10 11 12

Thu, Oct 11, 2012 - 11:25am

Since this day only comes around once every 100 years, we might as well start another "Hat Contest"!!

As hard as it is to believe, one month from today we will celebrate our 2-year anniversary. Where has the time gone?? As legend has it...It was on 11/11/10 when, over lunch, MrsF suggested that I listen to the readers of ZH and start my own blog. "It's easy to do", she said. "Whaddayagottolose?", she asked. So, off we went, into the abyss. For old time's sake, here is post #1:


Which was soon followed by this:


(Only two posts in and we were already talking about "The Evil Empire" and "collapsing the Comex".) The battle continues to this day. Though their demise has taken longer than expected, it has only grown more certain.

To that end...The Hat Contest. Let's have three this time. Since 11/11/12 is a Sunday, let's go with the 11/9/12 closing prices of the Dec12 silver, the Dec12 gold and the Dec12 crude.

There will likely be three, separate winners but, if anyone can catch lightning in a bottle and predict all three, I'll fish a silver eagle out of the pond out back and pass it along, too. I'll clearly need some help with this so I'll need a volunteer to compile all the guesses on a spreadsheet. (This kind person gets a hat, too.)

So, have at it. Let's use the comments of this thread for the guesses. I'll close the thread tomorrow morning when I post the next update.

Back to the action at hand....The Pig rolled over earlier today and the metals began to catch a bid. We were set up for a strong open on the Comex and we got it. Sadly, the party was cut short by another completely bogus and bullshit BLS report. This time it was the weekly jobless claims. Why do I say bogus and BS? Because the BLS clearly states that "one large state failed to report some quarterly figures". So, rather than issuing an accurate report, the BLS gleefully releases an incomplete report that generates a headline of "Lowest Initial Claims Number Since 2008".


Again, not that this is real. It's based on incomplete data and will just need to be revised next week but, by then, who will care? Just when President O'Bottom needs some positive news to hang his hat on, he gets it! And, what do you want to bet that the "large state" in question is Illinois??? (Thanks to Jim Comiskey for pointing that out earlier.)


Whatever, the report was incentive enough to repel the metals from breaking resistance. Silver, in particular, was right on the doorstep with a high of $34.38 just before the data was released. What is nice, though, was that the selling was brief and really wasn't all that steep. This has led the metals to subsequently recover and, therefore, all is not lost.

And when we look at the longer-term charts, we can clearly see the overall strength of the metals. First, check out these 2-hour charts. Note that the sharp declines from Friday have played themselves out and the metals have now found support and rallied. Maintaining our footing today should set us up for a strong finish to the week tomorrow.

Now look at these 12-hour charts. Though The Bad Guys have been valiant in their attempts to contain price post-QE∞, they are clearly playing a losing game. Pressure simply continues to build against them and, the longer they artificially restrain price, the more powerful the explosion will be once their resistance fails. Just like April 2011 in silver when price ran from $38 to $48. Just like August 2011 in gold when price ran from $1650 to $1920. When The Cartels are forced to retreat and painfully cover misbegotten shorts, the short-term price moves can be...shall we say...dynamic.

So, that's all for today. It already almost lunchtime so I think I'll wrap it up right here. Have a great day and let's look forward to a solid Friday. Good luck with the contest!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 11, 2012 - 11:26am

2ND !1111111

2ND !1111111

Just A Regular Guy
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:27am

ZOMG 3rd

mah ballz!

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:28am


but I was first for the last hat contest

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:28am


i need a quicker pc

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:29am

hope they receive that pain soon

hope they receive that pain soon....the cartel that is. I could do with a bit more fiat .)

Dr G
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:30am



But really, seeing that time that silver has spent above $35, and then recognizing that it has spent the majority of the past 4 weeks with a $34 handle, is just a bummer.

Dr G
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:32am

@Battle, the gold chart is

@Battle, the gold chart is screwed up as well (DPH posted it earlier).

Silver Danny
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:32am
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:33am

Hat Contest Entry

Silver 37.87

Gold 1787

Oil 97.87


PS Assumes the monkeys still set the price.

Gold Dog
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:36am


I can't seem to find your email addy.

Does the Turdite still have those Krugs for sale?


EDIT GoldDog2526[at]aol[dot]com will work.

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:38am

Prediction time

G 1845, S 36.45, C 88.25

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:39am

conservative guess

Silver: 33.40

Gold: 1754.00

Crude: 96.00

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:41am

34.62 1794.14 94.20




Oct 11, 2012 - 11:41am

11/9/12 closing prices

11/9/12 closing prices:

Silver 40.01

Gold 1845.13

Crude 106.16

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:42am

@Hat contest

G 1926.55

S: 42.97

O: 115.93

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:43am

No. 9.....10-11-12

Being 15th matters not...No. 9

The Beatles-Number nine
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:44am


13 ?

AU- 1798.06

AG- 34.86

Oil- 98.86

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:45am


Ag $ 43.91

Au $1955.24

Crude $ 103.97

Big L
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:46am

Wazzup with ZH?

Anybody else having problems loading ZeroHedge?

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:46am

Hat time

Gold- 1854.57

Silver- 41.21

Crude- 108.11

These guesses brought to you by the Ridge Tools calendar girl, ca. 1953. Because let's face it, the loss of our industrial base means that far, far fewer women in tights know how to properly clamp steel bar stock anymore.

Dr G Gold Dog
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:46am

I can't seem to find your

I can't seem to find your email addy.

I believe he was using "turdistheman[at]gmail[dot]com" for that. At the end of the blog post one or two posts ago, I think.

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:47am

Here it goes /SI-

Here it goes

/SI- 37.58



Oct 11, 2012 - 11:48am

Here it goes /SI-

Here it goes

/SI- 37.58



Oct 11, 2012 - 11:48am

What will the Errection outcome bid hold?

Silver - 36.57

Gold - 1724

Oil - 91.13

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:49am


Silver 34.85

Gold 1794.50

oil 103.49

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:50am

Irksome guesses

Silver: $37.18

Gold: $1846.10

Oil: $112.45

Gold Dog Dr G
Oct 11, 2012 - 11:50am

Thanks Doc

I had already made last weeks purchase when that posted.

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:50am


Silver 36.53

Gold 1836.53

Oil 93.65

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:51am


g: 1792

s: 36.20

c: 101.40

Oct 11, 2012 - 11:51am


Oil 94.75

Silver 43.75

Gold 1875

race on


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