Another Parallel

242
Tue, Oct 23, 2012 - 10:40am

Continuing with the current theme, here's another reprint for you. Party like it's 2011!!

Just six, short days after calling "Turd's Bottom" and issuing a guarantee, (https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html) all looked lost. It was January 27, 2011. Prices had peaked three weeks earlier in the post-QE2 euphoria and now nearly every "maven" was dumbfounded by the continuing weakness. Sound familiar?

So, for today, I invite everyone to go back to "The Watchtower" and review this post:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/sour-grapes.html

You'll find all sorts of parallels to today...even references to the sudden appearance of a shadowy "insider" who had begun posting cryptic messages on the Yahoo Finance boards.

Anyway, keep the faith and hang in there. This, too, shall pass.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  242 Comments

Oct 23, 2012 - 10:59am
ballyale
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:04am

If Turd was correct about gold moving out of US and UK

Then the momentum must have ratcheted up today. Interesting ZH article about massive amounts of gold being bought by Iranians in Turkey with Italian Lira then shipped to Dubai to ultimately end up in Iran so Iran can pay for imports.

Hmm!

P.S. Sucky day. Nobody said this was going to be easy. It's quite possible that we may have an intraday turn around. I've seen it before. Nothings changed. Fundos still in place. Patience is the most difficult of virtues. Great entry point with Fiat to spare.

Bally

SRSrocco
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:06am

INPUT FROM ANY MEMBERS....

I am trying to put together a REALISTIC TOTAL OVERALL COST for mining silver. I can't remember the members in this blog who told me that my calculations in my article THE COMPLETE COST OF MINING SILVER (back in July 2011) were incorrect.

This is a chart from that article based on this formula:

I do realize this is not the typical way to figure out costs for mining silver. However, I believe cash costs are completely worthless in determining 'THE PROFITABILITY OF A COMPANY."

For instance, SilverCorps Q2 2012 (or their fiscal Q1 2013) results show the following:

Net Income = $44.5 million

Cost of Sales = $19 million

Income before taxes = $17.4 million

Net Income after taxes = $9.5 million

Ying Mine District Cash Cost of Silver = $0.16 oz

Ying Mine District Total Production Cost = $2.49

---------------------------

Now, if we go by their total income before taxes of $17.4 million, this is 39% of their total revenue. If they received $30 an ounce for their silver during this quarter, they had to pay 61% cost (that is net of by-product credits). I get the following:

61% X $30 = $18.3 actual cost per oz

Of course this is not the typical accounting method of figuring costs, but it seems a great deal more realistic than $2.49.

Anyhow... I wanted to converse or have an email exchange with anyone here that might be in the mining industry as an accountant... or who understands accounting as it pertains to the balance sheets of mining companies.

Please send me a message through this website, or an email at SRSrocco[at]gmail[dot]com if you interested in throwing some ideas around in obtaining a better method of figuring actual costs for mining silver or gold for that matter.

Thanks...

GroanerTF
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:06am

It looks like Custard's last stand.. ice cream stand?

got a turn around going here, maybe?

a double bottom put in for today?

Zoltan
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:07am

Winnipeg LCS Report

Paid $38 cash for a new antelope (with plastic cover). Lots of inventory in silver and gold. Only other people were sellers. Gold gram wafers for $80 cash.

Z

Groaner
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:11am

At least Harleys are selling.. stock is up...

Where do they make those bikes, China??

Too bad Apple doesnt show some good will and create manufacturing here.. I know, they dont have much money to play around with.

FritzSRSrocco
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:16am

SRS Input

Just give the folks at Silver Wheaton a call . . . They probably will be delighted to speak with you about accountingn approaches.

Eric Original
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:16am

Thanks for the trip in the Way Back Machine, Turd

I love scrolling through the comments on those old blogspot posts. I sure was busy on that one! Of course, I was busy on all of them back in those days.

Here's one of mine that I like:

EricJanuary 27, 2011 11:00 PM

Turd,
Besides, if it turned right now, the lows would turn out to be something like 1308 and 26.40. So you had 1320 and 26.50. Big deal. Now come down off the ledge.

Oct 23, 2012 - 11:18am

Double Bottom?

Maybe.

IF a consolidation can begin here AND we get a shove from the Fedlines tomorrow, a squeeze from this double bottom could really put some nervousness into the shorts.

Istack
Oct 23, 2012 - 11:22am

I went into the LCS yesterday too

I picked up 11 ASE's. There were two young 20 year old kids with their pants hanging on for dear life. I think they were trying to sell grandma's old coin collection. I wonder how many people pass off stolen merchandise there at the coin shop. There was another guy who was trying to sell some fake gold. Shady lookin character. He probably could have taught me some new gang signs. I didn't make eye contact though. Gotta lay low when your stackin. Edit: LOL.. how's that for a double bottom.

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