As The World Burns

275
Mon, Sep 17, 2012 - 10:45am

Another week is off and running. What will it hold? Will we all still be here come Friday?

Seriously, I'm starting to wonder. Maybe I'm beginning to get immunized somewhat to all of this craziness but don't things seem a bit out of hand? Maybe the world has always been this crazy and I've just never really noticed before? Nah, I'm going with the former. This is madness.

Think back to...let's say...1999 or so. Everything was peachy. Almost all of the countries in world were getting along just fine. Oh sure, there was the occasional battle in the Kashmir and you had No-Fly-Zones in Iraq, but I don't recall checking the news with dread every time I opened a browser. Now you never know what might flare up next and the entire world seems on the edge of conflagration. Actually, in my gut, the world doesn't just seem on the edge, I know that it is on the edge and this is sure keeping me from ever getting a good night's sleep.

The latest craziness is this whole China v. Japan issue. While I have little doubt that it was purposefully begun as a a way to "distract" the Chinese and "dissuade" them from getting too forceful in the Middle East, it seems to have really touched some raw nerves in China. Have you seen much of this in the mainstream media? Me, neither. Perhaps because it is potentially another Obama Regime blunder of such epic proportions that the MSM would prefer to ignore it in the hopes that it will all simmer down in due time. We'll see but you definitely need to take the time to scroll all of the way through this ZH article. Look at all of the pictures and read all of the captions. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/postcards-furious-china. And here's a companion piece that was posted just a few minutes ago: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/japanese-businesses-shuttering-chinese-facilities-mainland-anger-spreads. And, for the coup de grace, try this one on for size: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/china-japan-heading-towards-war-says-us-defence-secretary-leon-panetta/story-e6frg6so-1226475484583

For now, of course, this is just a sideshow. The real action is in the MENA where everything points to imminent conflict. You've got this: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9545597/Armada-of-British-naval-power-massing-in-the-Gulf-as-Israel-prepares-an-Iran-strike.html and this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-16/iran-revolutionary-guard-has-advisers-in-syria-lebanon.html. With this https://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012/09/17/syrian-jets-hit-lebanese-territory-near-border/57794026/1 and this https://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/09/navy-exercise.html. And, of course, there's all of this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/full-summary-latest-anti-american-sentiment. I think I'll head out today and buy some more .40 ammo, just in case. It's kind of like physical metal...If you have to ask yourself if you have enough, you probably don't.

The metals are getting whacked around a bit this morning which is perfectly fine. Both gold and silver would appear to be temporarily "overbought" again and need some time to work of some of the recent excesses. As discussed last week, all significant dips must be bought as QE~ means price is moving inexorably higher.

And, after reading through the comments of my Saturday post, I feel as if I should clarify my remarks a little. First and foremost, I was/is/am very excited that The Cartels got caught wrong-footed last week. Everything shows that their intention was to smash price, just like they did on Leap Day. They were hoping for either some "disappointment" out of the German Constitutional Court on Wednesday or The Fed on Thursday. They got neither and, consequently, took it in the shorts (no pun intended). HAHAHA you arrogant jerks!

This is/was not intended though to give you the impression that it is a straight up rocket ride from here for the metals. It, most assuredly, won't be. There will be raids and corrections just like there always have been. This difference now is that every correction will be bought and bottoms will be quickly found. Can we still see brief 5-10% drops in silver and 3-5% drops in gold? Of course! The Cartels are trapped massively short and they will manipulate as much as they can in order to cover as much as possible. But in the end, they are screwed. The game has changed regardless of whether they want to see or admit it.

Prices will continue to advance in stages and this is why I encourage you to buy all dips. Not the intraday $10 kind of dip. I'm talking about the real, raid-type dips where gold falls $30 or $50. Physical demand is so high and supply is so tight (particularly in silver) that paper price dips can only be driven so far. Massive physical orders emerge and, unless The Cartels want to further exacerbate their supply issues, price must be allowed to rebound. You end up with a "stair" type pattern as seen on the charts above or a steady sloping pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Either way, gold and silver will undoubtedly continue higher and will likely do so at an increasing pace as The Cartels get increasingly desperate against their untenable position of underwater shorts and need-to-be-repaid leases.

You could even look at today's action as a microcosm of this. The short algos and The Cartels have tried to drop price enough to shake out some longs and relieve some pressure. They've tried this even in the face of a falling POSX. So far, they've failed miserably and now they are on the cusp of getting run the other way. If forced to cover the shorts they put on just today, price will quickly move toward 1780 and 34.

I leave you today with another gem of an article from Jim Quinn. Jim has been doing excellent work chronicling the real demise and destruction of middle-income America. This new article is very well done but really quite sad to read. https://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=40366.

I'll be keeping an eye on things and will post again if conditions warrant. In the meantime, I'm off to Cabela's.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  275 Comments

Bugzy
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:30pm

That's not what I'm saying

Surely, you can go to your LCS or log onto HAA and buy some.

What I'm talking about is physical, in size. 10,000,000 or 15,000,000 ounces. Delivered outside of the LBMA system. I have firsthand knowledge that this is extraordinarily difficult to accomplish. Reluctance to deliver is a dead giveaway of the shortage of actual metal. Oh sure, the banks can create and outlast all the paper metal they please. Having to deliver it is something else entirely.

Bollocks
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:31pm

Any Turdite in the UK...

... who could do with a good laugh tonight, be sure to check out this new documentary on BBC2 at 9pm:

"Masters of Money"
Episode 1 of 3

"Stephanie Flanders explores the ideas of three influential thinkers who transformed international economics, and examines how their influence has shaped the 20th and 21st centuries.

She begins by profiling John Maynard Keynes, the Cambridge-born economist whose ideas revolutionised the approach of Western governments to financial crises during the Great Depression and the Second World War, and explains why the world's leaders drew on his teachings as the global meltdown took hold in 2008"




Byzantium
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:42pm

@Bollocks

Where would we be without the telly to tell us what to think, eh?

Dyna mo hum
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:45pm
thurd aye
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:45pm

So there I was checking the

So there I was checking the price my dealer would give me for my au. $1550+-,not bad. Then I thought to myself "What the hell are you thinking?..You have been through ALL this crap, you have read about shale.wars,China,colloidal silver,Muslims,yadda yadda , and now you want to sell?"

Of course I came to myself in a few minutes, but it was close there for a while.Strong hand I consider myself,that's a laugh.With the biggest bull market erupting any day now, I think I should sell.I reckon the Devil himself got in there somehow,but he ain't there now.Get behind me Satan.Hello Blythe, Jamie BTW.

;O))

upped one thread

Richard Booze Just A Regular Guy
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:51pm

Er, Regular Guy

Based on the scores of photos of violence against Japan in China, it would appear that the "Australian" got it right. Facts are facts.

You might want to pay a little more attention to that "toilet rag".

Republicans in the USA are not right-wing fringe lunatics. We simply want smaller government and less taxes -- and more freedom at the expense of Big Brother "security" and micro-management. We also value a press that gives us unbiased truth, though we get little of that.

Please do not belittle us.

Very informative articles, Mr. Ferguson. We're obliged.

Jan Roos
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:52pm

Thurd Aye

Are you in RSA still? If so, who do you buy through?

Cheers

Fr. Bill
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:56pm

Nigel Farage Fined $4,000 for Tacky-talking

Read all about it here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/nigel-farage-bailing-out-eu-one-fine-time

Sheesh! What wimps those EU MPs are! Someone oughta send 'em to a US school of journalism somewhere, or to the Institute for Democratic Party Factotums and PR Specialists.

Bollocks
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:56pm

@Byzantium

Exactly. That's why I'm treating it as a comedy .

No, that's a bit unfair. BBC documentaries are still generally very good to excellent (and therefore soon forgotten / never mentioned again - especially when truths are uncovered).

At an hour long (and with no ads to distract), this documentary will probably be very well researched and well-balanced.

It's everything else that the BBC do and report on nowadays that's a complete joke.

SilverTree
Sep 17, 2012 - 1:58pm

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