The End Is Near (2012)

Sat, Oct 20, 2012 - 11:37am

Time to bust out this sorry-looking SOB again.

I wasn't planning on writing anything today but then it dawned on me:

  1. After yesterday, everyone needs a subtle reminder that all is not lost.
  2. Many folks come and go all week and may have missed the general theme.

Once again, my time is short so I'll keep it simple and to the point. This current pullback/correction is nearly identical in circumstance to the pullback of January 2011. Back then, QE2 had been announced seven weeks earlier and, once the initial, euphoric push into the metals had subsided, priced were raided in order to give The Cartels time to cover some shorts. Both metals saw all of their post-QE gains clawed back over a three-week period. Desperation was in the air. The MOPE was thick with misleading economic statistics and pundits everywhere were proclaiming the death of the metal bull market.

I lived through it and wrote about it on the old "Watchtower" site . Here's a sample of the mood and tone from that period:

Finally, after three weeks of nonsense, I was fed up by the discongruent action and issued this guarantee. Old-timers will recall it as "Turd's Bottom":

This week, we reached the same place. If you haven't yet reviewed this post from Wednesday, I urge you to take the time to do it now:

Look, I really don't care what anyone else says. The chartreaders and the subscription guys can all kiss my skinny, Cornhusker rear end. As Hans and Franz would say, "Listen to me now and hear me later!"


As you can see below, both metals have nearly completed a perfect, 50% retracement of the rally from mid-August to early October. Note, too, that Relative Strength Indicies have subsequently fallen to levels from which rallies typically begin.

What happens next is easily predictable. I mean, I could be wrong but I doubt it.

With silver below its 50-day MA and gold sitting directly upon its, expect more weakness Sunday night into Monday. As gold slips below $1720, more momo-chasers will enter on the short side and gold will likely fall even further. I'd expect a low somewhere around $1700 + 10. Silver will fall toward $31.50, maybe even $31 if it really gets ugly.

At this point, all of the remaining spec short sheep will have been drawn into the trade and the metals will reverse, probably by late Monday or overnight Tuesday. The metals then may hang around in a choppy trade for a few days as they build a base and a bottom. Here's another sample from 2011, this one written on 2/1/11, seven trading days after the guarantee of "Turd's Bottom": Note that the base-building process off of this type of correction can be strenuous as the shorts try every trick in the book to regain their momentum.

Finally, based upon extraordinary fundamentals and overwhelming physical demand, the metals will charge higher once again, eclipsing $36 and $1800 on the way back to the levels last seen in the spring and summer of 2011. This will happen. Just be patient and keep the faith. Relax and continue stacking.

Have a great weekend!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 20, 2012 - 12:10pm

Impact of November elections on PMs

What say you on the impact of the elections with regard to PMs, Monsieur Turd? Oh, I know that fundamentally, nothing has changed, but do you feel that recent suppression schemes will abate after November 6th and that it's a tough slog for the PMs until then? It has been maddening to watch the market movements of late. Euro goes up, Eurogold goes down, USgold goes down in sympathy with Eurogold. Or, conversely, Euro goes down, Eurogold goes up, USgold goes down in sympathy with Euro. In either case, USgold goes down. What type of madness and stinking disconnect is this? Your thoughts?

Oct 20, 2012 - 12:10pm

Afterglow [?] of HEH: question for TF

If HEH is still on then can you say if it:

a) starts on our side of The Pond

b) starts on your side of The Pond

c) starts outside "The West" altogether ?

And as a supplementary: Where will Joe Public perceive it as starting?

[And if California Lawyer chooses to further cross-examine you then you can cite such-and-such Amendment.]

Oct 20, 2012 - 12:20pm


... Time for another FOMC statement rally on wednesday.

Oct 20, 2012 - 12:43pm

Germany's gold reserves Sat

Germany's gold reserves Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:6AM GMT Broadcast Date: 19 Oct. 2012 Download | Embed In this edition of the show Max interviews Lars Schall from

He talks about Germany's gold reserves, which are held in New York and not in Germany.

El Gordo
Oct 20, 2012 - 12:44pm

Getting tired

I'm getting tired and bored clinking the same old rounds over and over again. Time to go get some new ones as soon as the price drops Sunday nite or Monday. If a few are good, a whole bunch is better.

Oct 20, 2012 - 12:54pm

My End Game !

I tell the bums, "I hire for food !" ! No takers so far ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad "Stacking" And "Prepping" Are Hoarding World Tour

Oct 20, 2012 - 12:54pm
fast mover
Oct 20, 2012 - 1:03pm

Since Turd is dragging up Jan 2011 Turd's Bottom archives...

Turd's Bottom was called on the Outside Reversal Day found on Jan 28, 2011 from this chart:

I was about to capitulate and cash out of my SLV calls...but Turd called this and I stuck it out.

How does today's silver chart look?

I'm seeing support near $31.


Oct 20, 2012 - 1:17pm

The end is near? Probably not!

Every now and then I check back in here in order to learn about the various avenues of destruction our civilization is traveling down. Today is a perfect example.

I realize that the person who refers to himself in the third person as Turd may be using "the end is near" as merely a euphemism. But still--over many months the general tone here is reflective of warning how our culture is soon coming to an end in various ways and how to prepare for it.

To an extent, that is very healthy and helpful. Do not depend on our government for assistance in times of natural disasters ; have an emergency supply of various items that will allow you to survive.

But to live ones life in the apparent certainty that soon forces will combine to change our way of life is unhealthy and to be avoided. The third person Turd (it still amazes me that credence should be given to someone who calls himself Turd and in the third person as well!) Anyway--the war drums here have been tumpety tumping for several years regarding the ME. Total war is coming and coming soon. Tumpety Tump! NUTS ! The usual mayhem is ongoing, admittedly, but total war is not happening and probably not going to happen soon. Prepare yes--but to live ones life in fear is to negate any quality of life that you may have.

Turd's accuracy in predicting the future course of precious metals pricing has been awful. It would be clear that for most people who have begun stacking in the last few years--you are under water a whole lot on your investment. (and PM's should not be regarded a insurance--if so the premium is awfully high!

As for our economy--it is abysmal. Lots of people are hurting and will continue to hurt. Back in the day when I graduated from college--and from law school--it was pretty much guaranteed that if you had the education and didn't go out commit felonies--you were pretty much assured of a career. Not so now--and I hurt for such people who have done everything right and still face a bleak future.

But to live one's life in fear--to live for stocking guns, ammo, silver and gold for some disaster that is impending is to deny any enjoyment that life may still bring.

Now you may wonder why I hang around here. And I have for a long time. But less so lately. Anyway, I enjoy LCS stories and I am a stacker since 1964--not because I think I will be able to exchange a dime for a loaf of bread but because, I admit, I like the stuff.

I often read the assertion that we are in "Turd's house" and we must be gracious and polite to Turd because we chose to enter his "house". Certainly, gracious and polite are good. But, looking at it another way, just because we are in Turd's house, we are his guests and he should be polite and gracious to us. And I notice very little of that coming from him to people who question his values.

So live your life--visit a museum--do volunteer work--converse with friends--but I urge you to spend less time on the computer.

Oct 20, 2012 - 1:29pm

Saturday humour sort of ...

heard an interesting Chinese proverb the other day:

When there is food on the table there are many problems. When there is no food on the table there is one problem.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

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