Friday Open Thread

289
Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - 9:08am

I'm going to be out and unavailable for most of the day. Here's an open thread for you but, as usual, please try to keep the conversation civil and productive.

Just a couple of things...

In case you missed it, here's a reprint of the "update" I posted to the previous thread. Nothing earth-shattering and certainly not meant to scare you, just a heads up:

5:00 pm EST 11/15/12 UPDATE:

The metals have continued to slowly improve this afternoon from the savage beating they took this morning. This is quite positive for us Good Guys. However, I feel obligated to draw your attention to something that has me concerned.

Did you see this ZH article earlier today? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-15/gold-tumbles-same-dedicated-seller-reemerges. This "dedicated seller" thing set off some alarm bells for me as it reminded me of the period back in late September and early October when we were all similarly flummoxed by a Cartel "Iron Dome" near $1780 in gold and $35 in silver. I wrote about in several posts but summarized the problem on this post from Thursday, October 4: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4239/deja-vuall-over-again.

Here's the problem...That week of desperate, regular Cartel capping culminated with things breaking down on October 5 and the metals have been under consistent pressure ever since. Of course, past isn't always prologue and history doesn't always repeat, but I'm the one who is paid to recognize patterns and this is clearly one we must keep watching. The main level on which to concentrate would seem to be $1705 in gold. A break there and it will become likely that gold sees at least a re-test of the lows of 11/5, near $1670-1680.

This is no reason to be scared, just cautious. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

And you have missed this, too. I certainly did. The Comex has decided to lower initial gold and silver margins again, effective at the close next Tuesday. It's a pretty significant drop, too, with the gold initial margin declining from $9,113 to $7,425 or 18.5%. The silver initial margin was reset to $12,100 from $16,875 for a drop of over 28%. Very interesting move given the recent volatility and high open interest, especially in silver. Here are the rest of the details: https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/15/cme-margins-idUSL3E8MF6LY20121115

OK, that's all the time I have for now. I'll type up and post a full weekly recap tomorrow morning so please be sure to check back over the weekend. As for today, hang in there, keep the faith and buy some physical.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  289 Comments

¤
Nov 16, 2012 - 9:47am

Seems significant and only the beginning

Nov. 16, 2012, 9:00 a.m. EST

Foreign net sales of Treasurys hit record in Sept.

By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Foreign investors were net sellers of $18.3 billion of Treasurys in September, the largest amount on record, Treasury Department data released Friday showed.

Overall, foreign investors bought a net $17.9 billion of long-term U.S. securities in September, down sharply from the $78.5 billion purchased in the prior month.

This includes Treasurys, mortgage-related bonds, corporate bonds and equities. According to the data, China-based investors slightly increased their holdings of U.S. Treasurys in the month. Foreigners made net purchases of $23.4 billion of U.S. equities in September, up from $6.1 billion in the prior month.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreign-net-sales-of-treasurys-hit-rec...

Mantis
Nov 16, 2012 - 9:47am

the little fish

Hawk, I'm not sure why but reading your post reminds me of this.

HD: Bait Ball Feast - Nature's Great Events: The Great Feast - BBC One

AS a species if we didnt' herd so much we wouldn't have these problems. Look what happens to the little fish when you just follow the others.

Nana
Nov 16, 2012 - 9:48am

Export grain prices soar as US shippers fear Mississippi closure

https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/15/usa-grains-barges-idUSL1E8MFH...

Export grain prices soar as US shippers fear Mississippi closure

* Corn basis jumps to 4-mth peak, soy to 2-1/2 mth high

* Exporters scramble for spot shipments as river recedes

* Mississippi River may close from St. Louis to Cairo, IL

By Karl Plume

Nov 15 (Reuters) - The possible closure of the Mississippi River to navigation because of low water has sent prices soaring for grain destined for export from the Gulf of Mexico, grain traders said.

Water levels on the busy stretch of the river from St. Louis to Cairo, Illinois, are forecast to drop to 9 feet or less by early December as drought conservation measures have reduced the flow of water from the Missouri River and its reservoir system into the Mississippi River.

The threat that river shipments could be halted or slowed had exporters this week raising bids for grain to quickly get it to Gulf export points..............

SilverSurfers
Nov 16, 2012 - 9:53am

wat?

are we still over 32.50??? :)

Urban RomanGreen Lantern
Nov 16, 2012 - 9:54am

If Unions do This,

Pin a star on them! I am pretty sure I haven't eaten a Twinkie in more than a decade, those things are toxic!

Too bad the unions can't put JPM out of business, eh.

Re: Out of Business

rl999
Nov 16, 2012 - 9:54am

Metals order

and on topic..I will complete my first and last order with libertyCPM today.

I ordered a 10 ozt dragon bar on 24 oct.

1st issue: I told the rep I would be sending a postal money order, but never got an email confirming my order. Called back a few hours later, and learned it was because he had typed my email address incorrectly (yahooo .com) (I also had an issue with being forced to deal with the CA store vice the AZ store. One of the few ways us useless eaters can vote is with our wallets, and I steadfastly refuse to support CA.)

2nd issue: I was not told the item was out of stock or unavailable, I learned this from the email after I paid and the funds cleared, it said "release date 11/11"

3rd issue: I got a call on tuesday, and somehow my po box and my zip code had been entered as the same number

4th issue: $16.30 for shipping...really?! They may have the best prices, but that destroys any difference between them and provident.

I am trying to find more LCS, but the sales tax is not helpful.

¤
Nov 16, 2012 - 9:58am
Green Lantern
Nov 16, 2012 - 10:02am

@rpboxster

what a lazy, dip shit. And her boss for telling her to have UPS redeliver and not walking it over like a human being. if that happened. Whatever happened to neighbors looking out for neighbors? Give the receptionist a box of ding dongs for XMas. The consciousness of humanity boggles the mind.

GroanerSilverSurfers
Nov 16, 2012 - 10:04am

I dont think they will let

I dont think they will let silver close over $32.50.. I wonder why?? free markets..

Nana
Nov 16, 2012 - 10:06am

Should Be Silver and Gold UNDER EVERY Christmas Tree

Funny how the main colors are silver and gold yet people miss the whole point......

Silver & Gold

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Forum Discussion

by goldcom, 1 hour 44 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, Jan 28, 2020 - 6:06pm
by Turd Ferguson, Jan 28, 2020 - 6:05pm
by NUGTCALL, Jan 28, 2020 - 5:16pm
by tonym9, Jan 28, 2020 - 1:13pm