The Week That Was

Sat, Sep 15, 2012 - 12:03pm

I tried to warn you that this week was going to be wild. I expected the pressure and intensity to ramp up with each successive day and it most certainly did. By Friday, everyone was ready for the weekend. That's fine but, come Monday, you'd better be ready.

What a fantastic week we had. Made even more special by the fact that we were set up for a disaster. Recall that I had been warning you for about 10 days that a Cartel Raid seemed on the horizon. They looked like they were once again setting everyone up for a massive beatdown. By the looks of the CoT yesterday, I was exactly right.

The situation, as it turned out, was eerily similar. Let's take a look:

December 2011: The price of gold bottomed late in December 2011 at $1525. The CoT also "bottomed" at a total gross Cartel short position of 325,960 and a net short ratio (gross shorts divided by gross longs) of 1.98:1. The price of silver bottomed at $26.40. The silver CoT bottomed with 55,356 gross shorts and a net short ratio of 1.34:1.

Jan-Feb 2012: The metals then took off on a two month rally, peaking on Tuesday, February 28. Gold reached $1790 (+17%) and silver made it to $37.50 (+34%). The CoT taken that afternoon showed a complete reversal from December. Now the total gross short position in gold was 390,412 with a net short ratio of 2.69:1. The total gross short position in silver had reached 78,395 and a net short ratio of 2.32:1.

And what happened the next day, 2/29/12? Using The Bernank's Capitol Hill testimony as cover, the bid side of the metals was overwhelmed by Cartel manipulation and a 3-month, short-covering beatdown ensued.

Gold bottomed again almost exactly three months later on Wednesday, May 30, 2012 at $1537. Two days later, the employment report for May was released and QE has been on everyone's lips since. On Tuesday, May 29, the CoT once again looked like this:

May 2012: On 5/29/12, the total gross short position of The Gold Cartel stood at 300,917 and the net short ratio had fallen all the way to 1.77:1. In silver, the gross short position was back to 60,151 and the net short ratio had fallen back to 1.31:1.

It had all been a set-up. From the lows in December, spec money flowed into the metals and The Cartels welcomed every dollar. At the peak, The Bernank was rolled out in front of the cameras to put off QE and The Cartels attacked. Over the next 90 days, they covered all of their fresh shorts and then waited all summer to play the game again.

August-September 2011: The final bottom for gold occurred on June 28 at $1552 and silver reached $26.21. The CoT on June 26 was once again at a "bottom", too. On Tuesday, July 10, the total gross short position of The Gold Cartel was 316,165 and the net short ratio was 1.93:1. The total gross silver short position was 62,478 and the ratio was 1.29:1.

As of this past Tuesday, September 11, look how things had changed again. Prices had risen considerably. Gold closed on Tuesday at $1735 (+12%) and silver closed at $33.56 (+28%). The total Gold Cartel gross short position was once again 380,239 and the net short ratio was 2.66:1. The total Cartel gross silver short position was 79,478 and the net short ratio was 2.47:1.

The Cartels had set us up again. The point is this: If the Fed had "disappointed, if The Bernank had put off all new QE until after the election, there can be zero doubt that we would have, once again, seen a massive, manipulative raid on gold and silver.

In hindsight, do you recall the very sharp and brief spike down that occurred about 10 minutes before the Fedlines were released on Thursday? This was almost certainly someone or something with foreknowledge of the raid, attempting to front-run The Cartels. By now, we all know what happened, instead. Rather than being "saved" by The Bernank and using "no QE" as cover to screw everyone once more, QE~ was announced and now The Cartels are trapped!

We'll use the days ahead to go into greater detail on the implications of this but rest assured for today that sharply higher prices are coming. QE~ only serves to increase the global demand for physical metal. This demand will underpin any attempts by The Cartels to start a selloff. Over time, they will be forced to cover at an accelerating pace, similar to April 2011 in silver and August 2011 in gold. There will be panics and you can count on every dirty trick imaginable being thrown at the "markets". This time, however, it's not going to work. With QE~ as a backdrop, every dip will be bought, each successive low will be higher. The overconfident and greedy fools could/should have used this time to draw flat and perhaps even go net long. Instead they arrogantly chose to play their games one more time. This time, however, they will lose. The game is over and the fireworks have begun, even if the players seemingly haven't yet heard the final whistle.

Only one reading assignment this weekend and it's this piece from Brandon Smith at Alt-Market. This is one that you need to read carefully and then print it off and keep for posterity.

Lastly, once again I beg everyone to recognize that this main thread is for the discussion of precious metals and issues affecting such. It is OK to reference events in the MENA as the current situation there clearly has an impact on the global economy, the price of oil and the equity markets. It is not OK to get into pissing matches regarding "radical Islam", "Zionism", "American Imperialism" and the like. There are forums for that and I've even gone to the trouble of setting one up for you: Going forward, I am simply going to delete and remove comments from this main thread that I feel are set to hijack the discussion and turn people away from the education that this site provides. No exceptions. Got it?

OK, with that, I wish everyone a fantastic and restful weekend. Come back on Monday prepared for another wild and crazy week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 15, 2012 - 11:49pm

uhh.....well.. ummm

I just really don't know what to say here without using frequent prior Navy speak.

Sep 15, 2012 - 11:50pm


Listen to the songs.

Video unavailable
Sly & The Family Stone - A Family Affair

Make any sense?

Sep 15, 2012 - 11:55pm

Auric on timing

If the recommendation is to buy silver when it dips, what if it does not "dip" from here?

I've been where you're at and will probably be there again but...
buying on an uptick so as to avoid losing out on a continued rise is herd mentality and definitely NOT BTFD.
There will be a dip. It may be at a figure that is much higher than the current price but I can assure you, there will be a dip.
Here's the best advice I can offer you.
Buy the dip using only a portion of your allotted cash. Now if the dip continues, at least your downside has been reduced and you can take your time deciding where in this continuing contraction you want to apply further funds. I've found that it can always fall much, much further than anyone ever expected. That's just silver being silver.

Of course, if you called the dip right in the first place, you're hero and a genius. Don't count on doing it everytime and wait for the next dip. I almost always experience a decline of some sort immediately after buying in. It's enough to make me paranoid and start tearing apart my office to find the spycam.

Sep 15, 2012 - 11:56pm


Sorry, no interpersonal angst to share, just hoping for some pm related discussion. I have a question I should probably pose on a traders forum rather than a stackers forum, but I think there are a few on here that could have some useful insight on this.

Now that QE3 is reality and the fiscal cliff/debt ceiling approaches I think we can all see some high prices ahead for PMs, and that's without the help of a HEH event. I have mainly physical pms and physical pm trading accounts but am also considering a go at fiat generation with play money using the riskier route of USLV triple leveraged long silver etf. I've been reading around the decay issue and associated risks and find views very polarised. Some people refuse to hold overnight. Others have been holding long and strong since May and posting huge gains. Anybody got experience with this and could offer some account of how much the decay issue impacts percentage gains say on a 4-month hold?

Would be useful to know a bit more about this before jumping in, especially given I may need to hold through an eye-watering smackdown just ahead.


Sep 16, 2012 - 12:10am

USLV @ RunRunRun

I hold USLV/UGLD (and their evil twins, DSLV/DGLD) for very long periods of time. The decay for USLV is pretty minimal. Some leveraged funds are crazy bad, but I've done very well with both USLV and UGLD, matching the performance to SLV and GLD 3x as expected.

I've held USLV for the last month, and it has kicked ass:

I watch it daily, I watch it weekly, I watch it monthly. I'm holding 40% of my IRA in USLV, and I sleep very soundly.

The VIX funds (like UVXY), on the other hand, decay about 0.5% per DAY. Scary bad.

Sep 16, 2012 - 12:13am


If you didn't get it try doing this........

Sly & The Family Stone - Dance To The Music - Music Lover.flv

....if that don't help ya...nothing will.

Sep 16, 2012 - 12:16am


Mommy FED is not going to hurt the babies. Unless she's hungry.

Sep 16, 2012 - 12:30am

For those that stand for the Rule of Law and Truth

Video unavailable

Until you know the facts, you really can't stand up for truth. Witness what has happened to your country.


Sep 16, 2012 - 12:41am

After reading thru 190 comments...

Why do I even run a website that doesn't agree 100% with the way you view the world?

That's funny.

Good night.

Katie Rose
Sep 16, 2012 - 12:43am

more on alfalfa

We are one of the few places in the nation that was able to grow and harvest alfalfa this year. We were not able to get a third cutting due to lack of rain and a late first harvest, but our fields were green and lush. We are extremely fortunate.

I don't know how the hay dealers in the rest of the country found us, but they surely did. And farmer, after farmer, after farmer sold their entire crop before harvest. I have never scrambled like I had to this Fall in order to secure food for my animals. I am 1/2 ton short, but feel extremely blessed to have enough to squeak through till Spring. I would like another ton, but have no idea where to get it. Oh, there are unethical folks who are saying their 60 lb. bales weigh 90-95 lbs., but I am not interested in doing business with them. They still have a few bales of hay left. No Thank You!

I am hearing that many were not so lucky. The alfalfa is gone, sold right out of the field. Usually there are hay barns stacked to the brim waiting for buyers, with farmers hoping that it will all sell. Not this year! It is all gone.

One of the local feed stores has begun to sell Timothy Pellets by the pallet (half ton) to those not fortunate enough to find any hay. Unbelievable! This is Fall and people are going to be buying pellets all Winter long!?!?

Last month I ordered a half ton of barley for my Redneck Fodder Experiment. I ordered it directly from a local farmer. He pre-sold it to me at the going rate, 12 cents a pound, $120.00 a half ton. When I went to pick it up this week I could tell I would need more, as I had no clue how much volume a half ton of barley was. So I asked if I could purchase another half ton. He smiled sweetly and said, "I haven't any. Since we spoke last month, the price I receive for barley went up to 18 cents a pound. I sold my entire crop. It's gone."

That is the word around here. GONE! Sold! GONE!

No full hay barns. No bales languishing in the fields waiting for buyers. No barley for sale. No wheat for sale. No oats for sale. It's all gone.

I will be driving over 200 miles round trip to pick up 80 lb bags of oats, wheat, and barley for my fodder experiment. There is none available locally. Every time I speak with the mill, it has gone up in price.

People who come to TF Metals are usually a cut above average. I'll let you draw your own conclusions from my personal experiences.

One thing I have learned from all this. Having personal relationships with local farmers has really paid off. And having been ethical with the farmers in the past, having kept my word when I have ordered from them, has made it possible for me to feed my animals this winter.

I hope you are filling your pantries right now. With QE III, a terrible Midwest harvest, and saber rattling everywhere, it is only a matter of time before the food shortages lead to food riots.

I truly do not see any other outcome.

RunRunRun Irksome
Sep 16, 2012 - 12:44am


Thanks brother, I appreciate that.

I think I will join you.

I'm just revving up my time machine, with dials set for one month ago.

SE beinki
Sep 16, 2012 - 12:45am

@ Beinki

"Mariposa de Oro here is my video where I perform anti bacteria tests."

Beinki, how long have you used colloidal silver? It appears in the video that your bottom lip and maybe your chin area is turning blue. That might be a sign of argyria.

However, as long as you keep doing this, you're slowly dwindling down the amount of silver available in above-ground form, unless you're peeing it into a bucket and recycling it for what little silver might be in there. I wonder how many thousands of people are doing colloidal silver per year, and how many ounces per person. Thanks for making silver more rare. By the way, before long, you might be able to find work with the Blue Man Group.

Sep 16, 2012 - 1:02am

Thanks Katie,

Even with QE3 being announced, ie more money, it's already gone.

"No full hay barns. No bales languishing in the fields waiting for buyers. No barley for sale. No wheat for sale. No oats for sale. It's all gone."

I'm taking note that it isn't available at higher prices.


Sep 16, 2012 - 1:04am

After reading thru 190 comments...

I think Turd is about to go down the rabbit hole to figure out what is really going on!


Sep 16, 2012 - 1:15am

for DPH.......

Video unavailable
Sep 16, 2012 - 1:19am

@Karankawa: Paul Craig Roberts


I know you posted the Paul Craig Roberts link because of the current lead article, The Revolution From Above, but his 9/11 piece right below it was astounding. I've always had a great deal of respect for Roberts even though I disagree with him on some rather substantial issues--mainly political philosophy and economics--because he is obviously one of the few grown-ups to have worked in the federal government for a long, long time. The case he makes for 9/11 skepticism in that article is devastating. That is one area where I have resisted going because I always considered it a distraction from more important issues, but between Architects and Engineers For 9/11 Truth and the case presented by Roberts it's getting more difficult to pretend it doesn't matter.

I'm not trying to start a Main Street debate on the topic and I won't respond to those who want to turn it into that. I just had to get that off my chest.

Everyone should definitely read The Revolution From Above because it is germane to "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment"

Sep 16, 2012 - 1:34am


I'm not an economist, but that has got to be about the most stupid article on economic subjects I've ever read.

Sep 16, 2012 - 1:46am

Thanks for the reply Puck

While nothing is easy, I think making a forum as you describe would be a great effort. And I might bookmark to check it before the main site.

I really have no goals other than to leave this world having fought to defend the truth and the rule of law.

I've been somewhat active in my local political community for the last 5 years and those words (Truth and Rule of Law) scare the ever living shit out of THEM who have been in control. And when you bring up the obvious in a meeting they go balistic. And they have to show it in front of the sheep.

Witness the RNC. Rule of law out the window.

I really appreciate Turd's site here, but if he excludes truth for political reasons I will accept and respect it, but will understand it as so.

Too many other places to discuss truthful matters. And more showing up all the time.

The key thing is a community of 'people' are being formed that respect the truth, that will drive the NSA fusion centers insane as Truth has no central location in their jurisdiction. :)

Never has, and never will.


letey petey
Sep 16, 2012 - 1:47am

Catherine Austin Fitts

Hey Turd -

Let me chime in on your connecting with Catherine Austin Fitts.

Seven years ago (!), CAF was instrumental in my putting the pieces together on how our financial system really works. I had read so many "theories" before finding her. She made it so clear why such theories could be plausible in the most steely, hard-boiled way - she showed me the $$$ cui bono of the "parasite" economy.

Five years later, I found you Turd, and you helped me to protect myself from those parasites. Thank you.

I cant think of a more enlightening, edifying, and entertaining podcast than one you would do with Catherine. Please make it so, Turd!

Ccanuck letey petey
Sep 16, 2012 - 2:04am


CAF broke my financial knowledge cherry, she has way about speaking, easy to listen to, and understand for the non-educated.

There should be much more attention paid to her Great Ideas about local economies, I believe they are part of the solution, that will protect main street from Wall street predators.

Thanks Turd, the site is great, f#$k anyone who says otherwise.


Sep 16, 2012 - 2:10am

JPM, MF Global, Silver Manipulation Scheme Connection

Turd or anyone else, has there been a report or a connection made between JPM's involvement in the MFG scandal and the failed attempt by WB and Co. from Yahoo Finance msg board? Also, could this be the scandal Bill Murphy's source referenced in his recent interview in which he called for an August breakout due to some news or scandal of JPM that would expose JPM? I'm wondering if these two bits of "rumor" (Bill Murphy and WB) corroborate each other, or at the very least are consistent. Here are the 2 sources:;_ylt=AgrKrs9s6oeopWghV0oAbt...

While Bill Murphy is an extremely credible source, he lacks details. WB, on the other hand, has all sorts of details (time and price) but because of last years failure to deliver on their promise, lost all credibility. I am interested in re-examining this whole plot. If there is some truth in what WB says, that they failed to take down JPM and keep silver above $36/oz because of the JPM/MFG illegality... well, you know the rest. WB claims to be back in operation, immune to another MFG scandal. As much as I hate to rely on the unsubstantiated rumors on a yahoo msg board, it played quite nicely back in 2011, and could be quite an event this go around too.

letey petey
Sep 16, 2012 - 2:17am

@SE re:colloidal silver

D'oh! Arrrrrrrgggghhhh. Really?! Oy vey.

From my calculations, at 20ppm and a Tbsp/day, an ardent colloidal silver ingestor would consume 100g/yr +- 20%. For the Americans in the crowd still wed to the English system, thats 1/5 to 1/4 an ounce PER YEAR. Yah those CS ingestors are usin' up ALL the silver. Its not the electronics, used catheters, thrown-away microbial shirts and TOMAHAWK MISSLES FFS; you need to guilt on the CS ingestors........

Full disclosure: I dont take CS, but am currently evaluating it.

ClinkinKY TF
Sep 16, 2012 - 2:20am

@ TF-Your post offends me. You are now...

...on my IU list. Oh, wait:)


After reading thru 190 comments...

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on September 16, 2012 - 12:41am. MODERATOR Hat Tip! 13

Why do I even run a website that doesn't agree 100% with the way you view the world?

That's funny.

Good night.

Sep 16, 2012 - 2:42am

A mystery? Really?

Mystery Spheres on Mars Baffle Scientists

"They seem to be crunchy on the outside, and softer in the middle," Squyres said. "They are different in concentration. They are different in structure. They are different in composition. They are different in distribution.


No wonder our space program is in such disarray:)

Sep 16, 2012 - 3:03am

@syk: Bill Murphy interview

It's always good to hear Bill Murphy and I'm glad he is getting so much exposure. GATA is definitely a force for good.

On a side note, Daniela Cambone is a feast for the eyes. And that voice! Oh, my.

Sep 16, 2012 - 3:15am

Bill Maher Arrested For His Film...

..."Religulous" which caused rioting and deaths of American embassy personnel.

Wait...wrong person...wrong political motive.

In the words of Samuel L. Jackson..."Wake the f*#k up..." (although his statement was intended to motivate people who would applaud this type of blatant disregard for the 1st Amendment)

Disclaimer: I don't care if you're pro-religion, pro-Muslim, pro-Christian, pro "spaghetti monster"...if you don't see a problem with this then you are asleep.

Sep 16, 2012 - 3:35am

Gold prediction reality comparison and extension to Nov 1 2012

These are just my old predictions ( see dates for each color) which I now copy pasted from old Longer term charts, including also prediction towards Novemeber 1st ( from the same old charts) and updated actual price.

These show that al increase in precious metals until then will happen in silver. Why it should be so I do not now, given the previous short term accuracy in any given period the charts could be 100 USD off, even 150 USD in last bottom, so.. The range of gold if we assume it should grow a bit more is capped by these charts to max 1850- 1925 till November 1st.

However, of course, on this particular day I choose to post them, both May 5th, 2011 and October 17, 2011 ( yes there is still a mistake in the chart saying 3011!-will correct with next update) they are of course almost spot on.

In any case, 1850 on November 1st sounds very OK as with GSR 48, that leads to silver 38,5. 1925/48 -> silver 40 - a bit high, I think. Click right button, View Image to see the dates and prices. The charts are getting very long horizontally for this kind of details info to be included. But, as of today, they look in general valid if one thinks of long term accuracy- it has been at most 8% -10% off, sometimes spot on, so I think (have not calculated ) average is around 6%. More or less, should have ( has to me) given a piece of mind before the coming true HEHs that will move gold over 2000 USD. There is still some time. Or, like silver chart, may be its time for this one diverge big time as well (gold moves up faster). Well, i think this one will be pretty accurate within the stated observed error range. No panic yet, as max increase is capped at 5%. its different in silver, where max increase is around 11% during the same time.

If You wish to see more charts, they are all here:

Sep 16, 2012 - 3:46am

Another interesting chart I made on Feb 25, 2012


I lost the original working file so I could not update the prediction and post actual ( but these You know, it is around 13500 now as the chart says). The drop after elections is a bit confusing to me, I would like to have this updated, as I am using quite straightforward method to forecast, but its hell of a job timewise.

If anyone can find a reason for such a drop after elections when QE3 has been announced, welcome. It kind of caps the effect of QE3 on stocks at November 2011, at least expect some sort of correction which has been long due.

By the way, if anyone can provide link to a site where I can just copy the DJIA line chart without shading area and with possibility to set customized dates, and which I can stretch and squeeze in all directions, I may try to use that. Not Adobe Flash Player made charts - they do not copy.

Sep 16, 2012 - 3:55am

Oil (ICE Brent Crude!) prediction chart from July 25, 2012

And this is one late prediction chart that is doing well today, spot on:

What this would say, is , war with Iran begins January 2013 and is successfully finished in the first stage at September 2013. First stages have always been successful for the USA in last 20 years, why not now? Rest of MENA kept under control at least till Jan 2014 plus a possible demand drop due to economic reasons during 2014. USD as safe heaven? Could be as well , did not happen during Iraq war, besides , US debt will add an extra trillion due to the war /recession in 2013 to the usual more than 1 trillion borrowing rate.

Let us see, Oil is telling what market thinks about was in Iran. I will get into it after elections as then log-periodic structures should appear in oil price charts trying to predict the beginning of the war.

Sep 16, 2012 - 4:19am

The Banking Cartel (Fed) courtesy of G. Edward Griffin

If only Americans knew this...

G. Edward Griffin - Understanding the Banking Cartel, Interview by

Mentioned Links -


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