Fri, Nov 2, 2012 - 11:03am

Well, that all went to shit, didn't it?

Just goes to show ya, The Turd really isn't a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. The Turd is just a regular dude, trying to do his best to educate and prepare the masses.

For now, all I know is this:

As hard as it is to believe, the metals are poised for a tremendous 2013. Currently, the algos are in charge and they are driving the paper price lower and lower, regardless of the fundamentals. The Bullion Banks openly manipulate price while the inept and corrupted CFTC looks the other way. All the while, Western physical metal is being rapidly depleted and moved into the vaults of dollar-creditor nations such as Russia, China and India.

One day soon, this will all explode in spectacular fashion and the current global financial system, based upon dollar hegemony, will be radically altered. Until then, trade at your own risk. Even I, The Great and Powerful Turd, allowed myself to be sucked back into the casino this one, last time. Turd DumDum...fool me 5 or six times, shame on me!

I'll have a new podcast for you this afternoon so please check back later today or over the weekend. I'll try to have a new, full post tomorrow morning, too. (I'd have one now but I can't print charts. I blew out all my ink trying to print off the Daily Racing Form for the Breeder's Cup. I may be an idiot but at least I have my priorities straight.)

Have a fun day and please utilize this paper nonsense to add to your physical stack.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 2, 2012 - 1:14pm


Watching a real time chart of gold. Last few minutes I have seen it go from 1677 to 1684 back and forth with no prices in between. Anybody know what's happening here?

Nov 2, 2012 - 1:18pm


It's one thing to state in a cogent, polite way your point of view that may disagree with Turd or another member.

It's another to act like an ass with statements like "but a lot of people here get caught up in the "hopium" and allocate their fiat in miners or PM ETFs based on Turd's "predictions" of HEH"

In Texas, we had one word for people like you. "Sorry".

If you had bothered to read or perhaps comprehend any of TF's post regarding the downside, you would have appreciated that there is often a recommendation to hold off buying until a movement to the downside is resolved and completed. Since Turd's core recommendation is to stack physical, that is how I interpret his way to "play the downside".

You're lucky we aren't in a physical community, because I would invite you out to the back of the barn to "look at my baseball card collection", you sorry 'kick a man when he's down' assclown.


Nov 2, 2012 - 1:20pm

The EE are just like a Mississippi leg hound

There will not be a bottom until they finish, so just let them Finish!

Mississippi Leg Hound - Christmas Vacation
Nov 2, 2012 - 1:20pm


I think you are right. Total pre-election bullshit. TPTB have signaled Obama the winner. Gas prices down, stock market safe, jobs up, unemployment down, almost all economic data positive, dollar strong, gold/silver down, inflation down.

It's obvious to me it's four more years. Dollar price of stacks will continue up overnight Tuesday, November 6.


Nov 2, 2012 - 1:21pm

so turd what do

you see as the next line in da sand for gold? $1500 or $1520 ?

Nov 2, 2012 - 1:23pm


Texpat... you are comparing apples to oranges. I find it quite interesting that you stated that "MINING COSTS AREN'T MUCH OF A FACTOR".

First, you argue the LABOR THEORY OF VALUE is discredited by giving an example of Natural Gas. The price of natural gas throughout the rest of the world is tied to the price of oil. The only place on the planet that this ratio has been destroyed, is in the United States.

The reason for that is the new SHALE-GAS-WALL STREET-TREADMILL. The only way for shale gas production to increase is by massive continued drilling. However, this also is being done well below COST OF PRODUCTION. The only reason why it is being allowed to continued (heavens knows free market fundamentals would have killed it a year or two ago), is due to the WALL STREET TREADMILL.

Wall Street is making huge profits from deals. Furthermore, Wall Street is on the hook if they stop. It's like a drug. The price of natural gas has fallen well below the BREAK EVEN point for the shale gas players due to this relationship with Wall Street. It will not continue.

The major oil companies are AWASH in MONEY... but not the SHALE GAS& OIL PLAYERS... they have DEBT up to their eyeballs. If we look at this chart done by Rune Likvern, we see that the Shale oil players in the BAKKEN have over a $14 billion cumulative negative cash flow. They have been kept alive by the WALL STREET BLOOD TRANSFUSIONS.

To keep the SHALE GAS FACADE going, Wall Street and the Top Shale Gas Players did a neat trick by drilling a few exploratory wells in a field then assigned huge reserves to that field... while knowing they were COMPLETE DOGS. They took these DOGS and pawned them off to other larger SLOBS like BP & BHP Billiton and many others.

Thus, they took this money and used it as CAPEX spending to keep drilling which allowed these shale gas players from going under and which kept the shale gas treadmill going.... by increasing production and killing the price further. This is a U.S. anomaly only. The rest of the world wouldn't be this stupid.

In the first half of 2012, there were $8 billion impairment charges written down by these supposed GREAT SHALE GAS DEALS OF 2011. Let me tell you:


Supply and demand factors create price. However, manipulation has destroyed both the reality of true costs and the true price.

The market is not that stupid to realize that PRICES can not go below production costs that long or yes, supply will vanish. Again, I don't write or talk about timelines in the LIFESPAN OF A GNAT... I am old fashion and look at it in a medium and longer time frame.

Lastly... this statement came from the World Gold Council Executive Council:

Gold miners need $3,000 price in five years - gold council

* Mining costs increasing steeply

* Emerging markets, central banks to drive demand

LIMA May 14 (Reuters) - Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable, World Gold Council chief executive Aram Shishmanian said on Monday.

Miners currently needed a gold price of $1,300 to survive, Shishmanian said, but faced steep rises in mining costs, along with the cost of dividends and host nation taxes.

"If this continues for the next five years the gold price needs to be at least $3,000 just to stay in the business," he said. However, he was optimistic sustained demand would drive prices higher over the long term.


Costs due play a role in the PRICE mechanism... when we factor in SUPPLY & DEMAND.

Again, I don't look at the price change in short term... but medium to long term.

Nov 2, 2012 - 1:25pm

Anyone paying attention to

Anyone paying attention to the dollar index? 200 dma is close now. Will we see a reversal there?

department of truth
Nov 2, 2012 - 1:25pm

corruption trumps charts

I am shocked, shocked that the price of gold and silver continue to be manipulated! . . . Not.

The US govt not only allows the manipulation, it supports it. The endless naked shorts are not only allowed, they are encouraged. The price of precious metals has to be suppressed as part of the complex formula needed to maintain zero percent rates, bond fraud, and confidence in fiat currencies.

So, you can look at fundamentals and charts all you want, but what counts the most is corruption, endless corruption. Those who own the printing press can, at least in the short term, manipulate and buy anything in any quantity they want (including political leaders and security agencies). They may use the charts and systems that people buy into as a way to enhance their manipulation . . . but the most important "fundamental" here is Fascism, my friends.

When the petrodollar loses its petro, i.e. when the dollar is no longer the global reserve currency by virtue of the fact that it must be used to purchase OPEC oil, THEN things will change. But who knows when that will happen? Not a good idea to bet on it with short-term options . . . .

Day Tradin' DaveHrunner
Nov 2, 2012 - 1:25pm

OK H- you're a tough guy. I get it. (BB cards notwithstanding)

But Turd had led a whole lot of dumb folks off the cliff with his predictions. Not to mention his juevenile references to Blythe and the EE- which I'm sure is a HUGE source of amusement at "the morgue"

So I thank Turd for his free charts, but he's a whole lot of off the mark, both with his predictions and his securities laws compliance in the way he markets his "services"

Nov 2, 2012 - 1:26pm



Oh Shit - somebody got there ahead of me.

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