Back To Business

Tue, Oct 30, 2012 - 3:38pm

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so.

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.

Video unavailable

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 30, 2012 - 3:42pm


Should probably get back to work

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:43pm



Oct 30, 2012 - 3:43pm

near the top?

damn you gotta move fast around here.

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:47pm

318th!!! yah! woo-hoo!!

Always better to be pleasantly surprised right.

Also, a monday post from Trader Dan I didn't see linked anywhere.

Silver Clinging to Support Above $31.50 - Needs Catalyst

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:49pm

blatant repost from the other new thread

Greek parliamentary vote is Doomed!

Submitted by rl999 on October 30, 2012 - 3:27pm. Hat Tip! 999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999

Mish and ZH have articles about the greek parliament and their mess. This might make tomorrows open interesting.

Greece Coalition Splinters, Austerity Vote Delayed, PM Warns of ‘Chaos’; Another Puppet Show or Is This For Real?

Greek Ruling Coalition Collapses Days Ahead Of Critical Vote

Oct 30, 2012 - 3:56pm

Relative to all the Gold talk

Anyone else feel with all the cage-rattling that Turk is doing, that rather than being

like Germany, and seemingly backing off their claims, there will be some of the smaller

countries who are going to see this and say, "wait a minute, if he is only 1% true, do we

want to chance it?" I have a hard time believing that more countries will not start saying

"can I get my stuff please"? Once the SECOND country does that, I envision a cascade

of countries doing it, then it will become REALLY interesting.


All the best to all you East-Coasters out there

Colonel Angus
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:57pm

That blurry video with Hulk Hogan and that friend's wife... would never be Bart Chilton getting in on that.

Let me say it again. I was at a meeting where the top execs from a lot of the TBTF (JP Morgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, et al.) were discussing things with the top regulators from the SEC and the AMF (the French version). It was completely Harvard versus East Bumblefuck Community College. The guy from the SEC actually tried to tell an allegory that was supposed to relate to regulation. The top execs of the TBTF were talking about brass tacks. I came home from this and told my wife, "The financial system is completely screwed." Thunderlips just drives home the point that we have mental midgets in charge of the rules. And the old wealth is going to bend them over the table every time. I actually thought the top SEC guy was going to ask to join the side with the TBTF guys. And then he was going to offer them favors, of whatever type you want to imagine, to stay in their clique. It was just awful.

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

Oct 30, 2012 - 4:11pm

It appears BILL murphy's event and HEH

have the same timeline; starting early August.

BTW I am not a member of uncon-fin. and cannot view the second part so can someone summarize please.

Henry Frap
Oct 30, 2012 - 4:11pm

Yep- has to catch up

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

Yep. One would imagine it just HAS GOT to catch up with them. Meanwhile, stack a few for a rainy day-

(sorry, no pun intended!)

Oct 30, 2012 - 4:14pm

Lease rates

I don't know if this means anything significant, but...

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Recent Comments

by lakedweller2, 28 min 22 sec ago
by H8Fiat, 33 min 36 sec ago
by Outback, 1 hour 13 min ago
by downrange, 1 hour 18 min ago
by Island Teal, 1 hour 20 min ago

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 3 hours 16 min ago
by NW VIEW, 4 hours 39 min ago
by Solsson, 8 hours 46 min ago
by Solsson, 9 hours 10 min ago