Drifting Down Dismal River

Thu, Sep 27, 2012 - 9:50am

Not a fun place to be, even though they say it's beautiful this time of year.

Wow! What a bunch of lousy economic data we got this morning! Just terrible. I mean...I suppose it could be worse. GDP could print a negative number and really freak out LIESman but +1.25% is pretty terrible, especially when you consider the trend. Over 4% in Q42011, 2.0% in Q12012 and now this. It looks like "output" keeps getting cut by half with each, successive quarter. And you wonder why The Bernank couldn't wait to start QE∞?


Having both data points released near the Comex open provided a brief surge in the metals this morning. However, a concerted effort continues to keep both metals down for the week. Take a look at these charts:

So, we'll see what happens today. First Notice Day for the Oct12 gold contract is tomorrow so expect some volatility as current holders are "coerced" out of standing for delivery. Support still looks quite firm below 1750 so, as yesterday showed, I think it's doubtful we'd fall much through there. And Silver is very firm above 33.50 and is being purchased in size at that level in London. So, hang in there. Let's just get through this week and see where we go from here once the new quarter begins next week.

Have a great day!


p.s. There really is a Dismal River. It runs through the sandhills of Nebraska. Here are a few pics.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 184


Patrancus · Sep 27, 2012 - 9:52am
Patrancus · Sep 27, 2012 - 9:54am

Take me to the river

Take Me To The River - Talking Heads
Nana · Sep 27, 2012 - 9:55am

Down By The River

Peace and quiet, serenity...

Be Prepared · Sep 27, 2012 - 9:58am

Quote of the Day....

The government never worked for us. It just used to have far less power to work against us.

Dr G · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:01am

Thanks for the chillax update

Thanks for the chillax update :)

Nice to see both metals holding steady in the face of capping. If this week was an attempt to push both metals lower, it didn't work too terribly well. Sure, they are both down, but not by much. I'll take that.

Maybe with a bit of luck we can close green for the week. Baby steps sometimes.

SamSchlepps · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:03am

Acting Man and Lassonde PDF - FYI SRSrocco

I always find worth a read and a bonus PDF on gold


direct link to Pierre Lassonde Monday 10th September 2012 Denver Gold Forum


boatman · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:06am

THE GREAT GAME.......reprint from end of last thread

The Great Game

An astute reader from Atlanta named Ken wrote the following in a letter to me:

"It seems that the game plan (for financial heavyweights) is to buy assets, real things that can't be papered away by the government, and pay back with depreciated dollars."

Ken gets it. Ken understands the Great Game as it is being played at the highest levels of our monetary system. The Game has two halves: going long the real, and short the symbol. That is, going long real assets by owning them, and going short the dollar and the financial system by selective and advantageous borrowing. That way if you are a hedge fund manager, CEO or "private equity" investor who has essentially gambled the world monetary system on your speculations, and you collapse the financial markets and the value of the dollar when you guess wrong - you don't jump out the office window. Instead, you enjoy an extraordinarily lucrative early retirement.

the rest at:


boatman · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:07am


Pater is THE defacto eurozone expert.................imo.

Be Prepared · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:07am
Katie Rose · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:07am

adding to my dismal future projections by

adding another half ton of grains with hulls for my animals. I'll be sprouting them over the Winter and into the Spring so the farm animals can have fresh, vitamin rich greens.

So far my Redneck Fodder Experiment is showing me that there is a reason the pros are charging $4000 + for their automated systems, but I am not going to give up!

So as things unwind, don't forget to prep for your animals! I don't know what I'd do without my wonderful dog. heart

BagOfGold · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:12am
¤ · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:15am

QE3 Will Usher In Eminent Domain: Intended By-Product?

This has been a super obvious way to clear the real estate market to myself from the beginning... just remove and take inventory off the market and hold it for later resale when the market clears. The removal of the properties themselves helps clear and thin the market out.

I'm not advocating eminent domain but merely recognizing the opportunity TPTB must realize they have before them.

The Fed (a private bank) will become (already is?) the largest quasi-landlord ever known. The potential for them to turn the largest distress sale in history into something much larger and mostly unforeseen looms large imho.


September 27, 2012 1:58 pm

US housing plan aims to woo bondholders

Proponents of a controversial US housing plan that would use local governments’ compulsory purchase powers to seize distressed home loans are wooing bondholders with improved financial terms.

The plan involves using government powers known as “eminent domain” that are commonly used to force homeowners to sell their property to make room for public projects such as new roads.

Mortgage Resolution Partners, advised by Evercore Partners and Westwood Capital, has proposed that governments should instead use that authority to seize mortgages worth more than the underlying property and write down borrowers’ excess housing debt in hopes of averting default. The owners of the loans would receive compensation at fair market value.

MRP is initially targeting 5,000 home loans, at a potential cost of about $750m, owned in private label securities. The company is attempting to raise hundreds of millions of dollars from institutional investors, with the money to be used by local authorities to buy loans. The new mortgages would be sold and the proceeds divided between the local government and the investors.

Billed as a solution to the housing crisis that still blights some US neighbourhoods, MRP’s proposal has, however, encountered opposition from bondholders, lenders and Wall Street who argue that MRP and its backers profit while the compensation is insufficient. They are backed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, a US regulator.

In response to the objections, MRP may allow bondholders a say in deciding which loans are bought out from mortgage securities and at what price, according to people close to the plan....


indosil · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:16am



Ivars has been making some great calls of late.......The containment of AG & AU is beyond belief...they really should have rocketed up on these couple of shitty news...let's hope it gets better for us with each passing day....and it sure will

Mr. Fix · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:17am

Drifting Down Dismal River

That's exactly how I feel today.

At least I have company.

Be Prepared · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:18am

Identity Fraud Okay for Undocumented Immigrants

Identity Fraud Okay for Undocumented Immigrants

Since Congress introduced the DREAM Act in 2001, countless thousands of words have been published about the high school students’ supposed outstanding character. Each of the hundreds of stories has emphasized that the so called DREAMers, generally age 16-30, are American in every way except they don’t hold citizenship. Having taught in California public school, I know that claim may be true—to an extent.

But earlier this month, we learned that many “childhood arrivals” are guilty of identity theft. Some deferred action applicants have multiple identity fraud incidents in their histories. In the criminal world, stealing or fabricating social security numbers and applying them to a new name is known as synthetic identity fraud—basically creating a new person.

According to a Washington Post September 13 story, dozens of illegal alien applicants were hesitant to submit their paperwork to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) since they feared that as part of the process their long histories of identity fraud and theft would be revealed. Crystal Williams, executive director for the American Immigration Lawyers Association, pleaded that she hoped that: “there would be some understanding on the part of the government that, yes, this [identity fraud] is a necessary part of living in the shadows.”

You may need a few minutes to let the magnitude of Williams’ outrageous statement set in. Williams, one of the nation’s most prominent lawyers albeit one with a strong pro-open borders agenda, lobbied for disregarding a crime (identity theft) when its perpetrated on top of an already existing crime (illegal entry) and also when it facilitates an alien’s ability to receive work authorization.

The ACLU’s wish is the USCIS’s command! Within a day after the ACLU issued its request, USCIS wrote new, more alien friendly regulations. Originally, question 9 on the I-765 application for work authorization asked that all social security numbers ever used be listed. Then, after the ACLU interceded, USCIS adjusted its inquiry to read: “list those Social Security numbers that were officially issued to you by the Social Security Administration.”

“Officially issued” social security numbers are given only to native-born citizens and legal immigrants. Obviously, a deferred action candidate would be leery about confessing his identity fraud by detailing the phony numbers he’s relied on for years. By changing its language, USCIS has opened up a huge loophole for identity fraud perpetrators. The government doesn’t want to know about identity theft, at least not when aliens commit it. By changing a few words, the entire subject can be avoided. <Rest of the Article>


I don't think the Government will change a form for me to allow me to avoid telling the truth and confessing my criminal activity. Hey, it's alright to screw over an American citizen... and steal their identity... if it allows you to stay in a country you entered into illegally. 

Dr G · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:18am
Patrancus · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:19am

Goob never worked for us

It has taken me a good portion of my years to learn that Goob always works to build and edify it's own industrial complex, and as long as goob can project and wield its massive powers about the earth in the performance of its deeply rooted duty to keep and defend its dollar and the people remain distracted by the cavalcade of bread and circuses nothing will change, except that which we decide to change for ourselves. 

Colonel Angus · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:21am

The best River song ever

Has to be the Boss.

Bruce Springsteen - The River (w/ BTS footage)

And about the GDP print...I must have been on ZH too much. For some reason I want to say, "Zeno, bitchez."

SilverTree · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:22am

Golden Cross?

Can someone please explain the "golden cross"?

Be Prepared · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:23am

UK seems to be working on its Own Perpetual Unemployment...

NEW ONS SHOCKER: Just 1 in 4 UK adults aged16-74 has a full-time job

THE FINAL PROOF: How neocons and liberals have accelerated Britain’s progress over the cliff

45% of all those currently in work don’t have full time permanent jobs, according to this month’s ONS labour market data .

While that 45% number reflects a reality in the UK Labour market highlighted by The Slog in previous posts, the cumulative result of adding up all the anomolies of our economy’s inability to employ people paints a very bleak long-term picture indeed.

The ONS also tells us that 22.4% of adults aged 16-64 are economically inactive. So that doesn’t include the retired…although of course some of them will be in the 45% of part-timers – thanks to the last fifteen years of Westminster policy shrinking their pension values.

But let’s start from one simple assumption: that very few people over 75 beyond Rupert Murdoch are still working. That’s 9.2% of all adults….but generously leaving out the 6.5% aged 65-74 entirely.

The aggregate comes to a staggering 76.6% not in a full time job. Only one adult in four – at the most – enjoys full-time employment in the United Kingdom.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why the statisticians are scratching their heads, and asking why unemployment is static or falling in the deepest recession for eighty years. The simple reality is that employment is changing: from long-contract, full-time career work to zero contract, short-hours part time or freelance work. <Rest of the Article - The Slog>

wildstylechef · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:24am

ya Turd again

nice computer crash

As I see it gold climbed back above the 2008-2012 base line and to cross back above the higher line we need to see above 1770 and support has to hold at 1751

Dr G · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:25am

Nice story from ZH about a

Nice story from ZH about a new precious metals vault that Barclays has opened in London. The vault stores gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, and they say it is one of the largest in Europe:


agNau · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:27am

War and labor and grinding lower, as far as the eye can see.....

no matter what promise made. www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6R77eGx8xM This struggle within the metals market is after all, a struggle for Freedom. If the metals break out we win. We recover the opportunity for freedom........"If we can keep it." The problem is only a very few see this. @Colonel Angus You posted while I typed....agreed on best River song. Btw, we lost a truly great river singer yesterday....Andy Williams. RIP Andy.

Dr G · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:29am

@SilverTree, Golden cross is


Golden cross is when the daily moving average of a short term target (often 50 day moving average, but it could be 15 day, etc.) moves above long term moving average (often the 200 day moving average).

In logical terms, it says that the daily average for the last 50 days has been higher than the average of the past 200 days, therefore the price of the commodity must be moving up. It is a bullish indicator. The long term average is typically seen as a support level as well.

The golden cross doesn't apply only to gold, it can apply to anything once the DMA is applied.

agNau · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:29am


Usually best when both have an upward trajectory. ;)

Edward G · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:30am

Looks nice for some canoeing!

.....unless there be rapids ahead!

Talking of Oct 12 (date, not year I think), how will the position limits from then (I gather) affect anything if at all?...or have I misunderstood Bart's latest comments? Puzzled not to hear discussion on this, sorry if I DKWTF I'm talking about :)

Beastly Stack · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:34am

Turd Dude?

Where is your enthusiasm?Cheer up,you sound defeated.

I have a feeling the markets will make you feel better later today!

Give you some SPUNK!

Beautiful river,thanks for the serene photos-love them.

Have a Great Day man,go do something with your kids!They will be sure to get you smiling.

Be Prepared · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:35am

@Dr G - Another Vault to hold Hypothecated Gold

I think it's quite funny that Barclay's is opening up a vault to hold PM's that don't really exist so they can perpetuate the idea that they have more gold than they actually possess.... That vault will hold tons of paper, though. :-)

Paladex · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:38am

Options & the Jackass

Options expiration day ... Yep, those JPM puts I bought back in July, based on the Golden Jackass's inside information of imminent catastrophe befalling JP Morgan didn't work out too well for me. That's the last time I listen to ol' Willie with more than a grain of salt!

Beastly Stack · Sep 27, 2012 - 10:38am

Great Trade for you!

Turd,buy 1 april 13 live cattle right here @13270,Place a stop@13120-let it ride!

Risk 600$ forget about it,leave your stop and you will make more fiat than you lost in your corn options over the next 30 days.

My opinion,but I believe you can do that 1 future trade and make alot of money!

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Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes