Time Is Short

208
Mon, Oct 15, 2012 - 12:43pm

I've been working, researching and thinking all morning and you deserve a lengthy post with full explanations. For now, though, it's getting late and I want to post some initial guidance, so, here you go.

In hindsight, this should have been anticipated. I failed you on that and I apologize. I'm still supremely confident in coming, future "historic and explosive" events and, therefore, quite reluctant to sell anything. It's also very difficult for me to advise anyone else to sell anything when the changes I expect could literally materialize at any moment.

For those keeping score at home, I still own all of the December gold and silver calls I bought late last summer. I've made no changes. Should I have locked in some gains two weeks ago? Of course but my confidence is unwavering so I've just kept them in place. This is certainly NOT the best trading strategy but I'm not really much of a trader anymore, anyway. However, this doesn't mean that you, my dear reader, are not a trader and therefore I feel badly that I didn't counsel you against last week and today. Certain subscription sites did issue warnings and for that I applaud them. At $75 or $100/month, they'd better be right every once in a while.

In the end, it boils down to this...

Our current situation is playing out almost exactly to the pattern seen post the announcement of QE2 back in late 2010. Charts, timing, sentiment...all the same. Because of this, the next phase should play out the same, as well. More on that in a minute.

For now, what we are seeing is a complete clawback of the gains made post QE∞. We saw this in January of 2011 and we are seeing it again now. {Take a minute to go back and read this. Tell me the 2nd paragraph doesn't seem like it was written last Friday. (Additionally, how about all the grief I took from some folks because gold only traded to $1577 in May?) https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html}

This is NOT the start of a major pullback and the metals are NOT going to $26 and $1500. NOT happening. Let the past be your guide and remember, the key to "successful" metals trading is to always have the courage to sell some when everyone is buying and buy some when everyone else is selling.

So, please consider these charts and try to keep your wits about you. The selloff is January of 2011 lasted three weeks and we are currently in week 2 of this one. Consequently, we are close to a bottom but not likely there just yet. With this in mind, look at these 12-hour charts. Note that prices have nearly retraced ALL of the gains made after the announcement of QE∞.

And now look at these daily charts with the RSIs at the bottom. Remember that Relative Strength Indices are my favorite indicators of "overbought" and "oversold" conditions. Note that both metals are CLOSE to reaching the RSI levels last seen in late June, at the bottom of the 100-day beatdown from Leap Day.

So, for the sake of brevity, let me sum up. I'll try to craft a more detailed post later and, for the first time since "$44 silver by Labor Day" ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1993/silver-44) , I plan to give you a hard and fast prediction post that contains both a date and a price.

The metals could have bottomed today but I doubt it. Sometime in the next 5-7 trading days, though, I expect a drop in silver to near $32, maybe even a shade below. I expect gold to drop to $1720 and perhaps briefly spike to $1700 or just below. THAT IS IT, HOWEVER. From there, the metals will resume their post-QE∞ rally. By sometime early in Q1 2013, I expect silver to once again see $44 and gold will trade to near, or just above $2000.

So, that's it for now. Hang in there and keep the faith. Get ready to buy the dip.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  208 Comments

The Doc
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:44pm

Turd, a few months back Andy

Turd, a few months back Andy informed us that a large physical silver purchase in the range of 10 million ounces took weeks before the LBMA would agree to deliver outside the LBMA system. Our friend SRSrocco has discovered that in the same timeframe, the US exported an astonishing 169 metric tons of silver to London.
Co-inkidink? I don't think so.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/physical-shortage-169-metric-tonnes-of-sil...

Just more evidence that the PHYSICAL silver shortage is real and extreme...in the midst of the endless paper games and raids.

-Doc

justin99975
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:45pm

first first!!thanks turdbuy

first first!!

thanks turd

buy this dip

Duh... not even close. darn

Mr. Fix
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:45pm
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:47pm

First!

HEY CFTC!!!

We know. We know that you know. We know that you know that we know that you know.

So knock-off this stinking charade, and repeat after me: "We do not serve the public interest. We serve to present the illusion of regulatory oversight so our paymasters can subvert the free markets." There. Was that so hard?

PMBull
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:49pm

I Shouldn't Have Read This

Could have been second, but was too mesmerized by the content of the post.

Next time.

But 5th isn't too shabby!

indosil
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:49pm

GDP DATA

Turd,

I commented previously regarding this month being celebrated by "O Bummer as the MONTH OF LIES'.I believe that the GDP data is on the 26th of Oct...last lie to nail....after that the assholes will fall short of lies to lay hands upon...but WTFDIK

thatguy007
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:50pm

Stiff resistance

expect stiff resistance @ 1738 and 32.95 respectively. Turd is right this is just icing on the cake. BTFD and a can of spam to wash it down

SilverTree
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:51pm
The Doc
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:56pm

Well, THAT sure is interesting Doc!

And a big Attaboy! to SRSrocco for finding that data!!

Nana
Oct 15, 2012 - 12:56pm
Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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