Palpable Desperation

Tue, Oct 2, 2012 - 11:16am

As we approach the end of this current consolidation and capping effort, the efforts of The Bullion Banks to keep price capped are getting increasingly desperate. Again, as Turd's Old Man says: Let om! They're going to lose.

What The Cartel doesn't seem to grasp is this basic rule: "When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you do is stop digging". The stupid, arrogant jerks just won't give up. QE∞ has long been predicted by The Turd, Santa et al, it was formally announced by The Bernank three weeks ago and it was confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt just yesterday by Fed Goon Evans. Nevertheless, they just keep issuing paper metal at a frantic pace in a desperate attempt to cap price and contain it below $1780 and, ultimately, $1800. Why are these levels worth defending, you ask? Here's a reminder:

And so, for the third consecutive day, we have seen aggressive capping of price at, or just above, $1780. Again I'll use the word "desperate". No doubt about it. There is some serious panic setting in. Paper price is extremely vulnerable to a quick, $100+ move but the banks can't jack the price lower because of the continuing, robust demand for physical in London. What to do, what to do? Desperation, indeed.

And so then you get a day like today. The metals were unusually strong in the pre-open and looked poised to catapult higher once the Comex was up and running. Paper metal was thus gathered and dumped right at the 8:25 silver Comex open. Note all of the big, blue candles on the charts below indicative of direct attempts to keep the pressure on and rein in price.

But here's the thing: They are almost of of time. The window is closing. You can clearly see it in the charts below. The trend is higher and once their little defense line runs into it (by Friday?), price will almost assuredly burst higher. Perhaps the BLSBS data on Friday will provide the impetus? Who knows? All I know is that this 3-week effort to cap price is about to blow up in their faces.

And The Pig may be ready to provide a spark, too. The rally set off by the announcement of QE∞ appears to have run its course. Though there is still a chance that the POSX will extend toward 82 in order to create a head-and-shoulder top, it is far more likely that the "Calvin" bounce is already over. Watch the 79.65 level (cash) very closely as a decisive drop through there will signal 79.40 and points south.

Just a couple of news items for you. First, "Squeaky" over at PIMCO has released his latest newsletter. I'm posting a link for you simply because it seems so surreal to have the manager of the world's largest mutual fund sound so much like a Turdite:

Here's an interesting link that shows bullion sales year-to-date:

And, somehow, I have a hunch that these three stories should be linked together: & &

Finally, there's still time to register at TTM and participate in the webinar tomorrow with James Turk of GoldMoney. The site is great fun (maybe a member can comment on the intensity of yesterday's podcast wink) and we'll be hosting events like this on a regular basis going forward.

Have a great day and get ready for an increasingly volatile remainder of the week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Hard Rain · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:18am

Top 5

Must be my lucky day...gonna buy some silver.

thisismynewname · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:18am

Sometimes it just works out?


Edit - Just finished reading the comments from the previous thread and clicked on the main TF Metals link and couldn't believe my eyes - 5 reads and no comments! I thought I had it!

Cononish1314 · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:20am


That's Welsh for "five".

Mr. Fix · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:20am


To my friends in Turdville: Maybe I am a little bit late, but I would like to take a go at Green Lanterns query about velocity. I don't think there will be any in the foreseeable future. The system is frozen, and as far as I'm concerned the powers that be will be quite content to let it remain that way until it all collapses. As for the reason for the "Breathtaking Audacity", I think that they are in fact related. What we are witnessing is by far the greatest heist in human history. There can be no doubt about this. The money printing is theft plane and simple. The guys running the printing presses know full well that this is all coming unglued very soon. I suspect that they have already agreed upon what our replacement currency will be after our current system collapses. At some point, people will have to exchange there nearly worthless Federal Reserve notes in for something that can be used for a currency. It does not matter if it is electronic money, or a gold backed hard currency, I think the plan is to have an enormous amount of federal reserve notes stashed away for the great reset. When it happens, trillions of dollars stolen, will become billions of dollars in the bank's vaults. Billions of dollars stolen by individual bankers, will become millions of dollars in their personal savings accounts. And millions of dollars worth of precious metals will still be millions of dollars worth of precious metals. After this all plays out, then, and only then, will there be any hope for any real velocity of money. It has been said repeatedly that we are in the “endgame”. I'm not expecting any genuine velocity until we get to the other side. This would also completely avoid the entire hyperinflationary argument. It may also be the only possible scenario that the bankers might expect to survive, because it would at least leave the masses with a little bit of something to live on. Otherwise, a hyperinflationary crash would probably cause most of the richest .01% to wind up in their local morgue. Keep stacking!

BJ Penn Forever · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:22am

Blomberg does not adjust for inflation?

Even in this little silver discussion on Bloomberg this chick does not even mention inflation adjustment when discussing the 1980 $50 dollar target for silver. Some punk in a Kiplingers article did the same thing when trying to say silver was a bad bet.

Bollocks · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:24am

Not again?


Monty Python- Architect Sketch
BJ Penn Forever · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:25am

Is Greg Mannarino a decent

Is Greg Mannarino a decent news analysis source for those of us without backgrounds in finance and economics who can not understand half of the contend on

Istack · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:26am
Istack · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:28am


I like that a lot!

BagOfGold · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:40am

Turd...will PM bugs have a "religous experience" today?...

Let's start at $1790 gold...& see if we go to $1804!...We will get the last laugh!...This message is brought to you by The Church Of The Eternal Laughter Of The Infinite Souls!!!...

Bag Of Gold

benque · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:41am

COT or cap

Whats it gonna be jamie ya little twerp? Paint the COT, or cap the price? Ya can't have it both ways. Your little mindfk games are real close to blowing up in your face, and I for one will take great pleasure in seeing you go down!

Cononish1314 · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:45am

Paper Dispensation

So far we've been repressed by The Church of the Poisoned Mined.

benque · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:53am


Looks to me like 10 times gold has hit the ceiling at $1780 over the last 2 days. If we get through today, or tomorrow morning, I don't see $1800 being much problem (if any at all) for several days least. If we don't make it through real soon, longs may retreat to regroup around what? $1750?

Mr. Fix · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:55am

Just Keep Stacking!!!

The desperation by our banker buddies is becoming far more profound today. By simply looking at the dollar chart, and comparing it to the gold and silver charts, it is plain to see that they are in fact beating it down with more gusto than usual today. If they had simply left it alone, the price would be skyrocketing. The amount of on that paper being sold to counteract the dollar collapse must be staggering. This cannot possibly last!

heyJoe · Oct 2, 2012 - 11:57am

Yesterday's TTM Podcast

Turd gave a concise summary of the Fed's comments and what arrogant scumbags these people are (Evans and Berbank). What these people are doing to our economy is criminal. They believe their actions function in a vacuum with little impact on people.

Turd talked a bit about the Fed's policy and what effect this has on his parents. His folks primarily live on a fixed income (Social Security) and a small amount of savings. Both items are being devastated by ZIRP and the big lie that inflation is under control. 

I got a bit choked up because my parents are experiencing similar problems. Also, after 31 years in the financial planning business primarily working with retirees and seeing their struggles, I am leaving the industry because I can no longer provide reliable advice.

I really enjoy these daily podcasts because they cover a broad range of topics and express many of the same views and frustrations I have. It is assuring to hear other people express these thoughts, realizing I am not alone.

· Oct 2, 2012 - 11:58am

GL, Pining, Velocity, and a Thought

Fantastic observations from the both of you, as always! Turd pointing out the technical picture, it all comes together.

Let's start with some facts, not guesses, or speculation, but facts, and let's build to a conclusion.

(1) BB announced QE to infinity, minimum $40 Billion per month, added to already existing $45 Billion per month for previous operation twist; grand total of $85 Billion per month, for a total over $12 Trillion per year, of NEW FRN creation, whether styled as "reserve" or not, thus:

(2) BB will print $1 Trillion in the next year.

(3) GL speaks of velocity. That $1 Trillion will be parked at the FED as "reserves" and not reaching the economy absent some serious lending by the big banks. True.

(4) There are a dearth of borrowers wanting to access any loans; hence, no velocity of the parked FRN's into the economy.

(5) BB understands that the USA economy is based on consumption, not savings and investment. Hence, CONSUMERS are key to the economic "recovery."

(6) Consumers are massively underwater, stuck in artificially inflated homes, and trapped in a declining wage spiral, hence, no growth in spending (consumption).

(7) Absent some "feel good" news, MOPE, what have you, consumers are NOT spending. Period.

(8) Who then, can resuscitate "consumption?"

Part 2 to follow.

Big Dutch · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:01pm

Picked Wrong Day

To quit smoking. Heading out to get a pack. Maybe silver will be up a buck when I get back.

benque · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:01pm

No lunch for Blythe today

Sneakyleaker close to bursting, monkeys getting unruly, snarling, scratching, and straining at their chains.

Fear is in the air, in the lair of the witch.

agNau · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:05pm

Just a few short weeks longer...

Of Bennies fingers and toes in the dike.......and the one is ceremoniously placed in his throne. I foresee a return to an old form of recognition of heroes(Now for a Dictator)...... That would be a parade through the streets of New York, complete with the new form of ticker stamps! With Bennie @ the controls of the helicopter obligionally showering the adoring! *Attendance is Mandatory!

indosil · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:13pm

Thanks Turd

Thanks Turd......this week's COT should be bloody interesting......hands are itchy to roll the dice....Silver at $45-50 by year's end will be ORGASMIC

agNau · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:15pm


Interesting similarity to Silver behavior.....lagging somewhat. Copper is supposed to indicate growth/industrial use. Looks to me like we are seeing the calm,......shakeout....before the stormy rise. Devaluation/inflation will raise all ships of tangible assured.

thecoloredsky · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:17pm


This whole Benghazi thing is ridiculous. There is no consulate, nothing on the State Dept website says otherwise. What was a diplomat doing in Benghazi? There was an article that said he was there with soldiers or some armed US inspector-types trying to find weapons caches and disable them permanently. Really? A Diplomat actively engaged in espionage? Nothing adds up, the media hasn't lifted a finger investigating it, and now its deemed a terrorist attack. If a bunch of people were going around destroying caches of weapons in my neighborhood I would be pretty pissed. And on top of that, this "consulate" or "compound" or "home with a swimming pool" or "whatever the flavor of the day nonexistent house in the outskirts of Benghazi" cannot even be verified. But its ok, that isn't important anyways.

Dr G · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:17pm

Always love me some Schiff.

Always love me some Schiff. In this video he speaks to the potential that silver has and how it will allow many to catch up to the move they may have missed in gold. Also covers his thoughts on QE and Bernanke:

SilvBel · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:31pm

Silver very volatile

Silver very volatile today

You know what's coming .. I can smell a silver/gold margin hike is just around the corner

Colonel Angus · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:32pm


I think we will see velocity pick up. There are people sitting on FRNs that are just getting debased quickly. *At some point* people will recognize the palpable debasing of their wealth and put that money into something tangible, whether it is our beloved shiny, some farmland, bricks, corn, anything that won't lose its value like the US Reichsmark. When will that happen? Well, without Johnny Carson to divine the answers in the envelopes, I'm simply no Karnak.

Let me say this- it has happened for me already. If I get my hands on FRNs, they are out of my hands in no time at all. I understand the devaluation of currencies, so when I can borrow at 3% when the real value of inflation is at least double and maybe triple that, I'm willing to borrow and spend. Most Muppets, er, consumers don't yet see this. They are too busy worried about the $100,000 house note or the $25,000 car note to think about the price of next week's lunch. Some of us have cars that are paid off and have taken bigger home loans to invest the USD into something of real value. Everyone should read Parsson's book "The Dying of Money" if they get a chance. I found a copy in the university library so that I didn't have to shell out $300 for a copy of it. The people who did best after Weimar Germany were those who indebted themselves up to their eyeballs to buy tangible items. Someone would buy a load of 10,000 bricks and in one year, sometimes less, sell one brick for the cost of the 10,000 they had previously bought, paying off their debt and keeping 9999 bricks for a project. Now think in terms of the precious. Would you indebt yourself for 10k ounces of silver if you could pay it off in a year from now with just a few ounces? Why wouldn't you?

So here's the question- how close are we to Weimar? Only indebt yourself up to the level that you can make the minimum payments for a couple of years. Otherwise the repo man might come after you. Of course if you're not afraid of the possibility of filing bankruptcy and not afraid to go boating with PMs, maybe you can sneak your way out of debt. I DO NOT RECOMMEND THIS as it is dishonest, but I know of many who think it is fair for what the bankers have done to us. You must make up your own mind on this one.

Velocity will rise, but it will take a "eureka" moment from the Muppets. Those of us here should know better and should be the first actors so that we will be ok on the other side.

dgstage · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:37pm


Any time frame for fall??

mapleleaf · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:40pm

Silver Lease Rate

The lease rate for silver has been drifting downward for a couple of months. It's now just a hair above -0.5%. The last two times it reached this low (early December, and late February) silver got pounded for several dollars each time. If memory serves the same thing happened in Sept. 2011 as well. I don't pretend to understand how the two are related, but there are enough data points to show a trend.

It's possible the table is being set for another smackdown shortly. On the other hand, even if this is true, has the game changed enough so that what would have been (a year or two ago) a drop of several dollars over several weeks, now might fizzle into a brief dip over a few days?

Stackers need not worry, of course. But I have some paper too, and am thinking about converting some to fiat and hope for a dip then add more phyzz. I hope I don't outsmart myself here. I think I fear missing a big move up more than trying to get cute with trading. Probably will just sit tight.

Silver_investor · Oct 2, 2012 - 12:42pm

@BJ Penn Forever

I recently started following Gregory Mannarino's channel on Youtube. He is very sharp. As a former floor trader for Bear Stearns in the 1990s, Greg knows how the game is played. What I really like about him is that he conveys things in a way that nearly everyone can understand. I think he's a good guy. And he consistently exhorts his viewers to become their own central bank--by converting their fiat to physical gold and silver.

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