Back At It

Thu, Sep 20, 2012 - 10:46am

After a day out of "the office", I'm back at my post and just in time to see another blatant attempt to cap and drive price lower.

You know, The Bullion Bank Cartel never ceases to amaze me. Trapped short against QE~, they resort to they only trick they have in their bag...naked shorting. That the foolhardiness of this "strategy" seems entirely lost upon them is what baffles me. They have to see:

  • Open-ended quantitative easing is now the official policy of nearly every, major central bank in the world.
  • Demand for physical metal in size continues unabated, regardless of fluctuation in paper price.
  • Rehypothecated and unallocated gold has created untenable leveraged positions.
  • Gold they borrowed and sold in the market at much lower prices is in need of repayment.
  • Eventual imposition of a gold-backed international trade settlement system will reset price multiples higher.
  • Any logical person would look at the set of circumstances set out above and conclude that a "short the metals" strategy is not going to be a long-term winner. However, The Cartels seemingly continue with their business, as usual, bravely whistling past the graveyard, oblivious to their impending demise.

    As The Turd's Old Man would ask: "Do you know what 'motel' spelled backward is? Let om."

    By continuing to manipulate price lower, they are only increasing the magnitude of the eventual seismic event. Simple economics dictates that by suppressing and capping price over a period of time, the price reset that inevitably occurs when price is finally freed to find its own equilibrium is often dramatic. Look up the history of rent control in NYC or Nixon and Ford's wage-and-price controls of the 1970s.

    So, whatever. I could go on and on but what would be the point? You and I know what is truly going on and we know for certain that prices for precious metal are headed much, much higher from here. Why even bother to pay attention to $10 price drops that occur just as London is setting its afternoon fix? I don't know. Something to do I guess.

    Look at these charts, though. On this silver chart, particularly, you can see the aggressive capping technique of The Cartels. Why cap at these levels you ask? We must imagine that there are significant buy-stops positioned just above $1780 gold and $35 silver, where a decisive move through $35 and then $35.50 will send silver quickly soaring toward $37-37.50. Again, this is a battle that they cannot win. Tomorrow, Monday, next week...whenever. Price will break those levels and reset higher again. It's simply a matter of time.

    Also underpinning these markets from a technical perspective is this bullish development:

    And we must talk about crude today. Recall that I was expecting a move toward $101 before the next pullback toward $98. Well, we got to $100.50 or so but, suddenly, we've gotten this remarkable, 10% pullback. This is all very, very strange.

    It began back on Monday with this: which was followed up with this Then, yesterday, crude fell another $4 which got the attention of everyone, including our friends at ZH:

    So QE~ is announced in the face of the almost-eventual Israel v Iran war and crude falls $10??? This stinks to high heaven and is almost certainly a blatant U.S. government attempt to lower gasoline prices 50 days before the election. There can be no other serious explanation. Again, though, just as The Metals Cartel is offering you an amazing opportunity to accumulate more metal at "affordable" prices, this drop in crude is also presenting itself to you as a gift.

    Now, of course, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe peace, love and harmony will break out and usher in a new era of Middle Eastern Utopia. If you think this or if you're of the belief that dollar-denominated assets are going to plummet in price while the Fed conducts QE~, then perhaps you won't be buying crude, crude calls or the UCO here. If, instead, you don't believe that peaceful bliss is right around the corner...(

    That's all for now as I have a lot of catching up to do. It's funny how one day away can lead to literally piles of stuff you need to get caught up on. As usual, more later though if conditions warrant.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Sep 21, 2012 - 10:53am


    Down 60c in 15 min to $34.55

    clueless one
    Sep 21, 2012 - 10:54am

    boy, didn't that chart look

    boy, didn't that chart look really good?

    til it didn't...lmao

    Beastly Stack
    Sep 21, 2012 - 10:56am

    @dr. Jerome

    The stops to be worried about were the ones placed on the other side of 35!

    Chi-Town Deadhead thurd aye
    Sep 21, 2012 - 10:56am

    @thurd eye

    I actually bought at gold spot from Kitco. They have a screen you can barely see but I checked my Kitco widget too. So it looks like a real bargain. I'm not big into the proof but he had a 1991 regular and the 1997 proof. Same price at $45.00 over AGE spot. I may have to run back over and see if they still have the 1991. But someone on the board probably already has picked it up.

    Sep 21, 2012 - 10:57am

    Smackdown bitches

    Get the fuck outta here

    Sep 21, 2012 - 10:57am


    Now that was some Funny Stufft Right There. Could they be more obvious about there intentions to keep Silver down

    Sep 21, 2012 - 10:58am


    clueless one
    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:00am

    you have to laugh...

    it's so insane anymore.

    $31 here we come...

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:02am

    late for class

    If you are late for class, this is a gift. surprises even me.

    SLV traded 4 m sh in 9 minutes. Down 70 cents....riiiiight.

    Like MS offering to buy your FB at 38, this is BM offering to sell you Si at a discount.

    It is not FUBM, its THANK YOU BM.

    You are near the target when you start taking flak. SLW positive.

    Beastly Stack
    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:03am


    Anyone thinking $31 here we come should be called CLUELESS!

    Stop with the nonsense!

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:04am

    Bam! Nice while it lasted...

    I'd prefer a massive FUBM ASAP but I think we'll grind sideways and upwards soon enough.

    Stone Temple Pilots - Down (Official Video)

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:04am

    Roll Back

    Well that was convincing. Certainly the $35 point is a line-in-the-sand.

    And just in case we don't all understand that - they're going to roll the slow price ramp-up back 24 hours (all in 15 minutes).

    EDIT to Add: Oh well, the daily chart still tells the real story. When these smash downs get me ticked off - I reset my Netdania Chart to view the "Daily" and fell better.

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:06am

    silver smackdown for cheap cover ahead of 11:30 am Euro Close

    The silver smackdown is for cheap cover ahead of 11:30 am Euro close where most likely there will be a swift ride up to our highs of this morning above 35 and then some. I look at the smackdown as a nice predictor of good action coming our way today and within the hour. Also good to see that the smackdown was only able to go to the 34.33 level and then double bottomed. Shows strength.


    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:06am

    Firstly $31 ain't coming,

    Firstly $31 ain't coming, Secondly I absolutely warned you against buy stops this morning above the highs. Many were talking about buy stops above $35.15, I sincerely hope you listened to me and didn't place a buy stop above the highs. I expect we head back towards $34.80-85 now and close somewhere around there, nothing to see here move along.....


    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:07am

    Owning the phyzzzz

    .....takes the pain out of the ups and downs and this wild bucking bronco.

    Price suppression is simply a dead giveaway that accumulation is taking place. That is what makes owning the phyzzz rewarding during smackdowns.

    The Doors - Riders on the Storm
    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:08am

    loaded up on slv calls expiring today-the 33's

    bought 150 of them--now to see if we get a nice bounce esp after the london close.

    cost 7500-if we get back to 35 in silver-.....

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:12am

    @Mr Guboci

    It all played out as expected, and described upthread.

    I defer again to what Reefman said, the usual trading rules don't work reliably enough in this arena to be of use.


    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:14am

    The more things change...


    Oh, well, time to pass some packets.

    clueless one Beastly Stack
    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:14am

    hey Beastly...

    it's just my opinion. what do you care? everyone that is into the metals is watching, and has their own opinions, right?

    so I can't say what I think may happen?

    as Hawk mentioned...if you didn't listen and got burned, oh well.

    just like I mentioned that I see $31...

    so what?

    don't be a dick. too many of them in the world as it is.

    have a good day.

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:14am


    Well, whatever it was, it put us in the oversold status for the day....They traded this all the way down to the lower channels....

    I assume someone needs to cover their short position, or taking the profits away from the Option players with Options expiring today...This shouldn't last that long...We should bounce...There is no underlying factor for this to drop down this fast...

    I guess we are experiencing the ALGO world...Good Luck...Time to turn off the computer, and let them play their game...This is going to move to the upside even more violent in the coming week. Good Luck...

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:16am


    During that freakshow just now, I saw Eurogold rise to 1374.

    I do believe that is the all time record.

    It'll disappear from all the charts after today.

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:17am

    Smashed manipulation here...MOVE ALONG!

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:18am

    turn my back for an hour...

    Just looked up at the charts.

    Right back where we were yesterday. My physical is still heavy. My options are a bit lighter. but I am sure getting tired of living in a totally corrupt system. Seems like it is rampant everywhere now. I suppose it was always there (especially PMs) but the end game is bring out the worst in the criminals across the board.

    We have NOT broken our familiar bottom trendline in AG.

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:18am

    triple bottom on 1 min at 34.33

    And that should do it for now. Up from here. No more cheap silver to be had at this point today.


    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:19am

    Rules of Engagement

    How much naked short ammo did JPM et al have to use to back Silver down from that launch this morning? I really wonder. It sure seems that they don't much care what the cost is.

    Perhaps they perceive the cost of a breakout being much higher for them, so the beat-down using more naked shorts is their best option. Either that, or the Fed is simply back-stopping any of their ultimate costs with funny money. Maybe they are long in London? What the heck do I know - pretty much nothing.

    I guess the problem I have with wrapping my mind around all this is that somewhere deep in my brainstem I actually still think that the market is real. It isn't. It's a ponzi scheme, pure and simple, and the rules of engagement are different. The only thing that really matters to the Cartel is that the game continue. I think we are at the point where sustaining the charade is all that matters - because once the music stops everybody loses. (Those with real physical may lose a bit less.)

    Beastly Stack
    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:22am


    Only response to you is that-NO I did not get burned.

    Bought silver futures yesterday@3429 and exited @3474

    Bought Gold yesterday @1771 and got out this morning @1788+

    Now just rebought Gold @1775

    Yes,we are entitled to our opinions,but do not try to egg other people out with negativity!

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:26am


    ....beatdown happening. And a new thread also

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:27am

    What are the chances for an afternoon smackdown?

    I have money to spend today, and trying to pick a good time. It might be now... Or take my chances on a nice smackdown in thin trading this afternoon?

    MrGuboci Hawk
    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:28am


    Hawk , did not make buystops at 35.15 as I listened to you guys thats its not a very bright idea . instead bought more at 34.65 and sold the newly acquired silver at 35.00 after no buystops activation at .15 . You and Byz were right and you made me some money :)

    Sep 21, 2012 - 11:30am

    Re Rules of engagement

    Add to that, why would they smack it down whilst London's still open and incur a greater cost of engagement?

    04/29/12 = Same scenario as we lost 80c in the afternoon followed by the big takedown on the Bin Laden sunday night that followed!

    What's the chance of peace coming this weekend, or is it mope to attract/keep in the shorts before next weeks spike??? Scary for paper, wtf for physical.


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