Friday Open Thread

Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - 9:08am

I'm going to be out and unavailable for most of the day. Here's an open thread for you but, as usual, please try to keep the conversation civil and productive.

Just a couple of things...

In case you missed it, here's a reprint of the "update" I posted to the previous thread. Nothing earth-shattering and certainly not meant to scare you, just a heads up:

5:00 pm EST 11/15/12 UPDATE:

The metals have continued to slowly improve this afternoon from the savage beating they took this morning. This is quite positive for us Good Guys. However, I feel obligated to draw your attention to something that has me concerned.

Did you see this ZH article earlier today? This "dedicated seller" thing set off some alarm bells for me as it reminded me of the period back in late September and early October when we were all similarly flummoxed by a Cartel "Iron Dome" near $1780 in gold and $35 in silver. I wrote about in several posts but summarized the problem on this post from Thursday, October 4:

Here's the problem...That week of desperate, regular Cartel capping culminated with things breaking down on October 5 and the metals have been under consistent pressure ever since. Of course, past isn't always prologue and history doesn't always repeat, but I'm the one who is paid to recognize patterns and this is clearly one we must keep watching. The main level on which to concentrate would seem to be $1705 in gold. A break there and it will become likely that gold sees at least a re-test of the lows of 11/5, near $1670-1680.

This is no reason to be scared, just cautious. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

And you have missed this, too. I certainly did. The Comex has decided to lower initial gold and silver margins again, effective at the close next Tuesday. It's a pretty significant drop, too, with the gold initial margin declining from $9,113 to $7,425 or 18.5%. The silver initial margin was reset to $12,100 from $16,875 for a drop of over 28%. Very interesting move given the recent volatility and high open interest, especially in silver. Here are the rest of the details:

OK, that's all the time I have for now. I'll type up and post a full weekly recap tomorrow morning so please be sure to check back over the weekend. As for today, hang in there, keep the faith and buy some physical.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dr G
Nov 16, 2012 - 11:16am

Chart from the updated ZH

Chart from the updated ZH story. 4 days in a row. We should note that despite these multi-day sell offs, gold is down approximately $20 and silver down only 60 cents from the highs of these past 4 days.

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:23am

On CCs and adult kids

Thanks for the comments AG1969 & Wizard.

Its nice to know that others think the same way you do on big decisions. I have also wondered how the conversion of metal into land/homes etc for the long haul will work out. I'd be tempted to pay off a home if the dollar is still sound and metals finally shoot up. After the collapse, who knows? we may have to just leave them at the bottom of that nearby creek for a few years.

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:24am

Re: Wal-mart Black Friday Strike threat

It won't matter, until the general populous stops spending money there, the Waltons will continue to use the system to their advantage, strike or no strike.

We the people need to boycott them, but that will never happen.

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:34am

The real deal

Metal flat on the day, silver holding 32.50, gold in striking range of 1800 lift off, and yet today was an big up dollar day on the dollar index, suggesting break away action in the PM, and with silver holding firm, its the real deal.

I hope ....

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:36am

Hostess Closing it's Doors

The inflation caused by money-printing & currency manipulation is going to push even more folks out of their jobs.

If you are a Trader, then forget ETF’s, forget ‘Paper,’ and start stacking Twinkies to re-sell and triple your investment!

Hostess, maker of Twinkies, to go out of business; strike cited
- - - - - -
Now – before you fly off the handle and start bashing the unions, consider this:
- - - - - -
The company cited increasing pension and medical costs for employees as one of the drivers behind its latest filing.”
- - - - - -
And also consider the following as well:
- - - - - -
The union said in a statement that Hostess made unreasonable demands, including wage and benefit cuts of around 30% for workers, while top executives of the company received large pay increases. Wedrick Hollingsworth, business agent for Local 372-B of the bakers union, said union members took wage and benefit concessions four years ago and are unwilling to accept further wage cuts and reductions in health and pension benefits sought by the company.

Too many people are always ready to bash the unions, which plays right into the hands of the Corporate Masters. So if you are upset because they are taking away your Ding-Dong, blame the corporations and the politicians who are bought & paid for by them, not the union.

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:40am


I'd thumb that down if I could. Racial sterotyping and propoganda is not a good look.

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:42am

Actually I think, taking into

Actually I think, taking into account at what levels the USDX is currently, I think the PMs are looking stellar.

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:44am

Say what?...No more Twinkies?!?...

Yup!...Time to stock up on other favourites!!!...

Chicken, Watermelon, Kool Aid! Say what?!

Bag Of Gold

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:48am

Dollar to finish rally?

Several TA commentators have said 81.50 is resistance on dollar index. We're virtually there now.

Maybe next week will be better for PMs?

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:48am

Hey Expired

This is real yours is a cartoon. This is a t shirt worn by the IDF.

Some real funny stuff!! Haha hilarious. Nudnik.

Nov 16, 2012 - 11:50am

looking a little more bullish

looking a little more bullish for pms now @$1712, holding this line means a test of $1715


Nov 16, 2012 - 11:55am
Nov 16, 2012 - 12:02pm

looking a little more bullish

Well done Hawk.

Back in ze black. This time I am taking the wedge of paper offered.

Still think headed for massive rally. That takedown would have got the Easters in a real spending spree imho!

Nov 16, 2012 - 12:04pm

More fuel for WTI....

The U.S. Coast Guard in New Orleans confirms that a fire has erupted in a Gulf oil rig off the Louisiana coast, KHOU-TV reported. The Houston TV station said an early report indicated that two people are dead and two are missing in fire. Four people were sent to the hospital, according to a company spokesman, KHOU reported. There were no initial reports of oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico from the fire. A company spokesman said four people had been sent to the hospital, the TV station reported. A spokesman says the Coast Guard had activated a “command center” to investigate the incident. WWL-TV reported that the offshore platform is located in the West Delta Block 32 off the coast, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

Nov 16, 2012 - 12:05pm

@ Dryocopus P.


Nov 16, 2012 - 12:05pm
Nov 16, 2012 - 12:06pm

Crazy market reaction...

...based all on the meaningless words of our elected 'leaders' about how they'll kick their responsibility further down the road.

What a messed up algo driven market and managed MSM world we live in.

A 100 point movement within 15 minutes based on empty words from empty suits asleep at the helm.

The Watchman
Nov 16, 2012 - 12:12pm
Nov 16, 2012 - 12:13pm

Silver antelopes.

I have enjoyed buying the silver that Universal coin and bullion puts in the one page ad in my NRA magazines that come once a month. I have only ever found any value in the bullion products they offer, ASE or various Canadian wild life coins. My (3) three yes, that is the limit when you order through the magazine silver antelopes came today and they look very nice. It is as nice as the others in the series (and way better than the cougar, that one was pretty bad or the worst of them all). They once had 1/10 oz gold pieces that I bought too. The other items are over-priced, certified Morgans or Peace dollars with super high premiums. Then you will also get random phone calls from some crazy Texan who only wants to sell you graded gold items that are about 50%+ over spot, not my cup of tea.

Go buy some junk silver this weekend from your LCS. I cleaned mine out of dimes all except about 6 or 7 barber dimes which I hate because they always seem to weigh less that the others. Stack a roll of barber dimes in a clear tube next to mercs or rosies, the difference is obvious to even Helen Keller. Cleaning him out felt damn good too, to take every dime he had in junk in the whole store.

Happy Weekend. go buy some local phyz!

Nov 16, 2012 - 12:13pm


are owned by a private equity firm that is just playing hardball in the bankruptcy game (this is the 2nd). Screw 'em.

Mr. Fix
Nov 16, 2012 - 12:38pm
Nov 16, 2012 - 12:38pm

Go on my beauty...more signalling from silver

Go on smash that HFT barsteward

Nov 16, 2012 - 1:01pm

Mr Fix...

you crack me up with those pics. The QE twinkie... same principle.. filled with artificial crap.

Nov 16, 2012 - 1:04pm

@WB7 - pics &software

Would you mind telling me what software you are using WB7? Need to make some posters for kid's school.!

Nov 16, 2012 - 1:05pm

Santa: "all hell is about to break loose..."

Dead right it is.

My partner just called to say she's spent £300 on a pair of shoes!

The Watchman
Nov 16, 2012 - 1:13pm

From Ted Butler

"My second reaction is different. I’m appalled that the CFTC and the CME Group have not dealt with this matter in a forthright and aboveboard manner. Concentration is an incredibly specific issue and JPMorgan holds a manipulative share of the COMEX silver market, currently over 32% on the short side. The Hunt Brothers were judged guilty of manipulating the silver market for holding a 20% share in 1980. Had there ever been a single participant that held 32% of the long side of COMEX silver since 1980, it is a certainty that the CFTC and the CME would not have rested until that position was eliminated. Yet for more than 4 years, the CFTC has only pretended to investigate while JPMorgan manipulated the silver market continuously." - Silver analyst Ted Butler...14 November 2012

Desert Fox porkydawky
Nov 16, 2012 - 1:21pm

Light Humor

Overheard at school in Sacramento California,,,,,,,,,,,

The teacher said, "Let's begin by reviewing some American History. Who said 'Give me Liberty , or give me Death'?"

She saw a sea of blank faces, except for Little Akio, a bright foreign exchange student from Japan , who had his hand up: "Patrick Henry, 1775," he said.

"Very good! -- Who said, 'Government of the People, by the People, for the People, shall not perish from the Earth'?"

Again, no response except from Little Akio: "Abraham Lincoln, 1863."

"Excellent!" said the teacher continuing, "Let's try one a bit more difficult -- Who said, 'Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country'?"

Once again, Akio's was the only hand in the air and he said: "John F. Kennedy, 1961."

The teacher snapped at the class, "Class, you should be ashamed of yourselves, Little Akio isn't from this country and he knows more about our history than you do."

She heard a loud whisper: "**** the Japs."

"Who said that? -- I want to know right now!? she angrily demanded.

Little Akio put his hand up, "General MacArthur, 1945."

At that point, a student in the back said, "I'm gonna puke.'

The teacher glares around and asks, 'All right! -- Now who said that?"

Again, Little Akio says, "George Bush to the Japanese Prime Minister, 1991."

Now furious, another student yells, "Oh yeah? -- Suck this!"
Little Akio jumps out of his chair waving his hand and shouts to the teacher, "Bill Clinton, to Monica Lewinsky, 1997!"

Now with almost mob hysteria someone said, "You little ****! -- If you say anything else -- I'll kill you!"

Little Akio frantically yells at the top of his voice, "Michael Jackson to the children testifying against him, 2004."

The teacher fainted. As the class gathered around the teacher on the floor, someone said, "Oh ****, We're screwed!"

Little Akio said quietly, "The American people, November 6, 2012."

Nov 16, 2012 - 1:23pm

twinkies, sheeple, instinctual reaction to markets

(Caught a blurb about people selling twinkies on ebay...)

By now the vast majority of the land is aware of the demise of Hostess, and thereby the twinkie.

People that consume the twinkie realize that if they want more, they must act quickly to secure their future supply.

Those with business accumen recognize this is a golden opportunity to make a quick buck.

Is it just the people that are awake that can instinctually see how a situation like this will develop and profit? Do some people truly fail to understand something as simple as a company going under means a cessation of the product? I think virtually every adult understands this concept.

If we want to see silver take go on a moonshot we have to distill our message into a concept this simple.

Nov 16, 2012 - 1:27pm
obiwan rpboxster
Nov 16, 2012 - 1:27pm


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
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4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
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Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

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3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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