Looking Ahead

Sat, Oct 6, 2012 - 12:56pm

Unfortunately, all the White-Out in the world wouldn't have been enough to hold back the BS of the BLS. So, after failing to get our breakout yesterday, we must regroup and reassess.

On the bright side the charts still look pretty clear and we'll get to them in a minute. First, we have to address the outrageous CoTs from yesterday.

Outrageous, disgusting and pathetic. These are just a few of the terms that could be used to describe the latest actions of The Cartels as well as the inaction of the CFTC. Despite all of the "good cop" bluster of "Thunderlips and Baldy", the remain collusive partners in crime and enablers of The Cartels. Here is the conclusive data:


Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $1602. Total Gold Cartel gross short position 291,358. Net short ratio 1.98:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: This is the Tuesday before the surprise announcement of QE∞. Price closed $1735. Total Cartel gross short position 380,239 (+30%). Net short ratio 2.66:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $1775. Total Cartel gross short position 405,520 (+7% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.98:1.


Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $27.85. Total EE gross short position 71,199. Net short ratio 1.49:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: Price closed $33.57. Total EE gross short position 79,478 (+11.6%). Net short ratio 2.47:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $34.67. Total EE gross short position 93,628 (+17.8% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.62:1.

Again, this is grotesque. In gold, The Cartel has doubled their net short ratio in this 6-week rally from $1602 to $1775, from roughly 2:1 to the current 3:1.

Silver is where the real outrage should lay. That the comically-ineffective CFTC has yet to conclude that manipulation exists is beyond belief. Not only did The Evil Empire (namely JPM) increase their gross short position by almost 12% during the initial rally pre-QE∞, they have sped up the issuance of unbacked paper by 50% in the days since! Note that, in the past three weeks alone, The EE has increased their gross short position by almost 18% to an unbelievably disgraceful 93,628 contracts. And, since the beginning of this rally, they have now increased their total net short position by 34,438 contracts for a change of +148%!!

Again, this is outrageous! In attempting to cap price and protect the buy-stops above $35.50, the EE has added 14,150 brand new paper short contracts in just the past three weeks. If forced to deliver and supply actual metal, this is the equivalent of 71,000,000 ounces of silver! Even using the worthless GFMS numbers, that's 10% of all silver to be mined in 2012! Again, the only word that comes to mind is outrageous.

<deep, calming breath>

<another one>

OK, please don't get discouraged, however. What these arrogant fools seemingly fail to understand is that their era has ended. Like a dinosaur across the planet from the Yucatan when the asteroid hit, they are continuing upon their merry way, unaware that the seeds of their destruction have already been sown. Physical demand plus other, pending extraordinary events will soon crush them. Patience, grasshoppah. You should be utilizing this time to continue padding your stack. You might also consider buying popcorn and other refreshments because, when this Cartel scheme finally collapses...and it soon will..the resulting fireworks show is going to spectacular.

Here are your charts for the week ahead. From the looks of it, we should probably expect 5 to 7 more trading days under this lousy cap. Time, however, is rapidly passing through The Witch's hourglass. Again, just be patient and you will be rewarded.

First, the clear technical rationale for the against-all-odds, desperate capping effort:

These 8-hour charts show the closing of longer-term "triangles":

And these RSI charts show that just a little more time may be needed to work off any remaining "over-bought" conditions:

So, that's all for now. I've nearly blown my entire Saturday morning putting this post together and I think it's time to go watch some football. I hope that you have a relaxing and fun weekend. More on Monday!!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 6, 2012 - 1:32pm

Have a good Weekend Everyone!

Hey TF, Don't sweat the small stuff!

Thanks for putting together the charts and post.

I 'unplugged' from the Matrix for a few days last week, and my head was much clearer.

Maybe go out to dinner with the family, or get ice cream, go fishing, a drive on a scenic road... stuff like that!

The Markets and it's Manipulators are going to do what they are going to do.


Oct 6, 2012 - 1:35pm

Oh, Turd

"other, pending extraordinary events"

You a such a tease.

In other news, I made my first trip to a local coin shop today...

I got there about 10 minutes after they opened and there were already five or six people. One guy bought a $1,000 worth of one oz. bars. Another was looking at 10s. There was a woman who was probably selling based on the downcast look on her face. I felt bad for her.

I asked the guy if this was normal level business. He said, no, they would probably be packed with buyers before the day was out. He told me he has been averaging about 16,000 rounds and ASE's per week for quite a while! I should have known better considering the shop is in the congressional district that has been electing Roscoe Bartlett since the invention of dirt.

I am very happy with my purchase and will probably become a regular. Their prices were competitive with the online sources I've used. I had to pay sales tax, but it wasn't any worse than the shipping & handling charges I'm used to paying.

On top of that, I'm heading out to my friends' place in the country for food, drink and some guitar playing. Happy Saturday!

Oct 6, 2012 - 1:37pm

Nice time to prepare the garden for fall

Thanks Turd, patients here is key!

Top ten and read/digested all the charts and analysis ;)

Here is a free download!


Admiral Ag Bar
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:40pm

just a thought...

...if the EE shorts are getting more concentrated, won't that make for an epic short squueeeeeeeeeeeeeeze?

Panicked shorts trying to cram through a narrow doorframe? I like it.

Thanks Turd for another great post.

Oct 6, 2012 - 1:42pm

A site listing pending and recent layoffs

Hard to believe the UE rate went down after looking at the info here:


Oct 6, 2012 - 1:47pm

Nice Coinage there Puck!

Imagine it... they try to call what was REAL MONEY... wait for it... Junk silver!

It is amazing that most people in their 30's or even 40's DON"T even know that our 'money' used to be real silver until 1964.

The Bank Tellers know, asI guess they should, it being their job to handle currency.

I was asking my friend if his sister- in law, who works at a Bank, could help us with coin rolls to search. Well, they played dumb about it, and come to find out she was setting aside all the silver and having her little brother trade it for Pot!

Oh the corruption never stops!

Oct 6, 2012 - 2:06pm

Harvey's Up!

Admiral Sprott sent his First Mate (John Embry) to KWN with an interesting assessment of gold price vis-à-vis its physical availability. Harvey gives his assessment of this weeks COT, Agnico fires striking miners after being burned out, Indian investors shift PM buying focus, and Cyprus looks to Russia for help; all this and more on the Harvey Report! https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/575629#comment-575629


Oct 6, 2012 - 2:11pm

Could It Be? Real-Time Data...

I'm a fan of Charles Biderman and Madeline Schnapp over at TrimTabs.

They study the real-time income tax withholding data/daily deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. From this real-time data they have historically, accurately forecast turning points in the labor market.


This site is honest and trustworthy. Over the years I have found their insights to be remarkably accurate.

Oct 6, 2012 - 2:21pm

Macaronic (don't try ironic)

er...thanks for that Monedas (viz. Sid The Sexist cf. Geordie Shore) Always knew you wild colonial boys had some culture (though you have kept it well hid).

Now all we need is some commentary on Blythe and The Situation.

Prize Fighter
Oct 6, 2012 - 2:22pm

What does this mean?


Gold will protect you in this transition. Silver will give you a cheap thrill followed by a spiritual experience devoid of a teacher.


I honestly don't know if he's saying silver will rise dramatically only to fall back or silver's rise will be huge. He doesn't speak much about silver so I can't even read between the lines here. Anyone?

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