Patiently Waiting

Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - 10:27am

I'm expecting a big December and an historic 2013. First things first, though, as we wait out December option expiration and the concurrent "Iron Dome" capping.

So, we sit. And wait. And wait some more. Who knows, maybe your Local Coin Shop will offer some Black Friday premium discounts? If so, take him up on it. Keep stacking and accumulating as much, much fun lies ahead.

For now, it's all about capping and controlling price through December option expiration day next Tuesday. Here are the two, major forces in play:

  1. Open interest in the Dec12 call options is enormous. As "StevenBHorse" kindly pointed out for us yesterday, there are currently 61,523 open contracts between 1735 and 1800. As Ruprecht would say: That's a lot. Of particular interest to The Gold Cartel is the startling 32,537 calls at the $1800 level. I would venture a guess that most of these positions were opened back in late September as nearly everyone (including yours truly) felt assured that, with the onset of QE∞, gold would be somewhere north of $1800 by Thanksgiving. Considering that every dollar above $1800 means $3,250,000 in option payout, the October beatdown from $1795 to $1690 seems rather predictable in hindsight.
  2. Both gold and silver are currently trading above every single one of their moving averages except one...the critical 50-day. The 5-day and 10-day are important, don't get me wrong. And the 200-day will almost always provide predictable support or resistance. The 50-day, however, is the biggie. Having price above or below the 50-day is one of the major determining factors as to whether or not the momo-chasing, HFT algos will be in buy mode or sell mode. At this juncture, a move UP and through the 50-day MAs will provide the final impetus for rallies back to $35-36 in silver and $1800 in gold. As I type, the 50-day MA in the Dec12 gold contract is at $1743.30 and the 50-day in the Dec12 silver is at $33.24.

So, what happens the rest of today and Friday? Probably not much. Just more of the same. HFTs are trolling for stops to harvest on either side so we'll likely continue to see trading in a very tight range.

The only possibility for "fun" might come early next week. Recall how those who are short calls or puts are often manipulated and gamed ahead of option expiry. For next week, the most likely possibility would be a squeeze of those who are short the $1750 calls...if there are a significant amount...and it's impossible to tell. If this happens, though, we'd see a quick spike toward $1750, followed by a further rally through $1750 as those who are short the 1750 calls panic and are forced to buy a futures contract in order to hedge. After a move to $1755 or so, gold would then revert back toward $1740-45 with the sheep having been successfully shorn. The open interest at 1750 may not be sufficient enough for this happen but we'll see. Keep an eye out, anyway.

Here are two current charts. Outside of another "Swiss Stair" accumulation pattern in silver, there's not a lot going on. That will soon change.

And, finally, it's the day before the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S. This means it is once again time to reprint one of my favorite posts, "Absolute Advice For Relatives". I wrote this two years ago, right after the onset of QE2. Though we've yet to see the extreme price inflation I was expecting, there can be no argument that the advice is still solid. (I mean, seriously, have you done your Thanksgiving grocery shopping yet? Sheesh!!)

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Be sure to check back later today for a very important guest post update.


Absolute Advice For Relatives
If you're like The Turd, you will most likely get peppered tomorrow with questions from pseudo-intellectual relatives regarding the current world/market environment. Your over-educated yet under-informed cousin or brother-in-law will seek out your current "wisdom" on investing, politics, etc. He or she will then feign interest while you speak but you will feel certain that, in the end, they just don't "get it" as your absolute conviction overwhelms their status quo mindset. You could probably talk for hours about the failure of Keynesianism, Quantitative Easing, the criminal political class, the fallacy of TBTF, POMO and the PDs, the infallibility of gold, etc...but why even try? Your cousin's husband doesn't understand any of this anyway and your show of intellect will only make him feel threatened. He'll quickly tune you out and run off to the family room to watch the Cowboys.

So what do you talk about tomorrow when someone asks? What kind of simple advice can give someone to prepare them for what is certain to be a very challenging year ahead? I plan to dial it back a bit and talk about one thing...inflation. And not just any old, run-of-the mill 3% inflation but serious inflation. I'm talking 20-30% inflation. Milk to $5/gallon kind of stuff. That is what's coming and its a topic most folks can actually get their arms around. Even the fuzzy-headed new boyfriend of your divorcee sister understands inflation and he might even be able to understand why its coming if you explain it well. (This is a chance for you to show off some of your worldly knowledge, too.)

Most folks with a high school-level understanding of economics (this includes your Fed governors) only understand and recognize demand-pull inflation. This is the classic demand side, Phillips Curve inflation that says rising wages, employment and wealth cause economic expansion which leads to more money chasing a static amount of goods. New, excess demand "pulls" prices up and the result is price inflation. Pretty simple stuff. What is coming in 2011, however, is the forgotten beast of cost-push inflation. This type of price inflation is caused by producers and merchants being forced to pass along through higher prices the rising cost of inputs to their products. Consumers, particularly the lower-and-middle income, bear the brunt of the pain. Your income isn't rising to keep pace with rising expenses and you get squeezed. Hard. And its not luxury items that are going up in price, its the staples. Bread, milk, gasoline, clothes, eggs, meat...the basics that no one can realistically live without. It's going to hurt and 2011 is going to be a mean year.

Why will input costs go up? Simple, they are all dollar-dominated and with our Fed now engaging in their final policy option, "QE to Infinity", all dollar-dominated assets are going up in price. Significantly. Your crazy uncle Henry may never take your advice to sell his stocks and buy precious metals but he just might take your advice to stock up now on essentials, before the prices skyrocket. Tell him that if he's going out to buy a new pair of pants, he should buy two. Tell your sister that instead of just buying her kids' winter coats for this year, she should buy coats for next year, too. Tell your cousin that instead of buying groceries every week to, instead, buy a whole dressed-out cow and put it in the freezer along with all the other dried and canned goods she can store.

Still, most crazy relatives won't listen but at least, come next Thanksgiving, they'll remember that you were right. One down side, however. Because you'll end up being the only member of the family that will have prepared and, most likely, the only one with affordable food to eat, you'll probably have to host everyone at your house next Thanksgiving. Oh well, there's a cure for that, too. Wine. Lots and lots of wine. Keep a couple of good Pinots on reserve and you'll be able to handle just about anybody.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Grublux CaribSurfKing
Nov 21, 2012 - 8:13pm

And another thing

U r talking saving (Au Ag) vs speculation (Apple)

google and Samsung will have apples lunch

Nov 21, 2012 - 8:14pm

I’m a bit of an Audiophile -

I’m a bit of an Audiophile - this is weird in its own right - mention that you’re also a stacker of PM’s to anyone and the looks are similar as to an alien sighting.

The Watchman
Nov 21, 2012 - 8:38pm
Nov 21, 2012 - 8:48pm

I no longer trust any predictions

After over a year and a halfs worth of boring sideways action and seeing each and every rally beaten into submission in no time at all, I've reached the point where I no longer believe silver will go anywhere, sort of.

Let me clarify.

I realize it's inevitable that the metals will someday be worth many multiples of their current value, so I also realize that someday there will be an unable-to-beat-into-submission rally that sustains its gains and becomes the new floor. By never allowing myself to fall into the mindset that "this time it's for real", I can never be disappointed. Every time I check the price of silver and see its been whapped again I say "thank you sir, may I have another"?

Someday I won't have to say that and it'll be a pleasant surprise when that happens.

Zoltan CaribSurfKing
Nov 21, 2012 - 8:55pm

Some other stocks to plot for your family

I know Apple is a shining star right now but have your family plot Nortel (or even Blackberry) or any of a dozen other stocks that have tanked over the last ten years.

It is easy to cherry pick one of the stocks that has outperformed the market. They are comparing apples and oranges however (ooohhhh bad joke, sorry)


Nov 21, 2012 - 9:03pm

Me too jolidacrown :)

I'm lucky to have a couple of music rooms, but this is the setup that sounds best, even with these deceptively small speakers (which sound really great).

All analogue and valve amps wink. Totally mental sound and volume from "just" 40 watts output.

Another myth crushed - quality of sound and volume has NOTHING to do with amplifier power output. It's to do with speaker efficiency.

edit: Ummm, ok the cables are made of SILVER!
Phew, got away with it again, hopefully surprise.

jolidacrown Bollocks
Nov 21, 2012 - 9:05pm


Very nice indeed.

Nov 21, 2012 - 9:18pm


I still have one of the old Carver amps (1.0T, I think). Not tube quality, but damn, it could put out power if it had to.

Nov 21, 2012 - 9:37pm

America's Gold

Video unavailable

Title: Treadwell Gold Mine five hundred feet under the ocean

  • Date Created/Published: 1916.

Nov 21, 2012 - 9:51pm

Nat Geo ~ Down To The Earth's Core (HD)

Video unavailable

Get up close and personal with Earth in a way you probably have never imagined. Down to the Earth's Core takes viewers from the sidewalk to the centre of the planet in one epic unbroken shot. Using spectacular computer generated imagery; the camera smashes through almost 9 000 kilometres of solid rock to explore the hidden world beneath our feet. Experience an earthquake inside the San Andreas Fault, blast out of a volcano, encounter bizarre cave-dwelling creatures and enter caves full of giant crystals -- all inside planet Earth. As the camera lowers into Earth's bosom, the planet's extraordinary story, is laid bare layer by layer, showing how prehistoric forests became modern-day fuel, witnessing the dinosaur's cataclysmic death, and watching as stalactites form and gold grows before our eyes. Deeper, beyond the reach of any mine, any drill, we find wonders beyond imagination: towering molten metal tornadoes, forests of solid iron crystals, until we reach the strangest, least understood place on the planet -- the core. To infinity and beyond, this is Earth like never before.

Nov 21, 2012 - 10:11pm

Harvey's Up!

Brazil traded nuts for gold, or maybe they went nuts for gold. Anyway, Harvey talks about it. India is planning to offer gold bonds where you can deposit your gold and get paid interest. Of course, your gold may be gone when the bond matures, but details, shmetails. China is now the largest gold producer and consumer. No deal on Greece. Next can to kick is 26 Nov. Can Greece kick the can? You think they can, but can they? All this and more on the Harvey Report!


Nov 21, 2012 - 10:25pm

Thanksgiving Day 1885

Title: Thanksgiving day, 1885 / J. Keppler.

Summary: Illustration shows President Cleveland standing at the head of a table with his cabinet officers around the table at placemats labeled "Bayard, Manning, Garland, Whitney, Lamar, Endicott, [and] Vilas" as Puck delivers a large turkey on a platter labeled "With Compliments of all Good Citizens"; a notice on the wall in the background states "Public Office is a Public Trust". The centerpiece on the table is labeled "Prosperity".

Illus. from Puck, v. 18, no. 455, (1885 November 25), centerfold.

Nov 21, 2012 - 10:41pm

Margins lowered on futures?

I find this strange that they just lowered margins on gold and silver.

-$2k on gold and -$5k silver in a rising market?

are they trying to get more suckers pulled to take p. the longs?

less cash needed for shorts too.

The Watchman
Nov 21, 2012 - 10:52pm

US Mint-Another 287,000 ASEs Sold in Last 2 Days-NICE

2012 Silver Sales Totals
(in ounces / number of coins)
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
January 6,107,000
February 1,490,000
March 2,542,000
April 1,520,000
May 2,875,000
June 2,858,000
July 2,278,000
August 2,870,000
September 3,255,000
October 3,153,000
November 2,584,500
Total 31,532,500
Mr. Fix
Nov 21, 2012 - 10:55pm

@ Groaner

Is not even questionable that our banker buddies are trying to reel in more dumb money. The value of paper silver and gold just simply isn't what it used to be. They may never be able to bring confidence back into these markets, but they may be able to rope in a few more idiots before it all comes completely unglued. Anybody that invests in these particular investments, at this particular time, will inevitably lose all of their money. At least they are making it look like it's on sale, but it reeks of desperation to me.

Nov 21, 2012 - 11:01pm

How do you know that you are awake?

How do you know you are awake? You don't, for the same reason you didn't know that you were asleep.

The sense of being awake comes from having a world view that explains the present, predicts the future and is consistent with the past.

If the information we are given in the form of history, education and news cannot be depended upon, neither can the conclusions that we draw from it.

The key to being a valuable source of information to those around you is.

1. Learn to think critically. Then you can filter the information you received for junk and only pass on the good stuff.

2. Always show your working. Never ask friends to take your word on events that you do not directly control. A good argument consists of:

A. The facts that you have

B. The reasoning that lead to your conclusion

C. The presentation of your conclusion

IF when informing others about controversial issues, you stick to this principle, you give the listener a chance to contribute by checking your reasoning. The the conclusion turns out to be wrong due to some bad information, people are a lot more understanding if they followed the same path to the conclusion.

3. Always check the sources for your facts. Ever actually read what banks say about fractional reserve? Try it!

4. Never draw conclusions that go beyond the evidence. Mistakes like that damage credibility, and is dishonest.

If people went about the waking up process in this way, there would be many fewer sheepish folks at the thanksgiving table, just because silver went down $3

Mr. Fix
Nov 21, 2012 - 11:15pm

"How do you know that you are awake?"

I know that I am awake right now, because when I tried to fly, I simply fell on the ground.

Whenever I want to figure out whether I am dreaming or not,
I jumped up, and try to stay there.

If I am successful, I can fly to where ever I want to fly to,
and then do whatever it is I want to do,

With whoever I want to do it with.

Yes, sometimes waking up just sucks.

I can be absolutely certain that I am wide awake right now.

I learned how to have lucid dreams as a child,
it was the only way to cure reoccurring nightmares.

Now it's just fun as heck.wink

Dyna mo hum
Nov 22, 2012 - 12:03am

I think something is up with

all these dismissals in the past few weeks. I don't know about you folks but the first comment by Karla is intriguing.

Dyna mo hum
Nov 22, 2012 - 12:05am

Even though

Paula Broadwell seems to have banged every general except General Motors.

Nov 22, 2012 - 12:49am

military dismissal ???

it sure seems odd that this is just coming to lght now. there has to be something brewing this just isn't a coincidence

Nov 22, 2012 - 1:16am

military dismissal

Yeah every sensible high ranking official since Gen. Fallon that doesnt think WWIII is a fantastic idea has been sidelined apparently.

Quite surprised and impressed that the cease-fire was implemented in light of that bus bombing. But historically very few (zero) cease-fires have lasted in that region.

Dyna mo hum
Nov 22, 2012 - 1:19am


It is odd but a lot of the current crop of military officers must surely discuss things about the shenanigans of current inhabitant of the of the White House and the band of idiots B.O. has installed in high level positions. Benghazi just might have been the straw that broke the camels back. That oath the good men swore to has got to be eating their insides out. All enemies foreign and domestic come to mind?

Nov 22, 2012 - 2:01am

GSR clearly down yesterday,

GSR clearly down yesterday, accelerating towards 51.

I expect next peak in silver (34 ) today evening at Nymex close, rise tomorrow as well. Max Target 34, 5 Friday morning.

Then we may see some hesitation at GSR around 51 as its a powerful resistance, but in general, way to 48 seems to be opening up:

Katie Rose
Nov 22, 2012 - 2:53am

I am thankful!

There are times I feel so blessed that I really don't know how to express it. Tonight was such a night.

It has been cold, rainy, and windy for days. Even my basement is leaking on the north side, and water is slowly seeping in. Water, mud, water, mud everywhere. There was nothing in me that wanted to go outside in the dark and milk.

I procrastinated, I made excuses, I watched darkness overtake the raging storm outside and I told myself that I would milk first thing tomorrow morning.

And then my family forcefully let me know that there was no milk for breakfast, and "When was I going to milk??????"

"Was I going to let the goats suffer because I was too lazy to go out in the storm?"

And so I went, reluctantly I went. And my two milkers were so happy to see me.

In twenty minutes I had over a gallon of delicious raw, organic milk in my pail.

It never ceases to amaze me how such a simple act can bring me so much joy.

It's nearly midnight here. Tomorrow is Thanksgiving. What I have learned since walking away from my stressful real estate career, is that life offers many simple joyful moments if I will just slow down and notice.

Having a gallon of fresh, new milk is one of those moments.

Wishing you all a wonderful day tomorrow.

Nov 22, 2012 - 2:58am

I am thankful - - -

What a beautiful thing to say - we should all be thankful for the beautiful gift of life. All the best to all.

Nov 22, 2012 - 3:13am

Joy is - - -

Doing your own thing. Without being part of the nanny state. All human progress is achieved by the individual.

The Green Manalishi
Nov 22, 2012 - 4:49am

Hey Bollocks and Jolidacrown

We need to set up an Audiophile forum! smiley

Mines a bit Vintage.

TerrorTed babaganoush2307
Nov 22, 2012 - 4:56am

Socialist Thanksgiving?

Are you asserting that our shared Thanksgiving dinners are provided by the Government using other peoples money?

Because that's how Socialism works. Socialism is theft: it's 'sharing' at gunpoint.

Socialism is coercion. It is the use of naked force to steal from wealth-producers and then launder that stolen money into the pockets of an entitled voter-class. All the time perpetuating a nomenklatura of marxist oligarchs who direct the theft and get rich off the proceeds.

Your lame postcard made no sense.

The Green Manalishi
Nov 22, 2012 - 6:57am

What really happened when Hitlerry Clinton Tripped

Hillary Clinton falls Boarding plane [what really happened]
vonburpenstein Horst
Nov 22, 2012 - 8:20am

Horst says "Silver OI is highest..."

"...that it's been since 08/2010..."

Funny, when I think back about it...August 2010 was a month before I was 'Awakened'...which resulted in my 1st purchase shortly thereafter, AND THE ONLY TIME I EVER WAS ABLE TO BUY IN THE TEENS...hmmmmm, I wonder if there's any correlation between then and now... Guess we'll see soon enough, c'mon. Anyway, y'all have a good Thanksgiving and I'm sure we'll be talking soon.

Gobble gobble,


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