Time Is Short

Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - 12:43pm

I've been working, researching and thinking all morning and you deserve a lengthy post with full explanations. For now, though, it's getting late and I want to post some initial guidance, so, here you go.

In hindsight, this should have been anticipated. I failed you on that and I apologize. I'm still supremely confident in coming, future "historic and explosive" events and, therefore, quite reluctant to sell anything. It's also very difficult for me to advise anyone else to sell anything when the changes I expect could literally materialize at any moment.

For those keeping score at home, I still own all of the December gold and silver calls I bought late last summer. I've made no changes. Should I have locked in some gains two weeks ago? Of course but my confidence is unwavering so I've just kept them in place. This is certainly NOT the best trading strategy but I'm not really much of a trader anymore, anyway. However, this doesn't mean that you, my dear reader, are not a trader and therefore I feel badly that I didn't counsel you against last week and today. Certain subscription sites did issue warnings and for that I applaud them. At $75 or $100/month, they'd better be right every once in a while.

In the end, it boils down to this...

Our current situation is playing out almost exactly to the pattern seen post the announcement of QE2 back in late 2010. Charts, timing, sentiment...all the same. Because of this, the next phase should play out the same, as well. More on that in a minute.

For now, what we are seeing is a complete clawback of the gains made post QE∞. We saw this in January of 2011 and we are seeing it again now. {Take a minute to go back and read this. Tell me the 2nd paragraph doesn't seem like it was written last Friday. (Additionally, how about all the grief I took from some folks because gold only traded to $1577 in May?) https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html}

This is NOT the start of a major pullback and the metals are NOT going to $26 and $1500. NOT happening. Let the past be your guide and remember, the key to "successful" metals trading is to always have the courage to sell some when everyone is buying and buy some when everyone else is selling.

So, please consider these charts and try to keep your wits about you. The selloff is January of 2011 lasted three weeks and we are currently in week 2 of this one. Consequently, we are close to a bottom but not likely there just yet. With this in mind, look at these 12-hour charts. Note that prices have nearly retraced ALL of the gains made after the announcement of QE∞.

And now look at these daily charts with the RSIs at the bottom. Remember that Relative Strength Indices are my favorite indicators of "overbought" and "oversold" conditions. Note that both metals are CLOSE to reaching the RSI levels last seen in late June, at the bottom of the 100-day beatdown from Leap Day.

So, for the sake of brevity, let me sum up. I'll try to craft a more detailed post later and, for the first time since "$44 silver by Labor Day" ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1993/silver-44) , I plan to give you a hard and fast prediction post that contains both a date and a price.

The metals could have bottomed today but I doubt it. Sometime in the next 5-7 trading days, though, I expect a drop in silver to near $32, maybe even a shade below. I expect gold to drop to $1720 and perhaps briefly spike to $1700 or just below. THAT IS IT, HOWEVER. From there, the metals will resume their post-QE∞ rally. By sometime early in Q1 2013, I expect silver to once again see $44 and gold will trade to near, or just above $2000.

So, that's it for now. Hang in there and keep the faith. Get ready to buy the dip.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


The Doc · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:44pm

Turd, a few months back Andy

Turd, a few months back Andy informed us that a large physical silver purchase in the range of 10 million ounces took weeks before the LBMA would agree to deliver outside the LBMA system. Our friend SRSrocco has discovered that in the same timeframe, the US exported an astonishing 169 metric tons of silver to London.
Co-inkidink? I don't think so.


Just more evidence that the PHYSICAL silver shortage is real and extreme...in the midst of the endless paper games and raids.


justin99975 · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:45pm

first first!!thanks turdbuy

first first!!

thanks turd

buy this dip

Duh... not even close. darn

Mr. Fix · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:45pm
· Oct 15, 2012 - 12:47pm



We know. We know that you know. We know that you know that we know that you know. 

So knock-off this stinking charade, and repeat after me: "We do not serve the public interest. We serve to present the illusion of regulatory oversight so our paymasters can subvert the free markets." There. Was that so hard?

PMBull · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:49pm

I Shouldn't Have Read This

Could have been second, but was too mesmerized by the content of the post.

Next time.

But 5th isn't too shabby!

indosil · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:49pm



I commented previously regarding this month being celebrated by "O Bummer as the MONTH OF LIES'.I believe that the GDP data is on the 26th of Oct...last lie to nail....after that the assholes will fall short of lies to lay hands upon...but WTFDIK

thatguy007 · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:50pm

Stiff resistance

expect stiff resistance @ 1738 and 32.95 respectively. Turd is right this is just icing on the cake. BTFD and a can of spam to wash it down

SilverTree · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:51pm
The Doc · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:56pm

Well, THAT sure is interesting Doc!

And a big Attaboy! to SRSrocco for finding that data!!

Nana · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:56pm
monkry · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:58pm

Real reason for dip

Is because last week I took delivery of one au maple, and 21 ag maples.

So, for those stacking today, you're welcome.

BTW, interesting thing is the ag maple I received is from 1983.

All previous maples from kitco were 2011, and 2012.

I only stated collecting last year after the pop in May.

Woe is me, all metals were lost when I went fishing, and last week's delivery fell out of my car while I was on the highway.

Daedalus Mugged · Oct 15, 2012 - 12:58pm


So Turd, would you recommend buying now, or waiting for a pullback? I want to BTFD, but I am not sure if the Friday morning to today is the dip, or I should hold out for a modestly better price over the next week or so. Thoughts?

(rather than wait for your answer, I just BTFD. Why? I would rather leave $20-40 (Au) on the table than miss the upside potential, but I am guessing others are having the same thoughts. So I am done with physical purchases for a while now. My only problem is that the boat is out of the water...how is it supposed to fall overboard? But I am sure others are wrestling with the same question after reading your post.) 


Anonymous · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:00pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Gold Dog · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:01pm

Top 20!

Top 20!

Actually my first top 10.....pretty good for a man in the "late summer" of his years!

I was just farting around on Apmex buying some tubes of silver and went into my history.

At the end of 2008 I bought my first rounds from them for $12.51.....today I paid 34.86 for a couple of hundred.

Sometimes in all the hullabaloo about stocking up on AU we forget it's bulky little brother AG!

Keep stacking my friends....and BTFD bitchez!


foscotanner · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:04pm


A week ago WB posted how they were going to move silver starting tomorrow.

Since they posted, silver has tanked. Coincidence? No idea.

It could be worth noting that anyone trying to drive silver up in the next 5 days from here will be up against it. From these levels, the first day could be a bear bounce. Now WB needs 10% rise just to get to $36.

So if i was JPM and I had a threat spouting off their mouth, i might just hammer the price to make 36 easier to defend. I am sure that there will be some sellers if we get a bounce now. Specs relieved to get out before we go sub 30.

Maybe WB and that lot anticipated the response to their posting and wanted it to buy cheap. Someone was certainly keen for the price at PM fix to be as low as possible today.

Silver Alert · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:05pm

Was there anyone?

(pre-emptive disclaimer: This is not meant to dis Turd so no one needs to get all bent out of shape.) Was there anyone at the time of QE∞ who predicted that PM's wouldn't get much above their 1-day pop and then get beaten back down to pre-QE levels? Or, did everyone have moonshot fever?

foscotanner · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:06pm

169m tons

Anyone got any idea where the hell 169m tons of silver came from to be shipped to London?

I can only guess........

It sure as hell wasnt sat there in inventory anywhere.........

· Oct 15, 2012 - 1:07pm

Federal Reserve Central Banking Achieving

"Federal Reserve Central banking achieving, from movement towards prosperity future of Glorious five-year plan! Forward to progress!"

Save_America1st · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:09pm

Well, it must be my fault...again...

I hadn't picked up any phyzz for at least a couple months. Was taking a break to see if it would go lower on it's own, but instead it kept hovering between 34 and 35.

So when it was at 34 last week I started to get that "itch" for some shiny new phyzz and decided to cruz into an LCS that's near my company.

I only wanted a little something to put in my pocket, so I figured I would shake up the world and grab just a few ounces. 

I did this fully understanding what my actions could possibly cause: a major smash-down in the PM's by the EE immediately after walking out the door of the LCS. 

Sorry about that folks.

My need for a few shiny new silver Buffalos was all it took to cause this latest hit job. For those of you who wanted to see the PM's higher, I apologize. But for the rest of you who are using my purchase-induced landslide in order to back up the truck for some cheaper phyzz, then you're welcome. 

Hey, wanna see it go to 29 real fast? I'm sure all I'd have to do is go grab me some more today and it will happen! LOL wink

Oh well...I don't care. These are gifts to be taken advantage of right??? So just keep stackin' folks...BTFD little by little. 

Turd has always assured us, we are winning no matter what they do!!! That's all we need to know. 

ReachWest · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:09pm

The Dog Returns to His Vomit

Thank-you Mr Ferguson. 

These "Alice in Wonderland" markets really never cease to amaze me. Up is down. Down is up. Money printing is good. Gold is bad, etc, etc.

And, in the words of Rudyard Kipling .. one of my favourite poems (extract only) FULL VERSION IS HERE.

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more. As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man  There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.  That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,  And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire; And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,  As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,  The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return! 
Silver Alert · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:10pm

And that's just it

I'm so caught up in "current events" that I didn't take time to go back and review the pattern of post-QE2.

All of this should have been anticipated. Regardless, just as this selloff was predictable, the next stage of the rally is predictable, too.

Havenstein · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:15pm

I Stacked Today

That is all.

RaulP · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:18pm


silver investor = bad sailor = bad driver. Q.E.D.

Or shall I say quantitave easing demonstrandum!

HeNateMe · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:19pm

I'm Not Sweating It

Even if silver/gold are 13 points down with seven minutes left on the clock I am not going to sweat it. No biggee. QE is here to stay. 

Go Hawks!


silver foil hat · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:21pm

Golden Tungsten.... an idea for you Turd

Why not get some of those 'golden tungsten' coins from that Chinese site mentioned a few weeks ago made up with the big yella hat? Or get the medallions made in the shape of a hat. Put a motto on the coin something like "More Gold In This Coin Than The Typical COMEX Contract" or something to that effect. On the flipside how about "Benny Sez This Doesn't Contain Money, and This Isn't Money". That should keep you legal (ok, say "The FED Sez..., not Benny") and not accused of counterfiating (that's what I meant) like the "Liberty Dollar" guy.

Just some ideas.... I'd probably buy a few. Anyone else?

edit: I actually thought of this when I first saw that site when it was posted here, but didn't mention it then.

Sisyphus · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:24pm

Still no QE

We are told that money has poured in to the PM ETFs. We are told that Hedgies, and Soros and Slim are all in for gold.


Now , some commentators wonder whether QEi was pre-election flimflam.

In Europe, the promised QE fiat still sits unreleased, since no-one has actually asked for any (come on Rajoy - you know the game is up!).

And China refuses to play the inflating game. 2008 had bad consequences....

So, of course the rises that came with QE have vanished.

indosil · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:27pm
Ernie Pantusso · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:27pm

How many oz are 169 metric

How many oz are 169 metric tons of silver?

worldend666 · Oct 15, 2012 - 1:28pm

Direction of Gold

Just a reminder of what happened during QE 1. There was a run up in gold from Early January 2009 in anticipation of March 18th's announcement of QE. After the announcement Gold took a 10% tumble, so it's hardly surprising we're seeing a "sell the news" reaction now. However gold is looking much stronger now than it was in early 2009 so a 10% sell off seems unlikely. Personally my buy zone is 1700-1725 and I'm excited to see what gold can do next.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales