Ryder Cup Friday

Fri, Sep 28, 2012 - 10:31am

I try to be here every day but The Ryder Cup only comes around once every two years.

So, today's post is going to be a bit brief. The Home Squad is currently trailing and they are in desperate need of my support from my sofa.

All you need to know about the metals is everything you've learned over the past two weeks. The Cartels are desperate to contain price below $1780 and $35. Knowing this, the specs are reluctant to drive price through those levels for fear of reprisal. The latest attempts to "storm the hill" at 1780 resulted in mass casualties and a pound back to 1770. Who wants to be next? Anyone? Anyone??

The rally in the euro/decline in The Pig yesterday helped crude find a bit of a short-covering bottom. Unless it reverses and makes new lows soon, it likely won't see the 85-87 area. More probable is a pullback to $90+ and then a breakout higher, back through $94. At that point, you'd have a sweet little reverse head-and-shoulder bottom off of a textbook 10% correction. We'd also have a pretty attractive buying opportunity on our hands. Watch closely over the next week.

And my corn is jumping back today after a very bullish USDA report showing that the level of previously-harvested corn "in the bins" is down 12% from a year ago. Just wait until the magnitude of the losses from this year are finally revealed! At any rate, a reversal in corn looks to be at hand. (Again, I am the proud owner of two Dec12 $8 calls so I definitely have a vested interest in a rebound/rally.)

And today is the last trading day of September and the end of the 3rd quarter. Some time ago, Thunderlips had promised us that he'd conclude the 4-year silver "investigation" by the end of September. Hellooo?? Thunderlips! Anybody home?!? Helloooo...

Cricket Sound

And, finally, I was interviewed again last night by Rahul at Alt-Investors. This time was a bit different as The Doc from https://www.silverdoctors.com was on the call, too. I was also into my third Goose Island "Summertime" when we began the call so if I sound a bit more giggily and groggy, I apologize. This was fun nonetheless and I think you'll enjoy it.

Video unavailable

As I close and go to hit send, I see that the only U.S.-associated item that is rallying is The Pig. The metals and The Ryder Cup team are both getting spanked. Oh well, keep the faith. I'll have a new podcast interview for you later today so please check back for that as well as some instant analysis of the CoT numbers, which might be kind of interesting this week.

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


foscotanner · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:36am

yoyo time

metals up and down in a tight range.

frustrating day

wow - 4th! I reckon I would have been first if i had skipped reading the post. Silly me. I'll learn.....

H - original · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:41am

Top Ten on Ryder Cup Weekend!

Good omens for metals and the European team :D

Patrancus · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:41am

Double bogie 5

In the hole

Mr. Fix · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:41am


Now I can get back to lurking.

Short Stack · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:41am

Turd's up early this mornin'

Saw gold pass 1780 last night but this morning back to 1771.+ so I guess those in China and India aren't too happy with the higher spot prices.

Still looking for two more beat-downs between now and Friday next week. But if they're anything like the last one, the spot should recover nicely in a short time. 

Now, where's that dry-powder ?

JJ Butler · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:47am

Mass Casualties

"The latest attempts to "storm the hill" at 1780 resulted in mass casualties and a pound back to 1770."

Too funny!

wildstylechef · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:47am


FIRST AT LAST MAY THE GOLD gods grant me many ounces!

thanks Turd!

Looks to me that perhaps the fed is feeding the pig as to combat inflation because that's a number of days where the pig has made spectacular gains at the US open for no reason, well other than the fact that perhaps Europe is realizing they are a disaster and Geitner’s gift to Europe of unlimited US dollar swaps so Europe gets to buy as much US currency as it needs every time they are looking like the disaster that they are

thesandbox · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:48am

more world taxes....

https://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/09/27/as-un-opens-its-general-assembl... A 1 percent tax on billionaires around the world. A tax on all currency trading in the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling. Another “tiny” tax on all financial transactions, including stock and bond trading, and trading in financial derivatives. New taxes on carbon emissions and on airline tickets. A royalty on all undersea mineral resources extracted more than 100 miles offshore of any nation’s territory. The United Nations is at it again: finding new and “innovative” ways to create global taxes that would transfer hundreds of billions, and even trillions, of dollars from the rich nations of the world — especially the U.S. — to poorer ones, in line with U.N.-directed economic, social and environmental development....MORE

tobydaniel · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:49am

I sure hope 34.50 is not the new 27.50

Remember folks, we touched 27.50 over 50 times..... Gosh I hope we do not repeat!!!!

Cleburne61 · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:49am

The JPM Cotton Fine

Guys, the $600k fine on JP Morgan today for violating speculative position limits in cotton back in 2010 isn't finely the point.

The point is, silver position limit enforcement begins in 2 weeks' time, and notice the language used at the end: the CFTC just issued a cease and desist order to JP Morgan on further violations of position limit statutes.

To me this is a big deal. It comes right before October 12th, it's not about the money, it's about the strongest possible language used in this warning to the perpetrators.

Let's see what the next several weeks brings, shall we?

Swineflogger · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:50am

Bix Just Posted

CFTC Orders JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. to Pay $600,000 Civil Monetary Penalty for Violating Cotton Futures Speculative Position Limits

Silver next??????????

thisismynewname · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:51am

Just missed it!


Edit - some stats on the Great AG Bull market of '02: 

For the current year- AG is beating the major stock market averages. AG +25%, NASDAQ +20%. If you were a buy and hold investor, AG was a better investment than the DOW for any year of the past 22, except last year - and for that year, the DOW is currently winning by a tiny 3.5%. I expect this number to be taken out shortly. 

SilverTree · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:52am

Silver next??????????

God I hope so!

ballyale · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:53am

According to Debka, Iran doesn't think an attack is imminent.


1. They estimate that the United States and Israel have shelved plans for an imminent military strike on Iran’s nuclear program.

2. And if a surprise attack is nonetheless launched, thousands of Iranian elite troops will be on hand to menace Israel from the Syrian border without delay.

Also, about 3 articles as to the NecCons' wanting to do a "False Flag" attack on

U.S. ships or troops to start a war with Iran or rachet up covert ops. inside Iran such

that Iran will react.

The only good news is that Ahmadinejad's supporters have been either arrested

or removed from office. This more than anything, might help stave off War for awhile.

The Israelis just freak out everytime the A guy talks about eliminating Israel from

the history books. Anyway, his podium will be taken away from him in a few months.

· Sep 28, 2012 - 10:57am

And listen to this

The Doc was telling me about this last night. Totally credible and right in line with other reports I have received.

ALERT: Scotiabank Tries to Talk SilverDoctors OUT of Buying Physical Silver!
underwaterfrog · Sep 28, 2012 - 10:58am

Encouraging action

Dow -100, USDX & treasuries rallying Gold and silver flat. Good to see that tether to the indexes giving a little. Positive day from where I'm sitting.

Big Buffalo · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:00am


Super tight range today = boring.

Come on volatility!

Bought a put on RIMM today, come on, is anybody really going to buy a Blackberry when Apple and Android products are available. They are so slow to react. CEO on CNBC this morning...what a bore.

agNau · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:01am

Interesting bounce points on multiple related fronts....

could have bet on the spot actually.....and I actually did. T/A is valid. Technical areas are targets for the manipulation. Both the extremes of investment we follow(multiples at the extremes ie all the vehicles of money investment)were capped/supported, gaps filled, S/R, etc. I still believe it to be a very valuable tool.

Dr G · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:03am

Will this be the second week

Will this be the second week in a row that silver closes NY trading at 34.65? Could be. Stay tuned to find......ZZZzzzzZzzZZzz

paulocarvalho · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:03am

A Short Study in Bonds, Debasement, and Decline

The Spanish tax burden was very unevenly distributed: it fell more on the poor than the rich, heavily on the agricultural sector, and on Castile far more than Aragon or the Basque country. But the Spanish government's expenditure continued to climb: - in the first twelve years of Philip III's reign, he spent over 40 million ducats on the Low Countries' wars alone (a ducat is a small gold coin weighing about 3.5 grams.)
To cover the shortfall, the Spanish government both borrowed money - by the issue of juros (interest-bearing state bonds) - and assigned the revenues from future years to the bankers if they would pay the defense contracts for the present year. 
By 1607 the government had a debt of almost 23 million ducats and had assigned away all its revenue for four years ahead.
By 1644 the crown's income was pledged to 1648; and by 1664 the crown owed more than 21 million ducats.
Lacking any real money the government periodically had to pay the interest owed on the juros by issuing more juros - but people were not overly keen to buy these new juros since they were none too confident that the interest would be paid.

A sixteen maravedis copper coin of Philip IV

Another extreme expedient was the issue of "vellón" coins - vellón was worthless copper, sometimes with a tiny amount of silver added. The government forced its employees and creditors to accept this token currency, and the issues of 1636, 1641, and 1654 each made about five million ducats profit for the crown. But the debased coins simply produced inflation and confusion in the economy.
With Spanish finances in so parlous a state, a misfortune such as Piet Heyn's seizure of the Spanish treasure fleet in 1628 became a disaster. The only beneficiaries from the weakness of Spanish government finances were Spanish noblemen, from whom the crown borrowed so heavily that they held an effective stranglehold on the monarchy.

Cononish1314 underwaterfrog · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:12am

Feeling a bit better as gold

Feeling a bit better as gold is touching £1100 and silver is holding up above £21.40.

(It's only some fiat-on-fiat action.)

SV · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:15am

Gold, Silver, Platinum Biggest Gains Since 2010, 1987

Gold and silver have seen their biggest gains since 2010 while Platinum has seen its biggest since at least 1987! Biggest quarterly gains as ECB, BoJ, and Bernankster announce their QEEEE's


proformatrillionaire Nigel Black · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:17am

@ Nigel Black

This will have a far greater positive impact on the price of silver than "strong" language from the CFTC regarding the enforcement of position limits. LOL = CFTC enforcement.

Dagny Taggart · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:20am

Endeavour Silver Videos

Probably already posted here, but a great reminder for stacking inspiration...

Endeavour put together these short videos on silver supply and demand: https://dagnytaggart55k.blogspot.com/

BagOfGold Dagny Taggart · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:37am

DT...If you like Endeavour Silver & Bradford Cooke...

You may want to put a few pennies aside...& buy some Canarc Resource Corp!...Here's why...


Look at the grades...over 1.1 million ounces of gold...with over 12 gpt...& a share price of only 15 cents!...When this one moves...it will be a "religious experience"!...By the way...you have a nice website!!!...

Bag Of Gold

usk · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:39am

The doc brings to us the best new of the day

In what could prove to be a game changer for the cartel, India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) announced Thursday the launch of 2 new silver contracts, including a contract for deliverable 1 kg silver bars.


I agree. This is NOT good news for LBMA.

Beastly Stack · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:40am

Explosion point

Right now!

Dollar @80,can it hold and go higher?

Equities nearing the lows,could get ugly but then we have QE!

I have huge Balls but this is a scary inflection point!

Edward G · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:44am

Golf Clap...

We are on different teams till Monday TF !

BJZimmy · Sep 28, 2012 - 11:47am

Euro Crash Coming Soon

My boss hired a Chinese student who recently graduated with a Masters in Finance / Financial Markets. He is nothing short of brilliant, and has studied the markets nonstop for us for the last year. He says:

  1. Europe will crash ‘soon’, with Germany leading the charge because their export markets in Europe will collapse as the neighboring countries backslide.
  2. That will (of course) drag us down next. The Euro will drop in value, and generate immense competition against our export products.
  3. China – which is already in trouble – will slide down the railing next, completing a trifecta of misery.

Kind of what I’ve felt all along ever since the Euro starting biting it.

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