Outside Reversal Week

481
Sat, Nov 10, 2012 - 12:43pm

Longtime Turdites understand the significance of an "Outside Reversal" or "Engulfing" pattern. On the daily chart, an ORD has proven to be a very reliable indicator of a change of trend and momentum. When you get one on a weekly chart...

First, for the uninitiated, here's a definition from Investopedia:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outsidereversal.asp#axzz2BqAAjwOg

As you might imagine, I have a good reason for bringing this to your attention. After all the dust settled yesterday, we are left with ORDs on both the gold and silver weekly charts. Taken by itself, of course, this is just one indicator of potential gains to come. Throw in the dynamic fundamentals as we close 2012 and head into 2013, and we've got plenty of reason to be excited. If you haven't yet bought this recent dip, you should probably consider doing so in the very near future.

And it's not just the weekly charts that look compelling, check out these daily charts:

As we break it down further, check out how pretty these 8-hour charts are. The sellstop-running plunges of 11/2, followed by the quick reversals and now the breakouts bode very well for next week and beyond.

And even the 2-hour charts look pretty salty. Let's see how long these short-term trends can continue next week:

All-in-all, confidence is extremely high that the month-long pullback in the metals is over. I expect a rally from here through the end of 2012 and I am anticipating an exciting, unprecedented and historic 2013.

From a news standpoint, I trust that most of you have already seen this. Just in case, though, here's a link. Add another log to the fire regarding the leased, hypothecated, gone for good German tungsten gold.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-09/exclusive-bank-england-fed-no-indication-should-course-be-given-bundesbank

And I first published a link to this story on Thursday. Fortunately, in case you missed it, The Doc and DenverDave are all over it for you. https://www.silverdoctors.com/new-royal-canadian-mint-silver-etr-is-just-another-fractional-bullion-scam/

Lastly, we wrapped up our 2nd Anniversary Hat Contest yesterday and the winners are:

GOLD

The Dec 12 settled at $1730.70 and "worldend666" edged out "mapleleaf" by a whopping 18 cents! Worldend guessed $1730.00 and Mapleleaf had $1731.58. WOW!!!

SILVER

Here Mapleleaf got his/her revenge with a guess of $32.67. The actual close was $32.62. Very impressive!!

CRUDE

Crude settled at $86.07 and the winner, with a guess of $86.00, was "delric". Good job!

Congratulations to all three winners. Please email me your shipping information at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com and I'll ship you your very own autographed, genuine and authentic Turd Hat.

I hope that everyone has a safe and restful weekend. Get ready for an exciting week next and a very fun end of the year!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  481 Comments

· Nov 10, 2012 - 12:44pm

And in case you missed it

Here's a C&P on my CoT instant analysis yesterday:

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on November 9, 2012 - 2:51pm.
Keep in mind that this week's CoT encompasses the big drop of last Friday and the equally large rebound of Tuesday.

GOLD

For the Tue-Tue week, price was UP $3 while OI fell 7600. Check this math: Large Specs sold 11,000 longs and the Small Specs dumped 3,900. Total = 15,000. The Gold Cartel added 400 new longs and covered 14,600 shorts. Total = 15,000. What a freaking joke. Talk about getting played like a Stradivarius! Run the spec stops on Friday. Buy all their 15,000 contracts from them. Make $40 per on Tuesday. SWEET!

SILVER

Same shit, different metal. The Large specs sold 2,600 longs and the small specs sold 1,100. The Cartel (JPM) added 2,200 longs and covered 1,800 new longs. And you wonder why 90% of all silver traders get wiped out within 90 days of beginning trading.

Anyway, on the bright side, this week The Gold Cartel net short position declined by 15,000 contracts and The Silver Cartel net short position fell by 4,100. From their peak on the report of 10/2/12, The Gold Cartel net short positions has fallen by 61,528 contracts from 269,270 to 207,742 or 23%. The Silver Cartel net short position has fallen by 8,162 contracts from 57,840 to 49,678 or 14%. As additional reference, though, the Cartel net short positions on 8/14/12 were 143,940 and 23,402, respectively.

treefrog · Nov 10, 2012 - 12:46pm

oneth

furst!

silver66 · Nov 10, 2012 - 12:47pm

close

Thurd

Anonymous · Nov 10, 2012 - 1:03pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Urban Roman · Nov 10, 2012 - 1:13pm

In Germany,

it's pronounced "Wolfram". Which is why its symbol is 'W'.

And that ZH article was the first time I had seen the term "Bad delivery bars". Apparently some of the bars sent to Germany were just unrefined dore, or whatever. They didn't pass the assay test.

Notsochewy · Nov 10, 2012 - 1:27pm

Nothing to worry about

Te and Iz's first rap
Island Guy · Nov 10, 2012 - 1:28pm

Technical Analysis vs. Market Manipulation

The technical analysis put forth by Turd is very impressive, but so is his evidence that the metals market is blatantly manipulated. Granted, the Outside Reversal forces are exceptionally strong right now. But what compelling reason do we have to presume that this upward pressure will be greater than the downward pressure caused by the manipulation?

As many people in Turdville have noted before, the forces manipulating the market are quite strong and able to overcome mild upward pressure. For this reason technical analysis often does not work in the metals market unless/until the market forces are so great that they overcome the manipulators. What is it about Outside Reversals that make them stronger than the manipulators? Is there some track record where the Cartel simply had to step aside when confronted with an Outside Reversal?

sengfarmer · Nov 10, 2012 - 1:36pm

top ten :)

Can anybody tell me if the central banks can take the treasuries they're buying with the QE and us it for fractional reserve lending and investing?

Anonymous · Nov 10, 2012 - 1:38pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Be Prepared · Nov 10, 2012 - 1:41pm

The Watchtower...

.... it's a great icon for these times and for this blog. This blog's icon is not a yellow hat, but the Watchtower and I hope Turd goes back to that at the mast. We are not trying to be trendy or web 2.0 here, but engage the ever unfolding and morphing series of events and try to navigate them in a sane and positive way. The Watchtower is a perch to see what is coming before it stands at the precipice of your doorway. It gives you a vantage point upon which to assess the horizon without being in the middle of the fray.

I am a Turdite, but I stand on the Watchtower...


dropout · Nov 10, 2012 - 2:03pm

Bundesbank "Almost" 999.9 Gold.

Dore bars are usually the medium of metal, between a mines rough output and a refinery for further smelting. These "bad delivery bars" that were supposedly sent to the German Bundesbank, were correct in every aspect except their assayed purity not being the required 999.9 fine gold.

Where did these bars come from? There has been only one massive confiscation of gold, mostly in the form of coinage, during the past three quarters of a century. And that occurred under FDR's presidency in 1934. What does this have to do with "bad delivery bars?"

Gold coins are not 999.9 fine gold, unless stated so on the coin. Pure gold is much to soft to use as circulated coinage. The coins would wear out in short order. Instead, the refiners combine other metals with the gold during final smelt, to add strength to the gold coins that will be circulated. This lowers the gold content of the coins to as low as 90 % of the coins volume.

The US gold confiscation of 1934 netted the federal government a very large amount of gold coins. So large was this amount, that the various smelters did not bother to refine the gold and just poured sub-standard gold bars, which must number in the many thousands. These bars supposedly ended up securely stored at the newly purpose built Fort Knox, to be kept there until further refinement before being released.

Obviously, some of these "bad delivery bars" have escaped!

El Gordo · Nov 10, 2012 - 2:08pm

I working up...

...my end of the year master plan as we speak. As I see it right now, I have 3 options: (1) buy; (2) sell or (3) hold. To make it even more interesting is the fact that I do not have a clue what I am doing or why I am doing it, but I guess everybody has to be doing something. I did an inventory and compared it to my previously deemed flawless PM accounting systems and made 2 discoveries. My accounting system is not flawless since at some point human input is required (unfortunately by me), and while I only discovered 2 miscalculations, I find that my average costs are not as good as I thought they were and that as a result, I made a couple of acquisitions that I thought would improve my average which in fact made it a little worse - but so what. I then decided that I would ignore anything that I learned and just go with my "gut" feel in the future, and my gut tells me to buy whatever I can whenever I can with my strike price anywhere around the $31.00 mark. 

To those of you who feel compelled to harass others on here or ridicule someone simply because they act stupid, I've got a few things to say, but this is Turd's blog and not mine, so I'll leave it up to him to comments. If you want to pick on someone stupid, come pick on me. I do not understand why, with all the privileges available to us such as PM, IU, and even specific threads with in depth studies of virtually any topic you wish, some are compelled to spray their venom over all of us. I'm not leaving, and I'm setting up the cameras for Mondes to come over with my birthday butt kicking that he promised. More later.

ivars · Nov 10, 2012 - 2:26pm

Another find-"Icelandic

Another find-"Icelandic Economic Collapse. A systems analysis perspective on financial, social and world system links":

https://skemman.is/en/stream/get/1946/9908/24833/2/IcelandicBankReportPrintedVersion.pdf

And another: (who can read this? but in case someone likes to flip pages or read summaries):

https://jenner.com/lehman/

Quote:

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chapter 11 Proceedings Examiner Report

Jenner & Block is providing links to the Report of the Examiner in the Chapter 11 proceedings of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The Examiner’s report, reproduced below in individual Adobe Acrobat PDF files, is divided into nine volumes and features hyperlinks to all of the documents cited in the report’s over 8,000 footnotes.

Gramp · Nov 10, 2012 - 2:36pm

Barnhardt vs Blythe!

That would b a sweet vid. for some one to make! lol!

DayStar · Nov 10, 2012 - 2:48pm

Harvey's Up!

Good day all gold and silver enthusiasts! Harvey today contains a summary of TF's referenced articles regarding the Bundesbank's sub-par gold and the article and the Royal Canadian Mint Exchange Traded Fund silver fraud fund. The gold ETF's miraculously found tons of bullion in the past 3 days, Merrill Lynch says China's economy is recovering, James Turk was on Russia Today explaining the risks of paper gold, Egon von Greyerz goes apocalyptic on King World News, Dr Jeffrey Lewis describes Comex manipulation of silver. There are also some pithy quotes. All this and more on the Harvey Report!

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/579189#comment-579189

DayStar

Mr. Fix · Nov 10, 2012 - 3:07pm

Admittedly, I am not a big chart fan,

 but there has never been a better time in history to be “all in” on gold and silver physical bullion.

 Just remember, if you can't actually put your hands on it,

 you don't own it. 

Island Guy · Nov 10, 2012 - 3:16pm

Repitition

I'll say it again:

The only reason I've ever had any "luck" with my metals TA is because the metals are manipulated.

Be Prepared · Nov 10, 2012 - 3:18pm

47.1 million and Counting...

I can imagine we all expected that this number would continue to surge because it is one of the few numbers that gives a clear indication of how much people are really hurting..... Food Stamps... SNAP..... this is the modern version of the Soup Kitchen line, except the government does it this way to keep the whole thing under wrap and hidden from view. TPTB can't afford for a visual representation of just how bad things are to be seen on television.. night after night.

When we see this chart, it means more people are falling off their own fiscal cliff and, regardless of the reasons, will find it very difficult to find a way off this chart without "true" economic growth. In December 2009, we were over 8.5 million jobs in the hole and now the government is saying that we only have a 4.6 million job deficit. It's not believable with this many people on welfare. The jobs that have come back are part-time, lower wage jobs that don't pay a living wage for a family of four.... so food stamps are the go to solution. What's even more laughable is that Obamacare will incentivize service and retail businesses to put millions more full-time employees onto part-time to avoid paying the $3,000 per employee healthcare fine.... it's a real job maker. :-)

SilverDog66 · Nov 10, 2012 - 3:32pm

Professor Says Gold is Useless? Conversation with TA

Hey guys this video quite interesting. It gives you perspective into what the main-stream education system is teaching our youth through the education system. The professor told the class, "Gold is useless, it's only good for electronics and jewelry" and the TA's response is PRICELESS when asked about the comment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K8f1ZwSOdnM#!

S Roche · Nov 10, 2012 - 4:19pm

re Technical Analysis...

So, TA does not work in un-manipulated markets?

There are so many different types of Technical Analysis that some of them are bound to work at different times. I've not read one comment on this board that makes me believe any less in TA, every comment I've read de-crying TA is clearly from a poor practitioner who has lost money trading. If you immerse yourself in the subject you will see patterns.

An interesting thing though, all over the web and throughout the financial world you have people selling their TA methods, which, if they worked as claimed, would make their proponents billionaires many times over.

The fact is, whether it's money management or real-time emotions, most people are terrible traders.

I like the fact that Turd puts his TA up there for all to see and explains his interpretation and announces his trades. It is absolutely transparent and honest, unlike almost all those selling TA systems. 

A1Topgun · Nov 10, 2012 - 4:23pm

Is Pb a Commidity?

Will it rise in relation to to Ag and Au?

Monedas A1Topgun · Nov 10, 2012 - 4:31pm

A1Topgun !

Lead is a sinker !

Monedas · Nov 10, 2012 - 4:51pm

Not bad, Daystar !

I'm growing as a peeple ! Yesterday I was a racist, bigot, homophobe .... thanks to BO .... I'm now a "diverse peeple" ! I'm even starting to enjoy HO, butt, he better stay on the Moanex' Ass or I'll have to give him a swift kick to his ass ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Free Swift Butt Kicks .... Butt, And This Is A Big Butt, You Can Pay Me If You Want To World Tour devil PS: Feliz Chingados Cumpleaños, Gordin´ !

A1Topgun Monedas · Nov 10, 2012 - 5:03pm

A Sinker?

Give me a fish and I will eat for a day. Give me a cell phone and . . .

I was thinking in 124gr JHP.

SteveW · Nov 10, 2012 - 5:05pm

US assay office sub-par gold

I've read the zero hedge article and their inferences about the purity and fail to see any "evidence" that the Germans were sent any sub-par gold. While I may not have the expertise of ZH in markets and economics I can read simple English.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-09/exclusive-bank-england-fed-no-indication-should-course-be-given-bundesbank

So what are the facts stated in the 1968 letter?

2. "Recently, Johnson Matthey have put 172 “bad delivery” U.S. Assay Office bars into good delivery form for account of the Deutsche Bundesbank."

So an approved refiner converted sub-par bars into good delivery form.

"These bars formed part of recent shipments by the Federal Reserve Bank to provide gold in London in repayment of swaps with the Bundesbank."

So there were other bars sent with the newly refined bars. It makes sense logically that these other bars were good delivery otherwise why were these also not refined?

"The out-turn of the re-melting showed a loss in fine ounces terms four times greater than the gross weight loss."

So this means that the assay of the bad delivery bars was way out of whack in understating their fineness or gold content.

7. "We hold 3,909 U.S. Assay Office bars for H.M.T. in London (in addition to the New York holding of 8,630 bars). After the London gold market was reopened in 1954 we test assayed the bars of certain assayers to ensure that pre-war standards were being maintained. It might be premature to set up arrangements now for sample test assays of U.S. Assay Office bars but if it appeared likely that the present discontent of the refiners might crystalise into formal complain we should certainly need to do this. In the meantime I would recommend no further action."

The BOE, having discovered that US assay office bars "showed a loss in fine ounces terms four times greater than the gross weight loss" decides to do nothing about the 12,539 such bars that it holds in London and New York.

ZH summary: "To summarize: Bank of England discovers discrepancies with US Assay Office gold bars, notifies the NY Fed that its gold bars have major "bad delivery" issues, but, and this is the punchline, on this occasion, we'll keep it quiet, because the Bundesbank got these bars."

My summary: BOE discovers discrepancies with US Assay Office gold bars, does nothing about the bars to which it has title but does not inform the Bundesbank about the problems with the US Assay Office gold bars that the Bundesbank may hold in New York. The Bundesbank at that time got good delivery refined bars from JM.

Anonymous · Nov 10, 2012 - 5:55pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

The Watchman · Nov 10, 2012 - 6:02pm

Maybe the GERMANS will accept THESE:

Chocolate Gold Coins Jar - 180 / Jar Fort Knox Milk Chocolate Gold Coins are the Gold Standard of chocolate coins
The Watchman · Nov 10, 2012 - 6:07pm
· Nov 10, 2012 - 6:24pm

"gold more profitable for ... unauthorized trade than currency"

Shortage spurs gold black marketeering rife

KATHMANDU, Nov 11: Black marketeering of gold has increased as yellow metal becomes scarce in the market. Officials of the Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers Association (Negosida) disclosed to Republica that some of the dealers were currently charging customers as much as Rs 1,000 more on a tola (11.664 grams) of yellow metal over its official retail rate.

Though dealers close their outlets on public holidays, they ran their businesses on Saturday as well keeping in mind Dhan Teras, which falls on Sunday, and Laxmi Puja due on Tuesday. And some of the retailers charged their customers as high as Rs 61,099 per tola of gold, which is Rs 1,000 more than Negosida set rate.

“Yes we received complaints of some of the dealers forcing customers to pay Rs 1,000 more per tola,” confirmed Tej Ratna Shakya, president of Negosida. “As their act was unfair, we instantly instructed them to refrain from such acts,” he told Republica.

Dealers said the black marketeering has surfaced mainly because gold has become scarce in the market. According to them, gold demand has presently soared to around 45 kgs a day due to festive consumption and upcoming marriage season whereas supply from the banking system - the only official supply channel - continues to remain at 15 kgs a day....

But dealers like Shakya, however, argue differently. “IC 100 in the informal currency market, from where illicit traders mainly source the IC, is presently traded at Rs 168 -- Rs 8 higher than official rate. Hence, unlike the government´s assessment, our calculations is payment through gold becomes more profitable for financing unauthorized trade than currency,” said Shakya.

Negosida officials, including Shakya, said that their association has already reported their speculations and problems to the NRB rules, requesting it to correct the operations in the market. 

In its suggestions, Negosida has asked the NRB to ensure that commercial banks are strictly adhering to its rules. It has also requested the central bank to increase the daily supply quota of gold in the market, and also increase IC supply in the system in order to do away with currency anomalies.


https://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id...

TheRationalist · Nov 10, 2012 - 6:48pm

UK Press

Form the UK Guardian on why Romney lost.

On economics the Republican party plays host to a powerful and vocal wing of libertarians who wish to slash and burn government spending. They cling to a conservative world view that has forced previously extreme stances – such as abolishing the federal Department of Education and returning the dollar to the gold standard – into the heart of Republican thought.

I'm British and, by the by, a linguist. Look at the adjectives applied to the libertarians. Powerful, vocal, conservative and extreme. Now look at the verbs applied to their agenda. Wish, slash, burn, force, abolish. The negativity is striking.

Language is a weapon, used to full effect here in this passage. Above and beyond this, what I find interesting about this short piece (from a much longer Guardian article) is that if we alter the loaded words highlighted above we get something like this.

Libertarians within the Republican Party want to cut government spending and return education and the control of money to the authority of the people.

This is something most libertarians on here would find little with which to disagree. Nor, presumably, would most find fault with the Guardian's argument that Romney lost because he flirted with cuts. Where we disagree, and this is the crucial point, is that victory for Obama does not imply or suggest or confirm in any way that his agenda is the correct one. Many American websites in recent days have explored the idea that democracy has run its course along de Tocqueville's suggested path - in other words, that democracy dies when the majority of voters realise that they can vote themselves rich from the common treasury. 'Richness,' of course, being a moot point to the extreme in these circumstances.

American readers should count themselves fortunate insofar as this debate still exists on their continent. It is peripheral to the point of non-existence on this side of the Atlantic. By the looks of things, however, the United States is simply one step behind the profound stupidity that has taken hold of us over here.

Our best philosopher of the last 100 years, Bertrand Russell, who incidentally was bullied mercilessly in America, as well as by narrow minded Brits, said that his greatest fear for the future was the loss of individuality. He believed the march of uniformity would be engineered by mass media stereotyping and the desire for security. In making the connection between sound money and individual freedom we are preserving to a limited degree the liberalism Russell and other foresighted thinkers saw being debased at root many decades before we were born.

I buy silver coins. They are, as TS Eliot, another colossal British libertarian said, 'fragments shored against my ruin.' There are no more great libertarians left - or more correctly, the great libertarians no longer have a thinking audience. History provides us with enough evidence of what will happen next.

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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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