As The World Burns

Mon, Sep 17, 2012 - 10:45am

Another week is off and running. What will it hold? Will we all still be here come Friday?

Seriously, I'm starting to wonder. Maybe I'm beginning to get immunized somewhat to all of this craziness but don't things seem a bit out of hand? Maybe the world has always been this crazy and I've just never really noticed before? Nah, I'm going with the former. This is madness.

Think back to...let's say...1999 or so. Everything was peachy. Almost all of the countries in world were getting along just fine. Oh sure, there was the occasional battle in the Kashmir and you had No-Fly-Zones in Iraq, but I don't recall checking the news with dread every time I opened a browser. Now you never know what might flare up next and the entire world seems on the edge of conflagration. Actually, in my gut, the world doesn't just seem on the edge, I know that it is on the edge and this is sure keeping me from ever getting a good night's sleep.

The latest craziness is this whole China v. Japan issue. While I have little doubt that it was purposefully begun as a a way to "distract" the Chinese and "dissuade" them from getting too forceful in the Middle East, it seems to have really touched some raw nerves in China. Have you seen much of this in the mainstream media? Me, neither. Perhaps because it is potentially another Obama Regime blunder of such epic proportions that the MSM would prefer to ignore it in the hopes that it will all simmer down in due time. We'll see but you definitely need to take the time to scroll all of the way through this ZH article. Look at all of the pictures and read all of the captions. And here's a companion piece that was posted just a few minutes ago: And, for the coup de grace, try this one on for size:

For now, of course, this is just a sideshow. The real action is in the MENA where everything points to imminent conflict. You've got this: and this With this and this And, of course, there's all of this: I think I'll head out today and buy some more .40 ammo, just in case. It's kind of like physical metal...If you have to ask yourself if you have enough, you probably don't.

The metals are getting whacked around a bit this morning which is perfectly fine. Both gold and silver would appear to be temporarily "overbought" again and need some time to work of some of the recent excesses. As discussed last week, all significant dips must be bought as QE~ means price is moving inexorably higher.

And, after reading through the comments of my Saturday post, I feel as if I should clarify my remarks a little. First and foremost, I was/is/am very excited that The Cartels got caught wrong-footed last week. Everything shows that their intention was to smash price, just like they did on Leap Day. They were hoping for either some "disappointment" out of the German Constitutional Court on Wednesday or The Fed on Thursday. They got neither and, consequently, took it in the shorts (no pun intended). HAHAHA you arrogant jerks!

This is/was not intended though to give you the impression that it is a straight up rocket ride from here for the metals. It, most assuredly, won't be. There will be raids and corrections just like there always have been. This difference now is that every correction will be bought and bottoms will be quickly found. Can we still see brief 5-10% drops in silver and 3-5% drops in gold? Of course! The Cartels are trapped massively short and they will manipulate as much as they can in order to cover as much as possible. But in the end, they are screwed. The game has changed regardless of whether they want to see or admit it.

Prices will continue to advance in stages and this is why I encourage you to buy all dips. Not the intraday $10 kind of dip. I'm talking about the real, raid-type dips where gold falls $30 or $50. Physical demand is so high and supply is so tight (particularly in silver) that paper price dips can only be driven so far. Massive physical orders emerge and, unless The Cartels want to further exacerbate their supply issues, price must be allowed to rebound. You end up with a "stair" type pattern as seen on the charts above or a steady sloping pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Either way, gold and silver will undoubtedly continue higher and will likely do so at an increasing pace as The Cartels get increasingly desperate against their untenable position of underwater shorts and need-to-be-repaid leases.

You could even look at today's action as a microcosm of this. The short algos and The Cartels have tried to drop price enough to shake out some longs and relieve some pressure. They've tried this even in the face of a falling POSX. So far, they've failed miserably and now they are on the cusp of getting run the other way. If forced to cover the shorts they put on just today, price will quickly move toward 1780 and 34.

I leave you today with another gem of an article from Jim Quinn. Jim has been doing excellent work chronicling the real demise and destruction of middle-income America. This new article is very well done but really quite sad to read.

I'll be keeping an eye on things and will post again if conditions warrant. In the meantime, I'm off to Cabela's.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 17, 2012 - 5:45pm

You can still take the blue pill

Are you tired of end of the world talk on radical websites like this one? rumors of wars, FEMA camps, corruption in high and low places, fear of neighbors kicking in your door to steal food, big bank manipulation, conspiracies, and inflation, the challenge of stacking!

Pfizer has the solution. Now you can forget everything you ever learned about economics from Turd and that nefarious ZH news website, Bix Weir, Santa, and all these other conspiracy theorist nuts.

Yes, blue pills for all. (what a coincidence) Is that really what Morpheus offered Neo?

I realize that they look a lot like Viagra, but who is paying attention. Just take these on a regular basis and soon all your economic woes will be forgotten in favor of other pursuits and distractions.

Underwritten by JP Morgan Chase.

Sep 17, 2012 - 5:48pm

Creepy memory

For some reason I just flashed on the feeling I had many years ago when my best buddy and I were on the flight line sitting on our mobility bags while the C-130s had their engines idling with the loading doors open. It was the height of Yom Kippur War. The Soviets had been supplying Syria and Egypt. The Israelis had already sunk a Soviet transport ship. Soviet destroyers were in the Mediterranean off the coast of Syria and the Soviet Air Force was on alert. The DoD had just gone to DEFCON 3.

It was a beautiful autumn day in Arkansas. There was very little talking among the people sitting with us. It felt very unreal. I kept telling myself I was just an avionics specialist, I wasn't going to be going anywhere near the shooting if it started. Deep inside, though, I knew if it came to that, the shooting would involve nukes.

Fortunately, the Soviets finally stood down.

It's is a sad commentary on our day that I can look back at Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev and realize, compared to today, those men were great statesmen. Sad, sad, sad.

ancientmoney Basil
Sep 17, 2012 - 5:54pm


Turk is surely not a TA guy, but he has been "right" about overall direction in 9 of last 10 years, when gold had the highest ROR of any category. In the other year, absent total manipulation to achieve a sought result, he'd likely have been 10 of 10.

At least he cheerleads for the winners (PMs) though he is not a market timer.

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:03pm

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:06pm


I approved your account only because I suspect you've forgotten your other five usernames and passwords.

bruzee TF
Sep 17, 2012 - 6:10pm

Thanks! :-)

Thanks! :-)

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:10pm


I suspect you made a wise decision. Pile in! I don't see a bigger dip than this afternoon's on the near horizon. Actually, the beatdown today surprised me. But I notices that there was not much follow through. can;t wait till 9 pm to see what they do overseas.

reefman Doctor J
Sep 17, 2012 - 6:11pm

@Jerome, Thanks man. It was


Thanks man. It was a hair-brained nutty day, in-and-out-and-in again, I ended up only loosing a tiny amount on that dip because I bought puts and sold them after holding for about 5 minutes during the rip-dip!

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:15pm

Re:Two views of the same story

Boy those Chinese learn fast. Over the last 20 years they were able to reverse engineer most of our technology. But overnight that managed to learn all the tricks from the Western bankers. Unallocated, fractionally reserved, re-re-re-hypotecated steel! :)

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:15pm

For better or for worse:

For better or for worse:

I piled into the options at 15:40 this afternoon..... It's a gamble at this point, loose big or gain big. We'll see tomorrow.

Several Sept options (expiring at the end of this week), and one huge October option.

I need to make as much fiat as possible in the shortest time possible. I need more paper money as fast as I can get it.

My goal is to turn my initial $14,000 of electronic money into $250,000 by December. IF I can do that, then I am good to go for the next 100 years.

(I already have thousands of ounces of silver and seven years of food, so this is my GAMBLIN' MONEY)

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:18pm

Doc- re: blue pill

It would be just my luck to take one of those blue pills in hopes of forgetting all my troubles, and instead be stuck with an erection lasting more than four hours and requiring the most embarrassing hospital visit imaginable.

I'll take the red pill, please!

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:19pm


And I thought I was doing well with one. Though I would have to rent extra space for 7 years worth. Nuclear holocaust anyone?

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:20pm

Well, I'm very encouraged...

... by the healthy double-bounce after the raid.

Things are looking good to me.

Above 34. Above 1760.

Just A Regular Guy
Sep 17, 2012 - 6:23pm


The Cartel is dead, long live the Cartel! Bix Weir thinks the Fed is deliberately trying to kill the dollar to stamp out the corrupt economic system that’s sucking out the world’s life force. Bill Murphy’s not so sure, but believes that the Fed has run out of options and that this might be the only way they can prevent an all out collapse. Both admit to not knowing when the bottom will drop out of the financial markets, but both are equally sure that it’s going to happen and that we’re getting closer and closer to that eventuality. Interestingly, while they both have their own take on exactly what’s happening, they agree that it’s not going to be pleasant for the average American and that living standards are bound to decline markedly.

This is EXACTLY what I think. My main points around my theory relate to Au/Ag miners I have on my watchlists for stocks.

In these times of somewhat economic hardship, WHY are people/governments/central banks etc. buying gold? I mean you would think that they would be using capital to build stuff to employ people? Or giving money back via tax-breaks to stimulate the private sector (the wisest move to reallocate capital via the individual actor). It makes no sense at all in my mind that gold and silver miners are making money at this period in history. You would think that other investments would be a better bet? So I seriously believe that a return to the gold-standard is imminent, the nations around the world via the printing press are just buying time. The system will collapse when there is enough civil unrest, or when they say it will collapse. The money from QE etc. isn't going to the economy. It is going to the banks to short gold/silver while the governments use more QE (that isn't announced/known about) to buy gold/silver via proxies so as there is little evidence they are doing so. Everyone here surely knows that history is littered with examples of fiat money always ending in ruin, and likewise everyone knows that debt is crippling the world. Debt that will not, and can never be repaid. The only way out is to default, kill the current paper-money, and return to a gold standard. If the governments came out and said "We're returning to the gold standard" there would be PANIC! Again if all the politicians know this is coming, would they be honest in reporting their real gold purchases/reserves? Would you not get suspicious if suddenly you're government purchased a big-chunk of gold (outside their normal "asset" purchases) that is like say 5 or more standard deviations above their normal asset purchase/sale activity? So what do the governments do, they lie about it, or completely suppress the information. The governments are just shorting the price to get it as cheaply as possible before the collapse occurs. They can short forever because they have unlimited fiat-paper/digital dollars to do it with.

Relating to QE3, like Peter Schiff said why would Bernanke come out and say he's going to print more? He is going to implode the US-Bond market. I mean who in their right mind would want to buy a US-Bond when you're going to get a real negative return due to dilution of the currency? This is why I watch the bond market. Similarly if gold is NOT SHORTED and goes up too fast people will panic and pile into gold (as it signals to the market something is seriously wrong with the financial system). So, as far as I am concerned, it is only a matter of time, and like people here with their various theories as to how it happens or why, I think it is coming a lot sooner rather than later. QE3 only adds to my suspicion.

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:28pm

IMHO Oil sell off = algo

IMHO Oil sell off = algo trigger to sell all commodities. Beware folks. They are going to knock commodities lower before the election. Got to have happy voters driving around with $3.25 gasoline. Maybe $3.50.

This is why I was wondering in the SRS thread what the sell offs looked like post QEx (once things settled) in from a historical chart perspective.

ancientmoney Just A Regular Guy
Sep 17, 2012 - 6:30pm

@just a regular guy

Well said. My feelings as well. Obfuscation first, transparency last. Else the herd panics.

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:38pm

@reefman - nothing ambitious then?

reefman (September 17, 2012 - 11:03pm)

"My goal is to turn my initial $14,000 of electronic money into $250,000 by December."

Go, man, go! I'd be more than happy with a mere doubling of my fiat.

Do you have a newsletter?

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:43pm

Good vid:

Good vid:

Market Pullback = Shake Out, Buy Opportunity 09-17-2012
Just A Regular Guy
Sep 17, 2012 - 6:44pm

For the gamblers

I'm in on this silver miner AYN:ASX

Some stats: P/E: 3.40 P/B: 3.64 P/S: --

Price versus Earnings Per Share (probably @ a silver price of 28-30 AUD since the data is from last year): 0 EPS = share price of ~0.76 AUD.

Goddam I wish I had some more fiat to throw at this bad-boy (stupid woman/wedding thing) Like if silver sits higher, f**k me, this is a cash-cow! Their grades are not-so-bad and similarly a junior here I am in RDM:ASX. They might have a deposit similar to the BHP Cannington Mine...... yumyumyumyumyum!!!

Peace guys.

P.S. Mr.Furguson i'll ship you some fiat shortly sir. As I said, things for me are tight at the moment I truly do appreciate what you and everyone else here does and contributes.

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:46pm

@Puck re: Paleo

I'm right there with you Puck. My plan is to get a pressure canner and put up grass-fed beef, wild game stews in quart jars. I'll be hunting in 6 weeks and we always fill the freezer. Last year we got 8 deer between 3 of us.

Check out

...And Thank you TJeffson for answering my question.


Edit: Also thinking about raising rabbits. One breeding pair of New Zealand Whites give you a litter every 8 weeks of 6-12 new ones. They get to be 6-7 lbs each. At a conservative estimate.... that's over 100 lbs of meat a year from one breeding pair. They'll eat whatever is in your back yard..... you just need a movable pen. Not sure if I'll actually do this, but it sure seems doable.

Sep 17, 2012 - 6:54pm

here is a video..............

...that may make some of you weep

"They Are Already In Place" - The Coming Attack
Sep 17, 2012 - 6:59pm

We want:

Extremely negative lease rates + Backwardation.

Then they lose control.


reefman Sisyphus
Sep 17, 2012 - 7:05pm

@Sisyphus,It's all about


It's all about understanding percentages.

It's hard to imagine making 800% on anything these days, but with options making a 100% return isn't so hard. During that QEnfinity announcement some of my call options were up 200%.

For the sake of argument let's just say that we can easily attain a 100% return every once-in-a-while.

All one needs to do to attain an 800% return is to achieve THREE 100%'s in a row. That is not too hard to imagine with silver, given all the fundamental reasons why the price should rise.

Suppose one had $10,000 to start.

100% of 10,000 = $10,000, plus the initial = $20,000

100% of 20,000 = $20,000, plus the initial = $40,000

100% of 40,000 = $40,000, plus the initial = $80,000

And that's all there is to it - in three steps of 100% each you were able to attain 800% return.

Go here for options calculations. Plug in SLV and choose something on the cusp of In The Money for October, input your dollar amount (how many conracts) and see what a small move would mean....

PS: I do this as a full time job, I am here all day, every day and watching minute by minute, ready to exit or to buy puts.

Yes I know it's risky, and yes I know my brokerage can get Corzined, and yes I know the Cartel can raid on a Sunday evening..... that's why I take profits.

Sep 17, 2012 - 7:05pm

Iran says saboteurs cut power to nuclear plant

VIENNA | Mon Sep 17, 2012 4:24pm EDT

VIENNA (Reuters) - Power lines to Iran's most controversial nuclear enrichment plant were blown up a month ago, according to its atomic energy chief, who alleged on Monday that the U.N. nuclear watchdog may have been infiltrated by "terrorists and saboteurs".

The accusation coincides with strident Israeli warnings about the need to stem Iran's nuclear program with a threat of force, as well as new diplomatic efforts to secure better inspections and an abandonment of work that could be used to develop atomic weapons.

The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had no immediate response but Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani's comments seemed certain to overshadow those efforts.

He told the IAEA's annual assembly that power lines from the city of Qom to the underground Fordow plant had been blown up on August 17, and "the same act" had been carried out earlier on power lines to Iran's main enrichment plant, near the town of Natanz.

The plants use centrifuges to "enrich" uranium to a higher concentration of the fissile material that be used in nuclear power plans or nuclear weapons.

Fordow worries the West most as it produces uranium of 20 percent fissile purity, more than needed for power plants and only a short technical step from the 90 percent needed for a warhead.

"It should be recalled that power cut-off is one of the ways to break down centrifuge machines," Abbasi-Davani said.

On August 18, he said, an IAEA inspector had asked for an unannounced visit to Fordow, built 80 meters below ground to better protect it against enemy strikes.

"Does this visit have any connection to that detonation? Who, other than the IAEA inspector, can have access to the complex in such a short time to record and report failures?" he asked.

"Terrorists and saboteurs might have intruded the agency and might be making decisions covertly," he said, according to an official Iranian translation of his speech in Farsi.


He later told reporters that back-up power and other defenses had prevented any damage to the Fordow plant.

Abbasi-Davani did not say who he believed was behind the attacks, though Iran has often accused Israel and Tehran's Western foes of trying to sabotage its nuclear program.

At least four scientists associated with the program have been assassinated since 2010, most recently in January, and the Stuxnet computer virus was used to cause malfunctions in Iran's nuclear enrichment equipment....

I Run Bartertown
Sep 17, 2012 - 7:08pm

For Preppers

The Ant and The Grasshopper. (Twisted Version)

just weird



Good and true, but the conclusion to vote, vote, vote is silly...


Grasshoppers vs driver ants - Ant Attack - BBC wildlife

Nature. Ants don't go for that shit. The same capacity that enabled them to cooperate and survive the winter allows them to rally their Soldiers. Be the Ant. Eat the Grasshopper.

Naturally, if a video offends you, you should proceed immediately to the nearest embassy and behead some SOB.

ClinkinKY Doctor J
Sep 17, 2012 - 7:17pm

@ Dr J

For some reason your "blue pill posting" made the first line from "White Rabbit" pop into my head.

Not the second line, just the first

Haole Guy
Sep 17, 2012 - 7:20pm

Latest raid

That raid was like last weeks raid on Wednesday right before the QE3 announcement. I'm ready for the next leg up and it's looking like $37.50

Sep 17, 2012 - 7:21pm

@ Beastly Stack

… good n/t call re: bonds last week – while poised to resume aggressiveness towards the PM’s fwiw, I am nibbling / adding some short bond exposure for first time in quite a while as THE turn my be upon us (likely the ‘mother of all shorts’) – remaining small for now though as still too much uncertainty for my taste given USFed intervention although the bond mrkt will eventually overwhelm IMO

Dyna mo hum
Sep 17, 2012 - 7:25pm

For your entertainment only.

Jesse Ventura has an interview with Piers Morgan on CNN 9 eastern time. I am sure he will have an opinion on what's happening in the mid east and elsewhere.

Sep 17, 2012 - 7:39pm

The Money Masters

Someone earlier mentioned an upcoming BBC documentary on "The Masters of Money ".

That reminded me of this one so I thought I'd throw it out here for anyone who might be interested.


THE MONEY MASTERS is a 3 1/2 hour non-fiction, historical documentary that traces the origins of the political power structure that rules our nation and the world today. The modern political power structure has its roots in the hidden manipulation and accumulation of gold and other forms of money. The development of fractional reserve banking practices in the 17th century brought to a cunning sophistication the secret techniques initially used by goldsmiths fraudulently to accumulate wealth. With the formation of the privately-owned Bank of England in 1694, the yoke of economic slavery to a privately-owned "central" bank was first forced upon the backs of an entire nation, not removed but only made heavier with the passing of the three centuries to our day. Nation after nation, including America, has fallen prey to this cabal of international central bankers.

Video unavailable


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
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4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
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Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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