Outside Reversal Week

Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - 12:43pm

Longtime Turdites understand the significance of an "Outside Reversal" or "Engulfing" pattern. On the daily chart, an ORD has proven to be a very reliable indicator of a change of trend and momentum. When you get one on a weekly chart...

First, for the uninitiated, here's a definition from Investopedia:


As you might imagine, I have a good reason for bringing this to your attention. After all the dust settled yesterday, we are left with ORDs on both the gold and silver weekly charts. Taken by itself, of course, this is just one indicator of potential gains to come. Throw in the dynamic fundamentals as we close 2012 and head into 2013, and we've got plenty of reason to be excited. If you haven't yet bought this recent dip, you should probably consider doing so in the very near future.

And it's not just the weekly charts that look compelling, check out these daily charts:

As we break it down further, check out how pretty these 8-hour charts are. The sellstop-running plunges of 11/2, followed by the quick reversals and now the breakouts bode very well for next week and beyond.

And even the 2-hour charts look pretty salty. Let's see how long these short-term trends can continue next week:

All-in-all, confidence is extremely high that the month-long pullback in the metals is over. I expect a rally from here through the end of 2012 and I am anticipating an exciting, unprecedented and historic 2013.

From a news standpoint, I trust that most of you have already seen this. Just in case, though, here's a link. Add another log to the fire regarding the leased, hypothecated, gone for good German tungsten gold.


And I first published a link to this story on Thursday. Fortunately, in case you missed it, The Doc and DenverDave are all over it for you. https://www.silverdoctors.com/new-royal-canadian-mint-silver-etr-is-just-another-fractional-bullion-scam/

Lastly, we wrapped up our 2nd Anniversary Hat Contest yesterday and the winners are:


The Dec 12 settled at $1730.70 and "worldend666" edged out "mapleleaf" by a whopping 18 cents! Worldend guessed $1730.00 and Mapleleaf had $1731.58. WOW!!!


Here Mapleleaf got his/her revenge with a guess of $32.67. The actual close was $32.62. Very impressive!!


Crude settled at $86.07 and the winner, with a guess of $86.00, was "delric". Good job!

Congratulations to all three winners. Please email me your shipping information at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com and I'll ship you your very own autographed, genuine and authentic Turd Hat.

I hope that everyone has a safe and restful weekend. Get ready for an exciting week next and a very fun end of the year!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 11, 2012 - 5:56pm


It comes as little surprise that you are expert on both Sociopaths AND Trolls.

Mr. Fixالقراع عصفور
Nov 11, 2012 - 6:01pm

@ Dryocopus pileatus.


After many years of reading Zero Hedge,
it is easy to conclude with one trip down any thread,
that it is infested with sociopaths,
and yet somehow they survive.
Sociopaths are simply a reality on Internet forums.
I have already explained in entirety how I deal with them.
I just read the last two pages of the Blithe thread,
and quite frankly I think you guys outdid yourselves,
and even succeeded in sinking below "Recalling 2004",
which according to Turd, was the “worst thread ever”.
I already explained above in this thread how I deal with trolls.
In fact, there is a fairly decent example of it as the first post on page 2 of the Jim Willie thread.
I do not believe that it is the responsibility of the residence of "Turdville" to take on sociopathic trolls.
I figure if Turd does not want them here anymore, they will simply cease to exist. My only responsibility to trolls, is to not feed them.

Do what you want on your quest, I am done.

S Roche
Nov 11, 2012 - 6:07pm


"they [the banks] are experts at verifying credit and managing their reserves..." In the immortal words of Ruprecht: "Oh rilly?"

I happen to be with Ivars on this. I honestly think he is further down the road than you give him credit for and a bit of humility in expressing your opinion might benefit everybody concerned, primarily yourself.

The credit (which is subject to pro-cyclical standards variation in any event, see above] is not derived from capital saved, that is the very point and it is unfortunate that you chose this as your starting point. Ivars' example was simplified for non-economists and as far as it goes I think it is accurate and a good tool for education. The simplicity of the faith based acceptance of the medium of exchange reveals the true nature of the social trust that is first required...and then abused.

If we accept that the point of these exchanges is to share information and outlooks then I am happy to continue.

Nov 11, 2012 - 6:09pm

And things are looking up

Hey - gold and silver opened up? My giraffes are looking tall tonight.

Nov 11, 2012 - 6:13pm

@ Vypuero Hard money "stymies" growth? How?

Suppose APPLE appointed me to be their new CEO and wanted me to make 40 billion dollars for the company in 2013. So they setup a board meeting to find out what my plan would be. Imagine I propose sth like this:

"Step one I will call Federal Reserve and ask Ben to generate 40 billion extra credits for Apple so that I can achieve the goal. No, no, no, don't laugh, you guys don't understand. W/o that 40 billion credit creation our growth would be stymied."

Should that be my proposal? Would any CEO propose sth like that? I guess not. So how should I make that 40 billion properly then? Well via competition just like always of course. If I produce some new phones / tablets / computers that plain kick butt, I would lure customers away from my competition. Those who could buy Samsung / Microsoft products would end up buying my new iPhone / iPad / iWhatNot. There I would get my growth w/o the need of soft money. If Samsung wants to fight back then they would have to up their game. What we would have is a healthy, market-driven competition.

Now suppose there's a company called ABBLE trying to compete with me but produces crappy consumer electronic goods so they got no business. They, however, have connection with Ben who then sets up a QE-lite / bailout for ABBLE that prints 40 billion every year to buy their products. Now ABBLE too could achieve growth.

Do you see the difference now? People from the paper camp have the flawed belief that we need soft money for growth. Not true. Sound business can attract money supply on its own merit. It just takes a little competition, recognition and time. It sure does not give you fast $ furious growth but it gives you a steady and prudent one. Business needing vast credit-creation is either a poor business or a bubble that really deserves no money supply to begin with.

Nov 11, 2012 - 6:18pm

More good news...

I wish Canada had some gold to re-patriate...not that Harper would be likely to do so anyways...but one can dream:


No worries...with what, 8000 tons. Sure they do....

S Roche
Nov 11, 2012 - 6:20pm


Above key support trend lines and Fib levels on the daily/weekly changeover 17 minutes ago...

Edit: oops, I think I'm getting ahead of myself with times zones, 43 minutes to go...

Nov 11, 2012 - 6:20pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Nov 11, 2012 - 6:34pm

Fibonacci Pigeons?

I keep out of the whole T & A, I mean TA, debate for a number of reasons. Inadequate math skills, short attention span, the meds, etc. But I read compulsively, and let things wash over me. I would like to deny Fibonacci sequences but cannot not. From the moment they showed up in nature and proved that math existed, once again, it seems they will not be denied. I don't see why they should have any bearing on the price of a commodity, determined through so many disparate variables, but there it is.

Nov 11, 2012 - 6:38pm


My fave was this one:

You have two giraffes.
The government requires you to take harmonica lessons."


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