Happy or Terrible?

Tue, Nov 13, 2012 - 10:36am

The week is finally rolling. Don't let this morning's downward action mislead you, though.

There were a couple of things working against us this morning. First, the rally in The Pig from yesterday provided cover to again enforce the hard caps at $1730 and $32.60. After the way the metals closed last week, the shorts are desperate to regain momentum to the downside and forestall any squeeze. Additionally, after the rally of last week, the Cartels are attempting to "paint" the CoT, which will be surveyed this afternoon. Taken together, you get a plunge in price all the way to $1718 in gold and $32.10 in silver.

So it is time to re-iterate this: Do not be dismayed. Today's weakness, like almost every other down day, should be used to accumulate even more physical.

2013 is going to be an extraordinary year for the metals. By this time next year, we will be looking back at the price levels and wondering just what in the heck we were doing by not literally running to the LCS every day and draining their inventory. I expect 2013 to be the year when The Great Bullion Bank Charade finally comes crashing down and, once the true extent of the fraud is acknowledged, the value of physical metal will skyrocket. Until that day comes, let the cruel and selfish manipulators continue to play their games. In doing so, they simply continue to sow the seeds of their own demise. You and I will simply remain patient and continue stacking physical metal at deeply discounted prices.

Here are a couple of updated charts to chew on. On these 8-hour charts, you can plainly see the Cartel defense lines as well as the general, rising trend from the bottoms identified about three weeks ago.

And have you seen the open interest numbers from Friday yet? Pretty interesting! Total gold OI surged over 2%, about 9,000 contracts, to about 462,000. Though still about 30,000 lower than the price and OI peak of 10/4, this is quite a jump nonetheless and part of a total rise of 20,000 in the past four days, alone. This is a clear sign of a momentum turn as price has been rallying, too.

The silver OI is even more interesting. It jumped about 1,000 on Friday and now rests at 142,611. This level is second only to the 143,056 seen on 10/12 as the highest levels of 2012. Again, with price rising over $1.50 from Tue-Fri of last week, this is clearly significant, new interest entering on the long side. Hmmmmm. What does that tell you? Are these new longs about to be fleeced or are they preparing for a big move UP? Hard to say for sure but one thing is certain, the older longs seem resolute and these new longs are already up on the trade. Both groups will therefore be quite tough to shake out on any forced declines like we saw earlier this morning.

And did you see this story over the weekend? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-11/chinese-gold-imports-surge-september-ytd-total-surpasses-official-indian-holdings. China is on pace to import over 800 metric tonnes of gold this year alone. 800 tonnes is more than the entire accumulated inventory of India! And that's just what they "officially" declare!! The true number is almost certainly far more than 800. What does this mean? It is also time to re-iterate this: One day soon, the Chinese will offer a new, gold-backed renminbi/yuan as an international alternative to the current U.S. dollar global trade settlement system. In conjunction, where London was the global base of bullion trading for the 19th and 20th centuries, Hong Kong will assume that role in the 21st Century. Period. End of story. Fait accompli.

So, please continue to prepare for next year and beyond. As I close, I see that the metals have rebounded sharply in the hour or so it has taken me to type this up. Good. This makes Turd happy. I hope you're happy, too. Have a great day.


2:15 pm EST UPDATE:

Today you witnessed a classic example of two Cartel tricks. One, volatility brought about by obvious CoT painting and, two, clear price capping to protect buy-stops from being overrun.

First, the capping. This has been an ongoing project for three weeks but it has been particularly nauseating since Friday. All of the action yesterday, in the extremely light volume environment, was dedicated to moving price back below the $1730 and $32.60 caps. The CoT-based volatility today briefly eclipsed those levels again and was not allowed to stand. Like a desperate, dying fighter...The. Caps. Must. Hold.

And now check out the closes today on these 1-minute charts. Believe it or not, I actually think this is a good sign and a positive. Remember, when The Cartel decides to "paint" the CoT, it does so with the intention of "wrong-footing" the analysts when the report is finally released 72 hours later. A bank will sell or buy into the Tuesday close in an effort to give a false impression of their actual positions. By selling into the close, someone/something was clearly attempting to minimize their reported long exposure. Why? Most likely that entity is bullish and does not want the full extent of that bullishness reflected on this week's CoT. With this in mind, check out the prices dumps that concluded exactly at the Comes close of each metal.

At any rate and regardless of the caps. today's action leaves me very optimistic regarding the remainder of this week. Long and strong.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 13, 2012 - 5:15pm

kinda ballsey call turd?

turd... theres a ton of selling pressure on the markets rite now... so your call for the PM to hold $1719 and $32.22 would seem risky at this point? must be the trader in you again? if we get by this week you mite have a better shot at being rite but i suspect your call is going to fail?? ps... my lil bro calls me today threatening to buy sum relic and he tells me supply is real tight.... duhhhh he will miss this rally again ....

Nov 13, 2012 - 5:18pm
The Watchman
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:21pm


Another 647,500 ASEs SOLD in last 3 DAYS.

2012 Silver Sales Totals
(in ounces / number of coins)
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
January 6,107,000
February 1,490,000
March 2,542,000
April 1,520,000
May 2,875,000
June 2,858,000
July 2,278,000
August 2,870,000
September 3,255,000
October 3,153,000
November 2,195,500
Total 31,143,500
Be Prepared
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:21pm

2013 will be exciting but the charade will continue...


Like you, I wish the truth of how the system really works would coming crashing down around its orchestrators, but I don't see 2013 being the year that happens... The system has not yet been squeezed for all its worth and there are more digital USDs to be handed out before this starts to really crumble. Even though $1 Trillion plus per year deficit is a crazy amount of money and will be added to our growing national debt, it's not enough to bring the machine to its knees. China and Russia still want the system to work as well because they don't have all their own ducks in a row and, specifically, haven't converted their USD currency reserve to enough fixed assets to warrant them taking action to completely abandon the USD as a trade instrument.

I think we will continue to see, as you have predicted, a good amount of appreciation in the metals during 2013..... that's for sure! :-)

Nigel Black
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:29pm

The Mullett speaks:

Bart Chilton on Large Position Concentrations and Precious Metals Manipulation!
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:36pm


Isn't that Quagmire from Family Guy?! b.t.w. I think you and a very prominent Turdite share the same first name.

Mudsharkbytes The Watchman
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:45pm

RE: Big Dicks Halfway Inn

I've driven past that sign many times. It's in the Lake of the Ozarks in central Missouri. Big Dicks is halfway to the Dam (Bagnall Dam). Story is, one of the waitresses was overheard to say innocently enough "Big Dicks is halfway in" to the dam, and the name stuck.

You can get an honorary t-shirt that says "I shot the minnow at Big Dicks" if you drink a shot of anything with a live minnow swimming in it, hence, "home of the original minnow shot". Considering what most people drink for their shots, the minnow doesn't live very long anyway!

The Watchman
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:52pm
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:53pm

two things

I like to think that Bart is the ONLY guy we have in our corner. However, listening to him talk, it strike me as disingenuous. He said he knows of those who have very large shorts positions, then says that

if they find them, they investigate them and go over them with a "fine-tooth comb". So which is it?? I guess I am missing something cause it sure seems like he knows. Hmmmmm



This ticks me off. Read the article, and you will understand. Nanoparticles they worry about?/ And they have health benefits!!!. WOW


Dyna mo hum Colonel Angus
Nov 13, 2012 - 5:53pm

Col. Angus

I buy the 40% Kennedy halves at times for one reason. Some weeks they fit into my budget much better. However I do like the ring of a Morgan better.

Nov 13, 2012 - 5:55pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Nov 13, 2012 - 5:56pm

@Be Prepared

"Even though $1 Trillion plus per year deficit is a crazy amount of money and will be added to our growing national debt, it's not enough to bring the machine to its knees."

Looking at the chart below, the debt is going exponential. Exponential means completely out of control in a very short period of time.

The debt shown, up to 2012, is accurate. Beyond that it's speculative and only based on increases seen over the previous years (ignoring that this is an exponential surge in debt).

I believe that the projection beyond 2012 is wrong. Up to 2012 it shows an emerging exponential chart that is not continuing as truly exponential beyond that.

The projection for 2012 -2020 should be massively higher - but in reality it won't happen that way because it will collapse well before then.

So I don't agree with you here. Debt, which IS growing exponentially, will bring the machine to it's knees, and a lot quicker than many think.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:04pm

Free gold

thanks for the debate fellas. Was interested in the question of how long you'd wait to buy a telly if it dropped 1% every day. Its not too far from the truth as tellies do drop in value continually. How long do you wait? Until your desire for the latest model matches your spending money. People spend money in deflationary economies, and even better than that they also save money. This is much healthier for the economy but not so good for the banks who prefer debt and interest.

One thing that puzzles me a bit about free gold. Admittedly I havn't studied it much. Anyway, In the free gold system you can use your income to go and buy some gold???? Isn't that what we are already doing whenever we go and order some coins?

Personally I quite like the libertarian ideas of Ron Paul who believes we should allow competition in money. I won't be surprised to see bitcoins rise to massive adoption in 10 years or so.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:08pm

Real names

When I was in high school one of my classmates had the unfortunate name of Jack Frost. Not content with that kind of humiliation, he was regularly referred to by the others as "Frosty Balls".

Worst, though was the gynecologist I regularly made pickups from (when I worked as a carrier for a couple of years while going to college) - name of, I kid you not, Dr. Coldfinger. I have no idea how he kept his business going with that name. I would have changed it.

Now back to your regularly scheduled discussion of metals.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:10pm


Nice RT Thunderlips post.

"If they do the crime they shouldn't just pay a fine, they should do the time"

What an arsehole. Listen to the way he says it. Totally without conviction.

On a different note - WOW, Lauren's great eh - she really asks the right questions! .

Green Lantern
Nov 13, 2012 - 6:16pm

Re: Miners...suck

Brother John in Silver Update posted last night gave a interesting point of view on how these idiot mining companies manage to always lose money by forward selling of contracts? Made sense. Also how the cost to mine per ounce of metal is all cooking the books. I always wonder how these idiots manage to post losses when the price of metal has risen. Yeah, i know, degrading ore, higher fuel costs, but c'mon now...Andy Hoffman might be right, miners suck and dont buy em!!Look at todays action and the last few days. Market up today, silver up now, silver miners sucking ass...What am i missing? Do these companies really give a rats ass about making money if they are hedged?

Yes, indeed! Everyday that goes by the big gold and silver mining companies are taking more metal out of the ground dwindling their resources. Everyday I read one board or another and see the utter fear and hopelessness among mining investors. Sprott has been working with the silver miners on not selling their contracts forward. I haven't heard an update. But miners just as people, just as business's are all struggling for their survival. Oh yes, indeed. (said with smirk on face)

Yet, everyday that goes by the demand for the hard metals grows and grows. Reserves in the ground dwindle, costs of fuel and equipment rises. Miners sell their soul to the future, to pay for today. But through it all, demand never dwindles. It grows like fungus on that 5 day old chinese food in the fridge. Everyday some poor working class person wakes and says, I want to buy a gold or silver coin, that is less gold and silver in the world to be had and one more ounce the miners have to find. To add injury to insult, not a day goes by that some professional newsletter writer is telling his readers to sell. Watch your ass. Markets are gonna tank.

The more I read that miners suck, the stronger my hands become. I ain't selling. I won't sell and you can pull my stock certificates from my cold, dead hands. That's right. Owning mines is now a lesson in tedium. And everyday that goes by that somebody gives an analysis like the above, the saliva begins to seep out and over my parched lips like a barbarian ready to devour the rotted meat on his bone. Arrgh Investors have had it up to here (pointing to my chin) While Sprott and Rule quietly and stealthily keep accumulating shares of mines in God forbidden lands. Why?

Field of Dreams

Because they realize one day people will wake up and they will come. They'll come for the gold for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up at the coin dealer not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, the proprietor will say we won't mind if you look around . They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is gold they want and peace they lack. People will come. The one constant through all the years has been gold and silver.. Civilizations have rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But gold and silver has marked the time. Gold, silver: it's a part of our past, . It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come. People will most definitely come.

There is a new gold rush just as their was once upon a time in America. It's no longer America. A place where the fields are rich with the yellow luminescent metal. Places which were once only traveled to by the scientists and explorers has been discovered. And these two men, broke, millions of dollars in debt, real estate brokers, have left their homes and families in the hopes of finding some of that luscious booty in the ground. This by far is the best gold show I've seen on television. The mines and properties fought over with weapons, Chinese guys with rifles, jungle justice and putting every penny of your money and every ounce of sweat for the prospect of finding the one thing man has searched more earnestly than the fountain of youth. Frank Zappa once said "Jazz ain't dead. It just smells funny" It applies with mining as well. Africa my friends. The final fronteir Ayyyy Ohh Wata wata wata wata Ayyy Ohh. Gold and silver rush ain't over. It's just beginning. Ayyyy Ohhh

Video unavailable

Man love me some African drums at night after that hot AFrican sun has gone down.

Baba Olatunji & his Drums of Passion- Akiwowo

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:18pm


While at the gym, I saw that Fed Goon Fisher is scheduled to be on CNBS with FOAD Kudlow at 7:00 pm EST.

Fed Goon Fisher has long been a reliable disinfo agent for The Fed, often dissenting and being considered a "hawk". On the bright side, since even KosherDakota has recently flipped to an "all-in for QE∞" position, maybe FGFisher will surprise?

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:19pm


worthless as tits on a boar.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:32pm

Talk abotu pissed 'cause Romney lost…

This lady takes the cake…

Video unavailable

If you can't take 24 minutes of cursing and screaming you'd best "move on".

robov Strawboss
Nov 13, 2012 - 6:34pm

@ Strawboss

pulled this off of Ed Steer's morning report

Nick Laird advised me late last night that the Sprott Physical Silver Fund...PSLV...has received/purchased 7,342,210 troy ounces of silver since last Thursday...5.9 million ounces on Friday and 1.4 million ounces yesterday...at least that's what it says on their website. If that's true, then delivery sure was fast. There may be a few more ounces to buy once the green shoe is announced later this month.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:36pm

GL- That was just brilliant

Inspired. Made my night.

Does this mean someday I get to play catch with the ghosts of the Hunt brothers? Toss around some ASE's? Sweet.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:37pm

Google: "Government surveillance is on the rise”

Google confirms:
‘Government surveillance is on the rise’

Google report reveals a sharp increase in government requests for private data.

The email accounts of Generals David Petraeus and John Allen aren’t the only ones being targeted by the feds. Google has released its bi-annual transparency report and says that the government's demands for personal data is at an all-time high.

Internet giant Google published statistics from their latest analysis of requests from governments around the globe this week, and the findings show that it is hardly just the inboxes of the Pentagon’s top-brass that are being put under the microscope. Details pertaining to nearly 8,000 Google and Gmail accounts have been ordered by Uncle Sam during just the first six months of the year, and figures from the periods before suggest that things aren’t about to get any better for those wishing to protect their privacy.

“This is the sixth time we’ve released this data, and one trend has become clear: Government surveillance is on the rise,” Google acknowledges in a blog post published Tuesday, November 13.


Bongo Jim
Nov 13, 2012 - 6:42pm


Well, I don't think that's Ann Barnhardt.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:45pm

Freegold confusion

I've always had difficulty understanding anything related to money and economics, probably because I can't easily discern flaws in complex arguments. Not to mention that I consider economics a flawed science. In my confusion over the issue of freegold I thought I had found a straightforward answer.

"FreeGold : A economic regime whereby the functions of money are split over multiple mediums. These mediums are freely exchangeable at a floating exchange rate and contracts are only enforceable in the Medium of Exchange."


In my excitement I commented "It seems that the Weimar republic was indeed an example of the freegold concept."

Only to be brought to task by a self-appointed expert "I stated explicitly that it was not. As te self-proclaimed new resident expert, I would think my opinion has some value. Unless you wish to claim full understanding of the freegold concept, at which point I suppose we could discuss the matter." whose prior comment regarding Weimar I had somehow missed

"No it was not. Fixed gold price. End of discussion. :)

( I should add. The price of gold was fixed in the currency of their external debt. It may have changed in Marks as the HI roared on, but the weight of gold they owed did not budge an ounce)"

Now I'm totally confused and am certainly far from any expertise on freegold. I wonder what is an economic regime? Did gold marks and paper marks have different functions? What does external currency debt have to do with it?

Your opinion might well have value but I am unable to judge since it has not enhanced my understanding.

Nov 13, 2012 - 6:49pm

Time to put the flying monkey away again

The end of another hard day capping the metals but now its time to put the flying monkey away again


The Watchman
Nov 13, 2012 - 6:52pm
Bongo Jim
Nov 13, 2012 - 6:53pm

What's in a name?

For my 20th High School reunion, I went online and found out the company that was putting it on, saw what their name tags looked like, made my own and crashed it. The picture on my tag was Alfred E. Newman (MAD magazine), and my name was Joe Bagadonis. I actually had people I knew, but hadn't seen in 20 years come up to me, look at my name tag and say (seriously): "Joe, how ya been?" or "Hi Joe, I don't recognize the name, are you someone's husband?" This and other things I've done in my job make me realize that attitude, bullshit and a good fake ID (or even a crappy one) will get you further than you'd imagine.

Dyna mo hum
Nov 13, 2012 - 6:56pm
Nov 13, 2012 - 7:09pm

Shilton has me steaming

Shilton talking points

"Yes there is manipulation. But we don't have any cajones,, money, clout, power, time, technology, jurisdiction, intelligence of mind or information......etc etc blah blah"

"We should have in place"

"We could have in place"

"Oh and I can't speak to that right now because it is an ongoing investigation"

Look at the expression on the putz's face with the overwrought concern.

and the kicker


really ?!! Bart

not sure if Lauren was pacifying or added fire of a different sort

deep breaths

Nov 13, 2012 - 7:13pm

Superb presentation from Naomi Wolf...

...from 2008 (skip to 5 mins if you don't like intro's).

A truly excellent joining-of-the-dots.



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