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149
Tue, Oct 30, 2012 - 3:38pm

It will be weeks before we know the true impact and effect of the epic storm that hit New York yesterday. Regardless, trading resumes tomorrow and, with it, expect a return of liquidity and volume to the metals pits.

Though the metals have been trading for the past two days, the lack of market participants has led to a holiday-like feel. The only entities trading have been HFTs which scour the books, hunting for stop orders to exploit on either side of the trade. The resulting charts are just had been anticipated, namely, rangebound within a tightening pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Because of this, we are set up for a volatile and consequential Wednesday. I was expecting a bottom this week and I think I'm about to get it.

First, I look for these pennants to finally conclude with a break out and UP. Initial resistance will come in near $1720 in gold and $32.25 in silver. Sensing a turn in the momentum, some shorts will begin to cover and the metals will then move toward $1730 and $32.50. Once above there (Friday?), even the dumbest algo will be able to see that staying short means risking being caught on the wrong side of the trade and the urge to cover becomes irresistible.

This is what happened in late January of 2011 when the Large Spec Short position declined from 10,473 to 7,203 in one CoT week (1/25/11 - 2/1/11). Could we be set up for a similar drop in the next CoT from tomorrow through next Tuesday? We'll see...

Just a couple of other items. First, if you haven't yet read the earlier post which included the latest Sprott newsletter, please make the time to do so. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4287/terrific-new-stuff-sprott

Next, Bill Murphy's at it again. In this interview, he answers some interesting questions but certainly seems to raise a few more. He raises the specter of some explosive, new allegations against JPM et al and he eloquently places things in their historical context.

Video unavailable

That's all for now. Look for a total resumption of daily Turdville activities tomorrow. Until then, I think I'll go bury all my dough in the backyard. (Psyche!)

TF

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  149 Comments

silver66
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:42pm

First

Should probably get back to work

Igiveup2
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:43pm

Close

Again

RunRunRun
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:43pm

near the top?

damn you gotta move fast around here.

rl999
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:47pm

318th!!! yah! woo-hoo!!

Always better to be pleasantly surprised right.

Also, a monday post from Trader Dan I didn't see linked anywhere.

Silver Clinging to Support Above $31.50 - Needs Catalyst

rl999
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:49pm

blatant repost from the other new thread

Greek parliamentary vote is Doomed!

Submitted by rl999 on October 30, 2012 - 3:27pm. Hat Tip! 999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999

Mish and ZH have articles about the greek parliament and their mess. This might make tomorrows open interesting.

Greece Coalition Splinters, Austerity Vote Delayed, PM Warns of ‘Chaos’; Another Puppet Show or Is This For Real?

Greek Ruling Coalition Collapses Days Ahead Of Critical Vote

ggnewmex
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:56pm

Relative to all the Gold talk

Anyone else feel with all the cage-rattling that Turk is doing, that rather than being

like Germany, and seemingly backing off their claims, there will be some of the smaller

countries who are going to see this and say, "wait a minute, if he is only 1% true, do we

want to chance it?" I have a hard time believing that more countries will not start saying

"can I get my stuff please"? Once the SECOND country does that, I envision a cascade

of countries doing it, then it will become REALLY interesting.

GG

All the best to all you East-Coasters out there

Colonel Angus
Oct 30, 2012 - 3:57pm

That blurry video with Hulk Hogan and that friend's wife...

...it would never be Bart Chilton getting in on that.

Let me say it again. I was at a meeting where the top execs from a lot of the TBTF (JP Morgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, et al.) were discussing things with the top regulators from the SEC and the AMF (the French version). It was completely Harvard versus East Bumblefuck Community College. The guy from the SEC actually tried to tell an allegory that was supposed to relate to regulation. The top execs of the TBTF were talking about brass tacks. I came home from this and told my wife, "The financial system is completely screwed." Thunderlips just drives home the point that we have mental midgets in charge of the rules. And the old wealth is going to bend them over the table every time. I actually thought the top SEC guy was going to ask to join the side with the TBTF guys. And then he was going to offer them favors, of whatever type you want to imagine, to stay in their clique. It was just awful.

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

SIlverbee
Oct 30, 2012 - 4:11pm

It appears BILL murphy's event and HEH

have the same timeline; starting early August.

BTW I am not a member of uncon-fin. and cannot view the second part so can someone summarize please.

Henry Frap
Oct 30, 2012 - 4:11pm

Yep- has to catch up

I bough some FAZ at recent lows because eventually this has to catch up with the TBTF...I hope...

Yep. One would imagine it just HAS GOT to catch up with them. Meanwhile, stack a few for a rainy day-

(sorry, no pun intended!)

Martdin
Oct 30, 2012 - 4:14pm

Lease rates

I don't know if this means anything significant, but...

https://www.kitco.com/charts/g_leaserates.html

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

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Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

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