Deja Vu...All Over Again

Thu, Oct 4, 2012 - 10:43am

Shit's gettin' old.

OK, The Bad Guys have been doing their Masters' bidding for three weeks now. Since the introduction of QE∞, the metals have been aggressively capped. Gold has been contained, first below 1780 and, ultimately, 1800. Why? Pull up a long-term chart. Once through 1800, gold will almost immediately press forward to 1850 and then 1900. Silver has been capped, too. The $35 level was defended first but the main target is near 35.50. Once above there, silver will quickly advance toward 37.50.

The Cartel defense of these levels has been consistent and aggravating. But also predictable. I mean, seriously, were you at all surprised by the beatdown earlier this morning? If you were, you haven't been paying attention. First, there was the Globex smackdown of 9/17 followed by similar action the next morning:

We gave it a week and it happened again:

Just three days later, they began attacking during the morning, instead:

The real desperation began this week. Here is Monday:

And Tuesday:

And after taking a break yesterday, they came back again today:

On the bright side, price has since rebounded somewhat while the dollar has continued to slide lower and the London PM fix was again quite busy with new multi-month highs in both $gold and eurogold. The remaining sand is rapidly pouring through the hourglass now and resolution to this seemingly endless capping event is near.

And a heads up. I bought another Dec12 $8 corn call this morning just as I suspected I would earlier this week. I like this chart a lot and we have another crop report due next week (I think). Regardless, a move here through $7.65 should lead to some additional short covering and fresh buying. This should shove corn back toward $7.85 and, once back above there, $8+ will soon follow.

Lastly, just an update on our bullion affiliation with GBI and the Hard Assets Alliance. Though I am still enamored with their platform for buying, storing and even trading metal, I certainly understood the frustration from some regarding their $35 "account setup fee". Apparently they've gotten enough negative feedback now that they've decided to do away with the fee. So, if you haven't already, I invite you to check out the HAA site. Your purchases there help to pay the bills here so please give them your consideration. Thanks!

I hope that everyone has a great day in preparation for what should be a very interesting BLSBS day tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 4, 2012 - 1:04pm

The silver dog

The silver disobedient dog is hanging well back today, so if it decides to catch up anything like my real dog does, it will be a really quick uptick to $35.5 ish if not beyond IMO ('Come on Boy!')

Dr G
Oct 4, 2012 - 1:06pm

Final push now for my $35

Final push now for my $35 close!

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:14pm


minutes at 2PM

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:14pm

I cashed out my oil play..

I cashed out my oil play.... perhaps too early... but I made a shit ton of fiat and that's all that matters.

I may take a less agressive stance on oil (compared to what I had been in) because I believe it is waaaay oversold - especially with the flames being turned up in that region of the world. I'll have to see how it goes, but today was a green day for me. I was up 100% on my Oct 5th $34.50 calls, so I cashed out.

reefman boatman
Oct 4, 2012 - 1:15pm

Thanks I had forgotten about

Thanks I had forgotten about that. Is it at 2:00 or 2:15?

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:16pm

@Reefman UCO

I'm glad I had the stones to buy it on the way down yesterday. Built up a significant position low 29's into the 28's, which I just closed out myself (partially).

Keeping a core position because I think the heat is just too heavy in MENA right now. With my DCA, I'm in the black for now.

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:21pm

Attempt #3

This is fun. Monkeys taking a spanking?

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:23pm

silver stocks

silvers doing nicely today.

silver wheaties, (and their warrants!)

pan am,

silver standard,


all up appreciably. others too.


Dr G
Oct 4, 2012 - 1:23pm

Fed minutes released at

Fed minutes released at 2.

EDIT: Ahh geez, the cap of last resort. Looks like we will get 34.99 just to make me look like a greater idiot than I already am. 2 minutes until open outcry closes.

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:24pm


While it feels good to sell into a rally taking profits, hate leaving money on the table (as UCO has run well past my sell point). So many bad trades to make up for . . .

Crude is running today. Guess Mr. Market is paying attention to the Turkey Syria news cycle or something (yeah right).

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:25pm

I am getting that orgasmic

I am getting that orgasmic feeling again regarding silver..... if I am wrong... then fuck me! But if I am right then fuck you Ben Bernanke!

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:30pm

The Four Horsemen Cometh

With WAR leading the way.

The Iranian elites are seeing their wealth destroyed by hyperinflation, caused in most part by the west. How to recoup their losses, placate the common Iranian people and redirect their anger outwards? Go to war.

Even a cornered rat will fight, usually by attacking since they have nothing left to loose. Syria and Turkey have stepped up toe-to-toe. Iraq continues to boil over as does Afghanistan. Egypt has reoccupied the Sinai with major military force. The US soon to have carrier group #3 in the region. Both Russia and China are actively involved in backing Iran and Syria. Now, how about we mix into this volatile brew a little Israeli saber rattling?

The "wild card" that the west continues to ignore, is the fact that historically, when violence breaks out in this region it takes the from of inter-tribal, inter-sectarian strife. When faced with violence from without, these people fall back on time honored tradition and family/religious ties.

This entire area is now so tinder dry and explosive, that one small spark will ignite a terrible conflagration.

Let us hope and pray that when it happens, not if, there will be some semblance of civilization left!

May we live in interesting times indeed!

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:32pm

Well done Dr G!

I tippeth your hatteth.

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:34pm

Sooner or later we will get all giddy together...

Sooner or later we will get all giddy together... it might as well be today... but what the heck - there is no way out for the central communist fascist planners. It's print or die!

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:38pm

Jamie gets a good slapping..

Dirty Deeds of Wall Street Rat
Big Buffalo
Oct 4, 2012 - 1:41pm

funny timing

so its almost two o'clock and silver is near or at the top capping.....hmmmmm...i wonder what's going to happen?

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:42pm


Your enthusiasm is infectious. But if we go above $40 the area around your computer will resemble the back of a NY taxi cab on a Saturday night.

PS: How's the $250,000 target going? Sounds like you're having major success.

Dr G
Oct 4, 2012 - 1:45pm

HA! Got it at close. Suck

HA! Got it at close. Suck that, Cartel!

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:49pm

Good job G!

Good job G!

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:53pm

Punch a banker in the face

punch a banker in the face
Oct 4, 2012 - 1:56pm

@Sisyphus, Options are had


Options are had to diagnose because they can be down a ton, and then pop up like a mofo... but to be honest I've got a lot of work to do to hit that target. I'm spreading at the moment because of the uncertainty, let's see what happens and I'll let you know around Christmas just how good or bad I've been! :)

"The learning curve is swift with this one".

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:56pm

titus a.

just logged in to say excellent charting and ty for the analysis.

Oct 4, 2012 - 1:59pm
Oct 4, 2012 - 2:00pm

As was pointed out

by someone far more knowledgeable than me, the Chinese, and all other holders of western paper fiat, do not want the $ to drop too quickly, as that would prevent them from swapping paper for real assets/pm's. Far better for them to keep the $ price decline stable/ pm's price rise controlled, and just drain the physical slowly as the Wests supplies allow, than bust the Cartel and lose the chance to swap paper for whatever metal remains. That said, when the time comes for reality to set in, the price of physical pm's will no doubt rocket!

So don't forget to swap some of your fiat profits for real stuff, and remember, every oz bought & stashed reduces the Cartels short selling power 100 fold!

Dr G
Oct 4, 2012 - 2:01pm

Here come the FOMC minutes.

Here come the FOMC minutes. Price is going to go higher on Globex. It's like those morons forgot exactly what was discussed at the last FOMC press conference. No, wait, it isn't like that, it is that.

Oct 4, 2012 - 2:04pm

Volume on NetDania going full retard on fed minutes

Check it out. Must Keep Gold Down.

Sell baby sell.


Oct 4, 2012 - 2:08pm

From ZH

FOMC Minutes Reveal Nothing New

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/04/2012 - 14:06 Bond Housing Market recovery

Same members, same voters, same views, same tools:


Oct 4, 2012 - 2:08pm


But another tool for selling the metals on the Globex

Oct 4, 2012 - 2:09pm
Oct 4, 2012 - 2:12pm

Ask yourself the following question.

How many more shorts can "they" add?

First...I think the answer is unlimited.

But, there is much more than meets the eye to that answer.

The real answer is not many. This is about to blow up in their face. The battle, here, right now, is incessant. "They" will be brought down, forced to cover and wait until you see the "engulfing" action on the candle when it does.

The excitement is ramping up.


ps. "They" better watch out or I'll post first again. Perhaps you recall what happened the last time I did.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Recent Comments

by Trail Trekker, 3 min 8 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 3 min 30 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 47 min 7 sec ago
by Marcus, 2 hours 17 min ago