Outside Reversal Week

Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - 12:43pm

Longtime Turdites understand the significance of an "Outside Reversal" or "Engulfing" pattern. On the daily chart, an ORD has proven to be a very reliable indicator of a change of trend and momentum. When you get one on a weekly chart...

First, for the uninitiated, here's a definition from Investopedia:


As you might imagine, I have a good reason for bringing this to your attention. After all the dust settled yesterday, we are left with ORDs on both the gold and silver weekly charts. Taken by itself, of course, this is just one indicator of potential gains to come. Throw in the dynamic fundamentals as we close 2012 and head into 2013, and we've got plenty of reason to be excited. If you haven't yet bought this recent dip, you should probably consider doing so in the very near future.

And it's not just the weekly charts that look compelling, check out these daily charts:

As we break it down further, check out how pretty these 8-hour charts are. The sellstop-running plunges of 11/2, followed by the quick reversals and now the breakouts bode very well for next week and beyond.

And even the 2-hour charts look pretty salty. Let's see how long these short-term trends can continue next week:

All-in-all, confidence is extremely high that the month-long pullback in the metals is over. I expect a rally from here through the end of 2012 and I am anticipating an exciting, unprecedented and historic 2013.

From a news standpoint, I trust that most of you have already seen this. Just in case, though, here's a link. Add another log to the fire regarding the leased, hypothecated, gone for good German tungsten gold.


And I first published a link to this story on Thursday. Fortunately, in case you missed it, The Doc and DenverDave are all over it for you. https://www.silverdoctors.com/new-royal-canadian-mint-silver-etr-is-just-another-fractional-bullion-scam/

Lastly, we wrapped up our 2nd Anniversary Hat Contest yesterday and the winners are:


The Dec 12 settled at $1730.70 and "worldend666" edged out "mapleleaf" by a whopping 18 cents! Worldend guessed $1730.00 and Mapleleaf had $1731.58. WOW!!!


Here Mapleleaf got his/her revenge with a guess of $32.67. The actual close was $32.62. Very impressive!!


Crude settled at $86.07 and the winner, with a guess of $86.00, was "delric". Good job!

Congratulations to all three winners. Please email me your shipping information at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com and I'll ship you your very own autographed, genuine and authentic Turd Hat.

I hope that everyone has a safe and restful weekend. Get ready for an exciting week next and a very fun end of the year!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 10, 2012 - 12:44pm

And in case you missed it

Here's a C&P on my CoT instant analysis yesterday:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on November 9, 2012 - 2:51pm.
Keep in mind that this week's CoT encompasses the big drop of last Friday and the equally large rebound of Tuesday.


For the Tue-Tue week, price was UP $3 while OI fell 7600. Check this math: Large Specs sold 11,000 longs and the Small Specs dumped 3,900. Total = 15,000. The Gold Cartel added 400 new longs and covered 14,600 shorts. Total = 15,000. What a freaking joke. Talk about getting played like a Stradivarius! Run the spec stops on Friday. Buy all their 15,000 contracts from them. Make $40 per on Tuesday. SWEET!


Same shit, different metal. The Large specs sold 2,600 longs and the small specs sold 1,100. The Cartel (JPM) added 2,200 longs and covered 1,800 new longs. And you wonder why 90% of all silver traders get wiped out within 90 days of beginning trading.

Anyway, on the bright side, this week The Gold Cartel net short position declined by 15,000 contracts and The Silver Cartel net short position fell by 4,100. From their peak on the report of 10/2/12, The Gold Cartel net short positions has fallen by 61,528 contracts from 269,270 to 207,742 or 23%. The Silver Cartel net short position has fallen by 8,162 contracts from 57,840 to 49,678 or 14%. As additional reference, though, the Cartel net short positions on 8/14/12 were 143,940 and 23,402, respectively.

Nov 10, 2012 - 12:46pm



Nov 10, 2012 - 12:47pm



Nov 10, 2012 - 1:03pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Urban Roman
Nov 10, 2012 - 1:13pm

In Germany,

it's pronounced "Wolfram". Which is why its symbol is 'W'.

And that ZH article was the first time I had seen the term "Bad delivery bars". Apparently some of the bars sent to Germany were just unrefined dore, or whatever. They didn't pass the assay test.

Nov 10, 2012 - 1:27pm

Nothing to worry about

Te and Iz's first rap
Island Guy
Nov 10, 2012 - 1:28pm

Technical Analysis vs. Market Manipulation

The technical analysis put forth by Turd is very impressive, but so is his evidence that the metals market is blatantly manipulated. Granted, the Outside Reversal forces are exceptionally strong right now. But what compelling reason do we have to presume that this upward pressure will be greater than the downward pressure caused by the manipulation?

As many people in Turdville have noted before, the forces manipulating the market are quite strong and able to overcome mild upward pressure. For this reason technical analysis often does not work in the metals market unless/until the market forces are so great that they overcome the manipulators. What is it about Outside Reversals that make them stronger than the manipulators? Is there some track record where the Cartel simply had to step aside when confronted with an Outside Reversal?

Nov 10, 2012 - 1:36pm

top ten :)

Can anybody tell me if the central banks can take the treasuries they're buying with the QE and us it for fractional reserve lending and investing?

Nov 10, 2012 - 1:38pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Be Prepared
Nov 10, 2012 - 1:41pm

The Watchtower...

.... it's a great icon for these times and for this blog. This blog's icon is not a yellow hat, but the Watchtower and I hope Turd goes back to that at the mast. We are not trying to be trendy or web 2.0 here, but engage the ever unfolding and morphing series of events and try to navigate them in a sane and positive way. The Watchtower is a perch to see what is coming before it stands at the precipice of your doorway. It gives you a vantage point upon which to assess the horizon without being in the middle of the fray.

I am a Turdite, but I stand on the Watchtower...

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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