Weekend Review

481
Sat, Sep 22, 2012 - 12:16pm

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

  • Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60
  • Monday, 9/17: -$2.10
  • Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60
  • Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50
  • Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan: https://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. ( https://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

And in case the action in crude this week left you feeling that global peace and harmony were right around the corner, I give you this to ponder: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-22/head-irans-revolutionary-guards-war-israel-will-occur

In that same vein, I was contacted this week by a nice guy who asked me to link a few of his prepping articles. I certainly hope you are using this time to full consider these topics: https://destinysurvival.com/2012/09/03/food-storage-how-to-calculate-for-your-needs/ & https://www.emergencyfoodstorage101.com/2012/08/07/being-prepared-for-power-outages/. Of course (shameless plug coming), you can find many of these items by visiting the Turdmart, a link to which is conveniently placed at the top of each page but copied below for your convenience.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/preparation-store

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

TF

11:00 pm (23:00) EDT Sunday UPDATE:

So, what the hell happened at 20:58? Anyone have a guess? I do but, first, let's look at the charts:

At exactly the same time, the POSX began an uptrend that carried it 20 ticks higher over the next hour.

So, what we likely have here is another HFT algo (WOPR) run amok. True Cartel hit jobs rarely impact so many markets across the board. On a light volume Sunday night, a brainless computer "saw" the uptick in The Pig and began program selling.

Regardless of instigator or intention, it is going to be very difficult to break down paper price much further. Difficult but not impossible. That said, I will be very surprised to see the metals considerably lower in the morning as there is no reason to expect a buyers strike in London on Monday. As mentioned Friday, gold should have considerable support near $1750. Silver will continue to find bids, just as it did two hours ago, near $33.50.

Hang in there and try not to panic. If protracted selling does come in, consider it a blessing. Please consider any and all bouts of price weakness as opportunities to add to your stack.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  481 Comments

tmosley Puck Smith
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:18pm

@Puck

Go back and re-read Johhny's post. There was nothing to refute. Just a personal attack against someone who already admitted that they were wrong on the timing, and a bunch of blatant assertions with zero backing of any sort, and worst of all, a message telling everyone to get out of physical and into paper.

Fuck him. Fuck him right in the ear.

kingboo
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:22pm

@Kcap

" And then we go on.....until we don't."

i love it! on that we can both agree

s.hawk ¤
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:24pm

Loooooooong time lurker...

Loooooooong time lurker... since Zerohedge, before Watchtower. Made me post, DPH...listened to this song this morning during sunrise on the Equinox and listened to it again while watching the sun set on the most beautiful pink clouds I have ever seen on an Equinox bar none. Keep on keeping on.

Patriot Family
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:27pm

Even Swiss Army Knives have gold ingots now...

I just got my most recent order of 100+ Victorinox Swiss Army Knives delivered this week. Just for kicks and giggles, I ordered a few knives with a 1 gram .999 gold Swiss Bank ingot inlaid into the handle. I was really surprised a company would do this... but it turns out they are in demand. Already sold one, but it's more of a collectors item since that gram was only worth about $55.00. Gold has to reach $2600 to make the knife a moot point and just buy it for the gold. But I like them anyway! When they learn to stick gold into a Boy Scout knife with glow-in-the-dark handles and a flux capacitor, then I'll order them by case (they already make the glow in the dark handles on BSA knives - wish had those when I was in the Scouts).

I'll post a picture once my photography work is complete.

If you're really into showing off your gold, apparently you can now buy gold grills on Ebay. I motion that we send a set to Bart Chilton if they can be found in silver: https://www.ebay.com/itm/14k-Gold-Plated-126-CZ-Stones-6-Rows-Iced-Out-G...

¤
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:32pm

Govt. Paper: A very interesting read

On a slow night, I came across this dated yet prescient article and the attached released Govt. report that would seem to be interesting on many levels now that TPTB find themselves seemingly painted into a corner. But are they actually?

I've written in the past about Fed forgiveness of US Treasury debt on some level (debt forgiveness for 'the gold' essentially) and how it would be a one time shot for them to attempt it. This whole time during this 'crisis' and well before that the Fed has been buying assets of all types and at this point probably own far more 'assets' then we can imagine (or even want to). I wrote on this well over a year ago with the Fed purchasing MBS of all types and essentially owning all the paper to a mega amount of real estate and other derivative laced assets at dirt rate prices (from newly created money). It's happening right now and has been for quite some time and will continue to do so.

The Fed will be landlord of many things that we have no idea because the definition of 'asset' is large and vague at this point but it is one we're going to find out about in the future when the Fed owns much more then we realize. In conjunction with the US Treasury, what doesn't the Fed actually own?

I wrote a smattering of thoughts earlier in the Speak about a world coming to a point where the bond market was a false one between CB's and eventually how todays 'normal' bonds and that market are in the process of dying.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/574125#comment-574125

Nothing that I've already witnessed that seems to be in motion over many years has changed my mind on how I think this might evolve and morph into something very different and at this point after reading this for the first time I come away with a re-enforced opinion that it won't so much be the death of bonds by mistake or blundering but more like a euthanasia that has been carefully considered and orchestrated to some degree. That's what POMO is and has been all about.

Buying back their own debt, with newly created money via monetary interventions and reducing the amount they'll need to pay back at higher rates to someone else other then themselves. With about 70% of the US debt having been bought up by the Fed they're getting closer to their end game.

Debt forgiveness of themselves by themselves.....a pseudo-debt jubilee, unannounced yet actionably efficient. In the fiscal, political and market cycle such as the one that we are now fully in the middle of would seem to offer nothing other then something extraordinary to extricate themselves from in the largest and most audacious accounting slight of hand to ever happen. It's coming.

The need or reason to own bonds like the way our parents and grandparents did will become a thing of the past.It's already happening presently, just ask Bill Gross what he thinks.

He's already talking very publicly about diversifying out of bonds for a reason. Imagine that?

I have, and now I'm reading about it in a Govt. paper over 10 years ago.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

What If We Paid Off The Debt? The Secret Government Report

by David Kestenbaum

Planet Money has obtained a secret government report outlining what once looked like a potential crisis: The possibility that the U.S. government might pay off its entire debt.

It sounds ridiculous today. But not so long ago, the prospect of a debt-free U.S. was seen as a real possibility with the potential to upset the global financial system.

We recently obtained the report through a Freedom of Information Act Request. You can read the whole thing here. (It's a PDF.)

The report is called "Life After Debt". It was written in the year 2000, when the U.S. was running a budget surplus, taking in more than it was spending every year. Economists were projecting that the entire national debt could be paid off by 2012.

{C}

Source: CBO and OMB (Debt held by the public)

Credit: Alyson Hurt and Jess Jiang / NPR

This was seen in many ways as good thing. But it also posed risks. If the U.S. paid off its debt there would be no more U.S. Treasury bonds in the world.

"It was a huge issue ... for not just the U.S. economy, but the global economy," says Diane Lim Rogers, an economist in the Clinton administration.

The U.S. borrows money by selling bonds. So the end of debt would mean the end of Treasury bonds.

But the U.S. has been issuing bonds for so long, and the bonds are seen as so safe, that much of the world has come to depend on them. The U.S. Treasury bond is a pillar of the global economy.

Banks buy hundreds of billions of dollars' worth, because they're a safe place to park money.

Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate on U.S. treasury bonds.

The Federal Reserve — our central bank — buys and sells Treasury bonds all the time, in an effort to keep the economy on track.

If Treasury bonds disappeared, would the world unravel? Would it adjust somehow?

"I probably thought about this piece easily 16 hours a day, and it took me a long time to even start writing it," says Jason Seligman, the economist who wrote most of the report.

It was a strange, science-fictiony question.

"What would it look like to be in a United States without debt?" Seligman says. "What would life look like in those United States?..........(cont.)

https://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/10/21/141510617/what-if-we-paid-off...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SECOND INTERAGENCY DRAFT 11/3/00 PRELIMINARY

& CLOSE HOLD

CHAPTER 2 Page 1 OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Life After Debt

In the year 2000, the U.S. Treasury began actively buying back the public debt; we

should all appreciate the tremendous this represents for the Nation as a whole. As

the previous section described there are good reasons for our current fiscal discipline and the

public savings that accompany it to continue. We must realize however, that a sharp reduction in"

Federal debt and the possible accumulation of a Federal asset raises at least three important

issues. First, investors looking for an asset free of credit risk can no longer count on an abundant

supply of U.S. Treasury securities, and Treasury securities may no longer provide a reliable

benchmark for other interest rates. Second, the Federal Reserve may have to change the

mechanisms by which it conducts monetary policy. Third, continued surpluses after the public

debt has been paid off will require the Federal. government to acquire assets; either directly or

though the Social Security Trust Fund. This raises issues about what kinds of assets might be

acquired, and the best way to manage this task.

Benchmark Issues

The financial services industry has grown tremendously in this country over the past

eight years, and done a very good job of handling growth and the increased risks that accompany

it. The industry accomplishes this task most fundamentally by separating risks by type, making

them easier to evaluate and price. Most investors, creditors and businesses face exchange rate"

risk, real interest rate risk, and default risks daily. US Treasuries are considered free of default

risk by investors the world over. Because of this reputation, one of the services provided by the

Treasury in financing US Government debt has been that of providing a benchmark asset to the

financial community_ The remarkable liquidity of Treasuries is also a result of the full faith and

credit of the United States Government. Holding a liquid asset is valuable because it affords an

assurance of convertibility, and thus fast and easy access to capital. Private investors, the

Federal Reserve and many foreign central banks have used Treasuries to fulfill their need for a

riskless, performing asset with liquidity second only to currency. Together the liquidity and

risklessness of Treasuries enable their use as a benchmark to compare and price other, riskier

investments. If Treasuries should disappear, markets will look for a substitute to fill these roles.

In fact, since the Treasury's buy back program began, the Swaps market has taken on

some of the benchmark role of Treasuries in providing a benchmark interest rate for relative

comparisons. A Swap allows a holder of a stream of variable interest rates payments to convert

this into a stream of fixed payments for fee. The Swaps market is remarkably liquid, since swaps

are agreements between parties and supplies are not limited by the issuance of anyone entity.

Many financial intermediaries participate in the market at present, allowing a fully articulated

yield curve and a vibrant market. In this environment Swaps, which by design deal explicitly

with uncertainty, are capable of acting as a partial substitute for the Treasury benchmark.

Because Swaps are not US Treasury issues, they will not fully substitute for the Treasury

Instrument, they are however highly tradable across parties as the houses that issue them

maintain exemplary credit ratings in order to maintain liquidity and thus market share.

Of course it is possible to keep both the benchmark Treasury and allow fiscal surpluses to

continue to pay down the national debt. This would require that we diversify the Social Security

Trust Fund (investment options and concerns are described below). Under such a scenario, the

trust fund would invest in something other than Treasuries, while the federal government could

maintain it's current fiscal policy and the public market for Treasury instruments. Because the

Trust funds would no longer purchase the same quantity of Treasury instruments, the federal

government would face, declining OASI receipt pass through and a decrease in this finance. The

federal government's effective expenditure to receipts ratio would rise.

The Treasury could solve the Fed's short-term problem without involving the Social

Security Trust Fund by creating a further Federal investment fund to save for future financial

demands- as described later in this section.

In several important ways, Treasury securities still.

represent an ideal instrument for monetary policy. First, current Treasury markets are generally

very liquid, so that the Fed can easily purchase and sell securities at market prices. Second, price.

information is widely available, making these markets highly transparent. Third, the full faith

and credit of the U.S. government back Treasury securities; hence, the Fed takes on no credit risk

in owning them. By acting soon the federal government can preserve a public debt market

through purchases of assets in excess of what is required to soak up present surpluses. In lieu of

an increased need to finance the federal budget with Treasury issues, the Federal Reserve will be

faced with the dilemma of how to implement Monetary ·Policy.

Conducting Monetary Policy

The debt held by the public comprises holdings by the Federal Reserve, foreign

governments, and private investors; this is the debt scheduled for elimination by 2012. At

current the Fed buys and sells Treasuries to conduct open market operations, through which the

Fed to affect bank reserves, short term interest rates, and the money supply. The Fed's conduct

of open market operations has been a key to our economic success with strong growth and low

inflation so it is important that they have a strategy as t}:le amount of public debt declines. Even

before 2012, the Fed will come up against a self-imposed constraint on purchases. On July 5th,

2000, in order to help preserve the market for Treasuries, the Federal Reserve placed caps on the

amount of individual Treasury issues it would purchase. These caps further limit the Fed's

ability to use Treasuries to finance open market operations. If the Fed continues to expand the

money supply at the current annual rate of 6 percent its caps may be hit as early as 2003 I-long

before the market for publicly traded Treasuries vanishes.

In principle, the Fed can conduct open market operations on any number of assets

including corporate bonds, agency debt, sovereign debt, and even equities.

2 While these assets are feasible instruments for open market operations, none is as liquid as Treasury instruments.

It is true that as long as the Fed need not increase or decrease the money supply beyond it's supply

of Treasuries with great rapidity, the instrument holdings of the Fed need not consist exclusively

of Treasury assets. Over time however, as the Economy grows and the Fed's stock of Treasuries

mature, the percentage of Treasuries in the Fed's portfolio will decline, requiring a change in Fed

procedure for increasing or damping liquidity with rapidity....

https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2011/10/20/LifeAfterDebt.pdf

SaratogaPrepper Puck Smith
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:42pm

Totally agree!

If foul language is needed to prove your point........you've lost.

foggyroad
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:47pm

The how

Jesses' cafe most recent... discusses manipulation via HFT and how it is utilized to move price.

and shows charts exposing circuit breaking trades.

Foot prints of manipulation, or 'not for profit selling' as some call it, or just plain moving the price illegally as I would call it.

read more..credit to

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca/

The Dr. Evil Strategy and Some Targets


"The exact methodology being deployed that enables the dominant commercial traders to pull this scam off repetitively, aside from outright collusion, is High Frequency Trading (HFT). HFT is the collusive bundling of advanced computer hardware and software that is so advanced and powerful that it has achieved the power to move prices sharply with little actual trading required in setting prices. The way HFT works is that the collusive trading programs suddenly flash great numbers of contracts for sale. But before much actual selling occurs, all the other traders in the market see the great volumes of contracts apparently offered for sale and these other traders withdraw buy orders and start entering their own sell orders to get ahead of the great wave of HFT sell orders offered. Then a not so funny thing happens. Most of the time, very few of the HFT orders originally offered for sale get filled or executed. Instead, they are quickly cancelled. There's even an operative term for this practice that's perfect – spoofing.

Most of the HFT orders are never filled, nor are they ever intended to be filled. These spoof orders are intended to scare others into selling so that the dominant commercial traders can buy gold and silver contracts. And make no mistake, this phony HFT activity has been successful, to the great shame of the regulators at the CFTC, who know that this manipulative trading is against commodity law. The proof that it is manipulative trading lies in the data published by the CFTC. That data shows the big dominant commercial traders are always the big net buyers on the big down days. It is not possible for that to be coincidence; it as close to cause and effect as is possible."

Ted Butler
credit to Ted Butler ..link
here
Ted
Butler, Butler Research
From Nanex Research:
Trading was so furious in Gold, that the CME circuit breakers triggered and halted the futures contract for 5 seconds. First on the downside, then on the upside. This is the same circuit breaker that triggered only once in the eMini during market hours: that time was at the bottom of the flash crash on May 6, 2010.

The first halt in the December 2012 Gold Futures contract (GC.Z12) was at 12:14:44: you can see the gap in volume in the lower panel of Chart 1. One second before the halt, 2,000 contracts traded the price down $10, from $1,730 to $1,720. The CME halt logic triggers a 5 second market pause whenever orders appear that would remove all available liquidity and move the price by a certain amount.

For this event, this basically means that if this order represented a true intent to sell, then we should expect additional selling (from the balance of the order that triggered the halt) when trading resumes.

However, in this case, the additional selling did not materialize, which leads us to believe the large sell order was meant to disturb any market based on the price of gold. And disturb the markets, it did.

1. December Gold Futures (GC.Z12) ~ 1 second interval trades with depth of book color coded by how much size is at each level.

Note the gap showing the halt after the drop. The depth of book shows orders continue to be added/removed from the book during the halt.
Thanks to..
Audacious
Oligarchy: The Double Flash Crash In Gold - Sept 13, 2012
reefman
Sep 22, 2012 - 11:58pm

BrotherJohnF is SHORT-TERM bearish on silver:

BrotherJohnF is SHORT-TERM bearish on silver:

Silver Update 9/21/12 Debtor's Prison
¤
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:12am

IMF articles

Global Debt Crisis Is Far from Over, Conference Hears

September 18, 2012

The sources of the recent global financial turmoil, how best to detect a financial crisis before it is too late to take remedial action, and the consequences of an attendant surge in public debt are among key issues economists and policymakers ponder four years after the onset of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Asia Poised To Emerge as Lynchpin of Global Economy

September 21, 2012

Asia is in a stronger position to tackle headwinds from the unsettled global economy, but the region must continue with structural reforms, and embrace greater integration if it is to meet its potential, an audience hear at a key conference held earlier this month in Tokyo.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Global House Prices Still Showing Down Trend

September 17, 2012

U.S. house prices have started to pick up but globally prices are still on a down trend, according to IMF research. Price trends vary widely between countries, with Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain seeing the biggest falls in the past year and Brazil and Germany, substantial increases.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Country's Wealth Depends on Citizens' Share of National Pie

June 2012

Why are some countries rich and others poor? James Robinson, coauthor of the newly published “Why Nations Fail”, argues that the wealth of a country is most closely tied to how far the average person is able to share in its overall economic growth.

https://www.imf.org/external/index.htm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Puts" in the Shadow

Author/Editor: Singh, Manmohan
Authorized for Distribution: September 1, 2012
Electronic Access: Free Full Text

Summary: In the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, payouts (i.e., taxpayer bailouts) in various forms were provided by governments to a variety of financial institutions and markets that were outside the regulatory perimeter - the 쳌"shadow" banking system. Although recent regulatory proposals attempt to reduce these 쳌"puts", we provide examples from non-banking activities within a bank, money market funds, Triparty repo, OTC derivatives market, collateral with central banks, and issuance of floating rate notes etc., that these risks remain. We suggest that a regulatory environment where puts are not ambiguous will likely lower the cost of bail-outs after a crisis.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=26264.0

¤
Sep 23, 2012 - 12:13am

IMF's Lagarde: Time to Get Beyond the Crisis

LAGARDE INTERVIEW

Time to Get Beyond the Crisis, Says IMF's Lagarde

IMF Survey

September 21, 2012

  • Cooperative action and implementation of agreed decisions needed to move beyond crisis in the eurozone
  • Anchoring of expectations will be key in Europe, United States, and Japan
  • Annual Meetings in Tokyo to focus on further action needed to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth

In order to move beyond the crisis in the eurozone and restore confidence in the global recovery, policymakers should implement agreed decisions that will help anchor medium-term expectations about economic policy, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a taped video interview.

“It’s a question of really trying to get beyond the crisis in the eurozone, asserting a medium-term plan for countries like the United States and Japan, and making sure that some of the issues that actually created the crisis five years ago are really dealt with, not just half dealt with. And I’m particularly thinking about the financial sector,” she said, speaking ahead of a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington D.C. on September 24 that will preview the agenda for the upcoming Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

In early October, about 10,000 policymakers, business leaders, academics, civil society representatives, and journalists will gather in Tokyo to discuss the outlook for the world economy, and how to address issues ranging from the eurozone crisis, to high unemployment, rising food prices, and better regulation of the financial sector.

Continued uncertainty

The Meetings are being held at a time of continued uncertainty for the world economy, and after further action in September by the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan to restore confidence and stimulate growth and job creation.

In the interview, Lagarde discusses the challenges facing not just Europe but also the United States, emerging markets, and low-income countries. She also provides an update on the IMF’s efforts to implement an important governance reform that will give more say to fast-growing emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere.

The meetings will kick off with the IMF’s regular update of its World Economic Outlook on October 9, followed by more than 300 other events, including press briefings, seminars, and bilateral country meetings. The IMF’s policy steering committee will meet on October 13, and is expected to discuss further action needed to achieve sustainable and more inclusive economic growth.

IMF Survey: It’s been five years since the crisis first erupted in the U.S. mortgage market and the world economy still has not recovered its stride. In fact, many have warned of a second Lehman moment unless problems in the eurozone and elsewhere are addressed decisively. What will it take to really turn things around?

Lagarde: It’s obvious it will take a lot of cooperative action between all players―and not just cooperative talk, but cooperative action by way of implementing some of the decisions that have been made and some of the decisions that need to be made.

But if you were to ask me, it’s a question of really trying to get beyond the crisis in the eurozone, asserting a medium-term plan for countries like the United States and Japan, and making sure that some of the issues that actually created the crisis five years ago are really dealt with, not just half dealt with. And I’m particularly thinking about the financial sector... ()

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/NEW092112A.htm

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
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9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
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9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, Sep 19, 2019 - 11:07pm
by Boggs, Sep 19, 2019 - 10:35pm
by Boggs, Sep 19, 2019 - 10:21pm
by NW VIEW, Sep 19, 2019 - 9:29pm
by sierra skier, Sep 19, 2019 - 8:05pm
by Boggs, Sep 19, 2019 - 5:26pm
randomness