Monday Chart Update

Mon, Nov 19, 2012 - 11:28am

Things are moving pretty fast this morning and, though I don't want to distract you from the previous two posts, I figured you might want some updated charts.

We are off to a roaring start to the week and I expect more of this to come. Tomorrow will be a regular CoT survey Tuesday and it will be either Happy or Terrible. At this point, I'd give it about a 60/40 chance of being Happy. We'll see. Things will quiet down on Wednesday but Black Friday is always interesting as the algos will rule the day and stop-hunting expeditions will likely cause quite a bit of volatility.

For now, the charts look great. Both metals have clearly bottomed at the levels we first identified about three weeks ago. The bottoms were then reinforced by the beautiful, stop-gunning plunges and subsequent reversals of two weeks ago. There can be no doubt that The Bad Guys are waging a losing fight here as paper prices have found a floor and London physical demand remains robust. Watch the clear resistance levels that I've laid out on the charts below. Once above there, both metals will head directly back toward the early October highs and the critical resistance of $1800 and $35.50. The key here is: Be not afraid. Keep stacking and prepare for an unprecedented and truly historic 2013.

Given that this is a holiday week, I suspect that many of you will be checking out later today and/or tomorrow. There are travel arrangements on the docket and friends and family that must be visited. PLEASE do not forget to stop by TFMR later this week and over the weekend, however. The markets will be volatile and I have a significant and important article that I will be posting by late Wednesday.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Big Buffalo
Nov 19, 2012 - 11:31am

Dang It!

Istack: You got me again! You rascally wabbit.

Nov 19, 2012 - 11:58am

Top three at least.

Seems TFMR is suffering some outages this morning. The flying monkeys are widening their circle perhaps?

Big Buffalo
Nov 19, 2012 - 11:58am

Our economy seems to be picking up...

more people going to the movies... and

Evidently Lincoln is doing well in theaters despite historical evidence to the contrary.
Haole Guy
Nov 19, 2012 - 11:59am

turd again?

never second or first ; ( not even third

Nov 19, 2012 - 11:59am

Who will be the farmers in 10 years?

With regards to who will be the farmers in 10 years....

I was talking to a farmer that farms more than 20,000 acres last year. He said that they have 8 guys who drive equipment and one guy who is a computer specialist.

Last weekend I spoke to a buyer for a Private Placement company that has now bought more than 25,000 acres at auction and hires local farmers to farm them. He told me that in 5 years they won't need farmers in the equipment, with gps and computers, they can have one guy in a control room monitoring 10 or more fields/equipment.

One of my best friends has a nephew that programmed a lawn mower (company) to run off GPS, a neighbor works on weather satellites, and they agreed that it would be no problem for that (guy in a control room remotely monitoring farm equipment) to be reality.

On another note, Saturday AM, I traded 1.25 ounces of lead for about 90 LB's of processed venison. (8 pt. buck, about 200 lbs on the hoof)

Nov 19, 2012 - 11:59am

Silver through $33

on the way to $40+

I'd be thankful for that!

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:02pm


I have a pep in my step to begin this week. Go silver!!!

smiling is actually good for your health (i googled it)

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:03pm

Thank You

Mr. T

Dr G
Nov 19, 2012 - 12:03pm

Lincoln, one of the worst

Lincoln, one of the worst presidents the country has even known, yet we parade him around like he is top-notch. Makes me ill.

I'd expect both metals to get shafted later this week with light volume during the holidays. Makes it easier to commit crime.

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:32pm

Turd, you keep disappearing..

from the global interweb thingy. Is this foul play?

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:36pm
Colonel Angus
Nov 19, 2012 - 12:40pm

Lincoln and Andrew Jackson

One of my friends subjects his kid to the public school. The kid came home one day telling his daddy that he had learned that Andrew Jackson was the worst president in history. I'm sure the same kid learned how great Lincoln was.

War is Peace, etc. etc. etc.

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:48pm

Finally got through

web site seems to have gone down. Glad you're back up.

The year is almost over and I had predicted a paper/physical price bifurcation. No worries though. The forces just seem to keep building and I think at some point they'll be released and it will be like an earthquake: suddenly relieving years built up pressure.

Great article on Basel III and gold on SA.

Of course, his conclusion to buy a gold ETF is misplaced.

If Basel III is, in fact, implemented I'm wondering if retail banks will eventually allow gold based collatoralized loans, ie mortgage and consumer loans. I'd be keen on keeping my gold and pledging it as collateral for a new home loan (as long as I didn't have to risk it being hypothecated).

The Watchman
Nov 19, 2012 - 12:49pm

Blythes Monkey is NOT HAPPY

The 'Big 4' bullion banks are short 251.5 million ounces of silver which, on a net basis, represents 44.0% of the entire Comex futures market in silver.

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:49pm

up moves

33.00 cap failed after 5 taps, 33.08 cap failed after 3 taps, more taps/tops, 33.10 33.13 33.16 33.17 like upward stabs of anti-aircraft, knocking out overhead bombers. this is great action. MELT UP now in the cards, with 2 caps failing and 4 more tops. Thus, buyers over came 2 caps level, and are pushing strong to the upside, holy crap batman, the buyers are running over the cartel, like road kill today, indicating a MELT UP is immanent. Keeping legs crossed in Laguna Beach California

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:52pm

BIS and Gold redux:

I left out the beginning of the article by mistake, and am shamelessly reposting. This was written in 1930, just before the BIS opened. I am not sure by whom, exactly, but it struck me as quite interesting:

Evolution of the Gold Standard Since 1913

The Bank for International Settlements, organized by the central banks of the principal European countries and by unofficial representatives of the United States, is scheduled to open its doors at Basel, Switzerland, on or about May 1,1930. The final agreement for establishment of the bank signed at The Hague, January 20, 1930, was ratified by Germany on March 12 and by France on April 5, 1930, A sufficient number of ratifications by other leading powers to permit the bank to open for business early in May is expected before the close of the present month.

While the Bank for International Settlements originated as a part of the Young plan, with the primary purpose of facilitating the transfer of reparation payments from Germany to her creditors, in substitute for the Transfer Agent of the Dawes plan, its significance is by no means confined to the reparation problem. It is apparently intended to function as a bank for all kinds of international settlements and as such cannot but have an important influence on financial relationships among all nations. In a sense, the creation of this new institution represents a final step in the long and arduous process by which the world has been reëstablishing the gold standard as the monetary basis of its economy, or, more accurately, establishing a new gold standard. For the gold standard as it functions under current conditions differs widely from that of pre-war days, and involves many new problems that can be best worked out through some kind of international coöperation. The conscious policy of governments and central banks has been substituted in many respects for the automatic working of the free gold market, and the machinery of an international banking institution is consequently of great importance to the success of this new method of control.

Document Citation
Riefler, D. (1930). The International Bank and the gold standard. Editorial research reports 1930 (Vol. II). Washington, DC: CQ Press. Retrieved from

I wonder why "unofficial representatives", but note the final sentence of the second paragraph:

"the conscious policy of governments and central banks have been substituted ... for the automatic working of the free gold market, and the machinery of an international banking institution is consequently of great importance the success of this new method of control."

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:52pm


Sorry for the outages. 

We are attempting to make some server improvements and having a few issues.

thank you for your patience.

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:54pm

you bet

Off to the races???

Submitted by Grublux

may be, nice graph, kind of puts it right there in your face.

ROAD KILL is mighty tasty on monday morns!!!!

Nov 19, 2012 - 12:55pm

I Have Also Had Issues Getting On The Site

This is what popped up:

The most likely causes:

  • The server is down for maintenance
  • There may be a network problem
  • The site may be experiencing excessive load

Edit: Thank you for the information Mr.F!

القراع عصفور
Nov 19, 2012 - 12:59pm


that the "outages" today are because Turdtown just became a popular spot to get some real honest commentary and news! me also thinks that Turd needs to buy/lease a few more servers, and he might be having a cash flow problem:-) oh, me thinks it was my last purchase of silver, that was the proverbial straw that broke BM's back. hmmmn - i like that pun, a lot:-)


edit: get some terabyte servers. a few hundred or so ought to be just enough!!!

se ya in hell, BM!

Nov 19, 2012 - 1:01pm

send in the clowns

they want 91%, click through to really get your blood pressure up


Just A Regular Guy
Nov 19, 2012 - 1:05pm

Jim Rickards Tweet

Apologies for being retarded and not-able to retweet etc. I'll quote verbatim:

" moves to include AUD & CAD on the official list of "reserve currencies" . Another nail to the heart for the dollar"

Just A Regular Guy
Nov 19, 2012 - 1:06pm

Site downtime

100% Turd's site is being hacked with regard to Israel v Gaza et. al. shenanigans wink

Nice discussions last week about metals and other stuff. Great article by SRSRocco! I guess the only thing that will change our current situation is a "new" form of portable/cheaper energy or recycling of metals @ an acceptable cost. Been listening to some interesting stuff over the last few days on ut00b and other places on the interwebs. Jim Rickards made a great point somewhere about how the Fed wants people to spend, but are actually forcing more people to be frugal... He was elaborating on market /money psychology

Nice action in Au/Ag! Great start to the week.


Nov 19, 2012 - 1:06pm

33.16 wont stand

Let call it 3 taps at 33.16. Man this is great action .... looking to pop again .... me thinks also. the action is too strong for a sake out today ... me thinks ...

yeah, turd needs to upgrade the banana republic trudville and replace that banana seat shwinn with a ten speed.

Nov 19, 2012 - 1:07pm

As mentioned in last thread:

As mentioned in last thread: tomorrow the (substantial, at least for silver) margin decreases on the COMEX go into effect. So, some more small specs are being lured into what is already the highest OI YTD. Poor suckers.

Nov 19, 2012 - 1:12pm


seems to be doing some upgrading as well...they often upgrade on gold's "up" days. I wonder why? That gold maple I bought a couple weeks ago for 1706$ is looking extra shiny today. Best wishes to all Turdites!!! Thanks Turd and Thanks SRS also! Good work...Well done!

القراع عصفور
Nov 19, 2012 - 1:13pm

maybe, maybe not

the war ain't over yet. why dontcha click over there on the side of this page, and buy a chunk of "white"metal. those masochist small specs could use the wind on their backs. what ever their intentions, they are our friends:-)

Just A Regular Guy
Nov 19, 2012 - 1:19pm

No, it's not

Even if you're joking, please don't post crazy stuff like that.

Server maintenance and upgrade. That's all it is.

Nov 19, 2012 - 1:22pm


I wanted to post this here as well. I have had requests for a PDF copy of the guest post THE FORCES THAT WILL PUSH SILVER OVER $100.

If you would like a copy, please email me at: SRSrocco[at]gmail[dot]com

Nov 19, 2012 - 1:24pm


Is folding

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
1/24 10:00 ET Leading Econ Indicators
1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
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1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
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Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
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1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
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