Patiently Waiting

391
Wed, Nov 21, 2012 - 10:27am

I'm expecting a big December and an historic 2013. First things first, though, as we wait out December option expiration and the concurrent "Iron Dome" capping.

So, we sit. And wait. And wait some more. Who knows, maybe your Local Coin Shop will offer some Black Friday premium discounts? If so, take him up on it. Keep stacking and accumulating as much, much fun lies ahead.

For now, it's all about capping and controlling price through December option expiration day next Tuesday. Here are the two, major forces in play:

  1. Open interest in the Dec12 call options is enormous. As "StevenBHorse" kindly pointed out for us yesterday, there are currently 61,523 open contracts between 1735 and 1800. As Ruprecht would say: That's a lot. Of particular interest to The Gold Cartel is the startling 32,537 calls at the $1800 level. I would venture a guess that most of these positions were opened back in late September as nearly everyone (including yours truly) felt assured that, with the onset of QE∞, gold would be somewhere north of $1800 by Thanksgiving. Considering that every dollar above $1800 means $3,250,000 in option payout, the October beatdown from $1795 to $1690 seems rather predictable in hindsight.
  2. Both gold and silver are currently trading above every single one of their moving averages except one...the critical 50-day. The 5-day and 10-day are important, don't get me wrong. And the 200-day will almost always provide predictable support or resistance. The 50-day, however, is the biggie. Having price above or below the 50-day is one of the major determining factors as to whether or not the momo-chasing, HFT algos will be in buy mode or sell mode. At this juncture, a move UP and through the 50-day MAs will provide the final impetus for rallies back to $35-36 in silver and $1800 in gold. As I type, the 50-day MA in the Dec12 gold contract is at $1743.30 and the 50-day in the Dec12 silver is at $33.24.

So, what happens the rest of today and Friday? Probably not much. Just more of the same. HFTs are trolling for stops to harvest on either side so we'll likely continue to see trading in a very tight range.

The only possibility for "fun" might come early next week. Recall how those who are short calls or puts are often manipulated and gamed ahead of option expiry. For next week, the most likely possibility would be a squeeze of those who are short the $1750 calls...if there are a significant amount...and it's impossible to tell. If this happens, though, we'd see a quick spike toward $1750, followed by a further rally through $1750 as those who are short the 1750 calls panic and are forced to buy a futures contract in order to hedge. After a move to $1755 or so, gold would then revert back toward $1740-45 with the sheep having been successfully shorn. The open interest at 1750 may not be sufficient enough for this happen but we'll see. Keep an eye out, anyway.

Here are two current charts. Outside of another "Swiss Stair" accumulation pattern in silver, there's not a lot going on. That will soon change.

And, finally, it's the day before the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S. This means it is once again time to reprint one of my favorite posts, "Absolute Advice For Relatives". I wrote this two years ago, right after the onset of QE2. Though we've yet to see the extreme price inflation I was expecting, there can be no argument that the advice is still solid. (I mean, seriously, have you done your Thanksgiving grocery shopping yet? Sheesh!!)

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Be sure to check back later today for a very important guest post update.

TF

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/absolute-advice-for-relatives.html

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2010
Absolute Advice For Relatives
If you're like The Turd, you will most likely get peppered tomorrow with questions from pseudo-intellectual relatives regarding the current world/market environment. Your over-educated yet under-informed cousin or brother-in-law will seek out your current "wisdom" on investing, politics, etc. He or she will then feign interest while you speak but you will feel certain that, in the end, they just don't "get it" as your absolute conviction overwhelms their status quo mindset. You could probably talk for hours about the failure of Keynesianism, Quantitative Easing, the criminal political class, the fallacy of TBTF, POMO and the PDs, the infallibility of gold, etc...but why even try? Your cousin's husband doesn't understand any of this anyway and your show of intellect will only make him feel threatened. He'll quickly tune you out and run off to the family room to watch the Cowboys.

So what do you talk about tomorrow when someone asks? What kind of simple advice can give someone to prepare them for what is certain to be a very challenging year ahead? I plan to dial it back a bit and talk about one thing...inflation. And not just any old, run-of-the mill 3% inflation but serious inflation. I'm talking 20-30% inflation. Milk to $5/gallon kind of stuff. That is what's coming and its a topic most folks can actually get their arms around. Even the fuzzy-headed new boyfriend of your divorcee sister understands inflation and he might even be able to understand why its coming if you explain it well. (This is a chance for you to show off some of your worldly knowledge, too.)

Most folks with a high school-level understanding of economics (this includes your Fed governors) only understand and recognize demand-pull inflation. This is the classic demand side, Phillips Curve inflation that says rising wages, employment and wealth cause economic expansion which leads to more money chasing a static amount of goods. New, excess demand "pulls" prices up and the result is price inflation. Pretty simple stuff. What is coming in 2011, however, is the forgotten beast of cost-push inflation. This type of price inflation is caused by producers and merchants being forced to pass along through higher prices the rising cost of inputs to their products. Consumers, particularly the lower-and-middle income, bear the brunt of the pain. Your income isn't rising to keep pace with rising expenses and you get squeezed. Hard. And its not luxury items that are going up in price, its the staples. Bread, milk, gasoline, clothes, eggs, meat...the basics that no one can realistically live without. It's going to hurt and 2011 is going to be a mean year.

Why will input costs go up? Simple, they are all dollar-dominated and with our Fed now engaging in their final policy option, "QE to Infinity", all dollar-dominated assets are going up in price. Significantly. Your crazy uncle Henry may never take your advice to sell his stocks and buy precious metals but he just might take your advice to stock up now on essentials, before the prices skyrocket. Tell him that if he's going out to buy a new pair of pants, he should buy two. Tell your sister that instead of just buying her kids' winter coats for this year, she should buy coats for next year, too. Tell your cousin that instead of buying groceries every week to, instead, buy a whole dressed-out cow and put it in the freezer along with all the other dried and canned goods she can store.

Still, most crazy relatives won't listen but at least, come next Thanksgiving, they'll remember that you were right. One down side, however. Because you'll end up being the only member of the family that will have prepared and, most likely, the only one with affordable food to eat, you'll probably have to host everyone at your house next Thanksgiving. Oh well, there's a cure for that, too. Wine. Lots and lots of wine. Keep a couple of good Pinots on reserve and you'll be able to handle just about anybody.

About the Author

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  391 Comments

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dannyhahaOrange
Nov 24, 2012 - 10:03am

Re: Debka - Netanyahu

Current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has in his office what might charitably be described as a relic and uncharitably as a kind of political fetish. It is a 2000-year-old seal in ancient Hebrew bearing the name “Netanyahu.” Here's how Mr. Netanyahu described its political significance to the European Friends of Israel in February of this year: Now people say, well, you don't really have an attachment to this land. We are new interlopers. We are neo-crusaders. If I could I would invite each of you into my office. You would see a display of antiquities from the Department of Antiquities. It's in a little stand like this. And from the place next to the Temple wall, the Western Wall, from around the time of the Jewish kings, they found a signet ring, a seal of a Jewish official from 2700 years ago, and it has a name on it in Hebrew. You know what that name is? Netanyahu. Now, that's my last name. What he didn't mention is how, precisely, Netanyahu came to be his last name. His father was not born with it, nor were any other of his identifiable ancestors. His father was born Benzion Mileikowsky in Warsaw in 1910. The Prime Minister's grandfather, Nathan Mileikowsky, was an ardent Zionist who used the name "Netanyahu" as a pen name for political writing. Sometime after moving to British mandatory Palestine, Benzion abandoned the name Mileikowsky altogether in favor of Netanyahu. It was common practice among early Zionists to dispense with European and especially Yiddish names in favor of Hebrew ones.

ivars
Nov 24, 2012 - 9:16am

Monetary basics - like this-question the interest on money !

Start with the basics- why has the usury taken over world monetary system and how it affects all we do and what can be done to avoid/counteract it when needed. 6 pages only:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/69147240/Making-Money-for-Business-Currencies-Profit-and-Long-Term-Thinking-by-B-Lietaer-and-G-Hallsmith

ivars
Nov 24, 2012 - 8:54am

GSR went down yesterday as

GSR went down yesterday as expected, reaching 51, 34, as well as silver beating 34 this week. Now, notice the accelerating speed if GSR move down as momentum is building to take it to 48-49 ( silver 39) . There will be a support ( resistance would be more proper for us interested in silver prices up) around 51- but we are not there yet. So it could be that Monday sees more buying to 34, 5 at least intraday before some pullback which as I have learned from some people there must happen on silver futures expiry day (Tuesday Nov 27th) to make more call options expiring worthless. Who knows, but might be true.

So it seems that Tuesday-Wednesday will be the right time to assess entry in building up a new silver long position, which I am definitely ready to do, and hold at least till December 7th payrolls, that have a look again.

So, a good day yesterday, confirming trend, now back to studying finance, monetary, economic and trading basics.

TheRationalist
Nov 24, 2012 - 8:51am

Liberty

The erosion of liberty is as advanced, probably far more advanced, in the UK than in the US, depending, I suppose on the areas upon which one wishes to focus. The following story is leading today in the UK Daily Telegraph, and it concerns the fate of ethnic minority foster children in the care of UKIP supporting foster parents.

UKIP for those who are unaware is the party led by Nigel Farage, virtually the only popular politician to understand the present crisis (and its roots) and UKIP is the only popular party that stands up against the tyranny that is now the EU. Needless to say, Farage and his party are becoming much more popular here in Britain, much to the annoyance of mainstream parties who consider any utterance of the truth to be evidence of extremism.

This is what's happened:

Council defends taking foster children away from UKIP members

A council has refused to back down over its decision to remove three children from their foster parents because their membership of the UK Independence Party meant that they supported “racist” policies.

The husband and wife, who have been fostering for nearly seven years, said they were made to feel like criminals when a social worker told them their views on immigration made them unsuitable carers.

The decision by Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council has provoked widespread criticism, with campaigners representing foster parents describing the decision as “ridiculous” and warning that it could deter other prospective foster parents from volunteering.

But Joyce Thacker, the council's Director of Children and Young People's Services, today said the three ethnic minority children had been placed with the couple as an emergency and the arrangement was never going to be long-term.

She told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We always try to place children in a sensible cultural placement. These children are not UK children and we were not aware of the foster parents having strong political views. T

"There are some strong views in the Ukip party and we have to think of the future of the children."

"Also the fact of the matter is I have to look at the children's cultural and ethnic needs. The children have been in care proceedings before and the judge had previously criticised us for not looking after the children's cultural and ethnic needs, and we have had to really take that into consideration with the placement that they were in."

Asked what the specific problem was with the couple being Ukip members, Mrs Thacker told the BBC: "We have to think about the clear statements on ending multi-culturalism for example.

"These children are from EU migrant backgrounds and Ukip has very clear statements on ending multiculturalism, not having that going forward, and I have to think about how sensitive I am being to those children."

She added that there was no issue about the quality of care the couple provided and said she would co-operate with any investigation.

The Labour Party, which runs Rotherham, today tried to distance itself from the council's decision.

A spokesman for the party said: "Membership of Ukip should not block parents from adopting children. There needs to be an urgent investigation by Rotherham Borough Council into this decision."

The couple, who do not want to be named to avoid identifying the children they have fostered, are in their late 50s and live in a neat detached house in a village in South Yorkshire.

The husband was a Royal Navy reservist for more than 30 years and works with disabled people, while his wife is a qualified nursery nurse.

Former Labour voters, they have been approved foster parents for nearly seven years and have looked after about a dozen different children, one of them in a placement lasting four years.

They took on the three children — a baby girl, a boy and an older girl, who were all from an ethnic minority and a troubled family background — in September in an emergency placement.

They believe that the youngsters thrived in their care. The couple were described as “exemplary” foster parents: the baby put on weight and the older girl even began calling them “mum and dad”.

However, just under eight weeks into the placement, they received a visit out of the blue from the children’s social worker at the Labour-run council and an official from their fostering agency.

They were told that the local safeguarding children team had received an anonymous tip-off that they were members of UKIP.

The wife recalled: “I was dumbfounded. Then my question to both of them was, 'What has Ukip got to do with having the children removed?’

“Then one of them said, 'Well, Ukip have got racist policies’. The implication was that we were racist. [The social worker] said Ukip does not like European people and wants them all out of the country to be returned to their own countries.

“I’m sat there and I’m thinking, 'What the hell is going off here?’ because I wouldn’t have joined Ukip if they thought that.

"I’ve got mixed race in my family. I said, 'I am absolutely offended that you could come in my house and accuse me of being a member of a racist party’.”

The wife said she told the social worker and agency official: “These kids have been loved. These kids have been treated no differently to our own children. We wouldn’t have taken these children on if we had been racist.

”The boy was taken away from them the following day and the two girls were removed at the end of that week."

The wife said the social worker told her: “We would not have placed these children with you had we known you were members of Ukip because it wouldn’t have been the right cultural match.”

The wife said she was left “bereft”, adding: “We felt like we were criminals. From having a little baby in my arms, suddenly there was an empty cot. I knew she wouldn’t have been here for ever, but usually there is a build-up of several weeks. I was in tears, although not in front of the social worker.”

Her husband added: “If we were moving the children on to happier circumstances we would be feeling warm and happy. To have it done like that, it’s beyond the pale.”

The couple said they had been “stigmatised and slandered”. They now fear they will no longer be allowed to foster again.

Nigel Farage, the leader of Ukip, described the actions of Rotherham borough council as “a bloody outrage” and “political prejudice of the very worst kind”.

UKIP was once considered a single-issue fringe party but is now part of Britain’s political mainstream, with some recent national polls putting its support as high as nine per cent.

Its manifesto includes a demand for Britain to pull out of Europe and to curb immigration. It is also critical of multiculturalism and political correctness.

The party has three peers in the House of Lords, all defectors from the Conservatives, and 12 MEPs, although it has never won a seat in the Commons. It has a candidate in next week’s by-election in Rotherham.

Mr Farage said: “I am outraged politically and very upset for them. I think this is the kind of thing where we need some sort of decree from a Government minister that Ukip is not a racist party.

“This is political prejudice of the very worst kind. It is just a bloody outrage.”

He pointed out that Ukip has a black candidate in the forthcoming Croydon North by-election.

David Goosey, the chairman of the trustees at Community Foster care, an independent fostering charity, said: “If this is accurate and there are no other extraneous matters that have concerned the authorities, then it is completely ridiculous and no self-respecting authority should be stopping people fostering on the grounds of their membership of Ukip.”

Nushra Mansuri, of the British Association of Social Workers, said: “My first question would be, does the local council have a clear equality policy so you can understand a bit more about the decision-making?

“Otherwise it’s very difficult to fathom.”

Tim Loughton, the former children’s minister, said: “I will be very concerned if decisions have been made about the children's future that were based on misguided political correctness around ethnic considerations.

"Being a supporter of a mainstream political party is not a deal-breaker when it comes to looking after children if it means they can have a loving family home.”

A spokesman for Rotherham council said last night: “After a group of sibling children were placed with agency foster carers, issues were raised regarding the long-term suitability of the carers for these particular children.

"With careful consideration, a decision was taken to move the children to alternative care. We continue to keep the situation under review.”

ENDS

If you believe that North America is the only victim of the infringement and abuse of individual liberty then think again Also be vigilant against those who would destroy civil liberty based upon their faux concern for children. As Hitler said

He alone who owns the youth gains the future.

He also said that it is

fortunate for governments that the people they administer don't think.

The internet, of which this site is a glowing representative, may change all that, but not any time soon. I'd guess that the social workers in Rotherham would still be supported by the majority of the UK populace.

Groaner
Nov 24, 2012 - 8:44am

I sure would like to know what drove the metals up.

What is it finally some short covering of the commercials or was it some determined funds adding longs?

I am sure the physical shortages have to be catching up with phony comex pricing scheme so maybe it was a bunch of shorts running for the hills. See what Harvey says today.

It could be the contract expirations motivated the shorts to get out and not roll over into the Feb.

All I can say is I think we are starting to see the trees through the forest now.

Orange
Nov 24, 2012 - 8:36am

Debka

This should light a fire under gold and silver next week.

Obama’s pledge of US troops to Sinai next week won Israel’s nod for ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire for halting the eight-day Israeli Gaza operation Wednesday night, Nov. 21, after President Barack Obama personally pledged to start deploying US troops in Egyptian Sinai next week, DEBKAfile reports. The conversation, which finally tipped the scales for a ceasefire, took place on a secure line Wednesday morning, just hours before it was announced in Cairo. The US and Israeli leaders spoke at around the time that a terrorist was blowing up a Tel Aviv bus, injuring 27 people.
Obama’s pledge addressed Israel’s most pressing demand in every negotiating forum on Gaza: Operation Pillar of Cloud’s main goal was a total stoppage of the flow of Iranian arms and missiles to the Gaza Strip. They were smuggled in from Sudan and Libya through southern Egypt and Sinai. Hostilities would continue, said the prime minister, until this object was achieved.

https://www.debka.com/article/22557/Obama’s-pledge-of-US-troops-to-Sinai-next-week-won-Israel’s-nod-for-ceasefire

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

opticsguy
Nov 24, 2012 - 8:19am

while we're waiting for the next post. Kanazawa, Japan

The name literally means "gold swamp". I had to kill a weekend about t 10 years ago and walked the city. It's pretty far from the beaten tourist path. There are numerous shops where you can watch gold leaf being made using a 500 year-old process (essentially beating the crap out of it with a rock hammer). You can get gold flakes added to just about any dish.

You can buy sheets of gold foil for various art projects. The superior conductivity of gold means better shielding than an Aluminum foil hat!

https://www.hakuza.co.jp/company/shop01.html

FleetFeet
Nov 24, 2012 - 7:59am

Dear Abby today

DEAR ABBY: I truly enjoy the "pennies from heaven" letters. I get goose bumps every time I read them. So, I want to go on record and say to everyone in heaven, I'd love to hear from each and every one of you. However, to make it clear your message is intended for me, please make it 1-ounce gold coins. - WES IN GREENFIELD, IND.

DEAR WES: I'm not sure my column appears in the hereafter, but if it does, be careful what you wish for. If gold keeps inflating, the coins could bounce right back up to heaven.

MonedasBollocks
Nov 24, 2012 - 7:51am

Nice facts on Gold !

Especially that 90% of Gold has been mined since 1849 .... for those who don't think there is enough Gold for a world monetary system .... it doesn't matter, anyway, how much there is .... adjust the price .... yes .... the natural behavior of "Real Money" is to INCREASE IN VALUE ! There will be gold backed currency and electronic money in the new world order ! Boy, have we ever been brainwashed with "Fiat Fallacies" I'm not too sure about Caesar giving EVERY soldier 200 gold coins for the "Gaul Champagne Campaign" ? What size were the coins ? How many were on the payroll ? Generals and foot soldiers got equal pay .... come on .... Monedas thinking here ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Fatwas Issued While You Wait World Tour

Bollocks
Nov 24, 2012 - 7:15am

One of those gold facts is definitely wrong..

It should read:

Fort Knox holds ZERO tonnes of gold.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods