Hunch

137
Tue, Sep 25, 2012 - 3:28pm

Just felt like I needed to put this out there.

The severity of the forced reversal back on Friday, followed by the beatdown of Sunday evening and the turnaround of today has made me a bit uneasy. It seems, at this moment, that The Cartel has more conviction to cap and hammer than The Good Guys have to buy. It all feels a bit coordinated, too.

If you ascribe to the theory of "managed ascent", these first days and weeks following the QE∞ announcement would seem to be a critical time for "management" of all things dollar-denominated. To have them explode in price so soon after the announcement would be a quid quo pro so obvious that even Helen Keller could see and hear it. So what do you do if you're a central planner, you encourage your goons to "intervene" and hold prices in check, maybe even cause brief declines. After a while, when prices resume their upward trajectories, the central planner can have plausible deniability needed to assert that his policies are not causing the price increases.

We first saw this last week in crude. QE∞ is announced just as MENA tensions are flaring and crude goes down? Seriously? How could that be? It wasn't a "fat finger" event that started the ball rolling but, in the end, that doesn't matter anyway. All that matters is that some trades were instigated to trip up the momentum and cause an unlikely reversal. Take out a few technical support levels and suddenly you've got crude back down near $90 and searching for a catalyst to regain its footing.

The same thing seems to be happening in the metals. After being capped all week, we were all patiently awaiting the next breakout and appeared to have it Friday morning. The overnight trade had been weak all week but Thursday into Friday it wasn't. And when the metals finally broke higher Friday morning, it looked like the real deal. Then, out of the blue, comes a sharp slam and the bulls get kneecapped. A further $15 decline on Sunday evening then further sapped the enthusiasm of buyers and now the metals just look weak. Buying enthusiasm has temporarily waned and this almost certainly means that soon the sellers will be emboldened. Add to that the ridiculously large new short positions of the banks and the obscenely negative silver lease rates and you've got a correction just waiting to happen.

Again, now, let me go back and reiterate what I've told you several times: 5% corrections in gold and 10% corrections in silver happen all the time within bull market cycles. Do not let them catch you on the wrong foot. Global QE ∞ means that all fiat currency is being debased. The only alternative for wealth preservation is physical precious metal. You know this. I know this. Many, many others around the globe are coming to know this and the insatiable demand thus created will underpin and reverse every attempt to collapse price going forward for the foreseeable future.

IF a "correction" develops here, do not be afraid, be joyous. You will have been given an opportunity to buy even more precious metal in exchange for your soon-to-be-worthless fiat. So, relax, be happy and let's see where the rest of this week takes us.

TF

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  137 Comments

RaulP
Sep 25, 2012 - 3:33pm
zman
Sep 25, 2012 - 3:39pm

Possible short term down

Possible short term down targets?

Gold- 1725-1740 oz

Silver- 32.50-33.00 oz

That's about as low as we go is my opinion!

Prize Fighter
Sep 25, 2012 - 3:41pm

Someone say Hunch?

How about some Punch to go with it?

tmosley
Sep 25, 2012 - 3:53pm

Don't have any fiat for

Don't have any fiat for silver until November.

It's taunting me :(

Welsh Dragon
Sep 25, 2012 - 3:56pm

Have Faith

Back to Basics:

The fed have announced open ended QE until something happens (which it ain't gonna) so it's QE to infinity.

As the Balance Sheet expands, the likelihood of accelerating inflation increases. When money velocity trend reverses, inflation will kick in with venom. That day is near and could be this year. Physical will suddenly be in high demand and by that time it'll be too late, even though the 'party' will have only just started.

NOW is the time to acquire physical & mining shares. The trend is up. Consolidations are healthy. They prompt us to reassess, take stock of the current state of the economy and give us further opportunity to see how messed up this world is and how important it is for us to own real, sustainable assets.

Be assured - high and possibly hyper inflation is a real threat / opportunity and it's coming to a planet you're familiar with - soon!

The Green Manalishi
Sep 25, 2012 - 4:04pm

Hunch

GIAFPO

Strongsidejedi
Sep 25, 2012 - 4:09pm

good to be back

on the PM chart watch.

The "TEOTWAKI" talk is giving me a headache.

Eric Original
Sep 25, 2012 - 4:14pm

Bullish

Stocks, metals, miners, oil, and oil companies are all north of any moving average you care to watch, plus we have global QE. Stay long. The biggest risk to your financial well being right now is holding too much cash (i.e. holding the bag).

EDIT: Ok, not oil. This will likely soon be rectified. My point still stands.

The Green Manalishi
Sep 25, 2012 - 4:14pm
ivars
Sep 25, 2012 - 4:17pm

I still do not see any

I still do not see any further fall though, as usual, things are more protracted than expected (expectations needs to be offset to exclude wishful thinking ,which is but slowly becoming quantifiable both in time and price).

Move up tomorrow +wishful thinking factor of 1 day=Thursday.

Golden cross occurring tomorrow+wishful thinking factor of 4 days=Monday

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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