The Week That Was

Sat, Sep 15, 2012 - 12:03pm

I tried to warn you that this week was going to be wild. I expected the pressure and intensity to ramp up with each successive day and it most certainly did. By Friday, everyone was ready for the weekend. That's fine but, come Monday, you'd better be ready.

What a fantastic week we had. Made even more special by the fact that we were set up for a disaster. Recall that I had been warning you for about 10 days that a Cartel Raid seemed on the horizon. They looked like they were once again setting everyone up for a massive beatdown. By the looks of the CoT yesterday, I was exactly right.

The situation, as it turned out, was eerily similar. Let's take a look:

December 2011: The price of gold bottomed late in December 2011 at $1525. The CoT also "bottomed" at a total gross Cartel short position of 325,960 and a net short ratio (gross shorts divided by gross longs) of 1.98:1. The price of silver bottomed at $26.40. The silver CoT bottomed with 55,356 gross shorts and a net short ratio of 1.34:1.

Jan-Feb 2012: The metals then took off on a two month rally, peaking on Tuesday, February 28. Gold reached $1790 (+17%) and silver made it to $37.50 (+34%). The CoT taken that afternoon showed a complete reversal from December. Now the total gross short position in gold was 390,412 with a net short ratio of 2.69:1. The total gross short position in silver had reached 78,395 and a net short ratio of 2.32:1.

And what happened the next day, 2/29/12? Using The Bernank's Capitol Hill testimony as cover, the bid side of the metals was overwhelmed by Cartel manipulation and a 3-month, short-covering beatdown ensued.

Gold bottomed again almost exactly three months later on Wednesday, May 30, 2012 at $1537. Two days later, the employment report for May was released and QE has been on everyone's lips since. On Tuesday, May 29, the CoT once again looked like this:

May 2012: On 5/29/12, the total gross short position of The Gold Cartel stood at 300,917 and the net short ratio had fallen all the way to 1.77:1. In silver, the gross short position was back to 60,151 and the net short ratio had fallen back to 1.31:1.

It had all been a set-up. From the lows in December, spec money flowed into the metals and The Cartels welcomed every dollar. At the peak, The Bernank was rolled out in front of the cameras to put off QE and The Cartels attacked. Over the next 90 days, they covered all of their fresh shorts and then waited all summer to play the game again.

August-September 2011: The final bottom for gold occurred on June 28 at $1552 and silver reached $26.21. The CoT on June 26 was once again at a "bottom", too. On Tuesday, July 10, the total gross short position of The Gold Cartel was 316,165 and the net short ratio was 1.93:1. The total gross silver short position was 62,478 and the ratio was 1.29:1.

As of this past Tuesday, September 11, look how things had changed again. Prices had risen considerably. Gold closed on Tuesday at $1735 (+12%) and silver closed at $33.56 (+28%). The total Gold Cartel gross short position was once again 380,239 and the net short ratio was 2.66:1. The total Cartel gross silver short position was 79,478 and the net short ratio was 2.47:1.

The Cartels had set us up again. The point is this: If the Fed had "disappointed, if The Bernank had put off all new QE until after the election, there can be zero doubt that we would have, once again, seen a massive, manipulative raid on gold and silver.

In hindsight, do you recall the very sharp and brief spike down that occurred about 10 minutes before the Fedlines were released on Thursday? This was almost certainly someone or something with foreknowledge of the raid, attempting to front-run The Cartels. By now, we all know what happened, instead. Rather than being "saved" by The Bernank and using "no QE" as cover to screw everyone once more, QE~ was announced and now The Cartels are trapped!

We'll use the days ahead to go into greater detail on the implications of this but rest assured for today that sharply higher prices are coming. QE~ only serves to increase the global demand for physical metal. This demand will underpin any attempts by The Cartels to start a selloff. Over time, they will be forced to cover at an accelerating pace, similar to April 2011 in silver and August 2011 in gold. There will be panics and you can count on every dirty trick imaginable being thrown at the "markets". This time, however, it's not going to work. With QE~ as a backdrop, every dip will be bought, each successive low will be higher. The overconfident and greedy fools could/should have used this time to draw flat and perhaps even go net long. Instead they arrogantly chose to play their games one more time. This time, however, they will lose. The game is over and the fireworks have begun, even if the players seemingly haven't yet heard the final whistle.

Only one reading assignment this weekend and it's this piece from Brandon Smith at Alt-Market. This is one that you need to read carefully and then print it off and keep for posterity.

Lastly, once again I beg everyone to recognize that this main thread is for the discussion of precious metals and issues affecting such. It is OK to reference events in the MENA as the current situation there clearly has an impact on the global economy, the price of oil and the equity markets. It is not OK to get into pissing matches regarding "radical Islam", "Zionism", "American Imperialism" and the like. There are forums for that and I've even gone to the trouble of setting one up for you: Going forward, I am simply going to delete and remove comments from this main thread that I feel are set to hijack the discussion and turn people away from the education that this site provides. No exceptions. Got it?

OK, with that, I wish everyone a fantastic and restful weekend. Come back on Monday prepared for another wild and crazy week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 15, 2012 - 12:08pm

Top Ten?

On a weekend too!

No number 2!

New all time record for me.

(Bows graciously)

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:11pm

Thanks Turd

For all you do.

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:16pm



I have really gotten interested in Colloidal Silver thanks to Beinki.........I have not seen him on here for some time, but I would like to set up a forum on this subject if there are others interested.

If we could get Beinki in on this or any one who has experience with it to Q&A, it would be an interesting topic.

El Gordo
Sep 15, 2012 - 12:24pm

Let's go shopping

I've got fiat ready to burn, so here we go. No waiting to see what happens tomorrow, just dive in head first.

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:25pm


I think we will see some more raids. We will view those raids as our opportunities. they should be brief and IMO brief could be measured in hours or even minutes.

When metals were in their uptrend 18-24 months ago there were raids. On almost every occasion I bought equity options as a short term trade and most were rather profitable--the losers were a ding.

When the sentiment or whatever you want to call it turned south, I went small on options and lost small (but losing is never fun especially when your core position is losing too).

So I think the current market dictates my strategy from 18-24 months ago-fundamentals could not be better. in the 2 years nothing has been fixed and indeed worsened. The Fed message is things are for the birds. The Obama message is give me time (aka I want to kick the can down the road some more and by the time I am out of office Obamacare will be as ingrained in society as medicare and social security regardless of the little detail of that all are unaffordable).

I keep on looking for how the hell we get out of this mess and I cannot find a reasonable answer.

Gold, silver, food, friends, guns, ammo and some sort of escape plan.

Sad, but true.

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:31pm

Net Short

Hi. I'm new here. Could someone explain to me how the net short ratio is calculated? I am confused as to how this ratio could be anything except for 1.

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:37pm

*7 ~ Calender moving forward...

Thanks for the update TF

Seven Mary Three Cumbersome Lyrics
Vasoline - Stone Temple Pilots ~ Lyrics
Sep 15, 2012 - 12:37pm

A Little Something

Moonlight In Vermont
Moonlight Serenade
Best B
Sep 15, 2012 - 12:41pm

Dont Forget

Quadruple Witching Day this coming Friday, most assuredly adding to the volatility.

Best B

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:43pm

Obligatory No. 9

The Beatles-Number nine
Swift Boat Vet
Sep 15, 2012 - 12:46pm

LCS Report

Went to my local coin shop Friday to pick up some generic rounds I contracted for earlier and asked about general sentiment and how sales/purchases were. The last week, like the last month or more , saw them buy quite a bit more metal than they sold. It was his definite take that they were selling to pay bills and not because any sentiment had changed. Just a note FWIW


Sep 15, 2012 - 12:47pm

@ SilverFocker Colloidal Silver

I received an email a few years back from the person who turned me on to PM's 4 years ago on how to make colloidal silver at home but I've never made the effort to do it. HOWEVER, about 7 years ago my mother gave me her sterling silverware and I decided to use it as my everyday utensils. I swear I haven't been sick in 7 years - not even a minor cold! So I'm a believer - just a lazy believer.

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:49pm

In was in the text

"(gross shorts divided by gross longs)"

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:51pm

Silver News


MCX Commodities to witness selling pressure; Gold, Silver down 1%

Updated 18:05 IST 14 Sep 2012

“How market will react for rest of the day depends upon today release 6:00 PM data: list of data going to release this evening including Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production; the last one may impact base metal prices.” said Amrita Mashar, Manger Research, Commodity Online.

  • QE3: May not be a U-turn for the global economy
Silver Trading Strategy Silver Technical Analysis Silver Market Pulse

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:53pm
Sep 15, 2012 - 12:55pm

New Perth Lunar series

In the previous thread, somebody pointed out that the Year of the Snake coins are out.

I thought it was a little early, but my "dealer" already had them and they're on their way now :-)

The 10 ounce version is still selling for 304€ (including VAT) which would even be an ok price for a regular non-collector 10 ounce coin.

Get them while they're still cheap ;-)

Sep 15, 2012 - 12:55pm

Lease rates?

I'm seeing lease rates hitting the lows seen before other smackdowns...any thoughts on this? I think we at -.43 for the one month.

Sep 15, 2012 - 1:00pm

The Most Humungous Bubble of Them All!

The U$ dollar. The almighty buck. The globes de facto reserve currency.

This particular bubble has been building for generations. Now it is just too huge to last much longer.

The terminal moment of end point expansion is upon us. Consider that since Nixon 'closed' the gold window in 1971, the US dollar has 'lost' 83% of it's purchasing power, and since the inception of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the US dollar has 'lost' 98% of it's purchasing power.

The purchasing power of the dollar did not get "lost", it was inflated away by those in charge of it's supply.

The exponential growth of this supply is now in it's vertical terminal phase, with the Fed's announcement yesterday of open ended QE III. The common thing with all bubbles is that they eventually pop. When this "Dollar Bubble" pops...

Lets just say you MUST be ready before hand. It won't be pretty, however will be VERY messy.

Prepare now. Do not wait any longer. Time is growing VERY short indeed! Good luck.

Thieving Corp.
Sep 15, 2012 - 1:01pm

Sep 15, 2012 - 1:06pm


You get hat tips just for posting those beautiful pics of metals.

What a stash of gold!

I went long on AGQ this week. Gunning for a nice profit if the HEH summer invades the fall and winter. Wrote about the position in the last thread.

In my book, Turd's promise of the HEH summer has come to pass with the rise from 27-28 range in August to 34.60 in Early September. I don't want to hear anyone complain that Turd's prediction was bogus. I call 20% in three weeks "explosive."

Sep 15, 2012 - 1:08pm

Net Shorts

Thanks for the response Turd. I'm a slow learner though. My understanding is that there have to be just as many shorts as there are longs for a given contract. I'm mistaken here somehow. Could you or someone give me some more insight or maybe point me somewhere to learn? Thankss guys.

Silver Danny
Sep 15, 2012 - 1:11pm

Old Post

I posted this June 5 of this year........ Looks like December $50 silver is in the cards!

Mariposa de Oro SilverFocker
Sep 15, 2012 - 1:12pm


Count me in SilverFocker! I bought a generator, brewed up two batches, and asked a hospital lab tech friend to test the CS on various pathogens. It didn't work a lick! I'm wondering whatzup....

Sep 15, 2012 - 1:13pm

QE3 : Halloween came a little early this year

Here ya' go...if you wanted to be pelted with eggs or insulted all night long then here's the mask for you.

Sep 15, 2012 - 1:13pm

Colloidal Silver !

I get all the colloidal silver I need scraping the egg yolk off my sterling silver fork with my teeth ! Spend, spend, spend ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Dancing With The Resourceful People

Awesomeness SilverFocker
Sep 15, 2012 - 1:17pm

Forum for Colloidal Silver

SilverFocker you set up a forum and I'll add what I can, been using it for a couple years now. Colloidal silver and silver medical devices (for surgery and what not) are coming and will be very effective, as long as the PTB don't try to shut them down.

Sep 15, 2012 - 1:23pm

Prevent yeast infections !

Get your girlfriend a sterling silver IUD ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Science In The Pubic Interest

Sep 15, 2012 - 1:25pm

Ne Shorts

Maybe it's just the non-commercial positions that comprise 'gross shorts' and 'gross longs'? Using that, I see 1.76:1 on 5/29... Which is close o Turds reported 1.77:1....

Still not sure.

thurd aye
Sep 15, 2012 - 1:27pm

CAFitts The Looting of America

Video unavailable
Thieving Corp.
Sep 15, 2012 - 1:32pm

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