise anyone here at TFMR.

$100 Bills Make Up 80% of All U.S. Currency—but Why?

(https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/11/-100-bills-make-up-...)

An increase from 50% in 1990 to >80% now. Where is this mountain of money?!?

Grublux
Nov 23, 2012 - 1:07pm

And closing out the weekly chart

Looking positive to me...

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