Outside Reversal Week

Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - 12:43pm

Longtime Turdites understand the significance of an "Outside Reversal" or "Engulfing" pattern. On the daily chart, an ORD has proven to be a very reliable indicator of a change of trend and momentum. When you get one on a weekly chart...

First, for the uninitiated, here's a definition from Investopedia:


As you might imagine, I have a good reason for bringing this to your attention. After all the dust settled yesterday, we are left with ORDs on both the gold and silver weekly charts. Taken by itself, of course, this is just one indicator of potential gains to come. Throw in the dynamic fundamentals as we close 2012 and head into 2013, and we've got plenty of reason to be excited. If you haven't yet bought this recent dip, you should probably consider doing so in the very near future.

And it's not just the weekly charts that look compelling, check out these daily charts:

As we break it down further, check out how pretty these 8-hour charts are. The sellstop-running plunges of 11/2, followed by the quick reversals and now the breakouts bode very well for next week and beyond.

And even the 2-hour charts look pretty salty. Let's see how long these short-term trends can continue next week:

All-in-all, confidence is extremely high that the month-long pullback in the metals is over. I expect a rally from here through the end of 2012 and I am anticipating an exciting, unprecedented and historic 2013.

From a news standpoint, I trust that most of you have already seen this. Just in case, though, here's a link. Add another log to the fire regarding the leased, hypothecated, gone for good German tungsten gold.


And I first published a link to this story on Thursday. Fortunately, in case you missed it, The Doc and DenverDave are all over it for you. https://www.silverdoctors.com/new-royal-canadian-mint-silver-etr-is-just-another-fractional-bullion-scam/

Lastly, we wrapped up our 2nd Anniversary Hat Contest yesterday and the winners are:


The Dec 12 settled at $1730.70 and "worldend666" edged out "mapleleaf" by a whopping 18 cents! Worldend guessed $1730.00 and Mapleleaf had $1731.58. WOW!!!


Here Mapleleaf got his/her revenge with a guess of $32.67. The actual close was $32.62. Very impressive!!


Crude settled at $86.07 and the winner, with a guess of $86.00, was "delric". Good job!

Congratulations to all three winners. Please email me your shipping information at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com and I'll ship you your very own autographed, genuine and authentic Turd Hat.

I hope that everyone has a safe and restful weekend. Get ready for an exciting week next and a very fun end of the year!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Motley Fool
Nov 13, 2012 - 4:21am

@tmosly Annoyance got the


Annoyance got the better of me and I decided to create an account to respond to your self-congratulary stupidity, which was so well received.

To start with, what would be in your personal best interest when buying something? Using a fiat currency that devalues or using gold that appreciate in value. The answer obviously is fiat.

Furthermore when transacting for normal items there is the inefficieny of barter to consider. Have you considered the difficulty in buying a new television with gold?

Furthermore, there are always small premiums to be paid when moving in our out of gold. Sales arbitrage is a natural thing, unless you think this cost should be foisted off on the government, which means that essentially you are advocating using the force of government to extract payments from others for your benenfit.

Let us assume for the purpose of this discussion that inflation is 2% annually under freegold. There are very valid reasons for this assumption, but let me skip those so that we do not get sidetracked from the main issue, and simply take it as a hypothetical assumption.


What part of your monthly income do you save, what part do you spend, and how long does it take you to make your regular expenditures?

Let us assume that you are a great saver, and save 25% of your monhtly income, and the rest goes towards rent or a bond, food and other neccesities.

Let us also assume that it takes you on average 10 days from getting paid to doing your monthly shopping, and covering all required expenses. We can also assume that your expenditures are regular, and you buy gold for long term savings with your 25% on the day you get paid every month.

So in essence you are exposed to the inflation rate during one third of the month of 75% of your income. That equates to a loss of 2/3% * 75% = 0.5% of your annual income too inflation. Yes it is a loss, but in the bigger scheme of things it's not that bad. There are reasons again, to do with human tribal nature to show that these losses are inevitable, but can we simply agree that this is another tax and that in the broad view it is not too big of a tax?

Why would you buy gold with that 75%, to only sell it again in order to settle your normal costs, incurring sales premium losses along the way?

Now that the preliminaries are settled. Let me take a look at your posting.

"Freegold can't last because no-one will transact in a currency that they can't hold for any amount of time. Fiat currencies are in demand because people save in them. If everyone immediately buys gold with them to store overnight, then the value of the transactional currency will go to zero overnight, every night. "

Given the transactional cost of buying in selling gold, what kind of idiot would buy gold every day, just to sell it again the next so that he can make payments he needs to make anyway? Why not simply keep the fiat and accept the 0.00005% devaluation overnight instead of the say 2% buying and 2% selling premium?

"It is, at best, a transition state between a fiat regime and a gold standard (NOT necessarily a government imposed/endorsed gold standard). If everyone wants gold, then everyone will transact in gold. That has held true for thousands of years. Creating a system that implicitly recognizes the confiscory nature of fiat currency, yet still demands that it be used is the peak of foolishness. No-one would fall for it for more than a few days. By its very nature it creates hyperinflation in the transactional currency, even if the government isn't printing said currency to fund its continuing budget shortfalls."

Transaction in fiat is convenient, and the costs for doing is is minimal. Transacting in gold is inconvenient and costly. Peak of foolishness? I guess the 0.5% loss per year due to this tax is unnacceptible to you, perhaps due to principle. I would call that foolish.

"As much as FOFOA talks (types), he still can't see a simple truth like that. The reason is that he is a human being, and humans cling to the theories that they come up with, even when they are quite plainly wrong. Look around you, and you will see that it is the case, from Keynesians to people of religions other than your own, everyone does it."

Ad hominem. Nice. Do I even need to respond to that, given your own demonstrated lack of critical thinking ability?

Gold is for saving, fiat is for spending.

The Fool

Nov 13, 2012 - 4:09am

.....'Bang, bang, bang: six

.....'Bang, bang, bang: six times people have tried to force the price down' – the suspicious trading behaviour that led to an FSA investigation Link to this video

edit:- I don't know what they're worried about.......there are suspicious spikes in G&S nearly every day. (?)

Nov 13, 2012 - 4:05am
Nov 13, 2012 - 3:45am
Nov 13, 2012 - 2:31am

Adam Fergusson Interview ...

Fregusson’s ‘Death of Money’ worthwhile read when time permits, especially recent addition w/post-2008 observations … interesting ‘FOFOA’ / freegold discussion and thx for link to Reg Howe views which I had not seen before.

Lots of endgame variants, with most reaching the simple conclusion that gold (& silver IMO) are paths to protect oneself as we navigate through this slow-motion, global financial crisis.

Nov 13, 2012 - 2:28am

Harvey/French Tax spies in The US

Edit/ Apologies for Double Post.

Nov 13, 2012 - 2:26am

Harvey/French Tax spies in The US

Keep this one in perspective. The US is the ONLY developed country which taxes its citizens, even non-residents, on worldwide income. European countries, including France, only tax Citizens on income earned IN country once non-residence has been established. So, for instance, a French citizen working and living in the US would be liable for US taxes but NOT French taxes on earned AND unearned/investment income outside France. Many Asian countries (Hong Kong, Singapore) have sub-20% flat rates of income tax and, for those working Regionally, do not tax income earned outside the country on a "Nights in/Nights out" prorata basis. So for a UK citizen based in Hong Kong travelling half of his time for work, he would enjoy a net rate of income tax of about 8% and would have NO liability for UK income tax. Conversely, for a US citizen living in Hong Kong..............well, Uncle Sam allows you to deduct Hong Kong taxes paid. Oh, and incidentally, it;s very difficult for US citizens to open Bank Accounts outside the US these days now that the IRS has unilaterally decided it has Global jurisdiction.

Oh to be an American?

Nov 13, 2012 - 2:18am

Agree ivars

It might take a week, but that shape is looking good to me too.


On another note, check this for the total lack of irony...

#1 Fixed Income Research House 2012 - Barclays | Economist.com (advertisement)

...fixed alright ...sheesh!

Nov 13, 2012 - 1:55am

GSR consolidated a bit

GSR consolidated a bit yesterday. The latest trend is still down.

Nov 13, 2012 - 1:22am

Speaking of Hats!

Maybe we should "chip-in"??? ;-) https://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-hat-sculpture-20121112,0,725611... Salinas' plan to restore hat sculptures garners mixed reviews The outgoing mayor has asked City Council to approve $160,000 to restore Claes Oldenburg and Coosje van Bruggen's 'Hat in Three Stages of Landing,' which some consider a monstrosity.

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