Cure For Boredom

391
Fri, Oct 26, 2012 - 10:00am

Not only is a "Storm Of The Century" ready to form and hit the U.S. east coast early next week, the "Storm Of The Century" is suddenly building again in Greece. Yikes!

Here are your salient links. First, the meteorological phenomenon. Hurricane Sandy is set to merge/combine with energy typical of a "Nor-easter" this weekend. The storm is then set to turn left and head toward the Jersey coast sometime on Monday or early Tuesday. See this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/u-s-east-from-washington-to-nyc-at-risk-from-hurricane-sandy.html, this: https://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropics-scenarios-us-threat-20121022 and this: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/204249W5_NL_sm.gif and this: https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/8192/more-perfect-storm

Now, lest you think I've suddenly changed my name to "Turd Cantore", there's also a monetary phenomenon to worry about in Greece. This was supposed to have been papered over for a while...certainly until after the U.S. elections. Oops. See this:

https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203937004578079070389572866.html, this: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/greece-debt-extension-could-cost-up-to-30-bn-euros-source/articleshow/16966773.cms and this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-26/greek-deadline-sunday-evening

All of this means that we are likely entering into a period of significant volatility in the metals markets. The good news, for us, is that the metals are entering this phase after having already been pushed back to support levels that indicate an end to this current "correction". Of course, anything can happen and I may end up looking like a complete idiot (again), but all indications are that we have reached a bottom and have completed this mirror-image pullback to the QE2-rally pause of January 2011.

Let's start with silver where the technical picture is slightly more clear than gold. Look, first, at this 2-hour chart. You can plainly see the obvious support at $31.60 - $31.70. Four attempts have now been made this week to breach this level and each wave has been repulsed. Now, once silver trades back above $32.25 and then $32.50, the pressure on the recent shorts will begin to increase. Some will begin to cover, the rally will strengthen and, soon, the bottom will be clear to nearly everyone.

And you can clearly see the bottom forming on these next two charts. The 6-hour chart reveals the downtrend line from the highs on 10/4 and the daily chart shows that we have completed an almost perfect and "textbook" example of a 50% retracement.

The gold charts look pretty good, too, though not quite as clear as gold seems to be trading about 24-48 hours behind silver. This is a little odd in that gold usually leads the trade. Whatever. The gold chart also shows that a bottom is forming/has formed and a move higher next week will confirm the lows.

So, relax. Keep the faith, be happy and buy a little more physical today. If you live on the U.S. east coast, head out to Lowe's and Costco and prepare to hunker down. If you live in Greece, buy yourself a stock of gyros and ouzo and consider taking the next week off.

I'll be updating things throughout the day, including thoughts on the CoT when it's released, so please check back later and review all of the comments. Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  391 Comments

rpboxster
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:02am

first?

still looking for comments on the plan for the end.

Kcap
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:03am

You know what happens when I post first!

Remember?

Kcap

edit: close, perhaps it won't happen this time!

Big Buffalo
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:04am

Dang It!

Dang it, dang it.

beinki
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:05am

No FRN's at BofA very funny, enjoy

I Try To Redeem My SILVER CERTIFICATE For Silver at B of A
jb
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:05am

Top ten, that's a first

Top ten, that's a first

dgstage
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:08am

Your Early Today

Thanks and have a great Friday!

Air Garcia
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:11am

silver will never trade above $36USD again.

There, I said it. Prove me wrong.

sir
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:11am

Lift off

Turd posts, everyone gets re-assured and buys the bottom, silver goes up 60c, weekend is happier!

Air Garcia
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:13am

"Prove me wrong"

I don't have to. The market will.

Just A Regular Guy
Oct 26, 2012 - 10:15am

@ beinki

Haha, genius!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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