November Begins

Thu, Nov 1, 2012 - 11:41am

As anticipated, the shorts are putting up a fight, desperately attempting to resist the next thrust higher. However, fear not. They are on the wrong side of the trade. As Drago says: "You will lose".

Drago: You Will Lose

Please keep in mind what I have been preaching for almost two weeks:

  • This pullback is almost identical to the pullback of January 2011.
  • Once a bottom a found, a volatile consolidation takes place.
  • The paper spec shorts, just recently drawn into the trade, will initially fight the rally by "throwing good money after bad" in a desperate attempt to protect buy-stops and re-ignite downside momentum.
  • The initial resistance is $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver.
  • The next resistance is $1730-36 in gold and $32.50-60 in silver.
  • Once that level is cleared, even Helen Keller can see and hear the bottom. Gold will move toward $1755 and silver will advance upon $33.35.

The main thing you want to avoid is frustration and lack of patience. Give this process some time. Tomorrow's BLSBS may provide the impetus for the short-covering to begin in earnest. It also might not. Whatever. Just be long and strong. The metals are headed much, much higher from here.

Let's continue to lead with silver as it is clear that silver is currently leading gold, at least from a chart-advancement perspective. This is mainly due to the strong hands that are accumulating silver, not just in physical form in London but paper form in NY. This accumulation is increasing the pressure upon the shorts with each passing hour.

And, again, let not your heart be troubled by gold. The harder the shorts work to build a line of defense, the more violent the eventual short-covering spike will be.

OK, what else is there to discuss today? Well, there's this new gem from Jim Quinn on the Keynesian fallacy that storm damage is good for GDP growth.

Speaking of Sandy, we are now wrapping up the "First 72 Hours". The reason that I have "" marks around that term is that that is the title of a seminal study done by a renowned psychologist/sociologist a few years ago. If so inclined, you can read the entire paper here: In summary, it goes something like this:

  • The first 24 hours are shock and disbelief.
  • The next 24 hours are realization marked with determination and hope.
  • After the next 24 hours, panic and mayhem can set in as those affected by the disaster begin to clamor for food, shelter, fuel, warmth etc.

To that end, here we go: & &

My point is this: Watch this deterioration very closely over the next few days. If things begin to get out of hand, the negative publicity for the federal government could have a rather dramatic impact on late-deciding voters. In this case, it's pretty tough to hang it all on Romney. Obama will get the blame, deservedly or not.

To that end, I'm still getting questions about the impact of a Romney victory on metals prices. Let me state this a different way from yesterday:


Moving on, The Doc recorded and posted this interview with our pal, Ned, yesterday. Nothing earth-shattering but be sure to listen to the entire thing as plenty of relevant topics are discussed. Ponder, too, the topics mentioned toward the end of the podcast. When will we reach a point of "critical mass" where countries around the world suddenly rush to reclaim their gold before the imposition of a new, gold-based international trade settlement system? Next week? Next month? Next year? Hard to say but that point is definitely coming. Soon.

Ned Naylor-Leyland: Gold Reserves at the BOE or NY Fed? No Chance of Getting Out With Any Metal!

Lastly, today is the first day of November and this is significant, mainly because of this: Back in July and again in August, ole Thunderlips promised us resolution to the four-year silver investigation. He publicly stated that he expected this in "September or October".

Well, it's November now and...still...nothing. If you have a few moments, perhaps you should politely nudge Commissioner Chilton and ask him what the holdup is. The CFTC itself issues all of the information that is so obviously indicative of concentration and manipulation, yet they dawdle. Has anything new come to light recently? Some 11th-hour-type proof of guilt or innocence that is delaying the verdict? I'd be interested to know. Anyone wanting to contact The Mullet can do so by emailing him at bchilton[at]cftc[dot]gov. If you hear anything back from him, please feel free to post his reply in the comments section of this thread. (And again, I ask you to be polite. I know for a fact that he receives plenty of emails but that he only takes seriously those who pose serious questions.)

Have a fun day. Don't get too stressed about today's Comex action. The "positive economic news" and resultant rally in The Pig is simply being gamed by the HFTs and algos. The real fun will come tomorrow with the reaction to the BLSBS.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 1, 2012 - 12:04pm

I buy these all the time

Good recap, but.....not Buffalo nickels, Jefferson nickels 1942 to 1945 (35% silver).



Nov 1, 2012 - 12:05pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Dr G
Nov 1, 2012 - 12:07pm

All of us (yes, really all of

All of us (yes, really all of us), are about 3 meals away from complete unrest. There are very few things that the most logical and level-headed among us wouldn't do in order to secure food for their children after missing 3 meals.

It is what it is. Be prepared.

The Watchman
Nov 1, 2012 - 12:08pm

SLW and MINERS=showing strength

Very good sign for Silver price-SLW touching $41.00.

Southern Cross
Nov 1, 2012 - 12:09pm

1,000 ounce silver bars

Yesterday, I posted asking readers why retail 1,000 ounce silver bars are now much harder to come by. No one seemed to provide a knowledgable answer. Does anyone know why 3 years ago 1,000 ounce silver bars were everywhere for sale and today they are almost nonexistent? Some retailors seem to sell them in IRA's but not directly.

If you look at retail silver right now, 100 ounce silver bar availability is about what 1,000 ounce silver bar was 3 years ago. Why is this? Is this due to physical scarcity? Shipping difficulty? Demand? Anyone know the REAL reason?

Thanks in advance for any reply.

Nov 1, 2012 - 12:11pm

personaly seen

a fist fight over the last grocery cart in '99 [hurricane floyd]

and for those of you that think govmint knows best----- I10 was a parking lot westerly ..........while the eastbound lanes were deserted.........and they gave tickets to those who u-turned the grass median.

"if government ran the sahara desert they would be out of sand in 3 years"

Milton Friedman

Nov 1, 2012 - 12:14pm

Get ready for a "HOT AND



Nov 1, 2012 - 12:21pm

1000 oz bars

are hard to find because the CME needs every single one that exists. and they don't (exist).

SLW is strong like bull

Stocks were strong in Zimbabwe, too.

The Keynesian experiment won't get destroyed overnight. Lighten up Francis.

Speaking of stocks, Seagate is trading at a trailing PE of 4, pays over 4% div yield, and Orwel is its largest customer, funnelling scads of fiat their way.

If you are going to get your 4th amend stolen, might as well make some dinero on it.

Nov 1, 2012 - 12:21pm

It worked so well last week with CA

Jobless claims fall, but missing data due to storm

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign the labor market's slow recovery was gaining traction.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 363,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was below the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 370,000.

An analyst from the department said New Jersey and Washington, D.C., did not turn in data due to the mammoth storm Sandy, which hit the Northeast earlier this week. The Labor Department estimated results for the state and for the nation's capital.

Economists have said the storm could lead to volatility in jobless claims over the coming weeks.


Businesses created 158,000 jobs in Oct.: private report

NEW YORK - U.S. companies added 158,000 jobs in October, data from a payrolls processor showed on Thursday in a revamped report on the private sector labor market.

The historical data for the ADP National Employment Report was revised as part of the new methodology, which was used for the first time in the October report. September's increase has halved to 88,200 new jobs from an initially reported 162,000.

Economists had forecast October's report would show a gain of 135,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll.

Separately, the number of planned layoffs by firms jumped 41.1 percent in October to the highest level in five months, although the number includes more than 10,000 jobs in U.S.-owned auto plants in Europe, a report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., said.

Employers announced 47,724 planned job cuts last month, up from September's 33,816, according to the report. It was the highest level since May.

[Harvey called for a raid last night stating wither thrus or fri. Not sure if this is the impetus, but when the BLSBS comes out tomorrow we now have a pretty good idea what to expect. Personally I expect more shenanigans]

Nov 1, 2012 - 12:23pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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