Looking Ahead

354
Sat, Oct 6, 2012 - 12:56pm

Unfortunately, all the White-Out in the world wouldn't have been enough to hold back the BS of the BLS. So, after failing to get our breakout yesterday, we must regroup and reassess.

On the bright side the charts still look pretty clear and we'll get to them in a minute. First, we have to address the outrageous CoTs from yesterday.

Outrageous, disgusting and pathetic. These are just a few of the terms that could be used to describe the latest actions of The Cartels as well as the inaction of the CFTC. Despite all of the "good cop" bluster of "Thunderlips and Baldy", the remain collusive partners in crime and enablers of The Cartels. Here is the conclusive data:

GOLD

Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $1602. Total Gold Cartel gross short position 291,358. Net short ratio 1.98:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: This is the Tuesday before the surprise announcement of QE∞. Price closed $1735. Total Cartel gross short position 380,239 (+30%). Net short ratio 2.66:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $1775. Total Cartel gross short position 405,520 (+7% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.98:1.

SILVER

Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $27.85. Total EE gross short position 71,199. Net short ratio 1.49:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: Price closed $33.57. Total EE gross short position 79,478 (+11.6%). Net short ratio 2.47:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $34.67. Total EE gross short position 93,628 (+17.8% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.62:1.

Again, this is grotesque. In gold, The Cartel has doubled their net short ratio in this 6-week rally from $1602 to $1775, from roughly 2:1 to the current 3:1.

Silver is where the real outrage should lay. That the comically-ineffective CFTC has yet to conclude that manipulation exists is beyond belief. Not only did The Evil Empire (namely JPM) increase their gross short position by almost 12% during the initial rally pre-QE∞, they have sped up the issuance of unbacked paper by 50% in the days since! Note that, in the past three weeks alone, The EE has increased their gross short position by almost 18% to an unbelievably disgraceful 93,628 contracts. And, since the beginning of this rally, they have now increased their total net short position by 34,438 contracts for a change of +148%!!

Again, this is outrageous! In attempting to cap price and protect the buy-stops above $35.50, the EE has added 14,150 brand new paper short contracts in just the past three weeks. If forced to deliver and supply actual metal, this is the equivalent of 71,000,000 ounces of silver! Even using the worthless GFMS numbers, that's 10% of all silver to be mined in 2012! Again, the only word that comes to mind is outrageous.

<deep, calming breath>

<another one>

OK, please don't get discouraged, however. What these arrogant fools seemingly fail to understand is that their era has ended. Like a dinosaur across the planet from the Yucatan when the asteroid hit, they are continuing upon their merry way, unaware that the seeds of their destruction have already been sown. Physical demand plus other, pending extraordinary events will soon crush them. Patience, grasshoppah. You should be utilizing this time to continue padding your stack. You might also consider buying popcorn and other refreshments because, when this Cartel scheme finally collapses...and it soon will..the resulting fireworks show is going to spectacular.

Here are your charts for the week ahead. From the looks of it, we should probably expect 5 to 7 more trading days under this lousy cap. Time, however, is rapidly passing through The Witch's hourglass. Again, just be patient and you will be rewarded.

First, the clear technical rationale for the against-all-odds, desperate capping effort:

These 8-hour charts show the closing of longer-term "triangles":

And these RSI charts show that just a little more time may be needed to work off any remaining "over-bought" conditions:

So, that's all for now. I've nearly blown my entire Saturday morning putting this post together and I think it's time to go watch some football. I hope that you have a relaxing and fun weekend. More on Monday!!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  354 Comments

treefrog
Oct 6, 2012 - 12:59pm

first!

!rivet! !rivet! !kneedeep!

RRJJ
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:02pm

Thanks for the update Turd!

Thanks for the update Turd!

croc987
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:09pm

"Jobs report truthers" beware--MSM is onto you

The fearless and intrepid reporters at AP are busy exposing the "job truthers" who foolishly impugn the jobs report. Shame on them! They are probably gold and silver bugs too.

"Sasquatch might as well have traipsed across the White House lawn Friday with a lost Warren Commission file on his way to the studio where NASA staged the moon landing. Conspiracy theorists came out in force after the government reported a sudden drop in the U.S. unemployment rate one month before Election Day. Their message: The Obama administration would do anything to ensure a November victory, including manipulating unemployment data. The conspiracy was widely rejected. Officials at the Labor Department said the jobs figures are calculated by highly trained government employees without any political interference. Democrats and even some Republicans said they also found the charges implausible. Yet that didn't stop the chatter. The allegations were a measure of how politicized the monthly unemployment report has become near the end of a campaign that has focused on the economy and jobs."

https://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/oct/05/us-economy-skeptics/

LOL. New low in spin and mope?

Istack
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:09pm

I will try

to not get discouraged

Sisyphus
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:16pm

@croc987

"..the jobs figures are calculated by highly trained government employees.."

The Three Stooges Official Trailer #1 - Farrelly Brothers Movie (2012) HD
Sisyphus
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:19pm

Thanks Turd. Great post.

Will delay suicide for a few weeks. But I'll see your 5-7 trading days and raise it to 20-30. I have a feeling we're stuck until sometime in November.

This is based on the well-known technical technique known as WAG, and I'm usually wrong.

Zepher Stone
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:23pm

Happy Times for the Ruling Elite!!!

How long are people going to keep believing in Left and Right??? I'm sure the 152 year old moderator was thrilled to hear that entitlements for baby boomers will not be touched by BOTH candidates. Awesome! Let's keep pretending the elephant (and I don't mean Republican) is completely ignored for another 4 years while we pile on a few more trillion. Just an honest snapshot of the budget will reveal, even if you tax the rich 100%, you still will come nowhere close to balancing the budget. It's a non argument! So whatever they're arguing about is just smokescreen and mirrors, either way they win. They're rich Bitchez!!!

I tried breaking the silver game down with a couple of good friends yesterday. The psychological barrier of the mass normalcy bias is truly dynamic. After referencing USdebtclock.org and examining the unfunded liabilities > $120 trillion, both friends freely admitted to the oncoming debt bubble explosion, yet they were still paralyzed to do anything about it. Geez. But at least I got my friend with a family to stock some food.

ReachWest
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:26pm

Tiring

Thanks for the Charts and insight, Turd.

Sounds like we probably have another week or two of this capping BS to contend with - just enough time to place a couple of more physical orders.

This action certainly is tiring - but - I don't think any of us that have watched it for a protracted period should be surprised. The EE was never expected to go quietly into the night.

dropout
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:30pm

So Far, Same Old, Same Old

Gold is up $45.55/oz over this past month, but the real target for the EE is silver, up only $0.82/oz over this same time period.

I suppose we should be glad that they are up instead of down! But just think where they would be without the manipulated criminal actions of the EE. James Turk in todays Ed Steer's gold and silver report had some very interesting things to say about the situation; "Gold's value is calculated as a function of ever-inflating government-issued currencies." A chart in the report shows the major worlds cumulative total, central banks balance sheet, overlaid on gold's price rise since 2000.

If you don't subscribe to Ed Steer's daily gold and silver report, you really should consider it. Its free and is delivered to your email inbox, early each morning.

Monedas
Oct 6, 2012 - 1:31pm

The Patriotic Season !

In honor of the upcoming debates, elections, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years .... I translate same American Folklore for my fellow Turders ! Yankee Doodle (His "Noodle" i.e. Penis .... our randy but proper founders were uncomfortable with direct references to private parts !) .... went to town .... riding on his pony ! (He was out looking for some damsel action !) He stuck a feather in his cap ( He scored and was putting a hash mark on his "Rifle Butt" !) .... and called it macaroni ! ( He scored with an Italian immigrant's daughter down by the Jersey shore !) And with the girls be handy ! (This needs no explication, does it, Xty and Dagney ?) Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Colonial Perspectives For The Holy Days Tour

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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