And, in a stunning development...

We don't call it the BLSBS for nothing.

Magically, less than a month before the election, the U.S. unemployment rate falls an enormous 0.3% to come in at 7.8% and the lowest level of O'bottom's presidency. All you can do is laugh. Seriously. What a complete joke.

ZeroHedge has already deconstructed this entire fairytale and if you'd like to see some honest reporting, I suggest you click the following link:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/reason-todays-unemployment-rate-plunge-part-time-jobs-economic-reasons-surge-most-qe

And since there are no coincidences, check the math on this one and ponder the likelihood:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/odd-arima-x-12-statistical-aberration

So, whatever. They can say whatever they want. Just buy some more physical today. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Of course the metals were savagely beaten on the "data". Take a look at the 1-minute charts below. A couple of things:

  1. This makes 4 days out of 5 this week that prices were raided in order to keep them below critical resistance levels above which deep fields of buy-stops lay.
  2. Gold initially fell right at 8:30 but then the real hammer fell at 8:43. This attempt at a cascade was repelled though with a low of 1774.50. Why is this important? We've been watching the 1775 level all week as there are apparently significant physical bids at that level in London. So, is it a coincidence that gold stopped and reversed right at 1775? Of course not.
  3. Notice the resilience in silver during the 8:43 raid. While gold fell $12 in 3 minutes, silver "only" fell 20c.

The real story today is the continued weakness in the POSX. You'd think that after such a glorious employment report, The Pig would rally. Nope. Hmmmm....maybe those super-smart Forex guys can see through the BS after all? Look at this textbook example of a head-and-shoulders top. It's almost symmetrical in time period, too. (Obviously I printed this chart about 90 minutes ago and it is since stale in that The Pig has already broken down.)

At any rate, given the steep drop in The Pig, it's no wonder that the metals have recovered. Unfortunately, there continues to be stiff Cartel resistance selling that is capping this market. I had hoped that a buying surge on a "disappointing" BLSBS would overrun their positions but it wasn't meant to be. So, for now, we just have to be patient and hope that the metals can hold on today without further damage. Quite a few weak longs got flushed this morning on the drop from 1798 to 1775. As price rebuilds next week, much of that money will come back in and, when faced with the inexorable physical demand, 35 and 1800 will finally fail.

To that end, I am still supremely confident of an impending explosive and historic move. Delays, which I should have anticipated, have pushed back the timeline. However, the fundamental reasons for my confidence are still in place and unwavering. Vindication will soon be ours. Just keep utilizing this time to prepare.

I'll have some comments later regarding what should be an interesting CoT. For the week (9/26 - 10/2), gold rose by about $9 but total OI actually fell by 8600 contracts. Clearly there was short covering but by whom? And silver rose 73c on an open interest increase of 6000. Clearly there was buying of fresh, unbacked paper but who was buying and who was providing the paper? We'll have some answers by 3:30 so please check back later. I'll likely have a fresh, Saturday post, too.

Have a great day!

TF

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/3

10/3 9:45 ET S&P Manu PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/3 3:10 ET Goon Williams
10/4 10:00 ET JOLTS
10/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/5 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/5 9:45 ET S&P Services PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
10/6 8:50 ET Goon Mester
10/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/7 10:00 ET Goon Williams
10/7 11:25 ET Goon Kashnkari

Forum Discussion

by ag1969, Oct 3, 2022 - 7:25pm
by argentus maximus, Oct 3, 2022 - 12:16pm
by argentus maximus, Oct 3, 2022 - 8:32am
by Fish, Oct 1, 2022 - 8:36pm
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