Weekend Review

481
Sat, Sep 22, 2012 - 12:16pm

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

  • Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60
  • Monday, 9/17: -$2.10
  • Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60
  • Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50
  • Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan: https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. ( https://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

And in case the action in crude this week left you feeling that global peace and harmony were right around the corner, I give you this to ponder: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-22/head-irans-revolutionary-guards-war-israel-will-occur

In that same vein, I was contacted this week by a nice guy who asked me to link a few of his prepping articles. I certainly hope you are using this time to full consider these topics: https://destinysurvival.com/2012/09/03/food-storage-how-to-calculate-for-your-needs/ & https://www.emergencyfoodstorage101.com/2012/08/07/being-prepared-for-power-outages/. Of course (shameless plug coming), you can find many of these items by visiting the Turdmart, a link to which is conveniently placed at the top of each page but copied below for your convenience.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/preparation-store

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

TF

11:00 pm (23:00) EDT Sunday UPDATE:

So, what the hell happened at 20:58? Anyone have a guess? I do but, first, let's look at the charts:

At exactly the same time, the POSX began an uptrend that carried it 20 ticks higher over the next hour.

So, what we likely have here is another HFT algo (WOPR) run amok. True Cartel hit jobs rarely impact so many markets across the board. On a light volume Sunday night, a brainless computer "saw" the uptick in The Pig and began program selling.

Regardless of instigator or intention, it is going to be very difficult to break down paper price much further. Difficult but not impossible. That said, I will be very surprised to see the metals considerably lower in the morning as there is no reason to expect a buyers strike in London on Monday. As mentioned Friday, gold should have considerable support near $1750. Silver will continue to find bids, just as it did two hours ago, near $33.50.

Hang in there and try not to panic. If protracted selling does come in, consider it a blessing. Please consider any and all bouts of price weakness as opportunities to add to your stack.

TF

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  481 Comments

Short Stackreefman
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:04pm

@reefman

Corporations ARE LEGALLY people.

Well if a corporation is legally a person, why can't the Corporation vote in our elections ? If a corporation is legally a person, why can't a corporation breathe, drive a car, take a walk, run, eat, sleep, poop and pee ? Why can't a corporation get sick, get a sunburn or die ?

Obviously, a corporation is only limited to being a corporation and has no power as a person.

Apparently who ever came up with the idiotic idea that a corporation is legally a person did not think this thing through.

Corporations are legally people ! Insanity I tell ya.

Urban Roman
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:06pm

ivars

Amazing analysis. Sounds about right, even if it is a dark view -- the geopolitical barometer is definitely falling.

Therefore, as measured in $, PM prices may not stay high, and the $ may not go into hyperinflation. So-called "stagflation" is more likely, and it will be extreme.

TPTB are aware of these systemic forces and will move in whatever direction insures, consolidates, and increases their power. Hyperinflation is not the desired direction.

But the one-world-government is almost certainly not feasible, and can not happen. So there will be conflict over the spheres of influence for these regional powers.

Sep 22, 2012 - 4:08pm
¤
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:18pm

Random Govt. Archive Film

You might've seen this in school long ago

"Microscopic Life: The World of the Invisible" 1958

Encyclopedia Britannica Films

"A study of the plant and animal life found in a jar of ordinary pond water. Illustrates and explains the difference between microscopic plants and animals; between one-celled and many-celled organisms; the meaning of colonial organization; and the various processes of food-gathering, digestion and reproduction."

Public domain film from the Library of Congress Prelinger Archive, slightly cropped to remove uneven edges, with the aspect ratio corrected, and mild video noise reduction applied.

Video unavailable
I Run Bartertown
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:27pm

This is madness?

No! This is Sparta!

"Greece's ultra-nationalist party Golden Dawn (Chrysi Avgi) has inaugurated a new office in New York City, to reach out to the Greek diaspora. A branch of the political party is already operational in Melbourne, Australia.

According to Ekathimerini two polls this weekend have placed Golden Dawn as the third political party in Greece, on nine percent of the vote. Their rise in popularity, which Digital Journal reported as standing at 22 percent, means that the ultra-nationalist party has now overtaken PASOK in public opinion. Golden Dawn is now reaching out to the Greek diaspora, opening a branch of the political party in New York City. The party's New York website says: "The Golden Dawn is the only political party in Greece that unapologetically stands for the sovereignty, security, and dignity of the Greek people.The party intends to reverse decades of unlimited third world immigration which has brought crime, unemployment, disease and possibly terrorism to the once peaceful Greek cities. We stand with the Greek people who have been driven to poverty and despair by the imposition of the genocidal IMF and European Union austerity policies that are decimating the population and turning Greece into a slave state. Our goals are to promote and support the Golden Dawn’s nationalist ideals and vision for Greece among the Greek diaspora. We must resist and overcome the genocidal multi- culturalist, and anti-Hellenic agenda of the New World Order." Thus far the party has collected ,medicines, food and clothing from the diaspora in the U.S. to send to Greece."

https://www.digitaljournal.com/article/333341#ixzz27EQBXNdj

treefrog
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:30pm

corporations

corporations are not "people." legally, they are "persons." different word. different meaning. check your dictionary.

exiledbear
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:32pm

Turd, turd, turd

With a little bit of shopping, you can find MRE's that are MUCH cheaper and closer to the military specs. There are several contractors that supply MRE's.

https://readymeal.com

These people are a contractor for MREs - and each box is $70, not the $125 in your store. However, I've noticed the quality has gone down - it's technically an MRE, but they've cut out all the good stuff, like the cheese spread and the fig bars. I guess like everyone else, they've decided to cut quality instead of raising the price.

https://www.mredepot.com/servlet/the-270/MRE-Military-USGI-Meal/Detail

Not sure which contractor makes these, but they have the good stuff in them (like the cheese spread and the fig bars), and they charge $90 a box for them too. Still less than the $125 in your store.

If you want to go even cheaper, replicate a C-ration. Buy a case of canned beef stew, several boxes of cheese crackers and some packs of cookies, some packs of trail mix, and store it in a corner somewhere. Or find another canned ham special going on somewhere.

--

You know what would really be useful? Some of these MRE contractors give out volume discounts if you buy in bulk - but I'd rather not buy a pallet of these at a time - but it would be nice to get them even cheaper. If a bunch of people here pooled resources, you could get the discount and perhaps get a few more boxes for the same amount of money.

¤
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:37pm

The French role in Syria/Libya

'West "adventure" in Syria may backfire in face of the world by WW3'
question
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:38pm

@You should read this

Wish I hadn't; it did nothing to bolster my confidence in our future

DayStar
Sep 22, 2012 - 4:46pm

Harvey's Up!

What does Jim Sinclair think of QEIII? Is he right? Analysis of the COT. Two more big America ships head to the Gulf for what? Indian gold demand does...what? High net worth individuals are buying what asset class? Egon von Greyertz weighs in on tungsten. All this and more at Harvey: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/574112#comment-574112

DayStar

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
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8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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