Back To Business

Tue, Oct 30, 2012 - 3:38pm

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so.

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.

Video unavailable

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 30, 2012 - 6:19pm


Yaaaa Hoooo

Oh Not, my bad.......

Oct 30, 2012 - 6:24pm

BLSBS, now with extra BS

We all remember that the last time the feds got a holiday there was no unemployment report for the week. We are all aware of the inaccuracies in the last report. This one certainly has the potential to make an impact in the prez election, and if the numbers are wrong again there is nothing that anyone can do to fix it before election time. Anyone care to put forward their ideas on what the numbers will show, if released?

Labor Department May Delay Jobs Report (UPDATE)

Sept. jobless rates down over the year in 345 of 372 metro areas; payroll jobs up in 267

Oct 30, 2012 - 6:51pm

@ be prepared

I hear your plight. Sometimes, I feel the same way. Like there is no hope for the future.

However, if we can build community at a local level--your family or neighborhood for starters, then there is hope. But, it is not easy. My best friends still think I'm over the edge, but they pay some attention now when I bring some of the crazy $hit into context of what I've told them in the past.

There will come a tipping point; it won't take a preponderance of the people, but maybe 10% to overturn the unconstitutional, immoral, and illegitimate actions of our government. The government has spawned all the horrors we have in our midst today. The bankers of course aided and abetted, but the pols' overweening pride, greed, and feeling of being above the law is what got us here over 30-40 years. Eisenhower warned us in his farewell address, and he was absolutely spot-on.

The $43 trillion lawsuit, which article put up may have gotten a CNBC exec's children killed is a big movement, I think, of getting closer to the tipping point. I have to hand it to that lead attorney: he hit the nail on the head when he described the outrageousness of the leading pols and slimey government cronyism we have today.

I doubt we'll ever see a penny back from the slime that took the $43 trillion, but many nore people are being wakened to the BS every day.

So, I hope, and prep. I will be happy to help others, but also to protect from the low-lives that will also be on the same take as the banksters, albeit on a smaller, more dangerous level.

You may have heard that it is always darkest just before the dawn. I do think it is going to get worse before it gets better--it must. As someone else here at TF posted the other day, and as Turd has intimated, we won't be able to fix the grotesque monster our financial world has become. It must destroy itself, so we can start over. Gold and silver will take their rightful place again, though it may take months, even years to be re-established in full.

I wish you well, and hope you'll be encouraged if only a little.

Oct 30, 2012 - 7:08pm

Saudi Arabia Funding Mossad?

Saudi Arabia Funding Mossad Anti-Iran Operations

“A Strange Alliance: Are the Saudis Bankrolling Israel’s Mossad?” appears on his blog. Lando’s source is named only as “a friend, with good sources in the Israeli government.” He wrote, “The head of Israel’s Mossad has made several trips to deal with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia-one of the results: an agreement that the Saudis would bankroll the series of assassinations of several of Iran’s top nuclear experts that have occurred over the past couple of years.

Read More
Mr. Fix
Oct 30, 2012 - 7:13pm

Back to work,

The phone will not stop ringing,

More than I can handle by my self.

I just got REALLY expensive .

My stack will be bigger next week.

I Pads suck.

Back to work.

Oct 30, 2012 - 7:13pm

CFTC Silver Manipulation Report (crickets...)

October 23, 2012

CFTC Meeting Scheduled for October 25, 2012, Has Been Cancelled

Washington, DC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s open meeting scheduled for Thursday, October 25, 2012, has been cancelled.

Last Updated: October 23, 2012

Not sure if this was posted when it occurred. Not like there is anything pressing that they are working on. /sarcasm


old tradesman Anonymous
Oct 30, 2012 - 7:18pm
Oct 30, 2012 - 7:19pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Oct 30, 2012 - 7:38pm

Any goldbugs out there interested in lots of data?

This is some excellent research to see how truly rare a 1 million oz+ gold deposit is. See the full 30 page report here.


Following on the success of last year’s report we've decided to make the ranking of the world’s gold deposits an annual endeavor highlighting trends in future mine supply, depletion, discoveries, and in-situ grades.

As far as we know, there has not been a similar effort to compile a comprehensive database of the world’s gold mines and deposits. Nevertheless, we rose to the laborious challenge as we knew that the industry reliance on risk capital via public markets presented an opportunity to data mine regulatory filings which would result in a high quality database.

With this research our goal was to provide quantitative answers to some of the questions we kept asking ourselves as investors in the space. Questions such as:

How many ounces of in-situ gold exist?

How many gold mines exist in Canada?

How rare is a 1.0 million ounce undeveloped deposit?

The report answers these questions and more while providing insight into the scarcity of mines & deposits. Additionally, having a granular view of the supply mix is useful as it allows market participants to ascertain the long-term supply and demand fundamentals of the metal.

We have made some important changes this year to the methodology of the database adding grade, tonnage, and government owned mines/deposits. We also partnered with Visual Capitalists, an investor website that provides rich visual content, to assist in visualizing the data we compiled.

Oct 30, 2012 - 7:39pm
Oct 30, 2012 - 7:43pm

via SilverDoctors


Just thought it was interesting that this is starting to happen in certain countries. I'm sure this type of thing pisses the Bernank off, lol.

Oct 30, 2012 - 7:46pm

Benghazi update

Bracken: Did Obama Withhold Cross-Border Authority?

I am trying as hard as I can to get out the word about cross-border authority (CBA).

I just can’t believe reporters don’t know enough to ask the right questions! It’s infuriating.

Libya, as far as standing down the rescue, is 100% Obama’s show, and nobody else’s. Only he can grant CBA, not Biden, not Panetta, not Dempsey, not Hillary, and certainly not Ham in Germany.

The entire episode is explained perfectly inside the context of not granting CBA. The CIA QRF in Tripoli? No problem, send them on the local Tripoli station chief’s say-so. He merely informs up COC that he has done so. CCs them so to speak. “This is what I am doing.” Ditto if Predators were in country, no problem using them.


Please Help Admiral Gaouette and General Ham !!

I dont know how many of you have been keeping up with the news about Admiral Gaouette and General Ham but here is the long and short of it. General Ham has stated publicly that he NEVER recieved an order from anyone to assist those in Benghazi, Libya even though the President states that that was his order . Here is a link to the video. Please read the entire article if you have not already


Obama Fires Top Admiral as Coup Plot Fears Grow


Obama's dangerous emasculating of our military

Exclusive: Gen. Patrick Brady asks, 'Would I want this man with me in combat?'

Oct 30, 2012 - 7:47pm

SILVER MINING / Making Doré Bars

Latest episode of "How It's Made" featured a segment on silver mining. The mining company was clearly shown, and was First Majestic Corp. of Canada (their active mines are in Mexico, however). Their refined bullion bars are shown at the beginning, but the segment focuses on the mining and silver extraction process.

SILVER MINING / Making Doré Bars - Discovery Channel
Oct 30, 2012 - 7:49pm

The Silver Series: The History of Silver (Part 1)

The Silver Series: The History of Silver (Part 1)

Today, silver has thousands of modern industrial uses and is considered a store of wealth. However, the story of this legendary precious metal begins with its use by ancient civilizations.

Silver has many attributes that made it so valuable to early peoples. It is malleable, ductile, lustrous, resilient, antibacterial, and rare. It was used to purify water and for ornate artwork – but more importantly it was perfectly suited to be a currency.

For over two thousand years, silver was used everywhere from Ancient Greece to the Spanish Empire as currency.

By 1967, all silver coins were removed from circulation in the US. And although no longer used, silver is the most widely used material for coinage in history.

Be Prepared
Oct 30, 2012 - 7:56pm

@ancientmoney - Words of Encouragement....

This community is always the greatest. I appreciate you reaching out... and I agree... it will get worse before it gets better. This machine will suck a lot from us for a longer period of time than most of us may be able to hold out.... I, like you, try to focus on keeping my goals in front of me and try to make a difference wherever I can... and, yes, you were definitely encouraging... :-)

The Watchman
Oct 30, 2012 - 7:59pm


Mystery of Russian ship missing with 700 tons of gold ore By The Associated Press

MOSCOW -- A vessel with a nine-person crew and 700 tons of gold ore onboard went missing in stormy seas off Russia's Pacific Coast.

The ship sent a distress call on Sunday as it was sailing from the coastal town of Neran to Feklistov Island in the Sea of Okhotsk, The Associated Press reported.

The vessel, hired by mining company Polymetal, was carrying 700 tons of gold ore from one deposit to another where it was to be processed. Gold ore is the material from which gold is extracted and contains only a small percentage of the precious metal.

Polymetal's spokesman on Monday would not estimate the value of the cargo.

The company said it has shipped ore via that route before, and there was nothing unusual in shipping it by the sea, AP said.

Oct 30, 2012 - 8:37pm

Santa says...

Gold Confiscation Rumor Control

October 30, 2012, at 6:20 pm by Jim Sinclair in the category

My Dear Extended Family,

This is major rumor control that I feel you must understand if you are to know gold.

I am sick of all this confiscation talk of gold and even gold companies. It emanates from gold people who do not know or understand the history of gold. We condemn MSM for inaccurate, false and misleading news. I condemn gold writers who practice sensationalism, who offer their opinions as if they were facts and simply make things up out of thin air as if they were insiders privy to things that no one else is. Right now leaders of this community are printing stuff as misleading as MOPE or MSM ever have.

Apparently the Scottish hedge fund manager Hendrey, who is by his own admission "short some gold shares," is warning about confiscation without remuneration of gold companies above gold $3000. Either he has never studied gold history, or totally misunderstood its role in the 1930s.

Eric De Groot put what I have been trying to teach you perfectly today. In the 1930s gold was to the monetary system what QE is today, a means of increasing the supply of money for Fed and Treasury discretionary use. The US Secretary of the Treasury and President Roosevelt set the gold price higher at their daily breakfast together arbitrarily. Higher because to create money then the system required a higher value of gold to have more money outstanding. This is why Roosevelt ordered the confiscation of gold in order to unfold his type of monetary stimulation, his QE. This is what confiscationophiles simply do not know.

Your fears and the outrageous untrue statement by the Scottish hedge fund manager are based on totally wrong reasoning and misunderstanding. Gold was not confiscated because it was going up in price. Gold’s order of confiscation came as a tool of monetary stimulation in order to create monetary creation in order to attempt to increase employment. The order of gold confiscation had nothing whatsoever to do with punishment of the gold holders. It preceded the then big run up in the gold price. Believers in confiscation, because they are incorrect on its basis, are totally wrong in predicting it. Those that predict confiscation of anything gold love sensationalism and benefit somehow from scaring the dickens out of you unnecessarily.

Gold companies will not be confiscated any more than oil companies were when oil traded at $145. You think this is some sort of punishment for profit? You are thereby fearing something that simply will not happen. You are like an Apple stockholder fearing that the government will confiscate their company because of the popularity of the iPhone.

I am sorry to see how gullible some of you can be. If you assume fund manager Hendrey was well meaning in his statement then he disqualifies himself from an understanding of gold’s roll historically in monetary science. That then disqualifies his position actually published in this community. Any source that published Hendrey’s false confiscation Dogma statement without this clarification is demonstrating the writer’s ignorance of gold and its purpose in the 1930s. If you do not understand what gold was then you will never understand the new role that gold will play.

In terms of rumor control, Turkey has not remonetized gold by giving it Tier 1 status as an asset. Nobody can state as fact the condition of the gold deposits at the NY Fed or Fort Knox. You can speculate on what has occurred but what I hear being said so far is gold MOPE and gold MSM.

Please, my friends, keep your feet on the ground. Fund Manager Hendrey is totally correct on the gold price at $3000. I might add at $3000 plus.


Oct 30, 2012 - 8:43pm
Oct 30, 2012 - 8:53pm
Oct 30, 2012 - 9:31pm

Harvey's Up!

The NY Stock Exchange is underwater, the Turkish banks are wooing Turkish retail gold, German safe deposit boxes to be government registered, Japanese QE backfires, John Embry says Eastern banks love JPM, and Romeny bad for gold? All this and more on the Harvey Report:


Oct 30, 2012 - 9:52pm

The Cult of Personality

"When the mirror speaks, the reflection lies"


"I saw the things you need to be, I'm the smiling face of your TV

....I exploit you, still you love me

I tell you one and one makes three"


Some great lines from this late 80's band (and a goddamn great singer and guitarist).

Ok, I wouldn't have put JFK in the same sentence as Mussolini myself, or Stalin and Ghandi, lol, but there's some real truth in these lyrics...

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:10pm

Here's one for ya

Try this on for size:

"KosherDakota says monetary policy too tight"

"Given how high unemployment is expected to remain over the next few years, these inflation forecasts suggest that monetary policy is, if anything, too tight, not too easy," he said.

Kocherlakota, who as recently as six months ago called for monetary tightening by the end of the year, last month shocked global markets by urging the Fed to keep rates low until unemployment falls to 5.5 percent, a level widely equated with full employment.

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:11pm

Clearing the path for global currency: Yuan

Clearing the path for global currency

Updated: 2012-10-31 07:47

By Diao Ying in London (China Daily)

Report highlights ways to boost renminbi's international role

A more efficient system should be in place to facilitate the increasingly wide use of the yuan in global transactions, according to a report by SWIFT, the communication platform among international banks.

Global use of the currency has surged. In August the renminbi rose to 14th in the table of payment currencies, up from 35th in October 2010, according to a report by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.

Most other currencies remained flat or moved marginally during that period.

Trade finance is the primary driver behind the rise. Paying in yuan means domestic companies will get lower borrowing costs and reduce foreign exchange risks.

In addition, the report said, some Chinese buyers and suppliers prefer the currency.

Related reading: Yuan exchange rate seen stable next year

The People's Bank of China estimates that overseas importers can save 2 to 3 percent on their invoice bills by paying in yuan.

"Currency appreciation or depreciation might be irrelevant", in the rise in the yuan's international use, the report said.

Yuan-denominated trade accounted for about 10 percent of China's total foreign trade in July, the report said.

In the meantime, the currency's use has moved into a new stage, said Patrick de Courcy, head of markets, Asia-Pacific, for the organization.

He said the path of the yuan's further internationalization will involve three phases: trade finance, investment and as a reserve currency.

However, the increasing use of the yuan poses challenges. Banks said that offshore yuan clearing is appropriate, the report said, but in the long term, improvement is needed.

"The existing arrangement for offshore renminbi clearing has served the industry well, to date. In the medium to long term, however, it is important that we have an enhanced platform," De Courcy said.

The primary goal of a future yuan clearing system should support the need for seamless routing of the yuan within China and around the world. A typical payment in US dollars can be settled within seconds, while settling in yuan takes much longer.

Offshore yuan clearing can take two routes. The first sees the transaction go through either the designated clearing bank, Bank of China in Hong Kong. The second route goes directly to a yuan agent bank on the mainland.

Bank of China (Hong Kong) processes about 80 percent of offshore renminbi transactions.

It has extended its operating hours since June to facilitate businesses in other time zones. But the foreign exchange market in Hong Kong closes at 5 pm, preventing European markets from trading with it overnight.

The second route takes about 20 percent of the yuan clearing volume, in which cash can only be withdrawn from the People's Bank of China at 9 am the next day.

The greatest obstacles for European companies hoping to use the yuan are the slow payment process and difficulties in obtaining approval for payments from authorities, according to a recent survey by the Deutsche Bank.

In a separate development, a research report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics said cross-border trade in yuan will triple to $1.03 trillion in three years.

The report agreed that the renminbi has been moving closer to becoming a global reserve currency.
It noted that seven out of 10 major economies surrounding the Chinese mainland were tracking the yuan more closely than they do the US dollar, including South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

Only three economies, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Mongolia, still have their currencies following the US dollar more closely than the yuan....

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:15pm

If there's a woman in your life that's importnt to you read this

Under Obamacare regulations women now only have a PAP smear covered every three years. In case you aren’t a woman, which the president isn’t, by the way, PAP smears are generally—were generally—part of an annual well-woman exam. However, after Obamacare passed, new cervical cancer screening guidelines were released and suddenly because of that, after years of annual coverage, women are now reporting going for a PAP smear and having it denied as part of their covered exam.

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:20pm

Kumbaya Komrades !

Donation time .... let's take up a collection for the poor posters ! For every ounce of silver donated to me .... I'll donate $15 in fiat to the Turd ! I'll even put it in writing ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Warm And Fuzzy Glow World Tour

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:21pm

My post election guess...

...would be that in December the Fed makes another move and adds between $15-25 bln more a month on top of the already $85 bln already happening.

There is no shortage of reasons they could come up with and this hurricane damage in of itself will allow them to inject tens of billions (if not a hundred bln) into the pipeline in some manner and with reasonable cause.

I think the Fed will make some type of asset purchase move post-election in December or they'll strongly imply of an upcoming one after the New Year.

Words are free and Ben's will move the market (PM's) in December.

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:22pm

I have a question.

I have heard on various sites the theory that a Romney win would likely push the metals down, at least in the short term. However, if Romney wins and there is a surge of enthusiasm that releases all the cash that has been sidelined during the last four years, wouldn't that be inflationary in the mid to long term? I know it's not that simple but is it possible? Forgive me if I've missed it entirely, I am no economist. I'm not really a Romney fan just thinking along the lines of public perception.

Oct 30, 2012 - 10:29pm


And you want to know just how sick the Obama people are on the storm issue? It’s party hats and cake over in Chicago. High f-cking fives for them. Heard LaBolt is telling them all “We’re gonna shove this storm right up Romney’s ass.” They already got scripts out to their media support. Gonna hammer the governor on earlier statements he made about the role of the federal government,

I hope Romney brings this up:

Silver Danny small_potatoes
Oct 30, 2012 - 10:38pm


There are mountains of cash on the sidelines waiting to be invested once the smoke clears and preferably with a pro business POTUS.

This is based off what I see in my industry (Venture Capital)

So ironically, a Romney win may be the spark that unleashes the massive bank reserves and investment/savings built up over the last 4 years, leading to massive inflation.


Oct 30, 2012 - 10:44pm

Monkeys Playing?

The monkeys are playing today on Globex. PM's down AND the Pig down. May as well take good advantage of low volume and NY misery. God bless you Blythe.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

Recent Comments