Back To Business

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so.

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.


Lastly, I found this last night on Harvey's site (where he very kindly referenced my latest CoT analysis as a "very important read"). Apparently, it's an editorial or op-ed of some kind from Thunderlips. The audacity is so breathtaking that I read it wide-eyed with my jaw agape. I've decided to reprint it below...though I've added a few of my own "editorial suggestions".

Pop Goes The Evil
Published: Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2012 - 5:11 am

In a hair-raising moment last Halloween (no pun intended), investors learned hundreds-of-millions of dollars at MF Global mysteriously vanished. "Pop goes the evil," gone. That super-chilling circumstance wasn't an isolated event (though we at the CFTC pretended it was). There's a seemingly endless barrage of financial firm faults. We need a financial sector collective culture shift.
People are fed up with the Gordon Gekko "greed is good" mentality on Wall Street. Since that "pop goes the evil" moment, Bank of America and 12 others overcharged for debit and overdraft fees. They settled with the Department of Justice for hundreds-of-millions of buckaroos ("buckaroos"?), collectively. Wells Fargo, with $175 million, settled regarding loan discrimination where minorities were charged higher fees and given higher loan rates than others. Barclays tried to manipulate Libor (even though we at the CFTC tried to ignore all charges of this for decades) - a benchmark interest rate impacting about everything purchased on credit. Peregrine Financial Group appears to have been a $200-millionish house of horrors. (Maybe if we'd prosecuted Corzine, we could have saved Peregrine.) Goldman Sachs and Citi established "fake-out funds" where they pressed customers into investments, only to then place opposing bets (psyche!) for themselves. (And this surprises anyone?) Recently, we've learned JP Morgan and Wells accepted billions in federal mortgage relief funds, but didn't extend the assistance to consumers. It would be negative "from a profit perspective."
The numbers of frightening financial fiascoes are numerous. Some have become numb to it all. Others want to bury their dough in the backyard, and that, too, is upsetting. If it were just a few financial evil ghouls, we could blow it off as idiosyncratic, but it isn't; it's embedded in much of the financial sector (and the government and various industry regulatory agencies). This shouldn't be the new normal (it's the way it's always been). We should be outraged.
What's to be done? Government can't regulate corporate culture (nor, apparently can it enforce law). It can, however, help (HAHAHAHAHA). We've seen firms pay puny penalties (which we at the inept and corrupt CFTC imposed) - less than the profits reaped from their wicked shenanigans. Fines shouldn't be a cost of doing business. Do a crime, pay a hefty fine. If severe, do the time. (Unless you're Corzine, Dimon, Blankfien or otherwise well-connected.)
Firms themselves possess the real remedies for cleaning up this haunting culture (If you believe this, I've got some brand new beach front property in Jersey to sell you). Compensation and bonus structures should transform, rewarding risk professionals instead of spine-tingling traders making cowboy-style gambles. Tudes and memos from the suit suites should offer a different corporate conscience, and have conviction in that charge ("Tudes from the suit suites"? Seriously?? You actually wrote that? And you're a "highly-respected" commissioner of the CFTC?). Captains of the Street should believe they are beholden to customers first, and for the long term - not just next quarter's profit-and-loss statement.
Character and culture go together. It's no wonder many believe some firms (and government agencies) have proven unworthy of trust. But, the country's financial system is too scary important ("too scary important"? What are you, like, in Middle School, dude?) for the status quo to continue. It's time for honest play. It's time for a financial culture shift.

Bart Chilton is a commissioner on the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the author of "Ponzimonium: How Scam Artists Are Ripping Off America." Readers may write to him at: CFTC, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street NW, Washington, D. C. 20581; website:

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)




rl999's picture

318th!!! yah! woo-hoo!!

Always better to be pleasantly surprised right.

Also, a monday post from Trader Dan I didn't see linked anywhere.

Silver Clinging to Support Above $31.50 - Needs Catalyst

Igiveup2's picture



RunRunRun's picture

near the top?

damn you gotta move fast around here. 

silver66's picture


Should probably get back to work

rl999's picture

blatant repost from the other new thread

rl999's picture

Greek parliamentary vote is Doomed!


Mish and ZH have articles about the greek parliament and their mess. This might make tomorrows open interesting.

Greece Coalition Splinters, Austerity Vote Delayed, PM Warns of ‘Chaos’; Another Puppet Show or Is This For Real?

Greek Ruling Coalition Collapses Days Ahead Of Critical Vote

ggnewmex's picture

Relative to all the Gold talk

Anyone else feel with all the cage-rattling that Turk is doing, that rather than being

like Germany, and seemingly backing off their claims, there will be some of the smaller

countries who are going to see this and say, "wait a minute, if he is only 1% true, do we

want to chance it?"  I have a hard time believing that more countries will not start saying

"can I get my stuff please"?  Once the SECOND country does that, I envision a cascade

of countries doing it, then it will become REALLY interesting.


All the best to all you East-Coasters out there

Colonel Angus's picture

That blurry video with Hulk Hogan and that friend's wife... would never be Bart Chilton getting in on that.

Let me say it again. I was at a meeting where the top execs from a lot of the TBTF (JP Morgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, et al.) were discussing things with the top regulators from the SEC and the AMF (the French version). It was completely Harvard versus East Bumblefuck Community College. The guy from the SEC actually tried to tell an allegory that was supposed to relate to regulation. The top execs of the TBTF were talking about brass tacks. I came home from this and told my wife, "The financial system is completely screwed." Thunderlips just drives home the point that we have mental midgets in charge of the rules. And the old wealth is going to bend them over the table every time. I actually thought the top SEC guy was going to ask to join the side with the TBTF guys. And then he was going to offer them favors, of whatever type you want to imagine, to stay in their clique. It was just awful. 

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

SIlverbee's picture

It appears BILL murphy's event and HEH

have the same timeline; starting early August.

BTW I am not a member of uncon-fin. and cannot view the second part so can someone summarize please. 

Henry Frap's picture

Yep- has to catch up

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

Yep. One would imagine it just HAS GOT to catch up with them. Meanwhile, stack a few for a rainy day-

(sorry, no pun intended!)  

Martdin's picture

Lease rates

I don't know if this means anything significant, but...

question's picture

Turd, That Was Such a Sad Read

Our life boat is full of holes and poor Bart hasn't even one oar in the water.

We're all New York now (except NY can rebuild).

Prayers to the east coast.

Bugzy's picture


Problem is those in charge of "sovereign" countries. They "personally" are doing quite well.

What you are suggesting is that those currently sucking off the teats would swap their lot at the top of the tree for a principle - in which THEY (individuals) risk all for their country. How many of them are really bothered?

Chavez thrives in sticking it to Uncle Sam. Indeed - it gives him street cred.

Germany squeaks that it only wants 50 ton per year (got to give them time to acquire it - cannot ask for all at once).

One can only hope that the masses can encourage the political oppositions to demand repatriation. However if Uncle Sam whispers, we aint got it. To those PTB then they are likely to say nothing and keep their status quo.

Risk rebellion by speaking truth.......hmmmm think not.


ggnewmex's picture

this has got to be good by business

ancientmoney's picture


You ought to send back to Chilton your properly editorialized version, just as noted.  Maybe he'd get the message (or not).  Anyway, my sentiments exactly. 

He must have a 13 year old daughter messing with his silly blond head to write publicly in such a sophomoric way.  I can't believe I pay taxes to keep him in his $100k+ cushy job.  And, he's one of the better, smarter ones, they say.  Yikes.

Ilya Repin's picture

Get some

Daily XAG chart looks like a wall sits beneath 31.80. no penetration, nothing. this is unheard of. Silver stocks screaming higher. Ominous.


Bugzy's picture

Canadian Silver

Seems Turkey and Vietnam and India are attempting to have the central planners owning the peoples real wealth.

Canada hopes to raise how much! By when! Why the rush I wonder?

Are they going to phyzz put all that Silver away - in such a short time? - competing directly with Sprott?

There again- those negative lease rates? Are they going to outlaw the precious and nobody wants it (including the Canadian mint)

Lots of confusion.

Help me please.


Edit Or is Canada doing a China and encouraging folk to own wealth. Then there was the piece about Scotia Macotta taking delivery of a big chunk of Silver.

I have no idea what to think right now.

Edit 2: A flash of inspiration. Do not give government money, we stack because we do not trust them.

Bollocks's picture

"Pop Goes The Evil"

Hilarious comments Turd! smiley

Revelation's picture

Mike Maloney's Dire 2005 Warnings Come True

prius_driver's picture

I agree with turd

The editorial from Bart is over the top absurd.  I really don't understand it at all--is he really as dumb as he sounds?  Or is he doing a bad job at playing dumb?  I don't get it.

Revelation's picture

Beware Samhain!!!! Repost

October 31 - Samhain, also known as Halloween, or All Hallows Eve. This date is the Illuminati's highest day of human sacrifice.

We are coming up on the “holiest” day of the Illuminati calendar. Two market crashes here in the USA occurred within the 13 day window of October 19th - 31st.
These were Black Monday, October 19, 1987 (thirteen days before Oct. 31st), and October 27, 1997 mini-crash that began the stock market crashes in Asia. There was also a crash in October, Friday the 13th, 1989.
RightLeftWrong's picture


Hard to believe that is from Chilton.  perhaps he is trying to connect with communities like ours by using such unusual language.  Seems strange to me.

Istack's picture

I liked TurdTalksMetals today

he thinks we should buy silver

rl999's picture

Silver exchanges


Today SD posted: RCM (Royal Canadian Mint) launches ETR’s backed by Silver bullion

Recently TF spoke about some long awaited (Asian?) silver exchange coming on line recently. (At TTM or one of the two podcasts TF did last week)

India just launched a physical silver bullion exchange MCX

I think I am forgetting one, but considering the limited amount of silver that is available (per the KWN guys and A.Maguire) it seems surprising that all this can be happening at once on top of increasing industrial demand.

Perhaps this will cause some movement.

145Bluesman's picture

Bart Bart let a fart

Blew the whole damn place apart?

100% sure that Bart Chilton needle prick reads this site with regularity. And he most certainly is a perverted sociopath and enjoy's the attention. Any publicity is good publicity to his kind of mind.

If Turd didn't tell Bart and Blythe and the monkeys just how and what to do on a daily basis, they  would all be in a world of shit.

And Silver would probably be over sixty buckerooos.

Now, what about those negative lease rates?

And the new world order satan worshippers worshipping their god this week.

I say silver gets hammered down three buckeroooos this week.

Hope I'm wrong.

¤'s picture

IMF Paper #1

World Economic Outlook, October 2012 :

Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth

World Economic Outlook, October 2012    : Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth
Published Date: October 2012
Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.


¤'s picture

IMF Paper #2

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012:

Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms : (Summary version)

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012: Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms    : (Summary version)
Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department


¤'s picture

IMF Paper #3

Fiscal Monitor, October 2012 :

Taking Stock - A Progress Report on Fiscal Adjustment

Fiscal Monitor, October 2012    : Taking Stock - A Progress Report on Fiscal Adjustment

Published Date: October 2012
Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
With growth weakening in many parts of the world and downside risks on the rise, fiscal consolidation remains challenging. However, considerable progress has been made in strengthening fiscal accounts following their sharp deterioration in 2008-09. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress, focusing on its size, composition, and implications for employment and social equity. The issue finds that most countries--and especially advanced economies--have made significant headway in rolling back fiscal deficits, but that efforts at controlling debt stocks are taking longer to yield results. The mix of revenue and expenditure policies employed by countries with sizable fiscal consolidation needs has differed, with advanced economies in general relying more on spending retrenchment than emerging markets and low-income countries. Both spending and revenue measures have important implications for employment and social equity, the issue finds, and these implications need to be taken into account if the large consolidation efforts underway are to be sustainable.


TD's picture


FAZ may be an abbreviation for:

Faz can also refer to:

Be Prepared's picture

The Rain isn't staying mainly on the Plains

There is a great wind a blowing..... I have felt it's harsh and bitter edge.  The seeds of destruction, planted long ago, are finally overgrowing all that was once worth something in the ol' U.S. of A.  We are in the Turning of this Century and its apex seems to be ever close upon us.  We can ignore that the fact we hold no store of value in the paper and electronic debits we have been driven to hold, but it would be and is truly to our perish.

Yes, we hold silver and gold and there is hope that it might be a safe bridge over these waters, but the system knows how to grind.... to grind away at freedoms.... to smash a person's resolve.... to audit one into oblivion.  There are few within the system that see the masses as the holders and owners of the government..... and, more than likely, see us as cattle to be herded and branded.  Many days it's hard to live with so many blind and oblivious people because I know that they will so readily serve me (us) up to the alter of a fascist state without nary a thought.

My comfort lies not in metal, although a chunk of lead does a mind good, but in knowing that I am willing to see the truth..... always looking to find the truth.... seeking to learn the truth with all that it means and holds.  Truth may not set me free in the future, but today... it is my beacon and it lights a mighty path.  :-)

*repost from Sprott thread because I couldn't figure out which one was the main one....

Be Prepared's picture

The only good Sandy News...

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