Fri, Nov 2, 2012 - 11:03am

Well, that all went to shit, didn't it?

Just goes to show ya, The Turd really isn't a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. The Turd is just a regular dude, trying to do his best to educate and prepare the masses.

For now, all I know is this:

As hard as it is to believe, the metals are poised for a tremendous 2013. Currently, the algos are in charge and they are driving the paper price lower and lower, regardless of the fundamentals. The Bullion Banks openly manipulate price while the inept and corrupted CFTC looks the other way. All the while, Western physical metal is being rapidly depleted and moved into the vaults of dollar-creditor nations such as Russia, China and India.

One day soon, this will all explode in spectacular fashion and the current global financial system, based upon dollar hegemony, will be radically altered. Until then, trade at your own risk. Even I, The Great and Powerful Turd, allowed myself to be sucked back into the casino this one, last time. Turd DumDum...fool me 5 or six times, shame on me!

I'll have a new podcast for you this afternoon so please check back later today or over the weekend. I'll try to have a new, full post tomorrow morning, too. (I'd have one now but I can't print charts. I blew out all my ink trying to print off the Daily Racing Form for the Breeder's Cup. I may be an idiot but at least I have my priorities straight.)

Have a fun day and please utilize this paper nonsense to add to your physical stack.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 2, 2012 - 7:20pm
Nov 2, 2012 - 7:31pm


This fight is like a Rocky film, except we are not Drago, we are Rocky. I'm ok with this drop although i can't buy the fuckin dip I can watch as an interested spectator.

Ages ago Ivars predicted it to stay mostly flat until after the US elections. So far that is the best prediction I've seen. I'm sure the explosive moves will come but no way will i try and predict when. One thing is for sure they won't shake me out ;-)

Best advice I can think of is keep your emotions in check, don't get over elated on the up moves and don't get depressed on the down moves.

Keep stacking we are on the right side and will be vindicated

Nov 2, 2012 - 7:31pm

There must be something wrong with me

I 'm feeling calm and grounded in the midst of this ongoing 'pullback'

while everybody is all hot under the collar,as the 'market' plunges, the same rigged phony market we all understand, gets slammed down , today, the other day, the other week, the other year, doesnt matter.

I see some posting loudly how TA is rubbish and doesnt work, or at least it only works some of the time. (that part might be true, it does work sometimes. )

But I proclaimed, 3 or 4 weeks ago when the metals reached their latest intermediate top, that IF the pullback was beginning, ....

a simple standard 50 % Fib pullback, of the 1525 bottom/1800 top wave ,would pull back to the 1670 area. I saw a target around 1630 as well. Moving averages were and are around 1650 /1670 area, key pivot points and previous key price points around 1665 area..... it didnt take brilliant genius to forecast gold to fall back toward 1670/1630 area, maybe even the 1600 magnet..... and silver back to the 31.70/31 area....so thats what I said 3 or 4 weeks ago.

and that the only way it will stop falling is when the Big Billionairre/government(China,russia,? Big Buyers decide to step in and buy. I guessed around 1670-1600 area. for gold. 31.70 was showing on the silver chart but it looks like 30 is a stronger magnet, even 29.

and on the charts, it looks like a very normal pullback from the last up wave we had in late summer.

If we are in a Range zone altogether from 1500 low to 1800 top....1650 is in the middle and the bottom zone below 1600 is the buy zone.

silver at 29 and below is a buy zone.

In this picture, Technical analysis is working very well.

Timing wise, I started saying some weeks ago that the flow of time seemed to be stretching out ,dragging out the slide down ,wasting precious weeks we have left in this season, not a good sign for another rally before the year ends.

and that its possible gold and silver and miner bugs may be disappointed this season before the year ends, just like last year at this time.

I suspect, if the cartel is manipulating all this to their own purposes, then I expect we will continue to be disappointed from here thru december to see metals and miners failing to rally in the coming weeks. so as to keep us all depressed as 2012 closes.

In a range zone, you buy at the bottom and sell at the top. wont gold look great to buy at 1580 again? and silver at 28 ?

Y'all were looking to buy the break out above 36 if it happened? That is a loser gamble in this rigged market. Never buy the topside breakouts. buy the bottoms only. Does 31 silver look like a bottom now? or does 30. did 32 look like a bottom last week? will 29 or 28 be a bottom next week? will 1600 gold be the next bottom after 1650 looks like one now?

When will china step in and hold the floor?

Sometimes technical analysis does paint a clear picture . This pullback, you could see it in the charts a month ago.

It only feels shocking because they slam it down so hard in a single day. thats probably done on purpose. for the shock value.

all part of the game.

maravich44 TF
Nov 2, 2012 - 7:44pm

some old soul...

that used to come around, turned me on to this and I know that it is a hard practice for all of us, lets try anyway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rj-4t9drUlM http https://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_if.htm

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:15pm

DayStar Re: Price Suppression Rationale Post ...


Excellent post and you are correct, it doesn’t make sense. Everything you posted is dead on. BUT WHY? What is it that the TBTF know that gives them the audacity to pull this shit. They know something that us commoners do not. WHAT IS IT THAT THEY KNOW?

The further one goes down the rabbit hole the further their beliefs will be challenged but their questions will be answered. I personally believe “all” will be revealed shortly. It will put the BLACK in black swans. We are so fortunate to be alive right now in the present.

Time for another glass, California Whites Oak Cabernet Sauvignon 2005. Fabulous!

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:23pm


Glad to see ya made it thru safely.

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:29pm

Jeff Nielson lacks a basic understanding of economics.

After reading Jeff Nielson's latest rant I must conclude that he lacks a fundamental grasp of how economics really works and what exactly CAPITAL is. The following article written by Jeff Nielson (just this week) is riddled with fantastically false notions and Keynesian-pseudo-intellectual cliché. Read it for yourself:


"In other words, by any/every definition of the word; the U.S. has become steadily more “capitalist” over the past three years. Yet with three years of “economic recovery” and three years of the West’s most-extreme version of capitalism becoming yet more extreme; the net result has been a significant overall decline in well-being – and the immediate prospect of further deterioration (as indicated by the decline in ranking)." ~ Jeff Nielson

BrotherJohnF has scathing commentary on this piece by Jeff Nielson:

Forward to 15:20

Silver Update 10/31/12 Crony Capitalism
Nov 2, 2012 - 8:35pm

Judging by the COT we might go lower than 30

At least the silver COT has barely improved, still above 50k net shorts.

Don't worry, I am not bragging, I got it wrong as well.. shot pretty much all of my dry powder at 34-32$.

But, I made a resolution: I will NEVER make investment decision based on market commentary again. The cold data tells you all you need, while the hot heads on one side will always come up with any justification that it will go down, and the hot heads on the other side will always come up with arguments why it will go up.

maravich44 SaratogaPrepper
Nov 2, 2012 - 8:37pm
Nov 2, 2012 - 8:38pm

Another Month

Hellos suckers!

Another month goes by and the only thing I'm sure of is that we're still not in charge. Our gov't is corrupt from top to bottom and the bankers hold all the cards. The day when the natural economic order is restored seems to be a thing of legend right now.

WRONG WRONG WRONG - everyone all the time at this point. OK, Fitzgerald made a good call on a pullback...but the "day" ain't over yet. Nobody is right at all in my book. Davies' call for a low of $1740 was wrong wrong wrong. I also find it interesting that Turk started spouting off the past week and now look.

Turk - STFU or do something quick to get your reputation back. All the cheerleaders are beginning to look like a bunch of pump and dumpsters.

See you next month. Now back to school - Me in Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) Lab

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:40pm
maravich44 cpnscarlet
Nov 2, 2012 - 8:47pm


you should be able to make some excellent acid in that suit:no? love you with that NASA cred! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zGJ9N7c6pE

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:50pm

@road scholar

Really Road Scholar? Is that necessary? I now have what looks to be a roll of 40 Brilliant Uncirculated Silver Eagles in my pocket..... I hate when that happens!

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:52pm

Seems NO ONE knows whats

Seems NO ONE knows whats going to happen.

Today sucked for sure.

$40 down day in gold!?!?!?


Not feeding the TURD anytime soon either.

Whats the point of posting charts, promoting trading services etc...etc...

if u r consistently wrong?

Sorry...but call it like i see it.

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:54pm

What is happening

IMHO what we saw today was the shorting of Obama and by extension Mr Bernanke and the QE programme. If that's correct, we'll see short covering Monday Tuesday or (if he wins) Wednesday.

Nov 2, 2012 - 8:56pm

All the Sands in All the Seas

I really like DeVotchka. Especially this tune, it is so powerful.

Some brief lyrics:

Waiting for the drums to kick in
you want to free your earthbound limbs
I am gonna count to three
then you are leaving here with me

Are we wasting all our precious time?
Chasing dollars chasing dimes
german english japanese
all the sand in all the seas
it's all in place
it's all laid out
as we speak it's going down
Oh don't forget me
Here's the part that always gets me...

DeVotchKa "All The Sand In All The Sea" Official Music Video
Nov 2, 2012 - 8:57pm


What will she look like in 22 years??

Just A Regular Guy
Nov 2, 2012 - 9:00pm


Went thru the first page or so, lol..... so many despondents.
The markets give you an opportunity to buy cheap physical and people are moaning about the smash-down....

Just BTFD!!!!@@@

From what I have learnt / read over the last nine-months I cannot understand how gold can ever become cheaper than it is today unless there's a massive horde of it found somewhere to flood the market. The gold miners on the ASX have rallied a fair bit suggesting to me that investors see cash to be made in them in the next few years. The fundamentals for hard-assets is stronger than ever if you ask me. The main hard-asset Joe Shmoe owns here in skippy land is Real Estate, but it's so overpriced you may as well take a can of gas and just light your cash/bank-cards up.

Paper money is worthless as the EU/UK/US are all broke..... They'll print till the books balance, which wont be for at least 5 years, more realistically 10-15 years, that is of course assuming they don't have civil unrest that blows up the gubbermint whereby the gubbermint may (when finally forced) have to declare bankruptcy.

The Greece/Spain issues are heating up and the next few weeks are key for the geo-political landscape. My suggestion... BTFD!@!@!@!@$#!@# Don't move all in, but go 50% now.... and maybe 50% in a week or too, but I cannot see gold getting much cheaper from here..... Have faith, hold on, ride the bull, have strong hands!!!

And I mean physical only...


Nov 2, 2012 - 9:04pm

here it cometh

No suprise to me.if truth be told and the EE was that close to default when g was at 1800 then what did you expect.i dont think this is over yet.TURD you are the one that told us to stay out of the casino and a lot of us did.when i saw that you threw 1925.00 at the casino i shook my head. READ MY LIPS stay out of the casino u dumass.you told me to so now i am telling u.that is 56 ozs of phys.

you are not a loser you are a winner.regards:lone

Nov 2, 2012 - 9:06pm

low down

i don't think it is us stackers man.its the guys that are trading options that are getting hurt

Nov 2, 2012 - 9:06pm

from gary

Gold & Silver Shorts Ejected Posted on November 2, 2012

The precious metals risk vs. reward proposition is coming back in line and opposite its bogus situation of a month ago. Hence, the leveraged shorts against gold and silver are now history. Thank you evil cartel…

Technically, there could be a little more downside, but this is about risk vs. reward not price. On a RvR basis it is time to start getting constructive on the precious metals again. This whole game is about being opposite the true believers on either side of the coin when they puff their plumage up too much and get cocky.

One thing I have learned during this precious metals correction has been to take the profits from the short side when they are offered in abundance; and take ‘em quickly. There are always chances to re-load on rebounds if applicable. But with the current state of the precious metals, I think the bear ship has sailed as far as active shorting goes. At least it probably has sailed for me as it is time to think about buying some things people may be readying to puke.


SE MrGuboci
Nov 2, 2012 - 9:19pm

That reminds me...

If Obama wins, we can count on gold and silver rising REAL fast during his last (?) term, which would be nice because I'd like to get out of debt and say bye-bye to my part-time job. If Romney wins, then the LGBT community has an enemy on their hands. Did you know the Mormons ex-communicate their recently-outed gay members, use electric shock treatments and ice-tub treatments, and make them use their toothbrushes to clean floors and toilets? However, I can't fault them for their historic practice of saving in terms of food and supplies. That's one commonality that I have with some of them who work with me. We don't discuss relationships, but we do talk bulk food deals we find online.

lordbyroniv Road_Scholar
Nov 2, 2012 - 9:20pm

@ Submitted by Road_Scholar


Not really a fan of the outtie belly button.

SE ReachWest
Nov 2, 2012 - 9:22pm

This nonsense doesn't change

This nonsense doesn't change anything. I was kinda hoping the computers that run those algos would get flooded in Sandy. Guess not.



There are only a few goddamn things that can be done. Put together a militia and take down the financial class. Start emailing every Indian and Chinese you can find to enlist their help in buying every fucking ounce of metal. What you are doing by doing the latter is asking to either free or wipe out the Anglos of this earth. DO IT. Non-anglos, you would be doing me a favor by killing me.

As for the Day-Traders. If America collapses and the rule of law disappears (as in, the President signs the same document that Gorbachev signed in late 91, closing the final chapter on the USSR), don't EVER admit that you made a living as a day trader AFTER 2008. People out there will be so goddamn mad that they will kill anyone who sounds, acts, and looks like a member of the financial class, summarily and on the spot. Never mind if it is confessed in front of people. They will be looking for YOU. It won't matter if you truly didn't know what was coming and only knew what the schools taught you. My hands are clean, and my conscience is clear. I will be in hiding until the executions are past.

Coin shops, people!

Nov 2, 2012 - 9:38pm

Maybe soon

all the chart raders will understand you can´t use charts in manipulated markets ?

Or will it never end.

Nothing against charts... but they sort of require a fair market...

Ofc , I will get scoffed at again just like last time.

It really is a shame things are so messed up like they are...the miners are depressing..But I follow bob chapmans advice and sinclairs and sit tight..

That is what I am gonna do sit tight read turd....cause no matter crap markets, he sure knows more than I do... and I sit tight.....................................

Nov 2, 2012 - 9:40pm

Road Scholar

Naw, no thanks. She's not good enough for me. I prefer em a little taller, a little better smile, maybe a little better posture. Not critisizen, just sayin, like you know, I like em a little better is all.

Cause, ya know, I'm like perfect, a real adonnis if ya get my drift. I'm a little tired of pushin em away all the time, but if she's yer sister, er niece er sumthin, well mebbe like as a favor to you. Ya know what I mean?

An ya know, mebbe youse all shud be nicer to ol daze tradin davey boy, cuz like mebbe he jus fergot his meds today, agin.

sarc off.

Nov 2, 2012 - 9:48pm


Boring commentary tonight-

guess it comes with a big smackdown- couldn't buy tonight, unfortunately, although my mama was able to (no, I am not her tenant, nor she mine)- but I did have the foresight to sell a wee bit 'o the stack a few days back, for tax purposes. Did pretty well seeing as I bought most at the bottom (luckily). I have been screaming aloud at the top of my lungs as to what I believe to be a great buying opportunity This is!

Too bad we are given so many more buying opportunities Than nwo bux with which to purchase with-

El Gordo
Nov 2, 2012 - 9:51pm

Mr. Turd

I really enjoy reading some of those hateful e-mails that you get when things don't go as planned. I would appreciate it if you could post a few more of them, or better yet, just set up a thread for the more select readings, as I go to a couple of sites that have some real douche bags on them and I need some new material. Some of the crap you get is pretty creative and I wouldn't mind at all ripping it off. Thanks for your consideration - and I really do think it would get some hits.

Nov 2, 2012 - 9:52pm

Some recent Tweets here in NJ........

3:20: @Ashes428 Shell on Main & Jefferson St in Orange NJ has gas. ONLY Premium left! Don't drive, bring gasoline containers! 2 1/2 hr wait!!!

@Tazmaniac Citgo in Woodbridge is open - Rt 1 and Greene street #NJGas

@EclecticUnions “@tif_nee: Exxon near Union Ave in East Rutherford, Rt 17 S - open but long line up 17. #njgas” I've been in this line for 2.5 hrs so far

@csmith3128 #njgas Enrite 290 valley blvd wood ridge just got a shipment

@Punkalina #njgas 46 west mt olive before the itc crossings gas at delta stay in rt lane about an hour wait

@polinchock Yes, I first got in this line almost 7 hrs ago! They close at 6 for curfew #njgas #montclair (@ Delta Gas Station) https://4sq.com/X6DOo2

@rohitinhoboken in line at NJ TNPKE Vince Lombardi service area, ridge field has half a mile long line, moving very slow

3:15 @tuconsentida2 Got a full tank of gas at BP On French in New Brunswick but they only have Reg gas :( waited 40 minutes

@jilluary Gladpack Sunoco in peapack-gladstone is open, not too bad a line #njgas

@pandenguin Valero on 46E in Little Falls is now out of gas :( didnt evevn get to fill up after all that waiting

Hold over cpnscarlet
Nov 2, 2012 - 9:53pm

Microelectromechanical Lab

Microelectromechanical Lab tech . or Bee keeper?? YOUUUUU MAKEEEE the CALLLLL!!!

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