November Begins

149
Thu, Nov 1, 2012 - 11:41am

As anticipated, the shorts are putting up a fight, desperately attempting to resist the next thrust higher. However, fear not. They are on the wrong side of the trade. As Drago says: "You will lose".

Drago: You Will Lose

Please keep in mind what I have been preaching for almost two weeks:

  • This pullback is almost identical to the pullback of January 2011.
  • Once a bottom a found, a volatile consolidation takes place.
  • The paper spec shorts, just recently drawn into the trade, will initially fight the rally by "throwing good money after bad" in a desperate attempt to protect buy-stops and re-ignite downside momentum.
  • The initial resistance is $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver.
  • The next resistance is $1730-36 in gold and $32.50-60 in silver.
  • Once that level is cleared, even Helen Keller can see and hear the bottom. Gold will move toward $1755 and silver will advance upon $33.35.

The main thing you want to avoid is frustration and lack of patience. Give this process some time. Tomorrow's BLSBS may provide the impetus for the short-covering to begin in earnest. It also might not. Whatever. Just be long and strong. The metals are headed much, much higher from here.

Let's continue to lead with silver as it is clear that silver is currently leading gold, at least from a chart-advancement perspective. This is mainly due to the strong hands that are accumulating silver, not just in physical form in London but paper form in NY. This accumulation is increasing the pressure upon the shorts with each passing hour.

And, again, let not your heart be troubled by gold. The harder the shorts work to build a line of defense, the more violent the eventual short-covering spike will be.

OK, what else is there to discuss today? Well, there's this new gem from Jim Quinn on the Keynesian fallacy that storm damage is good for GDP growth. https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=43305

Speaking of Sandy, we are now wrapping up the "First 72 Hours". The reason that I have "" marks around that term is that that is the title of a seminal study done by a renowned psychologist/sociologist a few years ago. If so inclined, you can read the entire paper here: https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/emergency_response/common_misconceptions.pdf. In summary, it goes something like this:

  • The first 24 hours are shock and disbelief.
  • The next 24 hours are realization marked with determination and hope.
  • After the next 24 hours, panic and mayhem can set in as those affected by the disaster begin to clamor for food, shelter, fuel, warmth etc.

To that end, here we go: https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/gas-pains-pumps-dry-lines-long-new-york-article-1.1195237 & https://news.yahoo.com/tempers-flare-nj-city-where-thousands-stranded-171518266.html & https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/brooklyn/looters-target-coney-island-sandy-article-1.1195080

My point is this: Watch this deterioration very closely over the next few days. If things begin to get out of hand, the negative publicity for the federal government could have a rather dramatic impact on late-deciding voters. In this case, it's pretty tough to hang it all on Romney. Obama will get the blame, deservedly or not.

To that end, I'm still getting questions about the impact of a Romney victory on metals prices. Let me state this a different way from yesterday:

DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THE OBVIOUS PLANTING OF MISINFORMATION IN THE MEDIA. ADDITIONALLY, SOME WOULD HAVE YOU BELIEVE THE QUANTITATIVE EASING IS SIMPLY AN ECONOMIC STIMULUS PLAN/EXPERIMENT, HATCHED BY THE EVIL BERNANK. AGAIN, PLEASE NEVER FORGET THAT QE IS ABOUT FUNDING THE ONGOING FEDERAL DEFICIT AT EXTRAORDINARILY LOW RATES IN A DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO PERPETUATE THE GREAT PONZI. ROMNEY AND RYAN CAN TALK A GOOD GAME BUT THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO IMPOSE "AUSTERITY" AND THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STOP QE. PERIOD. END OF STORY.

Moving on, The Doc recorded and posted this interview with our pal, Ned, yesterday. Nothing earth-shattering but be sure to listen to the entire thing as plenty of relevant topics are discussed. Ponder, too, the topics mentioned toward the end of the podcast. When will we reach a point of "critical mass" where countries around the world suddenly rush to reclaim their gold before the imposition of a new, gold-based international trade settlement system? Next week? Next month? Next year? Hard to say but that point is definitely coming. Soon.

Ned Naylor-Leyland: Gold Reserves at the BOE or NY Fed? No Chance of Getting Out With Any Metal!

Lastly, today is the first day of November and this is significant, mainly because of this: Back in July and again in August, ole Thunderlips promised us resolution to the four-year silver investigation. He publicly stated that he expected this in "September or October". https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/cftc-s-chilton-sees-silver-probe-concluding-this-year.html

Well, it's November now and...still...nothing. If you have a few moments, perhaps you should politely nudge Commissioner Chilton and ask him what the holdup is. The CFTC itself issues all of the information that is so obviously indicative of concentration and manipulation, yet they dawdle. Has anything new come to light recently? Some 11th-hour-type proof of guilt or innocence that is delaying the verdict? I'd be interested to know. Anyone wanting to contact The Mullet can do so by emailing him at bchilton[at]cftc[dot]gov. If you hear anything back from him, please feel free to post his reply in the comments section of this thread. (And again, I ask you to be polite. I know for a fact that he receives plenty of emails but that he only takes seriously those who pose serious questions.)

Have a fun day. Don't get too stressed about today's Comex action. The "positive economic news" and resultant rally in The Pig is simply being gamed by the HFTs and algos. The real fun will come tomorrow with the reaction to the BLSBS.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  149 Comments

Colonel Angus
Nov 1, 2012 - 11:45am

Better line for Blythe and Jamie...

I must break you

Out doing my part by buying the phyzzzz

Gramp
Nov 1, 2012 - 11:46am

Just read the Entire post... 

Just read the Entire post... wonder what # I hit here...

Thanks TF!

The Watchman
Nov 1, 2012 - 11:48am
Money By Trading
Nov 1, 2012 - 11:48am

The Gold Bull in 3 Charts

November is also gold's strongest month since this bull began in 2001.

Onto the charts....

https://wp.me/p2CT0a-6U

Istack
Nov 1, 2012 - 11:51am

I buy these all the time

Are Mercury Dimes Really Made of Silver?

Absolutely! U.S. "Silver" coins minted before 1965 actually contained quite a bit of silver. That means that silver dollars, half dollars, quarters, and dimes all have silver content in them. The Mercury Dime is 90% silver, 10% Copper. During World War II there was a shortage of the metal nickel, so the US Mint made 1943 Buffalo Nickels from silver as well.

A Mercury Dime contains 0.0723 troy ounces of silver. That means that if you wanted to sell the coin to someone who would melt the coin down for its metal value you could earn about $2.33 (coinflation.com) I figure when silver gets to $1000 an oz each dime will be worth around $75. I dream big.
Nov 1, 2012 - 11:57am
thecoloredsky
Nov 1, 2012 - 11:59am
harlan07
Nov 1, 2012 - 12:01pm

72 hrs

I can vouch for things starting to break down about 72 hrs after a storm. People who are otherwise orderly and law abiding get desperate pretty quickly after a major storm. I've seen it several times. Most people just simply aren't prepared for life without trips to supermarket when the fridge is empty. Katrina was a good dry-run for if the thin veneer of law and order is peeled back in an economic collapse. When someone got shot over a bag of ice i knew it was time to stay inside until things calmed down. Aren't firearms banned in NYC? No way I would want to be up there during this without one.

Dr G
Nov 1, 2012 - 12:03pm

Good post. Silver leading

Good post. Silver leading gold, that's for sure. And I also find it very interesting.

Turd's initial resistance of 32.25 is holding as good support thus far. It's done so multiple times already today. Me likey.

Oh, and I thought I would add: Winter is coming.

Groanerthecoloredsky
Nov 1, 2012 - 12:04pm

I dont think us slaves get

I dont think us slaves get lunch anymore do we?

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