Friday Open Thread

289
Fri, Nov 16, 2012 - 9:08am

I'm going to be out and unavailable for most of the day. Here's an open thread for you but, as usual, please try to keep the conversation civil and productive.

Just a couple of things...

In case you missed it, here's a reprint of the "update" I posted to the previous thread. Nothing earth-shattering and certainly not meant to scare you, just a heads up:

5:00 pm EST 11/15/12 UPDATE:

The metals have continued to slowly improve this afternoon from the savage beating they took this morning. This is quite positive for us Good Guys. However, I feel obligated to draw your attention to something that has me concerned.

Did you see this ZH article earlier today? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-15/gold-tumbles-same-dedicated-seller-reemerges. This "dedicated seller" thing set off some alarm bells for me as it reminded me of the period back in late September and early October when we were all similarly flummoxed by a Cartel "Iron Dome" near $1780 in gold and $35 in silver. I wrote about in several posts but summarized the problem on this post from Thursday, October 4: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4239/deja-vuall-over-again.

Here's the problem...That week of desperate, regular Cartel capping culminated with things breaking down on October 5 and the metals have been under consistent pressure ever since. Of course, past isn't always prologue and history doesn't always repeat, but I'm the one who is paid to recognize patterns and this is clearly one we must keep watching. The main level on which to concentrate would seem to be $1705 in gold. A break there and it will become likely that gold sees at least a re-test of the lows of 11/5, near $1670-1680.

This is no reason to be scared, just cautious. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

And you have missed this, too. I certainly did. The Comex has decided to lower initial gold and silver margins again, effective at the close next Tuesday. It's a pretty significant drop, too, with the gold initial margin declining from $9,113 to $7,425 or 18.5%. The silver initial margin was reset to $12,100 from $16,875 for a drop of over 28%. Very interesting move given the recent volatility and high open interest, especially in silver. Here are the rest of the details: https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/15/cme-margins-idUSL3E8MF6LY20121115

OK, that's all the time I have for now. I'll type up and post a full weekly recap tomorrow morning so please be sure to check back over the weekend. As for today, hang in there, keep the faith and buy some physical.

TF

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Monedas
Nov 17, 2012 - 12:10pm

Skippy Dog Food !

As a kid in the early '50s (I remember the LA Times front page picture of the H Bomb) .... I remember our yellow cans of Skippy dog food ! On the label was a picture of "Skippy the dog" posing with a can of the same Skippy dog food .... on the label of that little can was another label .... etc. .... ad infinitum ! It reminds me that Israel is that little can on the label .... and Gaza is the little can inside that can .... are you following me ? My conclusion is that tiny Israel is the "Gaza Strip" inside the Muslim universe .... and Gaza is the "Gaza Strip" inside of Israel ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Monedian Logic Explained In PMI (Plain Monedian English) World Tour

rl999
Nov 17, 2012 - 12:08pm

Keiser report talks about JPM + HEH

The guest (starts at roughly 13:10) talks a fair bit about JPmorgue, and (starting roughly 20) talks about a possible congruence of events that we all know and love, HEH. (First half is strictly London/UK stuff, and he's a little fired up.)

My interpretation is that there are so many lawsuits filed against them eventually they are going to take a big hit, and then get destroyed by all the pilers-on, and other related suits.

Keiser Report: Cameron's Sin City Surge (E367)

2:40-3:15... JPM silver short two years ago = 8.4bn, today = 18.5bn$

Silver is up 30% since crash JPM, buy silver, launched

Anonymous
Nov 17, 2012 - 11:45am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

57Goldtop
Nov 17, 2012 - 11:39am

Windows 8

I upgraded my Win7 laptop to Win8 last week only to find out that HP does not intend to release sound drivers for it. The pre-scan didn't pop up and say, "yo dude if you put windows 8 on here you'll never have sound."

I got a refund immediately and couldn't believe how efficiently MSFT processed it.

This led me to rebuild the laptop to its out-of-the-box Win7 configuration, so it's very much like having a new box anyway.

The entire time, my brain had this image of a fat, profane man with elbow-pit sweat growling in my ear, "Sucka!".

ivars
Nov 17, 2012 - 11:27am

Economist on Norman Wiener

Economist on Norman Wiener prediction I mentioned earlier- the grandfather of this site- Keynes ( I understand he is not so much responsible for what is today understood as Keynesian experiment- as it started with CBs and governments long before him and moved into self destroying stage long after him) :

https://gutenberg.ca/ebooks/keynes-essaysinpersuasion/keynes-essaysinpersuasion-00-h.html

Keynes, Essays in Persuasion,"Economic possibilities for our Grandchildren", 1930 wrote:
Let us, for the sake of argument, suppose that a hundred years hence we are all of us, on the average, eight times better off in the economic sense than we are to-day. Assuredly there need be nothing here to surprise us.

Now it is true that the needs of human beings may seem to be insatiable. But they fall into two classes—those needs which are absolute in the sense that we feel them whatever the situation of our fellow human beings may be, and those which are relative in the sense that we feel them only if their satisfaction lifts us above, makes us feel superior to, our fellows. Needs of the second class, those which satisfy the desire for superiority, may indeed be insatiable; for the higher the general level, the higher still are they. But this is not so true of the absolute needs—a point may soon be reached, much sooner perhaps than we are all of us aware of, when these needs are satisfied in the sense that we prefer to devote our further energies to non-economic purposes.

Now for my conclusion, which you will find, I think, to become more and more startling to the imagination the longer you think about it.

I draw the conclusion that, assuming no important wars and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or be at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years. This means that the economic problem is not—if we look into the future—the permanent problem of the human race.

Why, you may ask, is this so startling? It is startling because—if, instead of looking into the future, we look into the past—we find that the economic problem, the struggle for subsistence, always has been hitherto the primary, most pressing problem of the human race—not only of the human race, but of the whole of the biological kingdom from the beginnings of life in its most primitive forms.

Thus we have been expressly evolved by nature—with all our impulses and deepest instincts—for the purpose of solving the economic problem. If the economic problem is solved, mankind will be deprived of its traditional purpose.

Will this be a benefit? If one believes at all in the real values of life, the prospect at least opens up the possibility of benefit. Yet I think with dread of the readjustment of the habits and instincts of the ordinary man, bred into him for countless generations, which he may be asked to discard within a few decades.

To use the language of to-day—must we not expect a general "nervous breakdown"? We already have a little experience of what I mean—a nervous breakdown of the sort which is already common enough in England and the United States amongst the wives of the well-to-do classes, unfortunate women, many of them, who have been deprived by their wealth of their traditional tasks and occupations—who cannot find it sufficiently amusing, when deprived of the spur of economic necessity, to cook and clean and mend, yet are quite unable to find anything more amusing.

Continued:

Quote:

Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem—how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.

The strenuous purposeful money-makers may carry all of us along with them into the lap of economic abundance. But it will be those peoples, who can keep alive, and cultivate into a fuller perfection, the art of life itself and do not sell themselves for the means of life, who will be able to enjoy the abundance when it comes.

Yet there is no country and no people, I think, who can look forward to the age of leisure and of abundance without a dread. For we have been trained too long to strive and not to enjoy. It is a fearful problem for the ordinary person, with no special talents, to occupy himself, especially if he no longer has roots in the soil or in custom or in the beloved conventions of a traditional society. To judge from the behaviour and the achievements of the wealthy classes to-day in any quarter of the world, the outlook is very depressing! For these are, so to speak, our advance guard—those who are spying out the promised land for the rest of us and pitching their camp there. For they have most of them failed disastrously, so it seems to me—those who have an independent income but no associations or duties or ties—to solve the problem which has been set them.

The structural unemployment is very near, and if its driven by productivity and efficiency it has no benefit for a person who is out of work several times during his life time due to the reason that his profession has become obsolete every 10 years as the speed of change increases, and mobility is constrained- besides, culture does not change in 10 years, do moving from the USA to Bangladesh just to be able to continue laying concrete sounds not quite like a fulfillment of ones aims- disregarding even the fact that there are perhaps 50 million unemployed concrete layers in Bangladesh.

This type of too fast progress and productivity increases is driven by needs to accumulate capital in the cutthroat competition amplified or even caused by Central banking , compounding interest rates, and centralization and scarcity of money. Relative scarcity, of course, as its increase has been much too fast over last 300 years, but we are where we are.

So, continuing on this path and arguing that the strongest survives is not any more the same beneficial to everyone capitalism that drove development for the last 60 years.. - it is getting too fast and will crash. May be its crashing already. Applying more of the same can not cure it.

That is kind of clear. The wealth creation has been too fast, and on debt money with interest- too efficient to pay also for accumulated interest, which , by various estimates, makes up to 1/3 of final cost of any consumption good. Now its time to change the system , change the principle of efficiency to something more sustainable and human. Or animal, as animals know that driving the ecosystem into overdrive by predators leads to extinguishing of predators themselves as they destroy their food chain.

So, as non-economist I state that having efficiency and productivity increases as ultimate goals in Centralized global monetary system with debt money and interest is plain wrong. It adds to better life of few with more and more disastrous life for many, and system is collapsing, together with its monetary foundation, its ERP (OS) - that processes information of economy and everything else - financial markets and CBs. Not capitalism, but what governs the world now- financial oligarchy? What is the right name? CPU might be outdated as well.

The change needs to be done in the ERP (OS) of human civilization, its economy part which by now covers almost everything, its has wrong processes and wrong targets.

The development which happens now clearly shows things are on wrong footing, but what are the alternatives and how to initiate them without going to WWIII? There is just about 25-35 years of time.

Keynes wrote:

If capital increases, say, 2 per cent per annum, the capital equipment of the world will have increased by a half in twenty years, and seven and a half times in a hundred years. Think of this in terms of material things—houses, transport, and the like.

At the same time technical improvements in manufacture and transport have been proceeding at a greater rate in the last ten years than ever before in history. In the United States factory output per head was 40 per cent greater in 1925 than in 1919. In Europe we are held back by temporary obstacles, but even so it is safe to say that technical efficiency is increasing by more than 1 per cent per annum compound. There is evidence that the revolutionary technical changes, which have so far chiefly affected industry, may soon be attacking agriculture. We may be on the eve of improvements in the efficiency of food production as great as those which have already taken place in mining, manufacture, and transport. In quite a few years—in our own lifetimes I mean—we may be able to perform all the operations of agriculture, mining, and manufacture with a quarter of the human effort to which we have been accustomed.

For the moment the very rapidity of these changes is hurting us and bringing difficult problems to solve. Those countries are suffering relatively which are not in the vanguard of progress. We are being afflicted with a new disease of which some readers may not yet have heard the name, but of which they will hear a great deal in the years to come—namely, technological unemployment. This means unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.

But this is only a temporary phase of maladjustment. All this means in the long run that mankind is solving its economic problem. I would predict that the standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence will be between four and eight times as high as it is to-day. There would be nothing surprising in this even in the light of our present knowledge. It would not be foolish to contemplate the possibility of a far greater progress still.

4406PACK
Nov 17, 2012 - 11:25am
Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

paisan
Nov 17, 2012 - 11:14am

Windows 8

I worked for Microsoft for 5 years. A bunch of former co-workers and I have switched to 100% Apple for our personal use. Of course we all still make money helping people try to figure out their Windows systems and make them work.

The man who stole a leopard
Nov 17, 2012 - 11:07am

Before you buy your next laptop

@ Admiral -- sorry to hear about your experience, I had the opportunity to test-drive Windows 8 for work and told IT that I have zero interest in upgrading.

---

All -- before buying your next computer, consider the Windows 8 user experience...

Windows 8: It's Almost Not Terrible
¤
Nov 17, 2012 - 11:00am

Yes ~ I've Seen All Good People

Yes ~ I've Seen All Good People: Your Move (1971)
Clubfoolish
Nov 17, 2012 - 10:50am

Chance to move public opinion about Gold ownership

Please respond to this Yahoo finance survey to help change public perception about the commonality of gold ownership (if more people say they own it, more people will want to own it).

Go to

finance.yahoo.com

scroll about halfway down, look on the right for this:

----------------------

What moves are you making ahead of the fiscal cliff?

I'm selling stocks (13587)
15%
I'm buying stocks on the dip (20154)
22%
I'm buying gold (6398)
7%
I'm investing overseas (1994)
2%
I'm doing nothing (47687)
54%

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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